NFL Week 15 picks for the (many) backup QBs
It's the Hard Knock(s) life.
In general, I’m not a fan of reality TV. I understand the appeal of guilty pleasures, but I feel a lot of reality shows are actually pretty harmful because they reward those who will do or say outrageous things with the attention they so desperately crave. And gee, I wonder if there are people like that in politics or tech who are polluting our society?!
Don’t worry, I’m not here to deliver my thesis for how the rise of reality TV ushered in an era that has vaulted vapid narcissists into powerful positions. Instead, I wanted to briefly talk about the one reality/documentary show I do watch, at least since I started covering the NFL on a full-time basis: Hard Knocks.
I’ve been dutifully watching along — I might be one of a very few — as the in-season version of the show follows the Cardinals. It’s been fairly depressing, though, and that was before Kyler Murray tore his ACL last week. I dreaded watching this week’s episode because I was worried the cameras would be intrusive in the moments after his injury.
Thankfully, they didn’t invade his privacy too much. We only saw a glimpse of Murray’s devastation as the cart brought him into the locker room, and that was more than enough for me.
Earlier in the episode, DeAndre Hopkins summed up the reason I watch Hard Knocks and why it’s different from most other reality shows: “People see me as an athlete, they see me as a robot, but it’s real life.”
Too often I see fans — of every team in every sport — forget that the athletes they cheer for, make fun of, and harshly criticize are people, with feelings and complexities that come with being human. This might be their job, but it’s not who they are.
So to me, Hard Knocks is a way to get to know the men underneath those helmets a little better. I mean, where else are we going to see Hopkins and Bill Belichick tell each other “I love you,” two different times?!?
The rest of the season, the Cardinals will be rolling with backup Colt McCoy, one of several teams forced to turn to their second- or third-string quarterback. The 49ers, who clinched the NFC West on Thursday night with Brock Purdy, have managed just fine without their starting quarterback(s).
Other teams won’t be as lucky in Week 15. For my picks, I’m going to highlight the teams that are starting a backup QB this week, either because of injury or performance*. But first, let’s look at the latest odds, as of Friday afternoon, from DraftKings (the favored team is in bold):
Colts at Vikings (-3.5)
Ravens at Browns (-2.5)
Dolphins at Bills (-7)
Eagles at Bears (+8.5)
Cowboys at Jaguars (+4)
Chiefs at Texans (+14)
Lions at Jets (+1)
Steelers at Panthers (-3)
Falcons at Saints (-4)
Patriots at Raiders (-1.5)
Cardinals at Broncos (-1.5)
Bengals at Buccaneers (+3.5)
Titans at Chargers (-3)
Giants at Commanders (-5)
Rams at Packers (-7)
And as always, if you’re looking for picks for every Week 15 game, Christian can help you out at FTW.
*Quick note: I did not include Taylor Heinicke as a backup, since he’s started seven games, and Carson Wentz is off IR and listed as the QB2.
The backup loses
It won’t be pretty: Browns over Ravens
Last week, the Ravens finally broke their losing streak in games without Lamar Jackson. In December of 2021, Jackson was injured early in a showdown with the Browns and didn’t play the rest of the season. Baltimore lost that Week 14 matchup — and the four after that.
The Ravens held off the Steelers a week ago, even with Jackson sitting out due to a knee injury and backup Tyler Huntley leaving in the third quarter after suffering a concussion. The 16-14 game wasn’t very watchable, but it kept the Ravens on top of the AFC North. For now, anyway. Maybe not after this weekend.
Earlier this season, the Ravens sneaked by the Browns in Baltimore, and I think the Browns can return the favor on Saturday in Cleveland. With Jackson still out, the Ravens will lean heavily on their run game to keep it close, but a big defensive play from the Browns could be what decides this (probably ugly) rematch.
One of Sunday’s biggest (?!) games: Lions over Jets
Before the season began, I never would’ve guessed that Lions vs. Jets would be one of the must-watch games of Week 15 — or any week. But whaddaya know, both teams have exceeded expectations and are just outside of the playoff picture, setting up a pivotal clash on Sunday that could go either way.
The Jets are 1-2 since demoting Zach Wilson and elevating Mike White to the lineup. The offense has been better with White, despite the two straight losses. However, they have to go back to Wilson, now the backup, due to White’s rib injury.
The Lions have won two straight, and five of their last six contests. The offense in particular has been on a tear; Detroit has already tied a franchise record with seven 30+ points games this season, and Jared Goff is enjoying the best stretch of his career with the Lions:
Still, the Jets have the kind of formidable defense that can slow Goff and Co. down, especially given Robert Saleh’s familiarity with Goff. In 2019-20 — Goff’s final two seasons in LA and Saleh’s final two seasons as the 49ers’ DC — Goff’s least productive performances came against Saleh’s defenses.
Although I don’t think Goff will completely stink it up against the Jets, I would not be surprised to see him struggle a bit and throw his first interception in more than a month. I was all set to pick the Jets until it was announced that White would be out (after the buzzy and triumphant finale of The White Lotus, I’m not about to doubt anyone named Mike White right now).
I’m just not sure what to expect from Wilson. The last time he faced a “prove it” game, he withered against the Patriots. I’m not optimistic about his chances for a bounce back against the Lions’ resurgent pass rush, not after the Jets’ OL almost got White killed a week ago.
Ridder me this: Saints over Falcons
I don’t consider Andy Dalton as the backup, since he’s started 10 games for the Saints this year and is still QB1 despite Jameis Winston supposedly being healthy.
Dalton wasn’t under center when the Saints handed the Falcons a gut-punch loss in Week 1. Neither was Desmond Ridder, who will be making his first NFL start this weekend in New Orleans.
Ridder will be replacing Marcus Mariota, who was benched and is also injured and away from the team because … of his knee issue? He and his wife had a baby? He’s upset with the team? I have no idea. The entire situation is confusing.
While the Saints may also be a mess, their defense remains capable enough that it can make things difficult for Ridder in his debut. I *think* so, anyway. What I *know* is that all season, Falcons fans have been begging for the rookie Ridder to see some action.
Now that he’s getting that chance, it would be very Falcons-esque for the outcome to go against them, not for them.
Are you ready for some cold football: Packers over Rams
Surprise, it’ll be frigid in Green Bay in December. But yeah, the forecast for Monday Night Football looks pretty miserable, especially for a team coming from LA.
Baker Mayfield is expected to start his first game for the Rams after his improbable comeback last week, when he had joined the team just two days prior. So what will Mayfield do for an encore, now that he’s had days — plural! — to practice with the Rams?
Well, I don’t believe the sequel will live up to the original, not only because of the weather and not only because Mayfield tends to be, no pun intended, hot and cold. Sean McVay is 0-2 against his BFF, Matt LaFleur, and both of those losses came at Lambeau. McVay usually doesn’t bring his “A” game when he’s going up against coaches who know him the best, as we’ve seen when he faces off with Kyle Shanahan.
For that reason, and Mayfield likely turning back into a pumpkin, I’m taking the Packers at home in the Frozen Tundra.
The backup wins and loses?
QB carouselling: Steelers over Panthers
I don’t know who will be starting for the Steelers on Sunday. Only Mike Tomlin does. As of right now, Kenny Pickett is still in concussion protocol and is doubtful to play. His backup last week was Mitchell Trubisky, who threw three interceptions in a two-point loss to the Ravens. At least one teammate wants Mason Rudolph to get a shot.
Regardless of who gets the nod on Sunday, I’m leaning toward the Steelers in a slight upset over another team that has juggled three quarterbacks this year.
Somehow, Carolina is still in the mix in the NFC South. Depending on what happens with the Bucs on Sunday (they’re underdogs against the Bengals), the Panthers could take the lead in the division with a win over Pittsburgh.
The Panthers are undefeated since Sam Darnold, a former starter-turned-backup, re-entered the starting lineup two games ago. Yet Darnold has been so streaky throughout his career that I can’t help but feel he’s due for a bad performance. Maybe not so bad that the Panthers will go back to P.J. Walker, but I don’t particularly trust Darnold in what could be a critical matchup.
Nobody asked for this: Cardinals over Broncos
This season just keeps getting worse for the Cardinals, on and off the field. As poorly as Russell Wilson has played this season, I would’ve picked the Broncos had Wilson been cleared for Sunday’s matchup. Last week, Wilson was putting together his most productive game in Denver as the Broncos were threatening the Chiefs, until he left in the fourth quarter with a concussion.
Wilson will sit out against the Cardinals, giving Brett Rypien his second start of the season. In his earlier start, Rypien played worse than Wilson has this year, which doesn’t bode well for his meeting with J.J. Watt and crew. Colt McCoy, 1-1 as a starter in 2022, had this week to prepare and has more weapons to help him out than Rypien. So I suppose I’ll go with the Cardinals. But it could just be wishful thinking that next week’s episode of Hard Knocks won’t be a total gloomfest.