NFL Week 10: As the football world turns
This league is never short on theatrics, especially when the Bills go to OT.
Last week, I nailed every pick I made. This week? Almost the complete opposite.
But there is one prediction I was on the money about: Sunday was fun to watch and loaded with twists and turns. And I’m not just talking about the Vikings’ thrilling OT win over the Bills, though that game — the best of the 2022 season so far — was clearly the highlight of Week 10.
Eight of the day’s 12 matchups were one-score affairs, and two went to overtime. Five were decided by five points or fewer, one of which concluded with German fans singing “Take Me Home, Country Roads” to Tom Brady as the Bucs took an insurmountable one-game lead in the NFC South.
This week, I’m going to single out the three nail-biters that had the highest stakes, identify the turning point of each matchup, and look ahead at what the outcome means for both teams.
The Vikings and Bills put on a show for the ages
Ten months after they came up short in a playoff game that NFL Network will reair for years, the Bills came up short in a regular season game that NFL Network will reair for years. So, uh, congrats on participating in two instant classics in less than a year?
There were about two dozen turning points in the wild outing between the Bills and Vikings in Buffalo on Sunday. The home team had built a 17-point lead late in the third quarter, and that’s when the non-stop action began. Immediately after Buffalo went up 27-10, this is what happened:
1. On the first play of the Vikings’ next drive, Dalvin Cook broke free for a 81-yard rushing touchdown.
2. The Bills marched down the field, with help from former Viking Stefon Diggs, who made an incredible one-handed snag to convert a third-and-long. Later, on fourth-and-2 from the Minnesota 7-yard line, Sean McDermott decided to go for it rather than kick a field goal. Patrick Peterson intercepted Josh Allen in the end zone.
3. Kirk Cousins led the Vikings the other way down the field, converting two fourth downs in a 13-play, 66-yard touchdown drive. However, the extra point was no good, so they trailed by four. They got the ball back just over a minute later after the Bills went three-and-out.
4. Cousins once again conducted a long drive, with help from Justin Jefferson, whom the Vikings’ drafted to replace Diggs. On fourth-and-18, he one-upped Diggs’ highlight-reel grab with one of the greatest catches you will ever see:
5. On first-and-goal, Cousins fell backward right on his butt. Two plays later, he found Jefferson again but the touchdown call was (correctly) overturned and he was ruled just short of the goal line. On fourth-and-goal, Cook bobbled a would-be TD, but an offside penalty on Buffalo gave Minnesota another chance. Then Cousins couldn’t sneak the ball over before his knee hit the ground. Game over?
6. Lol, no. With 41 seconds remaining, the Bills fumbled the snap and the Vikes recovered in the end zone:
That gave the Vikings their first lead of the second half.
7. Buffalo did get the ball back, and 41 seconds is enough time for Allen to get the Bills into field goal range, which he did (though the biggest play of the drive shouldn’t have counted). Overtime!
8. The Bills lost the coin toss again, so the Vikings started with the ball. Thanks to a couple more improbable catches by Jefferson, Minnesota got back into the red zone but stalled and settled for a field goal.
9. That meant, unlike against the Chiefs in January, Allen got the chance to win the game with the ball in his hands. It looked like he was about to do just that when he directed the Bills to the Minnesota 20-yard line, courtesy of a pair of scrambles and a pair of throws to Diggs. Unfortunately for Allen, he then threw the ball not to a teammate, but to Peterson for a second time. The veteran cornerback’s interception sealed the win for Minnesota.
Turning point in the game: The fumbled snap in the end zone. If the Bills simply executed that play properly, they would have won.
What the win means for Minnesota: To me, the Vikings are this year’s version of the Titans. By that, I mean they’re eking out close wins week after week, even as we think, “surely they can’t keep this up, right?” Minnesota is 7-0 in one-score contests this year; Tennessee went 7-2 in such situations in 2020, 6-2 in 2021, and is 5-2 so far in 2022.
And like the Titans in recent years, I think the Vikings are capable of winning a game or two in the playoffs. I’m not ready to buy them as a Super Bowl team considering the way that the NFC favorite, the Eagles, manhandled them earlier this season. But they have certainly been one of the most impressive squads this year.
I’m also now a firm believer in the reverse ManningCast curse.
What the loss means for Buffalo: I do think the Bills are a better team than they were a season ago, even if they continue to make questionable decisions down the stretch that cost them wins. Last year, they were 0-6 in one-score contests, including that postseason loss to the Chiefs. This year, they’ve won two close games, but their three losses have been decided by 2 points, 3 points, and 3 points. And that could be the difference between them earning the No. 1 seed in the AFC and potentially being a wild card.
Right now, the Bills are technically in third place in the AFC East. They dealt with a similar “swoon” in the middle of last season but rebounded to win the division. The competition is much stiffer this year, though I do expect to get their act together soon enough.
If Allen stays healthy, the Bills are still a Super Bowl contender, and even if it’s not the likeliest outcome, can you imagine if they had a rematch with the Vikings come February? Two hard-luck franchises who are a combined 0-8 in the Super Bowl, with a long-awaited championship on the line. If it’d be anything like their showdown this week, then sign me up.
The Packers and Cowboys reverted to their old selves
The Packers were limping into their Week 10 matchup against a well-rested Cowboys team coming off a bye. Apparently, seeing their former coach, Mike McCarthy, back at Lambeau was all the motivation Green Bay needed to rise from the dead.
Well, that and the fact that, in the midst of a five-game losing streak, the Pack were basically facing a must-win situation on Sunday. Despite a sloppy start, their offense finally found their groove — and against the usually tough Dallas defense.
Green Bay gashed the Cowboys for 207 rushing yards while rookie receiver Christian Watson broke out with four catches for 107 yards and three touchdowns, including the game-tying score with a couple minutes left in regulation that completed the Packers’ 14-point comeback:
The Cowboys received the kickoff to open the overtime period and were moving the ball well, except two penalties negated two separate first downs. They eventually faced fourth-and-3 at Green Bay’s 35-yard line, and McCarthy elected to go for it rather than kick a field goal. Under pressure, Dak Prescott couldn’t complete his pass to Tony Pollard. The Packers took over and quickly got into field goal position due to a big Allen Lazard gain (aided by a Cowboys defender slipping). Mason Crosby connected on the kick, and the Packers ended their skid.
Turning point in the game: The fourth-down decision in overtime was critical, but I’m not sure McCarthy was wrong to go for it there. Instead, I think the play before that was where Dallas lost the game. On that drive, the Cowboys had success picking up the necessary yardage when they ran the ball. On third-and-3, they opted to throw to CeeDee Lamb, who was the victim of a no-call PI:
What the win means for Green Bay: At some point during their fourth-quarter comeback, I thought the Packers looked like themselves again, i.e. a team that you want to count out but keeps finding ways to win. This is the type of victory they can build off of, especially since the offense was in sync at long last. Though I doubt they have enough juice to overtake the Vikings in the NFC North this season, I won’t believe the Packers are out of the playoff picture until I see a body.
What the loss means for Dallas: While the Packers played more like the Matt LaFleur teams we’ve seen in recent years, the Cowboys also played the version we’re used to watching. They’re good enough to make the playoffs, but not good enough to do much beyond that.
Right now, they are still in line to return to the postseason, even if another loss puts them further behind the Eagles in the NFC East. Keep in mind, they have a three-week stretch in December that will pit them against the three bad teams in the AFC South. But Dallas’ worst tendencies came out on Sunday: an offense that’s not consistent, a defense that can’t finish, and way too many penalties. That’s why if the Cowboys do punch their playoff ticket, it’s hard to be too optimistic that they won’t bow out early again.
The Raiders and Colts got their soap opera on
Unlike the four teams mentioned above, the Raiders and Colts are both playoff long shots. But they both entered Sunday trying to prove that they weren’t quite as dysfunctional as everyone thought they were.
One of them succeeded anyway, and somehow it was the side that hired an ESPN analyst as its interim coach just six days earlier.
In a surprise move, but one that made perfect sense, Jeff Saturday put Matt Ryan back in the starting lineup for the Colts:
The decision paid off. The Colts gained 415 yards, their highest total since their previous win a month again against the Jaguars. Ryan was 21 of 28 for 222 yards and a touchdown, and he even totaled 38 rushing yards. Notably, he didn’t turn the ball over, just the second time all season that’s happened.
Indy still had several miscues, including a fumble and a missed field goal. Those mistakes helped the Raiders rally from deficits. Vegas scored its first touchdown after Keke Coutee’s fumble, and then the home team took its first lead of the afternoon following Chase McLaughlin’s failed kick.
Ryan brought the Colts back, however. Late in the fourth quarter, Ryan scrambled for 39 yards (really!) and two plays later, he hit Parris Campell for a 35-yard touchdown and a five-point lead:
Derek Carr had five minutes to try to engineer his own go-ahead score. He almost did, if Foster Moreau — the starting tight end with Darren Waller on IR — had been able to haul in a pass on third down. Carr targeted Davante Adams on the next play, but Stephon Gilmore was there to break it up and give Saturday his first win as a coach in the NFL.
Turning point in the game: On the Colts’ final touchdown drive, Michael Pittman fumbled after a catch. The Raiders could have recovered it, but Pittman never gave up and came back to land on the ball:
The Raiders could’ve maintained or even extended their lead if they had secured the fumble. Alas, Campell’s touchdown came on the next play and the Raiders never led again.
What the win means for Indianapolis: After a highly unusual week, the Colts needed a confidence boost. And at least for one Sunday, the Jeff Saturday experience worked out. TBD on the rest of the season, but the Colts showed that they still have some fight left in them.
What the loss means for Las Vegas: The question is how long will Mark Davis be patient with Josh McDaniels. The Raiders are a total mess right now, and it’s breaking Derek Carr.
Or, as Saturday put it a couple weeks ago when he was still at ESPN:
If they can’t turn things around in the coming weeks, McDaniels could be one-and-done … at which point he would just return to the Patriots.