Week 10 picks for what will probably be another wild NFL Sunday
Which team — or teams — will pull off the next huge upset?
Sheesh, what a last couple of weeks for anyone who dares make NFL game picks, huh? A double-digit underdog won in both Week 8 and Week 9, the latter of which caused Peyton Manning to apologize for what I am now forced to believe is a very real Manningcast curse:
But to become an official trend, we need to see a third similarly major upset this week. That would require one of three big-time favorites to crap the bed: either the Bills (again), Colts, or Cardinals. Let’s take a look at the Week 10 odds, courtesy of DraftKings as of Thursday night (the favored teams are in bold):
Bills at Jets (+11)
Bucs at Washington (+9.5)
Falcons at Cowboys (-8)
Saints at Titans (-2.5)
Jaguars at Colts (-10)
Lions at Steelers (-8)
Browns at Patriots (-2.5)
Vikings at Chargers (-3)
Panthers at Cardinals (-10.5)
Eagles at Broncos (-2.5)
Seahawks at Packers (-3)
Chiefs at Raiders (+2.5)
Rams at 49ers (+3.5)
Will the Jets, Jaguars, or Panthers pull off a shocker, or will the NFL decide to be normal (for once!) this weekend? Based on how Thursday Night Football went, it won’t be the latter.
Below, we’re going to talk about some of the games on tap, but first a reminder from last week: We will no longer be making picks for every contest. However, we will be breaking down the ones that stand out to us most. That said, if you’re curious about a specific matchup that we do not choose to single out, please leave us a comment at the Post Route and we’d be happy to give you feedback.
Sarah’s picks
So far, my experiment of only picking a handful of games rather than the entire week’s slate is working out well. Last week, I was able to find pleasure in what was an utterly strange Sunday in the NFL, even though I completely missed on the picks that I thought were slam dunks. Of course, it helped that I nailed my upsets.
I can’t promise the same will happen this week, but I’m just trying to enjoy this crazy season for what it is. Maybe the second half of the season will bring more stability to the league, or maybe this is just one of those years when the only thing you can expect in a given week is chaos.
You should feel most confident in these picks
Once again, Thursday Night Football has robbed me of a matchup that I would have included in this section. This time, however, I would have been very wrong. The Dolphins surprised the Ravens in a truly hideous primetime game that, at the very least, gave us this absolutely hilarious moment:
So Week 10 is already off to a bizarre start, which makes me reluctant to be confident in anyone.
Normally, I’d feel pretty certain about any double-digit favorites, but I’m a little gun-shy after the last couple weeks. Still, I don’t think you need to hesitate in trusting the Cardinals this week. Not only did they easily handle the 49ers last Sunday, despite being without Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins, but they’re also hosting a Panthers team forced to start P.J. Walker, at least until Cam Newton gets caught up with the new Carolina offense.
Backup quarterbacks (including the Cardinals’ Colt McCoy) have performed surprisingly well this season, and Walker does have a win in his only NFL start (vs. the Lions last year). In limited action this season, however, he has struggled — he completed just 3 of 14 passes for 33 yards and took three sacks after Sam Darnold got benched against the Giants. It’s a lot to ask Walker to go to Arizona and stun the No. 2 defense in DVOA, especially if the other side gets Murray back as expected.
The Buccaneers will head to Washington for a rematch against the opponent that gave them the most trouble in last year’s playoffs. I do not think history will repeat itself, except regarding the outcome. WFT’s defense has been a major disappointment this season — Football Outsiders rates it below Detroit’s — and it now has to face the league’s most efficient offense. Granted, Washington isn’t getting much help from its offense, which hasn’t scored more than 13 points in a month. It’s possible they can break that streak with a few offensive players expected to return to the lineup. The Bucs will still score more, though.
You should feel least confident in these picks
Honestly, I could put the Browns and Falcons in this section every week and it’d feel right. I can’t peg either of these teams down at all.
Was the Browns’ blowout win over the Bengals and breakup with OBJ a sign that they’ve turned the corner, or will they continue to be a Jekyll and Hyde team all year? How this week goes should give us a clear indication about which path they’re on. The Browns will visit New England, which has found its groove after winning four of its last five games … but is also just 1-4 at home.
I think this matchup all depends on the running back situations, both of which are currently up in the air. D’Ernest Johnson is the only Cleveland back who will for sure be active on Sunday; Nick Chubb is a question mark after a positive Covid test, but it’s still possible he plays. The Patriots could also be down two running backs — Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson are both in concussion protocol, and it’s looking doubtful they’ll be able to go. The way things are trending, I’m leaning the Browns in this one. Their ground game seems to work smoothly no matter who’s playing, while the New England defense is vulnerable against the run. Plus, Myles Garrett and the Cleveland defense can harass Mac Jones a lot more if he can’t rely on his top two running backs to take the pressure off him.
Then again, the Browns never do what I say they’re going to do.
The same goes for the Falcons. They’ve won three of their last four, but their usual fourth-quarter problems have reared their ugly head each time. That makes it difficult to trust that they’ve finally figured out a winning formula: “Just give Younghoe Koo enough time to make a game-winning kick” is working right now, but for how long?
The Cowboys are coming off an embarrassing loss to the Broncos, which could be an anomaly or it could mean they were overachieving before that. I like the Cowboys to bounce back, but the Falcons are an agent of chaos, so I can’t be too confident in that.
Speaking of chaos, Packers-Seahawks games are almost always high on drama. Russell Wilson will most likely return, which should put Green Bay on upset alert. A couple of key players for the Packers are questionable, including Aaron Rodgers. If he plays, Green Bay probably wins because he’s annoying like that. If not, Wilson and the Seahawks could get themselves back in the playoff conversation. As of right now, I’m picking the Packers, with the assumption that Rodgers is cleared.
Why these are potential upset picks
I’ve already explained why the Browns could win as an underdog this week. I’m tempted to take a more out-there upset, like the winless Lions over the thoroughly unimpressive Steelers. But I’ve learned my lesson about predicting a Lions win — I’ve got to just let it happen rather than trying to manifest it.
So instead, I’ll go against two slight favorites in the AFC West: the Chiefs and Broncos.
Last week, I thought the Raiders would get upset. They did. This week, I think they’ll upset the Chiefs. The Raiders will be back in Vegas and have a new deep threat for Derek Carr: DeSean Jackson, who could easily score this exact same touchdown against KC’s shaky defense:
During the 2020 regular season, the Raiders were the only team to beat the Chiefs with Patrick Mahomes in the lineup. In fact, they almost did it twice. That Kansas City squad looked destined for a Super Bowl run. This Kansas City squad isn’t even guaranteed to make the playoffs. We’re all waiting for offense to rediscover its dominant form, but I have my doubts it’ll happen against a pretty good Raiders pass rush.
I’m also calling for an Eagles win in Denver, for no real reason at all. The Eagles are usually competitive. The Broncos have won two in a row after losing four in a row after winning three in a row. I don’t think they even know what they are, and I can see them having a letdown after their big win over the Cowboys last week.
Christian’s picks
Welp, I am officially slumping. I’m on a two-week non-winning streak for the first time possibly ever. I called one upset in a slate full of them in Week 9 … and it was Jordan Love and the Packers. I suck.
Fortunately, I have learned nothing from that experience and am back with an incredibly chalky week. I’ve got the favorites in the vast majority of this week’s 13-game lineup. How can I take the Saints against a depleted Titans team when they couldn’t even beat the Falcons last week? Seahawks-Packers always promises shenanigans, but it’s also Aaron Rodgers’ “fuck you” game and there’s no way I can pick against that. Am I really supposed to think the Jets or Jaguars can build winning streaks?
So here goes another smooth-brained dive into the void in hopes I can snap a streak of my own. Let’s see what we’ve got.
Pick I like the most
Green Bay Packers (-180) over the Seattle Seahawks
Packers-Seahawks is a lowkey NFC rivalry that usully delivers. Sometimes it’s a call so bad it helps end a referee lockout. Sometimes Green Bay coughs up a 12-point lead in the final 2:10 of a playoff game. And sometimes the Packers win.
Not only do we get the next installment of a showdown between two playoff staples, we also get the Aaron Rodgers revenge game. Rodgers thrust himself into the spotlight thanks to being unrepentantly unvaccinated; this will be the first game he’s played since admitting his general practitioner and the guy who hosted Fear Factor were one and the same.
Rodgers feeds on disrespect, and there’s been a ton of that deservedly heaped upon him the past week-plus. Now he gets to face a bottom 10 passing defense and a head coach who’s been a thorn in his side exactly half the time these teams have met. This has all the makings of a 350-yard, three-touchdown day, possibly all to Davante Adams.
Even if Russell Wilson comes back healthy and angry, I don’t know if he’s any match for Aaron Rodgers after his ego has been dented.
Pick I overthought, so you should probably fade it
Tennessee Titans (-150) over New Orleans Saints
The Titans should not have won last week. They derailed the Rams and their world-beater offense on a night where they gained 194 total yards. Ryan Tannehill struggled without Derrick Henry in the backfield. Now he’s got to face the Saints and their third-ranked defense. I have little faith in the Tennessee offense.
BUT, the Titans are at home, where they’re undefeated since Week 1. They’re riding a five-game winning streak. And they get to face Trevor Siemian, who is Trevor Siemian. He may not be able to rely on Alvin Kamara as much as he typically would, since the Pro Bowl tailback is dealing with nagging injuries. All signs point to a slop fest.
That’s where Mike Vrabel teams shine, though typically it comes on the back of Henry running for 130 yards in the fourth quarter. The difference between the Saints’ win over the Buccaneers and their loss to the Falcons was turnover margin — they were +3 vs. Tampa Bay and -1 against Atlanta. That’s where Tennessee has thrived lately, and it could be all the difference on Sunday.
That said, I reserve the right to change this pick Sunday morning, so make sure you check back here later.
Upset pick I like the most
Las Vegas Raiders (+120) over Kansas City Chiefs
Vegas is impossible to figure out. It’s capable of beating the Ravens and Steelers and losing to the Giants and Bears. Derek Carr can look like a bonafide MVP candidate one week and be responsible for three times as many turnovers as touchdowns the next.
Kansas City, on the other hand, has been mostly the same team all season: a disappointing one. The Chiefs’ two-game winning streak was born of one-score victories over the Giants and Jordan Love’s Packers. Week 9 ended a seven-game turnover streak, which is good. It also came on the back of 237 total yards of offense, which is very, very bad for a Patrick Mahomes-led team.
So what do we know about Raiders-Chiefs? Vegas might be bad. Kansas City, based on nine weeks of experience, almost certainly will be. Throw in homefield advantage — where the Raiders are 3-1 and will almost certainly have their loudest crowd since opening night — and you’ve got enough to get me to back Carr over Mahomes.
Which is wild, but so is 2021.
Gonna be a tossup. I like the Chargers too just something about Cook being back and the. literal. need. to. win. Thanks!
Taking you up on your offer. What’s your take on the LAC/MIN game? Who you got and why? Thanks!