How 5 playoff hopefuls can save their season
The next few weeks will be do-or-die time for several teams that are trying to get back on track. After that, we look ahead at Patriots-Falcons on Thursday night.
At this point in the season, the NFL is more wide open than in any other year in recent memory. We’ve passed the midseason point, and it’s hard to know what to make of most of the league. How many teams can we confidently say are good?
At least a few of the playoff hopefuls are on the right course. The Cardinals with Kyler Murray are Super Bowl contenders. So are the Packers with Aaron Rodgers, unfortunately for those of us who want to believe in karma. Despite a setback or two the last couple weeks, the Rams, Bucs, and Bills will be fine. The Cowboys shouldn’t have much trouble claiming the NFC East title. The Titans keep finding ways to win.
Even several bubble teams have seemed to figure out their identity. The Colts, Eagles, and Patriots each had one win in the first month of the season. Now, they’re in the postseason conversation.
Then there’s this logjam of inconsistent teams in the middle who are right in the thick of the playoff hunt but are also at a crossroads. For a handful of them, the next few games could make or break their season. Let’s take a look at five in particular and determine what they need to do over the next month to put themselves in position to make it to the postseason.
Cincinnati Bengals (5-4)
Next four games: at Raiders, vs. Steelers, vs. Chargers, vs. 49ers
What they need to do: Just a few weeks ago, the Bengals looked like the team to beat in the AFC North. They were the first opponent that truly slowed down the Ravens. After that impressive 41-17 win in Baltimore, the Cincinnati defense ranked No. 5 in DVOA, a huge improvement from their bottom-six unit the past few seasons.
Two losses later and that defense has fallen all the way to No. 20. The offense dropped a few spots as well, but it’s the other side of the ball that has seen the steepest decline — and can potentially rebound just as quickly. In a close loss to the Jets and a blowout against the Browns, the Bengals were credited with 25 total missed tackles and now rank in the bottom third of the league in that category. That’s especially a problem when the pass rush hasn’t been able to get to the quarterback as much as they were earlier in the season. Cincy recorded 19 sacks through its first seven games and just four in its last two.
Joe Burrow and the offense have had their own issues. Though the Bengals remain capable of generating explosive plays, they’ve been shooting themselves in the foot lately. Burrow is throwing too many interceptions, and Ja’Marr Chase has made a couple costly mistakes (four drops, one lost fumble) in those two losses after his electric start to the season.
Still, it’s the defense that most needs to get back to fundamentals. If the Bengals can get more pressure on opposing quarterbacks again and clean up their tackling, then they’ll stay relevant in the playoff race. If not, then their postseason hopes could be over even before their season ends with a Ravens-Chiefs-Browns gauntlet.
Cleveland Browns (5-5)
Next four games: vs. Lions, at Ravens, vs. Ravens, vs. Raiders
What they need to do: Last week, I referred to the Browns as a Jekyll and Hyde team, and perhaps Joel Bitonio is a Post Route reader because days later, he used that same term to characterize them. Or, more likely, it’s simply the only description that fits this indecipherable and frustrating squad.
One week, the Browns hand the Bengals their worst loss of the season — and worst in the rivalry in more than 30 years. The next week, they’re the ones getting blown out by a former child model and what had been the No. 21 offense in DVOA.
Baker Mayfield’s various injuries and his up-and-down play are certainly part of the reason Cleveland has been wildly unpredictable each week. The Browns have a decision to make on his future soon enough, but I don’t know that we can expect consistency from Mayfield this season. Luckily, they can win — and have won — without asking their quarterback to do too much. It starts with leaning heavily on their league-best rush game, which they did not do in New England. D’Ernest Johnson got off to a hot start on Cleveland’s first drive and then was largely ignored for the rest of the half. The good news for their ground attack is that Nick Chubb should be back this week and Kareem Hunt should come off IR soon.
The other part of the equation is the defense, which plummeted from No. 12 in DVOA after they stomped on the Bengals to No. 26 after they became the stompee in Foxborough. Like Mayfield and the team itself, the Cleveland defense has been all over the place. They’ve given up at least 33 points on four occasions this year (all losses) and 16 points or fewer in five games (4-1). They’re also 4-1 when they force at least one turnover but are one of the worst teams in the league at doing that. Their biggest issue, though, has been stepping up in key moments. The Browns rank No. 27 in red zone defense and only four teams allow a higher percentage of third-down conversions.
With a unit this talented, this defense should be better and can be if they follow the advice of their star player Myles Garrett: make more in-game adjustments.
Or, y’know, any. That would help slow down opposing offenses, create more turnovers, and take some of the pressure off Mayfield.
Like the Bengals, the Browns are running out of time to turn their season around. They end the year with a difficult three-game stretch against the Packers, Steelers, and Bengals. Unlike the Bengals, the Browns were supposed to be a Super Bowl contender — and at this point, the odds are against them to even make the playoffs.
Las Vegas Raiders (5-4)
Next four games: vs. Bengals, at Cowboys, vs. Washington, at Chiefs
What they need to do: In one sense, the Raiders have been here before: They put themselves into the playoff discussion at midseason, then promptly collapse. In another sense, the Raiders are in uncharted waters. In the span of one month, their coach was fired for using racist, homophobic, and misogynistic language in past emails; one 2020 first-round pick was released after killing a woman in a DUI crash; and another 2020 first-round pick was released for threatening someone with a gun on social media. That’s a lot to process for the players still on the team, and it’s not a surprise they’ve now dropped two in a row.
Even after an ugly butt-kicking courtesy of the Chiefs, Derek Carr believes that this Raiders team is built differently than those of the last few seasons:
To prove Carr right, the offense needs to get out of its own way. After turning the ball over a total of five times in their first seven games, the Raiders have coughed it up five times in just the last two weeks. Carr’s favorite target, Darren Waller, has been getting extra attention since Ruggs’ release, which has hurt the tight end’s productivity. DeSean Jackson can help with that, and give Carr another deep threat, once he gets more familiar with the offense … so long as he remembers where the end zone is and how you need to bring the ball there to score:
It’s too soon to panic about the Vegas defense, despite it getting roasted by a vintage Patrick Mahomes performance. The Raiders have been able to consistently pressure opposing quarterbacks, except for their outing against the Chiefs. Mahomes got the ball out quickly and was able to take advantage of Gus Bradley’s stubborn insistence on sticking with single-high coverage. Still, they have to face Mahomes one more time, and have dates with offenses that can rip off big plays, like the Bengals and Cowboys.
The Chiefs have a tenuous lead in the AFC West, which remains anyone’s for the taking. For now, that includes the Raiders, but they need to start winning again soon or else this season will feel like deja vu.
Los Angeles Chargers (5-4)
Next four games: vs. Steelers, at Broncos, at Bengals, vs. Giants
What they need to do: The Chargers got our hopes up with their 4-1 start to the season. Maybe this is the year they wouldn’t invent new ways to lose! Maybe they’d win the AFC West! Maybe Justin Herbert would take home MVP honors!
Since then, they’ve lost three of their last four. Even worse, two of those losses came against the Ravens and Patriots, teams the Chargers could be in competition with for an AFC playoff spot. Those three losses share something in common too: the opposing defenses have stifled Herbert. He did not throw for more than 223 yards or complete more than 59 percent of his passes in any of them. He threw at least one interception and posted a passer rating below 73 in each one. His best yards per throw number was 6.37 against the Patriots, almost a yard lower than his career average.
Herbert isn’t suddenly suffering from a sophomore slump. LA’s game plan just isn’t putting him in a position to succeed. Let him air it out, already! Doing so could also create more explosive plays, which the offense has lacked since the first part of the season.
The defense, which has been the worst in the league against the run, did hold the Vikings to 103 rushing yards on 3.1 yards per carry. However, their atrocious tackling — they lead the NFL with 76 missed tackles despite playing one fewer game than the teams right behind them — gave the Vikings more manageable down-and-distance situations, especially on their final drive to ice the game.
As Brandon Staley said, it comes down to execution. The Chargers haven’t been playing sound football in any phase during this slide. They have winnable games coming up that could help them clean up their issues and put them on the right path. They aren’t out of the AFC West race by any means; they’re 2-0 against division foes right now. But they need to show improvement in this next month to make us believe they’re not the same old cursed Chargers.
New Orleans Saints (5-4)
Next four games: at Eagles, vs. Bills, vs. Cowboys, at Jets
What they need to do: The Saints had a bittersweet Week 8. They upset Tom Brady and the Buccaneers, which put New Orleans back in the driver’s seat in the NFC South. However, they lost starting quarterback Jameis Winston for the rest of the season due to a torn ACL.
The Saints haven’t won a game without Winston as their starter, but backup Trevor Siemian isn’t to blame for those two losses, each of which came by a margin of two points. He’s put up respectable numbers in both outings, totaling 547 passing yards, four touchdowns, zero interceptions, and a 99.1 passer rating as a starter (he’s also taken five sacks). Those are the kind of quarterback stats that the Saints can work with — they’ve won the past few seasons with a steady if boring quarterback and a strong defense.
That could work this year too. The defense is still a top-10 unit, after all. It depends on a few factors, including whether Siemian can maintain this level of play. Some of their problems the last two weeks have been out of their control. Alvin Kamara, their No. 1 weapon, missed their last game with an injury, a huge loss for an offense that needs playmakers. Another weapon, Taysom Hill, has been back on the field but the Saints have been careful about how they use him after he suffered a concussion several weeks ago. Once both players are closer to full strength, this offense will be more of a threat.
Those injuries were bad luck, as was a terrible call that went against the Saints and potentially cost them the win last week. The Saints can point the fingers at themselves in other ways, though, like a kicker who missed two extra points, getting flagged for 19 penalties in the last two games, and Sean Payton’s decision to kick a field goal near the goal line.
The Saints may have given away two games but they can still salvage their season. They have a few challenging matchups on the horizon that could determine whether 2021 will end with another trip to the postseason, or whether they simply couldn’t overcome all their injury woes this time.
Thursday Night Football pick: Patriots vs. Falcons
Don’t worry, we won’t make any 28-3 jokes here … mostly because that would require the Falcons to score 28 points, a threshold they’ve only reached twice this season. (They did just score 3 points, though.)
As capricious as the Falcons can be, the Patriots have been like Johnny Unitas’ haircut — something you can set your watch to:
During their current four-game winning streak, the Patriots have scored at least 24 points and held opponents to 24 points or fewer each time. Their running game is rolling, Mac Jones keeps playing better, and the defense has figured out who they are.
This season has been so off the wall that it’s hard to have much confidence in any team against any opponent. But it’s a little easier when it’s the red-hot Patriots against the struggling Falcons. Famous last words this year, but we’re going with the favorite in this matchup.
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