Week 11 picks that hopefully won't break our brains
Will our yips continue this week, or will we finally get back on track?
For the first time all season, we have playoff scenarios on the line this weekend. Well, kinda. Three teams — the Lions, Texans, and Jaguars — can be eliminated from title contention in their divisions.
The actual playoff picture will take a lot longer to resolve. When we entered Week 11, a whopping 14 teams — almost half the league! — was sitting at 5-6 wins, most of them in the AFC:
After the Patriots took care of business against the Falcons on Thursday night to improve to 7-4, that total is now 13. While Patriots-Falcons continued the NFL’s theme from last week of stinkfest games, the favored team did win, which hasn’t been super common lately.
So will the rest of Week 11 bring more of the same? Idk, but here are the odds for the 14 other contests, with the favorite in bold (odds are courtesy of DraftKings as of Thursday night):
Saints at Eagles (-2)
Dolphins at Jets (+3.5)
Washington at Panthers (-3)
Colts at Bills (-7)
Lions at Browns (-11)
49ers at Jaguars (+6.5)
Texans at Titans (-9.5)
Packers at Vikings (+1.5)
Ravens at Bears (+5)
Bengals at Raiders (+1)
Cardinals at Seahawks (+2)
Cowboys at Chiefs (-2.5)
Steelers at Chargers (-5.5)
Giants at Bucs (-10.5)
Our predictions have been off in recent weeks, but we’ll at least try to guess what will happen Sunday. As a reminder, we won’t be making picks for every game, but if you want our opinion about any matchup, you can leave us a comment and we’ll get back to you — and judging by last week, our advice will be terrible!
Sarah’s picks
Once again, my picks were pretty bad last week and once again, I’m trying to get back on track. I’m beginning to think that won’t ever happen! Right now, the only thing I can say with any certainty about this season is that we can’t be certain about anything. (I hope that made sense in writing and not just in my head.)
You should feel most confident in these picks
Lately, I’ve continued to biff it with this section, which speaks to both the anarchy of the season and my jinxing abilities.
For my first pick, I will try to harness my power for good by taking the Packers in their rivalry game against the Vikings. I do honestly think the Packers will win. The Green Bay defense has come on strong in recent weeks, and I think it can stymie Kirk Cousins and the Vikings. But I’m also convinced that the Packers will do anything to annoy me. For the last couple of seasons, I’ve found them to be an utter bore of a team to watch, and yet they won 13 games in each of 2019 and 2020 and currently hold the No. 1 seed in the NFC. Then with Aaron Rodgers’ “I’m a critical thinker” BS, I’m very much rooting against them … which probably means they’re going to keep winning.
And if I’m wrong?
I don’t care that much about the Titans one way or the other, but I keep expecting them to lose, especially after Derrick Henry’s injury … and they simply refuse. It seems like only a matter of time until the close wins catch up with them and they finally drop a game again. But it’s even more likely that their winning streak will extend to seven games after a date with the lowly Texans.
Finally, I’m feeling good about the 3-7 Dolphins because their quarterback is this guy:
And the 2-7 Jets are starting this guy:
NOT ELITE, Joe.
You should feel least confident in these picks
Earlier this week, I explained what the Raiders and Bengals need to do in the next few weeks to stay afloat in the playoff race. Both teams have played well at times this year, when their offense is clicking and the defense is getting after the opposing quarterback. And both teams have lost two in a row — first, embarrassingly enough, to a New York team and then in a blowout against a division rival.
The Bengals will be more rested, which you’d think would give them a slight advantage. The problem is they’ve been dreadful after their bye week in recent years. Will that trend hold up this year? I guess I’ll say no and lean toward the Bengals, though I just don’t have a good read on this matchup. It’s the biggest tossup of the week and could determine which path — contender or not — that each side will go down in the second half of the season.
I’ll never feel very confident in any NFC West showdown, and the health of both quarterbacks in Seahawks-Cardinals complicates matters. I expected Kyler Murray to play each of the last two weeks, and he didn’t. Russell Wilson returned last week and looked like he still needed more time to heal.
If Murray plays — he hints that he will, but I’ve heard that before — then I’d pick the Cardinals, whose defense is better in DVOA than the one that shut the Seahawks out last week. I’m not even all that certain about that, however. Seattle is the only opponent that Murray has a .500 record against in his career (2-2).
Both the Seahawks and Cardinals are coming off losses, while the Panthers and Washington are fresh off upset wins (the Panthers’ was against the Cards). On Sunday, Ron Rivera will coach on the opposite sideline in Carolina for the first time after he was fired almost two years ago. It’s only fitting that Rivera’s return coincides with Cam Newton’s first start of the season and first since he re-signed with the Panthers.
The atmosphere in Charlotte will be electric for Newton’s homecoming, and I think the Panthers will rise to the occasion, just as they did in Arizona. That said, no one knows Newton better than Rivera, and that includes Newton’s new coaching staff. In fact, Rivera admitted he’s kept an inventory of plays to use against his former quarterback. As good as Newton looked in his limited time last Sunday, he is still learning the new playbook and hasn’t played extensively since the preseason. While I expect a Carolina win, I also wouldn’t be shocked to see Rivera get a little revenge against the franchise that canned him.
Why these are potential upset picks
I screwed up last week by underestimating the Chiefs, who dominated the Raiders on Sunday night. And I’m going to do the same this week! This time, they face the Cowboys, who haven’t won a high-profile game like this one in a couple seasons. None of their victories last year were over playoff teams, and they only managed one such win in 2019 — it came against the Eagles, and later in the season when the NFC East was on the line, the Eagles got their revenge.
And yet, maybe against my better judgment, I’m going to choose to believe this Dallas team is built differently. Or, perhaps more so, I doubt that the Chiefs’ problems were miraculously solved when Raiders DC Gus Bradley decided to stay the course with single-high coverage all night.
The Cowboys probably already have a win over an eventual playoff team; it’s likely that at least one of the Chargers, Eagles, Panthers, or Patriots will make the postseason. Even if that’s not the case, the Cowboys can snag that signature victory on Sunday with their potent offense and improved defense — that is, if Dan Quinn, who comes from the Pete Carroll coaching tree like Bradley, uses more two-high coverage than usual.
Whether it turns into a shootout or not, this game will be won in the red zone. Neither defense is great in that regard, though the Cowboys are slightly better. On offense, however, the Cowboys have found much more success in the red zone — they rank No. 10 with a 64.7 percent conversion rate, while the Chiefs come in at No. 19 with 59 percent rate.
The Kansas City defense has been playing well lately, but I need more evidence to trust that it’s not a paper tiger. Sorry, but shutting down the Aaron Rodgers-less Packers and a Raiders offense that couldn’t get out of its own way doesn’t convince me. A win over Dallas might … but I’m still going with the Cowboys.
Last week, one of my few hits was correctly predicting the Eagles over the Broncos. I didn’t have much of a reason for making that pick, beyond “idk, vibes.” I kinda feel the same way this week, except I’m siding against the Eagles this time. The Saints still have an excellent defense, and if Alvin Kamara returns and Trevor Siemian keeps playing within the offense, then New Orleans is due for a win, especially after catching a few bad breaks lately.
Christian’s picks
Well, well, well, another week where I dare the Chiefs to make me look like an idiot. Last Sunday I backed the Raiders and their brand of chaos in Nevada, only to watch them beaten like the rented mule of a redheaded stepchild. Now they’ve got to welcome the Cowboys and their top-ranked scoring offense to Kansas City with no real indication their defensive problems have been fixed.
As such, I’m rolling with Dallas knowing full well 2021 Kansas City is the NFL’s version of Pitt Football — a team that exists solely to blow up in your face whether you’ve bet for or against them.
The Chiefs have broken my brain so badly it’s leaked into other parts of my routine. I’ve had a losing record in two of the past three weeks after having one the previous two years. I’m second-guessing everything because I’ve based my logic on the idea Kansas City is capable of anything, and now I’m questioning whether the real problem was my expectations all along and, like, what even are betting odds, you know? I’m inside my own head and I suck right now, and not even in an interesting way where you can fade me and make money off my stupid ideas. No, I’m just mediocre, which is the worst thing you can be when you’re making picks.
Alright, let’s pick a bunch of road wins and see if that provides the grip I need to pull my head out of my own ass.
Pick I like the most
(1-0 last week. 6-4 on the season)
Carolina Panthers (-175) over Washington Football Team
Cam Newton returns to Charlotte against a team primed for a letdown after stepping up to take down the Buccaneers last week. And he doesn’t have to worry about getting chased down by Chase Young, who is out for the remainder of the year with a torn ACL.
Sure, Ron Rivera can probably think of a few ways to contain the quarterback he coached throughout his entire first run as a Panther, but Washington’s defense has spent the bulk of 2021 underperforming. Taylor Heinicke has to stare down a defense that’s allowed fewer passing yards per game (174) than anyone else while ranking second in sack rate and third in QB pressure rate.
Newton’s return to his longtime home trumps Rivera’s. The logical and emotional components both side with Carolina, especially when you consider what a soft landing spot the former MVP has in facing the NFL’s 29th-ranked passing defense.
Pick I overthought, so you should probably fade it
(1-0 last week, 5-5 on the season)
Cincinnati Bengals (-117) over Las Vegas Raiders
Oh hey, speaking of inscrutable! Here come two teams who have no goddamn clue what their identity actually is.
Which team evokes more knee-jerk reactions based on recent results? The Bengals, who’ve marred a 5-2 start with losses to the Jets (horrible) and Browns (by 25!), or the Raiders, whose every brush with greatness is simply a ploy to drop them from higher and higher heights?
You can make a convincing argument for either side. What’s much more difficult is to pick a winner between two teams that had control over their postseason fates three weeks ago when they were 5-2 but now sit at 5-4 as fans, burned by decades of crappy performances, wonder how they were foolish enough to indulge in even the slightest bit of hope.
Cincinnati’s struggles have revolved around a once-explosive offense stuck in neutral as Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase try to rekindle the early-season fireworks that made the wideout a short-odds rookie of the year bet. A defense that punched above its weight class in the first quarter of the season has now allowed 30+ points and given up more than 420 yards per game in its last three outings. That, paired with nearly two turnovers per game, makes the Bengals extremely hard to trust.
Meanwhile, the homefield advantage that helped carry Vegas over Baltimore in Week 1 has faded into a passionate minority shouting against upper-level apathy. The Raiders spent Week 10 as the Chiefs’ get-right opponent, ceding control of the AFC West back to the team that’s won it five straight years. Derek Carr is passing for a ton of yards, but with a limited receiving corps, many of those have been empty calories as Las Vegas feels doomed to another year hovering around .500 without a playoff berth.
So how do you choose between these assembly lines of disappointment? They’re similarly frustrating defensively (Cincinnati ranks 20th in overall DVOA while Vegas is 23rd) and both lean heavily on low-efficiency running games that average less than four yards per carry.
That means the winner is probably going to come down to who can make the biggest play. That’s more of a Bengal specialty than a Derek Carr thing in 2021, so here’s rooting for Chase and a return to the 100+ yard days of mid-October.
Upset pick I like the most
(0-1 last week, 5-5 on the season)
We already talked about how I’m rolling with the Cowboys, which counts. Let’s pivot to an even bigger underdog who might be totally screwed, who knows.
Pittsburgh Steelers (+210) over the Los Angeles Chargers
The Steelers tied the Lions last week and apparently the coaching staff felt lucky to get that result. Holy shit, what am I doing here.
OK, OK. Let’s start with the caveat that if Ben Roethlisberger and T.J. Watt don’t play, this is a Chargers pick. Roethlisberger won’t change much for Pittsburgh’s passing game, but he does seem to provide an undefinable quality that manages to lift his offense in a way Mason Rudolph cannot. Even if he can’t go, the Chargers have the league’s worst rushing defense and the Steelers would be thrilled to just hand the ball to Najee Harris 50 times and call it a day. I can see a feasible scenario where Harris picks up big chunks of yardage, Big Ben cleans up on third-and-manageable, and a dominant time of possession keeps a smothering defense fresh en route to a win.
But, should Roethlisberger and Watt miss Sunday night’s game, let’s check in with my other upset pick.
New Orleans Saints (+110) over the Philadelphia Eagles
The Saints will have Alvin Kamara back, which greatly facilitates a Trevor Siemian offense against the league’s 20th-ranked rushing defense. On the other side of the ball, Jalen Hurts will have to navigate New Orleans, who ranks sixth in defensive DVOA and seventh in points allowed. Both teams are dealing with major losses — the Saints are without Jameis Winston and Michael Thomas, the Eagles without $50m+ in dead cap space — but New Orleans is better equipped to struggle through adversity than Philly, even on the road in eastern Pennsylvania.