Friendly NFL debates you can have on Thanksgiving
Why argue about politics when you can argue about football? Plus, our picks for the three-game Thanksgiving slate.
There are generally two types of adults at a family Thanksgiving: the ones who demand “no politics!” and the ones who are ready to throw down at the first mention of any current event.
I’m the latter, though I haven’t had much experience with political debates over some turkey and pumpkin pie. Most of my Thanksgivings have been small gatherings. When I was growing up, it was often just my mom, brother, and me for the holiday, and I can’t say 10-year-old me was politically minded. Nowadays, when the three of us discuss anything in the news, we just agree with each other while getting mad about all the dummies out there.
But I also know what it’s like to have relatives who are on the other end of the political spectrum, so I understand if you want to stay away from those topics on Thursday. The idea of explaining what inflation is, who really controls gas prices, and how the supply chain works — and how all of these issues are the direct result of a pandemic we’re still in — does not sound particularly appealing to me, anyway.
Thankfully, no pun intended, we have football. The NFL can serve as a distraction with its three-game Thanksgiving slate, and when halftime rolls around or everyone quickly grows weary of whatever abomination the Lions and Bears put on, the subject doesn’t need to move away from football.
Sure, you could stick with the same old tired discussions that we somehow resurface every four months or so, like “Is Eli Manning a Hall of Famer” or “Is Tom Brady the greatest ever?” But no one really wants that. Instead, we’ve got a few new NFL topics you can debate — and unlike in politics, there’s no right or wrong answer.
Who has the best chance at the No. 1 seed in the AFC?
Right now, the team atop the AFC is the one that just lost to the Texans. The No. 2 seed plays by the skin of their teeth each week, producing five come-from-behind wins already this season. The No. 3 seed started off at 2-5, with those early victories coming against the Texans and Jets.
Despite their ungodly amount of injuries and ugly loss to the Texans, the Titans have the best odds at the first-round bye, thanks in part to having the easiest schedule remaining in the conference (per FPI).
But who would overtake them if they stumble more? Can the Ravens keep eking out close wins? Can the red-hot Patriots keep their momentum going against tougher competition? Are the Chiefs really back to being the Chiefs? Will the Bills ever get on track?
No one knows what to make of the wide-open AFC playoff picture, but sometimes those are the debates that are the most fun to have.
Is Mac Jones already near his ceiling?
There’s no denying that Mac Jones has been the best rookie quarterback so far this season. That’s also hardly a surprise to any draftniks out there. The pre-draft consensus on Jones was that he was a high-floor, low-ceiling prospect who could manage games well but probably wasn’t going to win them for you either.
That’s pretty much how Jones’ rookie season has gone, though his stats during the Patriots’ current five-game winning streak have been among the best of any quarterback in the league. That wasn’t really expected.
On the one hand, Jones was drafted into a more favorable situation than any of his fellow first-round passers: the most successful franchise of the last 20 years, the GOAT as his coach, a smart offensive coordinator, and solid talent surrounding him. The Patriots aren’t asking Jones to do too much in a run-first offense, and they’re putting him in position to excel. On the other hand, even if he’s not tasked with making super difficult throws, he is completing them at a high clip and he’s not exactly relying on All-Pro targets (New England’s leader in receiving yards is Kendrick Bourne).
The rest of his 2021 class can, in theory, improve leaps and bounds with better coaching, injury luck, and playmakers. But how much can Jones himself improve, or is this more or less who he will be in the NFL? The next month could be telling — that’s when the competition will ramp up for the Patriots.
No matter what you may think, let’s all agree on one point: Please stop with the Tom Brady comparisons.
Where will Aaron Rodgers and Russell Wilson play next year?
There was drama in Seattle and Green Bay this past offseason when rumors surfaced that Russell Wilson and Aaron Rodgers each wanted to be traded. To no surprise, neither quarterback went anywhere, but it felt like, as with a couple who stays together for the kids, a divorce was coming eventually.
Will that split happen after this season? The Seahawks’ lost season raises questions about what their plan should be going forward: start a rebuild or fix their holes and bounce back next year. If Wilson continues to be unhappy with the changes (or lack thereof) that are being made by the top brass, he might be once again looking for a new team — much more seriously this time. And plenty of other fanbases would welcome him with open arms:
Coming into the season, Rodgers’ future with the Packers appeared much dicier than Wilson’s with the Seahawks. But the Packers are one of the top teams in the NFL and will be headed back to the playoffs. Would another Super Bowl trip make Rodgers more or less likely to stick around?
The Green Bay front office pissed him off at some point in time, though, and Rodgers has never let anything go, ever, like the NFL’s version of Taylor Swift. And despite him peddling vaccine misinformation and his lax mask wearing, many teams would jump at the chance to land the reigning league MVP.
Which quarterback would you rather have if your team is trailing with a minute left: Lamar Jackson or Justin Herbert?
This season, the two quarterbacks who have engineered the most game-winning drives are Justin Herbert (5) and Lamar Jackson (4).
Herbert has the same number of career fourth-quarterback comebacks (6) and game-winning drives (8) as Jackson, despite playing in 20 fewer games. And he did that with the normally cursed Chargers!
Of course, Jackson hasn’t had to rally his team as often because the Ravens don’t blow huge leads on the regular like the Chargers.
Jackson is a dual threat who has consistently burned teams with his legs, but his skills as a passer are overlooked. Herbert has the stronger arm but is a better runner than he’s often given credit for, at least before Sunday night:
Jackson is more experienced and has an MVP award to his name. Herbert turns the ball over less. Neither one is even 25 years old yet, which means they can keep dazzling us with game-winning drives for a long time.
Based on their careers, which quarterback would you rather have as your starter: Jimmy Garoppolo or Baker Mayfield?
If we debated Jimmy Garoppolo vs. Baker Mayfield based on just the last few weeks, it wouldn’t be a discussion. This has been Garoppolo:
And this has been Mayfield:
In fairness to Mayfield, he’s been incredibly banged up, as have most of his weapons. He’s also just a few weeks removed from his best game of the season, when he threw two touchdown passes, didn’t turn the ball over, and posted a 132.6 passer rating in a blowout win over the Bengals.
Garoppolo was banged up earlier this year too, which isn’t unusual — he’s played a full season just once in his career, in 2019. That was also the year the 49ers went to the Super Bowl … and then lost, in large part, to Garoppolo not making plays in crunch time. Now, Garoppolo is healthy again and so is his favorite target, George Kittle. That’s not the only reason the 49ers have won three of their last four, but it’s certainly a factor.
While Mayfield hasn’t been to a Super Bowl (duh: he plays for the Browns), he has done what had been unheard of in the past 25 years: He led the Browns to a playoff win.
Neither is particularly capable of taking over a game. Rarely will they be the main reason for the win. They’re also not bad and have, at times, been good — just not consistently one way or the other to make a definitive statement on what kind of quarterback they are.
Is Jonathan Taylor currently the best running back in the NFL … a healthy Derrick Henry included?
Jonathan Taylor was already the NFL’s leading rusher before his star-making turn against the Bills, when he scored five touchdowns in a dominant performance. The dynamic runner also leads the league in rushing touchdowns (13) and yards from scrimmage (1,444), while ranking third with 5.8 yards per carry (behind Nick Chubb and Lamar Jackson).
So when Colts running backs coach Scottie Montgomery said Taylor is the best player he’s ever coached — a list that includes Antonio Brown and Hines Ward — it might not be hyperbole:
Taylor is second in rushing attempts, though, because Derrick Henry still has more than any other back, despite sitting out the last three games with a foot injury. It’s the first significant time the usually durable Henry has missed in his career. And the Titans simply can’t replace their workhorse, who took home the rushing crown in 2019 and 2020 and still ranks No. 1 in rushing yards per game this season:
Both are a threat to score every time they touch the ball, whether it’s as a runner or receiver. The same could be said for a couple other running backs in the league, such as Nick Chubb and Alvin Kamara. But it was Henry first and now Taylor who have received serious MVP consideration this year (yes, a running back and not a quarterback!).
At least at this moment, no running back is playing better than Taylor, but no running back has the CV — and ability to bowl opponents over and steal their souls — like Henry. Hopefully the latter returns this season and we can see both guys in action at the same time again.
Thanksgiving Day picks
Once again, the NFL is putting on a three-game showcase on Thanksgiving. Here’s a stat that would only happen in 2021, though: All six teams playing on Thursday are coming off a loss.
I don’t think you could be surprised about any outcome at this point. I’m leaning toward the favorites — Bears, Cowboys, and Bills — and don’t feel overly confident in any of them. But here’s how I would rank the potential upsets, based on likelihood of happening:
1. Bears vs. Lions: I thought the Lions could earn their first win of the season when they faced the Bears back in early October. The Bears won by double digits. This time, however, they’ll be without Justin Fields and Khalil Mack. Andy Dalton should be just fine against Detroit’s sad defense, but maybe the Bears players will want to fast-track Matt Nagy’s firing.
2. Bills vs. Saints: The Bills are looking to rebound after getting embarrassed by the Colts, but they’ll have to do so in the unfriendly confines of the Superdome and against a usually stout defense. The Saints’ chances of snapping their three-game losing streak would be greatly improved if Alvin Kamara returns, though that’s looking unlikely at this point.
3. Raiders vs. Cowboys: The Dallas offense struggled in its last outing against the Chiefs, while the defense shined. The Raiders are struggling on both sides of the ball, however. Dak Prescott will be without Amari Cooper again and maybe CeeDee Lamb, but the good news is that left tackle Tyron Smith will likely be back.
Enjoy the football and Happy Thanksgiving!