It's finally Week 9 picks time

It's been a looooong week in the NFL ... and there are still 13 games left to be played.

This has been a turbulent week in the NFL, even by NFL standards. Jameis Winston, Derrick Henry (probably), and Michael Thomas are out for the season. Odell Beckham Jr. and the Browns are going through a very ugly breakup. Aaron Rodgers has tested positive for Covid and is not vaccinated, and even if he didn’t *technically* lie about his status, he intentionally misled the public. The Packers could also be facing discipline for not following the proper protocols for unvaccinated players … or player, I should say, because I’m pretty sure it’s just Rodgers, who doesn’t seem to think the rules apply to him. 

And then the unspeakable tragedy of a young woman who died after Henry Ruggs III, who was excessively speeding and driving under the influence, crashed into her vehicle. Every new detail that has come out about the accident has been horrifying — many of which I wish I had never read — so I’m going to inelegantly transition to the next paragraph before we all start crying here. 

While all 14 games on the Week 9 slate will be played, there’s a heaviness surrounding the league as we head into the weekend.

This is normally where we would list our picks for each matchup, but we’ve decided to try a different approach that we hope will not disappoint any of our readers. The format for this weekly fixture will mostly stay the same. However, right here, we will be listing the odds for the rest of the matchups. Here’s a look at the 13 remaining games in Week 9, with the favorite in bold (odds as of Friday afternoon, courtesy of DraftKings):

Falcons at Saints (-6.5)

Broncos at Cowboys (-10)

Patriots at Panthers (+4)

Vikings at Ravens (-6)

Browns at Bengals (-2.5)

Bills at Jaguars (+14.5)

Texans at Dolphins (-5.5)

Raiders at Giants (+3)

Chargers at Eagles (+2)

Packers at Chiefs (-7.5)

Cardinals at 49ers (-2)

Titans at Rams (-7)

Bears at Steelers (-6)

Now let’s make some — emphasis on some — picks.

Sarah’s picks

First, an explanation: I will no longer be making picks for every game (at least until the playoffs). Although this feeling has been building up for a while now, I reached a point last week when I knew it was in my best interest to scale back a little. That point? When Tom Brady threw a pick-six that iced the game for the Saints, and I couldn’t even properly revel in his rare moment of mortality because I really needed the Bucs to win to try to salvage what was another horrible week for my predictions. 

The truth is that trying to pick a winner for every single NFL game has sapped my ability to simply sit around and enjoy watching football on Sunday. I get too caught up in my picking performance, and I wish I could simply not care or not second-guess every decision I made, but I’m not built that way. And the fact is, there’s no reason for me to stress myself out like this! I’m not getting paid for this and it’s supposed to be fun!

So for now, I will keep singling out which I think are the easiest and most difficult contests of the week, as well as the potential upsets. I’m just hoping that not having a weekly record by my name will let me feel less (entirely self-imposed!) pressure.

You should feel most confident in these picks

Last week, I made the mistake of thinking the Bengals were a sure bet. That’s my fault, for both overestimating them and underestimating Mike White. Who knew?

If I had written this section before Thursday night, I would have once gone against the Jets and expressed doubt in White’s ability to sustain his hot streak. I would’ve been right on both accounts, but perhaps only because White injured his forearm after throwing a touchdown pass that pulled the Jets even with the Colts in the first quarter.

There are two other games this week that I feel pretty good about, though I’m more confident in one than the other. 

First up is the Bills, who are big favorites over the Jaguars, as they should be. I know the Bills let the Dolphins hang around entirely too long last week. I’m also aware of the Manningcast curse — a phenomenon in which active NFL players who appear on Peyton and Eli’s Monday Night Football show go on to lose the following week. It should be noted that Josh Allen was their guest this past Monday. 

And yet, I’m not worried about the Bills. The Jaguars, after a bye week, looked more lifeless than they had in at least a month in a blowout loss to the Geno Smith-led Seahawks. I think the surprisingly tough challenge last Sunday was a bit of a wakeup for Buffalo, and Allen and Co. will give more of an effort in Jacksonville against an even worse Florida team. And if not, then well, maybe curses are real!

I’m not quite as high on the Rams over the Titans, simply because the latter is too unpredictable. Losing Derrick Henry is — understatement alert — a huge deal. Even though his production dipped the past two weeks (he averaged under 3 yards per carry in wins over the Chiefs and Colts), defenses have to devote considerable resources to stopping him. No other running back on the planet puts as much fear into a defense as Henry. While Jeremy McNichols and geriatric-in-football-years Adrian Peterson might be able to find some success against the Rams’ mediocre run defense, they can’t compare to even the threat of Henry. Plus, whether Von Miller plays or not, I think the Rams will be ready to show the rest of the league that their all-in approach is very real and very scary.

You should feel least confident in these picks

When I first saw the news that Aaron Rodgers would miss the Chiefs game, two thoughts immediately sprung to mind: 1)  ugh, this guy and 2) well, I guess the Chiefs are winning. The Packers upset the Cardinals last week even without Rodgers’ top three receivers, but could they really pull off a similar feat minus the reigning MVP?

I would still pick Kansas City to win, but I’m much less certain now that I’ve sat with it a little longer. Not only have the Chiefs been garbage on both sides of the ball lately — they only barely got by the Giants at home to get back to .500 — but backup quarterbacks have been on fire in the last couple weeks. Mike White, Cooper Rush, and Case Keenum have all earned wins as starters, while Trevor Siemian came off the bench to guide the Saints over the Bucs. Who’s to say Jordan Love, who has appeared in just two regular season games in his career, can’t do the same … especially against Daniel Sorensen? 

What I want most, though, is for Love to ball out and the Packers to lose, eventually costing them the No. 1 seed in the NFC. Rodgers, meet consequences.

There’s more than just state pride on the line when the Browns visit the Bengals this Sunday. Both teams need to bounce back from a disappointing loss a week ago and help their standing in the AFC North. The Bengals, the Jets disaster notwithstanding, have been the better and healthier team as of late. Meanwhile, the Browns are giving off strong 2019 vibes.

I’m not ready to believe the Browns are in that rough of shape; Kevin Stefanski is, unlike Freddie Kitchens, a real head coach and can keep the team focused. I’m still leaning toward the Bengals, but a Browns win would prove that they’re not reverting to old habits. Either way, I think the result of this one will tell us more about the Browns than the Bengals. 

Finally, I’m a little surprised that I’m torn about the showdown between the one-win Texans and Dolphins. Both teams notched a victory in Week 1 and haven’t tasted success since. The Dolphins are a sizable home favorite, which makes sense because they are better than their record while the Texans are most certainly not. But Tyrod Taylor will be back, and the Texans have only looked sorta competent when he’s been under center. I’d take the Dolphins, yet I’m not as sure as I probably should be against a Texans opponent.

Why these are potential upset picks

I understand why the 49ers are slight home favorites over the Cardinals. Jimmy Garoppollo and the offense finally seemed to find their rhythm last week, George Kittle will be back in the lineup, and the 49ers played a tight one against the Cardinals in their first meeting less than a month ago — which was also Trey Lance’s first ever start. Oh, and Kyler Murray has been banged up and has missed practice this week. 

However, the 49ers have been a lot less trustworthy than the Cardinals this season. Even if it’s not a huge upset, I like the Cardinals to rebound here. Expect another close one either way.  

The Raiders, the offense in particular, have been rolling since Jon Gruden’s resignation. They’ve also had a tumultuous month, through no fault of the players who remain on the roster. They’re still human, though, and that takes a toll. The Giants play competitive football most weeks, even if that has only led to two wins so far this season. I think they can get win No. 3 on Sunday, and if that happens, let’s all agree to just give the Raiders a pass.

Christian’s picks

Well hey guys, this is awkward. Last week was my first losing season in a long time … and it happens to be the last full slate I’ll be putting out for a while. I’m partnering with the Pickwatch crew as one of their Pro pickers, which means my entire list of picks is getting paywalled. I don’t love the idea of hiding my picks, but I do love the idea of getting paid. 

That said, I’ll still throw some picks and their explanations here, much like before. Today, since I’m fighting off a cold and a toddler and outright exhausted, I’m pretty much just gonna copy what I wrote at FTW below.

Pick I like the most

Arizona Cardinals over the San Francisco 49ers

In a week without many toss-up games — only five games feature a favorite at lower odds than -200 — Cardinals-Niners stands out. Arizona was 7-0 and rolling through the NFC before A.J. Green’s disconnected controller in the end zone doomed it to a primetime loss. The 49ers are 3-4 and have only beaten the Eagles, Lions, and Bears.

The lack of support this week is likely tied to Arizona’s sparsely attended practices this week. Kyler Murray is nursing an ankle injury. DeAndre Hopkins is questionable with a bum hamstring. Green just landed on the COVID-19 list. Losing all those guys would swing this game in San Francisco’s favor, but getting Murray back — and he’s played through injury before — would be enough to get me back aboard the Cardinals’ hype train.

All signs point to Murray taking the field, even if he can’t practice. He told reporters Wednesday his bum wheel felt “good.” Even if he and his two top wideouts can’t play, Arizona’s defense remains intact against a 49ers team it held to just 10 points when these teams met in October. There are too many ways for the Cardinals to win this game for it to be a pick’em, even if they have to limp their way through each quarter.

Pick I overthought, so you should probably fade it

Cincinnati Bengals over the Cleveland Browns

Each team is coming off a loss as a favorite. The Browns couldn’t mount a comeback against the Steelers thanks, in part, to Baker Mayfield’s inability to make plays downfield. The Bengals lost to the Jets — in part due to a brutal helmet-to-helmet contact penalty, but also for committing the sin of letting passing god Mike White hang around.

Week 9 is a bounce-back opportunity for both and a vital showdown in the league’s most crowded division. Will Odell Beckham’s departure further damage Cleveland’s low-watt passing game? Can the Cincinnati defense recover from getting torched by a 2018 draftee who didn’t play in a meaningful NFL game until November 2021?

Man, I … don’t know. The Browns haven’t beaten anyone better than the Minnesota Vikings. The Bengals are capable of losing to the Bears and Jets. Ultimately, I rolled with homefield advantage and the side capable of doing the most with what it’s got. That’s Cincinnati, who briefly scraped the top of the AFC standings and still remains capable of dismantling some of the best teams in the league.

Upset pick I like the most

Green Bay Packers over Kansas City Chiefs

I know. I hear it too. It’s … not great.

But somewhere in the turmoil of the Packers losing players and the Chiefs falling to pieces, I began to have faith in Green Bay. A terrible Kansas City defense is the perfect place for Jordan Love to make his first NFL start. Andy Reid’s team struggles against the run, so a steady diet of handoffs to Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon will set up plenty of manageable third downs. The Chiefs’ pass rush isn’t strong enough to take advantage of Love’s happy feet in the pocket, though he’ll almost certainly throw at least one interception due to his penchant for back foot throws:

But Love plays well when he’s decisive, locking on to his first target and delivering darts downfield. Most of the time that will be Davante Adams, who I’m just not sure the Chiefs can stop. Kansas City has spent the bulk of the season underwhelming and was one Daniel Jones two-minute drill away from losing to the Giants in Week 8.

After waiting two months for that trend to stop, I’m finally picking against Mahomes. Which I’m sure will turn out great for me when he hits Tyreek Hill for his third touchdown of the day against a Jaire Alexander-less secondary.

The Rhode Island Scumbag Lock of the Week

Here’s a feature I’ve been testing out; a return to my roots by asking my loudest friends back home their stone cold picks of the week. It’s been … unsuccessful so far; these picks are 1-3. You know what that means: time to fade our nation’s smallest state.

Last week, the Patriots beat the then-4-2 Chargers despite a 51 percent completion rate from their rookie quarterback and fewer than four yards per carry — against the league’s worst rushing defense! — from their top running back. Let’s see how the good folks in Rhode Island are handling it:

Neat! Not an overreaction at all!

Let’s see what this week’s Rhode Island Scumbag League Lock of the Week is … it’s …

“Packers (+7.5). Chiefs can’t cover [expletive]. Jets +10.5. Indy is a fraud”

Oh.

Oh no.

Well, if I go down in flames thanks to Green Bay, at least I go with my Ocean State brethren. He’s already 0-1 on the week. Maybe he’ll regress back to .400 with me.