NFL Week 9 picks of the trade
How did the trade deadline affect this weekend's games (and beyond)?
Compared to other professional leagues, the NFL’s trade deadline is usually rather tame. Not so this year, when a record 12 players were dealt on deadline day. That doesn’t even include the big names who were traded before Tuesday, like Robert Quinn (Eagles), James Robinson (Jets), and Christian McCaffrey (49ers).
Speaking of McCaffrey, he made his debut for the Niners just days after they sent a few draft picks to the Panthers in exchange for his services. He got 10 touches, but his impact was minimal. However, McCaffrey was a huge factor in his second game in San Francisco the following week.
Quinn received 20 snaps for the Eagles in Week 8 after they acquired him from the Bears. He also earned a bit of playing time on Thursday night in Philadelphia’s win over Houston (which came shortly before Houston’s win over Philadelphia in baseball). Though he didn’t record any stats, the Texans double-teamed him on a third down, which freed up Javon Hargave for a sack.
In that same vein, it’ll likely take a little time for the other traded players to really make their presence felt. Luckily for some, they’ll have extra time because their new teams are on a bye — six are off this week.
That means we have just 12 more matchups remaining in Week 9. And unfortunately, the slate doesn’t look particularly appealing. At the very least, Vegas thinks most of them will be decided by five points or fewer. These are the latest odds from DraftKings (the favored team is in bold):
Bills at Jets (+11.5)
Dolphins at Bears (+4)
Vikings at Commanders (+3)
Panthers at Bengals (-7.5)
Chargers at Falcons (+3)
Packers at Lions (+3.5)
Colts at Patriots (-6)
Raiders at Jaguars (+2)
Seahawks at Cardinals (-2)
Rams at Buccaneers (-3)
Titans at Chiefs (-12.5)
Ravens at Saints (+2.5)
If you want picks for every game, be sure to check out Christian’s column at FTW. For my picks this week, though, I’d like to focus on a few teams that landed a player before the deadline. Even if none of the new faces will have a major effect on the outcome this week, what does their addition mean for the franchise later this season and beyond?
Former first-rounders getting a chance to play for a contender
A few recent first-round picks had been toiling away on bad teams. Suddenly, they’re playing for franchises that are right in the playoff mix.
T.J. Hockenson, from a one-win team to a one-loss team: Vikings over Commanders
I can’t say I was expecting the Lions to trade former No. 8 pick T.J. Hockenson to a divisional rival, but I at least understand the deal from both sides. The Vikings are getting a tight end who is capable of being an offensive playmaker, which is especially needed since Irv Smith Jr. is out for a while with an ankle sprain. Hockenson was never consistent enough in Detroit to live up to his billing, but that could easily be more of a Lions flaw than a Hockenson one.
Hockenson has been a decent red zone threat in his career, and he can be more of a weapon in Minnesota, though I’m not sure if he’s the difference between a good Vikings offense (which it is now) and a great one. I’m also not sure how much I trust Minnesota. But the NFC is so wide open that I think the Vikes can at least be a threat come playoff time, particularly if they continue to be clutch (they’ve won five straight one-score games).
This weekend, Hockenson has the chance to beat the same team — one outside of the NFC North — twice in a season. The Lions’ only win of the year so far came in Week 2 against the Commanders (Hockenson had three catches for 26 yards). The Commanders have been better since then, and like the Vikings, they are adept at winning in the fourth quarter.
I almost picked the Commanders last week against the Colts, but I decided to go with the home team — that was a mistake. It might also be a mistake to predict Kirk Cousins, who will be facing his former team, will win a revenge game. He’s done it once before, however, and this time he’ll have Hockenson to help. Even if that help is mostly in the form of blocking for Dalvin Cook, this week anyway.
Bradley Chubb, finally on the verge of the playoffs: Dolphins over Bears
In 2018, Bradley Chubb looked like the Broncos’ next pass-rushing menace. Alongside Von Miller, Chubb led all rookies with 12 sacks.
He hasn’t been in double figures since then. Part of the reason for that is Chubb didn’t play a full season from 2019-2021. The closest he came was in 2020, when he appeared in 14 games, tallied 7.5 sacks, and made the Pro Bowl.
However, that seems likely to change this season, as long as he stays healthy — and productive for his new team, the Dolphins. Chubb has rebounded in 2022, with 5.5 sacks, four TFLs, eight QB hits, and two forced fumbles. He currently ranks third among edge defenders in pass rush win rate.
Chubb can give Miami a boost in that department. The Dolphins rank near the bottom in both pressure rate and sack rate. And unlike other recently acquired players, Chubb can make waves right away — on Sunday, Miami will face off against Chicago, which has surrendered a league-high 31 sacks this season with a god-awful 15 percent adjusted sack rate.
The good news for Justin Fields is that at least he’ll have a real wide receiver to throw to now. The bad news is that the Bears traded a couple of their best defensive players and will have a tough time trying to slow down the Dolphins’ quick-strike offense.
By trading for Chubb (and then giving him an extension), the Dolphins are going “all in” this season and the near future, too.
Miami is poised to earn a playoff bid, something it hasn’t done since 2016 and something that Chubb has yet to experience in the NFL.
Roquan Smith, maybe heading back to the playoffs: Ravens over Saints
Unlike the other names on this list, Roquan Smith has been to the playoffs before. As a rookie, he had an interception and seven tackles in the Bears’ infamous double-doink loss to the Eagles.
Both he and the Ravens can make it back to the playoffs this season, and perhaps even get a win this time. Baltimore is currently in first place in the AFC North, though the team’s injuries are starting to pile up. Still, their offense has been very efficient this season. The defense has lagged behind and is arguably to blame for the Ravens’ three losses (all of which involved blowing double-digit leads).
Smith, the NFL’s leading tackler, can improve Baltimore’s mediocre run defense. He has eight run stuffs this season, second among all off-the-ball linebackers. That should help on Monday night when the Ravens will go up against Alvin Kamara in New Orleans. The Saints are a tough out for anyone, but they’re also somehow more injured than the Ravens, so I think Lamar Jackson and Co. can escape with a win. Maybe the defense, with an assist from Smith, can actually seal the game this week.
Former first-rounders getting a much-needed fresh start
A couple first-round wide receivers have a chance for a do-over in a new city. One can play right away, but the other will have to wait until next year.
Kadarius Toney, suddenly healthy again: Chiefs over Titans
Kadarius Toney had a rocky and brief tenure with the Giants. The No. 20 selection in the 2021 draft appeared in just 12 games and caught zero touchdown passes in New York. As a rookie, he had a promising two-week stretch in which he hauled in 16 passes for 267 yards, but he wasn’t productive or healthy enough after that.
While a nagging hamstring injury has limited him to two games this season, he’s apparently good to go in his first contest with the Chiefs. I honestly believe he was hurt — hamstring injuries are tough and usually involve setbacks, as I’m seeing with Jaxon Smith-Njigba in college — but I still laughed when I saw this tweet:
Both the Chiefs’ coaching staff and Travis Kelce have been impressed with Toney so far in practice. I wouldn’t expect Toney to be a large part of Kansas City’s gameplan against the Titans, but I don’t think the Chiefs need him to be on Sunday night. Even though the Titans kicked their butts last year, the Chiefs are rested, relatively healthy, and playing at Arrowhead Stadium this year.
As long as Toney’s hamstring doesn’t act up, he can become a big-play threat for Patrick Mahomes down the road. It’s a risk the Chiefs were in position to make, and one that could come with a huge reward if Toney lives up to his pre-draft hype.
Calvin Ridley, a gamble (sorry) worth taking: Jaguars over Raiders
It was clear Calvin Ridley’s time with the Falcons was coming to an end when he was suspended indefinitely for gambling. Even though Ridley won’t play for the Jaguars this season, it makes sense why they traded for him. Ridley has proven he can be a No. 1 receiver (90 catches for 1,374 yards in 2020), which the Jaguars are missing. If Ridley, who was injured for much of 2021, can regain his form next season, then Christian Kirk can go back to being the No. 2 WR that he was meant to be.
The Jags won’t get a literal bump from Ridley on Sunday, but maybe he can give them a mental bump when they host the Raiders. Jacksonville has come so close to breaking its five-game losing streak, yet the team keeps making the same mistakes and ends up dropping a nail-biter.
The Raiders have also lost a few heartbreakers, though their most recent game was a 24-0 drubbing at the hands of the Saints. The Vegas offense didn’t even cross midfield until there were a few minutes left in the fourth quarter. It’s hard to put any faith in either team, but the Jaguars at least made a move with an eye toward the future. I think they can build off of that momentum and end their skid this week.