NFL Week 17: Mostly the same old
It's a new year, but many of the same teams are headed back to the playoffs.
Last week, I found myself, as we all sometimes do, in an internet rabbit hole. This time, I was reading the synopsis of the Harvey Keitel movie Smoke, which I had never heard of until I inadvertently stumbled on a mention of it.
Its Wikipedia page notes that a VHS tape is in the background of a scene in the original Scream, which I have seen, though it’s been quite a few years. In an attempt to refresh my memory of a minor plot point — who hosted the party in the climax of the movie (it was Stu) — I ended up spending at least 30 minutes reading about the entire film franchise.
One of the tropes that Scream uses, and horror movies in general frequently use, is that the villain is never dead the first time. They always pop up at least one more time, or until someone finally aims for the head.
Unfortunately, that continues to describe a few teams in the NFL. Last year, we were stuck with Ben Roethlisberger’s decrepit carcass crawling into the playoffs. This year, at least one and as many as three squads could return to the postseason that don’t really deserve to be there, IMO.
In that sense, this Sunday was kind of a bummer around the NFL. In other ways too, like the Cardinals losing at the last second again, the Raiders blowing their fifth double-digit halftime lead this season, the Jets extending their playoff drought to 12 years, and the Broncos hanging with the Chiefs and ultimately falling to them for the 15th straight time.
Even if I’m underwhelmed by the start of 2023, I don’t want to be too much of a downer in my first newsletter of the new year. So after I gripe a bit about this week’s disappointments, I’ll be sure to save room for a little celebration, too.
Why won’t you just go away
One of the best attributes of the NFL is its parity. So why are we saddled with so many of the same playoff teams each year? It’s fine when they play exciting football and reward us with instant classics like last year’s Divisional Round.
But I do not have hope that any of the four teams below can deliver anything resembling fun this year.
The Buccaneers won the worst division in the NFL
When I say the Bucs don’t deserve to be in the playoffs, I’m really talking about the entire NFC South. But they did earn their berth by being the least terrible team in the division, so I can’t complain too much that they’re NFC South champs again. Still, it’s a bit annoying, isn’t it, that Tom Brady’s and his underperforming Buccaneers stumbled their way back to the postseason.
I don’t know if Tampa has had a complete game all season. Maaaaybe in Week 1 against the Cowboys, but the offense wasn’t particularly smooth in that 19-3 win. Or all season. Brady has recorded some of the worst numbers of his career this year, with a personal low in touchdown percentage and QBR entering Week 17.
After rallying to edge the Cardinals in overtime last week, the Bucs found themselves down 14-0 in the first half to the Panthers this week and then 21-10 at the start of the fourth quarter. They had already lost 21-3 to Carolina, who started backup PJ Walker in that one, earlier this season. But this time, the Panthers were without star cornerback Jaycee Horn. That was the key to reigniting the Brady-Mike Evans connection:
Evans scored three long touchdowns — his first trips to the end zone since Week 4 — for an eye-popping stat line: 10 catches for 207 yards and the three scores.
The Panthers were still in the game late, however. Down by just three with 2:32 remaining, Sam Darnold was sacked and fumbled deep in Carolina territory. Two plays later, the Bucs got into the end zone and basically put the game, and the division, away. It was Tampa’s third win this season when trailing by double digits in the fourth quarter. If any of those had gone the other way, we could’ve been spared another Brady postseason appearance. Alas.
With one week left in the season, the Bucs will finish, at best, with a 9-8 record and at worst, with an 8-9 record. Yet Tampa will still host a playoff game!
The Packers are a win away from the playoffs, ugh
At the end of November, the Packers were 4-8 and Aaron Rodgers was dealing with both a rib and thumb injury. Their chance at making the playoffs was about 2 percent. It seemed like, at long last, we would be free of Rodgers’ smug face and this chore-to-watch team this postseason.
Now they’re the favorites to claim the final wild card spot in the NFC.
Of course things would fall into place for them. Some of it is their own doing: The Pack have reeled off four straight wins, including one against the NFC North champs. Some of it has been outside of their control, such as last week when their wild card competition all lost, leading to Rodgers’ extremely self-satisfied postgame interview.
This week, Green Bay needed to beat the Vikings at home to stay in the playoff hunt. A loss, coupled with the Lions’ win earlier in the day, would have knocked the Packers out of contention.
The Vikings had the opportunity to do what they did the last time these two rivals met: Take a lead and never look back. Instead, they did the opposite. After blocking a punt and recovering the ball at the Green Bay 1-yard line, Minnesota couldn’t punch it in and settled for a field goal. Immediately after that, this happened:
Followed shortly by this improbable pick-six:
Both scores were part of the Packers’ 41-point run, keeping the Vikings’ season-long tradition of only losing in blowouts alive. Green Bay will once again host a divisional rival next week: the Lions, who haven’t won in Lambeau since the final week of 2018 when Rodgers exited in the first half with a concussion.
If the Packers win, they’re in. And despite my overall irritation with Rodgers, he’s not wrong here:
If the Lions win, they’re maybe in (depending on what happens with the Seahawks). The Lions took down GB once this season, but does anyone — Detroit fans most of all — trust them to actually do it with so much at stake?
The Patriots or Steelers could steal a wild card spot (again!)
The final spot in the AFC will probably come down to two teams that stunk it up in the postseason last year (Patriots, Steelers) and another that hasn’t been there since 2016 (Dolphins). If you’re hoping that Miami can infuse some new blood — with an offense that can score points — then I’d say temper your expectations. The Dolphins have now dropped five in a row and might be forced to start third-stringer Skylar Thompson at quarterback next week.
The Patriots are still in the race, despite a couple of recent late-game blunders, because of their defense and special teams. One of those units seem to score a touchdown each week while New England’s offense putters around. This Sunday, that touchdown came on Kyle Dugger’s pick-six, which gave the Pats the lead and injured backup Teddy Bridgewater in the process:
The Patriots have the toughest season finale of all three teams: They have to go on the road to face Buffalo, who may or may not have the No. 1 seed on the line. The Bills should know the deal before kickoff — it depends on what happens in their Monday night showdown against the Bengals, as well as the Chiefs’ final game on Saturday. If the Bills have nothing to play for, though, there’s a chance they’d rest their starters against New England.
The Steelers’ ability to hang on for dear life remains, even post-Ben Roethlisberger. I guess Mike Tomlin is a good coach or something? Anyway, they have the most complicated path to a playoff spot, but all of it is quite plausible: The Steelers need to beat the Browns, then hope the Patriots lose to the Bills and the Dolphins lose to the Jets.
While the Steelers are more palatable without Big Ben, they’re not any more watchable. This week on Sunday Night Football, Cris Collinsworth made a comment that every Ravens-Steelers matchup seems to have a 13-9 score, and even if it’s not factually correct, it feels right. And not just Pittsburgh’s clashes with Baltimore — all of Pittsburgh’s games.
Collinsworth said that before the Steelers’ lone touchdown drive (the final was 16-13), which for the second week in a row came in the final minute:
It was an impressive play from Kenny Pickett, who should maybe try playing as if every moment was a two-minute drill. It was also a bit lucky too, in the sense that the Ravens hadn’t allowed a touchdown at home in 15 quarters. This was also Pittsburgh’s first win of the season after trailing by double digits, though Baltimore is apt to blow fourth-quarter leads.
Even if the Steelers don’t punch their playoff ticket, they can still keep Tomlin’s streak of non-losing seasons intact with a win or tie next week. Personally, I’m hoping for the tie.
Welcome to the party, pal
In the past decade, every franchise except one has played in the postseason (sorry Jets). After that, the longest active playoff drought belongs to the Broncos (six years).
Three teams entered the season with five-year postseason-less streaks. One has already ended their skid, while the other two, the Dolphins and Lions, can do the same next week (even if, as I mentioned before, it’s less likely). So can one veteran quarterback who has never appeared in a playoff game.
The Giants ensure that one NYC team will be playing meaningful football in January
The Giants got off to an unexpectedly hot 7-2 start, only to cool off significantly around Thanksgiving time. They went four straight weeks without a win and then faced a pivotal rematch with the Commanders. Their much-needed victory that week greatly improved their playoff chances.
Still, the Giants hadn’t clinched a berth coming into Week 17. To do so, they would have to take down a messy Colts team at home, which seemed like a gimme win.
And it was! But hey, the Giants needed to show up and they did, in all three phases. Daniel Jones in particular answered the call, with two touchdown passes and two touchdown runs:
While it’ll be Jones’ and Saquon Barkley’s first trip to the playoffs, coach Brian Daboll has been there before: as Buffalo’s offensive coordinator and a bunch of times as a position coach in New England. Perhaps his experience will help once the Wild Card Round begins. The Giants will be underdogs no matter which opponent they draw, but they’ve already defied expectations once before — by getting to the playoffs in the first place.
Geno Smith’s revenge tour is a success
Geno Smith has been in the league for 10 years but has yet to take a snap in the postseason. That makes sense considering he began his career with the Jets. Although Smith was a backup on a couple playoff teams (2018 Chargers, 2019-20 Seahawks), he stayed on the bench for those games.
That will not be the case if the Seahawks can sneak into the postseason this year, which remains a possibility after Smith ended the Jets’ playoff hopes on Sunday. With another efficient performance, Smith finished this season a perfect 3-for-3 against his former teams, completing 68 percent of his passes for 605 yards, 6 TDs, 1 INT, and posting a passer rating of 104.2.
Seattle closes out its season against the Rams at home. A month ago, Smith engineered a last-minute game-winning drive to top the Rams in LA. If he can lead the Seahawks to another win, last minute or not, over their rivals, then Smith might get his shot at the postseason. And it’s easy to root for him to get that chance:
But he needs some help from the Lions to make that happen, so well, maybe don’t hold your breath.