Drama-filled Week 10 NFL picks
Will that drama carry over to the football field this weekend? Maybe so!
Once again, we’ve already had A Week in the NFL and so far, only one game has been played.
That was not a good game, mind you. Panthers-Falcons, Part 2 was pretty much guaranteed to be a sloppy mess, even before the weather forecasters correctly predicted rainy and windy conditions. It’s no surprise that the under hit in Carolina’s 25-15 win.
The days leading up to that Thursday Night Football poopfest were filled with drama. It started Monday, when Frank Reich became the second head coach to be fired this year. The Colts replaced him with Jeff Saturday, a former player and current ESPN analyst who has no coaching experience at the college or pro level.
Yes, that’s a problem, even if he can deliver a rousing speech:
Soon after, Russell Wilson and Pete Carroll got snippy with each other, through the media, about wristbands. Then the constantly dysfunctional Commanders decided to crassly use Brian Robinson’s shooting as a way to slam DC’s attorney general, who filed a lawsuit against Dan Snyder, the team, and the NFL.
Meanwhile, Josh Allen and Matthew Stafford are dealing with sudden injuries, a couple of 2019 first-round picks were released, and a Raiders starting linebacker announced his retirement, midseason.
The NFL is so rarely boring. Except, y’know, when we get games like Panthers vs. Falcons in primetime.
Despite Week 10 beginning on an ominous note, I’m feeling optimistic about the rest of the contests yet to come. There’s no real logical explanation for that if you look at this week’s “meh” slate, which we are about to do, along with the latest odds from DraftKings (the favored team is in bold):
Seahawks at Buccaneers (-2.5)
Texans at Giants (-4.5)
Jaguars at Chiefs (-9)
Browns at Dolphins (-3.5)
Vikings at Bills (-3)
Broncos at Titans (-2.5)
Lions at Bears (-3)
Saints at Steelers (+1.5)
Colts at Raiders (-4.5)
Cowboys at Packers (+4.5)
Cardinals at Rams (-3)
Chargers at 49ers (-7)
Commanders at Eagles (-11)
But last week’s games were unexpectedly entertaining, so I’m hoping for a repeat.
Since “drama” seems to be the early trend of Week 10, I’m going to focus my picks on matchups that reunite familiar faces … some of whom did not part on the best of terms. As always, Christian has made picks for every game, which you can check out over at FTW.
Quarterback vs. his former coach: Seahawks over Bucs
Before Todd Bowles’ first season as a head coach began, his young starting quarterback was sidelined with a fractured jaw, courtesy of a sucker punch from his own teammate. That was the last time Geno Smith was a full-time starter, until this season during his Comeback Player of the Year campaign.
In 2015, Ryan Fitzpatrick took over for Smith and kept the job even when Smith was healthy again. The following year, Bowles turned to Smith after a terrible performance from Fitzpatrick, but Smith’s return to the Jets lineup was short-lived. He tore his ACL in his lone start of 2016.
Six years later, Smith is with the Seahawks and Bowles is leading the Bucs. They’ll meet again in Munich for the NFL’s first regular season game in Germany. There doesn’t appear to be any bad blood between Bowles and Smith. Bowles praised Smith’s work ethic in the lead up to the Sunday morning showdown, but reading between the lines, I think he viewed Smith as a bit immature (but has since grown) in their time together with the Jets.
So I’m not sure that this week counts as part of the Geno Smith Revenge Tour that has racked up nothing but W’s this season. Nevertheless, I’m backing Smith and the Seahawks.
I can judge this matchup by what our expectations were of both sides. The Bucs have Tom Brady and were supposed to be a Super Bowl contender; the Seahawks were projected to be one of the league’s bottom feeders.
Or I can trust what I’ve seen with my own eyes, which is that Seattle is the better team right now and probably should be favored.
Coach vs. his former team: Cowboys over Packers
The Cowboy have dropped eight of their last nine, including two playoff contests, against the Packers. Mike McCarthy was Green Bay’s head coach for all but the last of those. Now he’s on the other sideline and will meet his former team and quarterback for the first time as Dallas’ coach.
Coming into the season, this looked like a near-certain Packers victory. They were expected to be among the NFC’s elite, the Cowboys seemed like a team that could take a step back, the game is at Lambeau, and Aaron Rodgers probably still holds a grudge against McCarthy for a tiny slight 17 years ago (even if Rodgers acts more introspective about their relationship in hindsight).
But again, I have to apply the same logic as I did with Seahawks-Bucs and base my opinion on how both are playing right now. The Cowboys rank No. 3 in overall team DVOA and boast the league’s top defensive unit in the same category. The Packers rank No. 21 in overall team DVOA and scored just nine points last week against Detroit, whose defense jumped from No. 32 to No. 26 after it picked off Rodgers three times.
Dallas DC Dan Quinn also had an extra week to prepare during the bye, which doesn’t bode well for the Packers’ struggling offense. If Green Bay is to end its losing skid, the offense will have to come to life — something it has barely done all season.
Coach vs. his former mentor: Chiefs over Jaguars
Speaking of losing streaks, the Jaguars finally halted theirs last week in a comeback win over the Raiders. Their reward? A trip to Arrowhead Stadium. Yeesh.
Jacksonville head coach Doug Pederson is plenty familiar with Andy Reid, though. First Pederson played under Reid, and then he got his coaching career started under him with the Eagles and Chiefs.
Pederson has only faced off against Reid once before: a 27-20 win for Kansas City in 2017, a year before Patrick Mahomes took the reins as starting quarterback. Beating his former assistants is nothing new for Reid, however.
The Chiefs are big favorites for a reason, and I’m confident they can earn their seventh win of the season on Sunday. But I’d be leery of picking them against the spread. They’re coming off a hard-fought overtime victory against the Titans, the fourth time (out of four matchups) that KC hasn’t covered at home this season.
Plus, almost all of the Jaguars’ games this year — and 100 percent of their losses — have been decided by one score. I don’t expect that to change this week.
Wide receiver vs. his former team: Bills over Vikings
Stefon Diggs was a star for the Vikings, responsible for their most iconic moment in postseason history. But, frustrated with the offense and the direction it was headed, he requested a trade after the 2019 season.
That trade was granted — and somehow, everyone ended up a winner. Diggs went to Buffalo, where he has established a great rapport, on and off the field, with Josh Allen. That spring, the Vikings drafted Justin Jefferson, who has already totaled 3,883 receiving yards in 2.5 seasons in the NFL.
Diggs will be pitted against his former team for the first time when the surging Vikings visit the Bills on Sunday. There’s no ill will toward or from Diggs:
That doesn’t mean he won’t be ready to show out against Minnesota. Yet there’s a potential problem with that plan: Allen might not be available as he deals with a tricky elbow injury.
Even if Allen can’t go, I still like the Bills in this one. Case Keenum, Diggs’ partner in crime for the Minneapolis Miracle, is Allen’s backup and is perfectly capable of stepping in and managing the game. He did it last year for the Browns against another ex-team, the Broncos.
The Bills are coming off a surprising loss to the Jets and will be out to prove that, with or without Allen, they’re still one of the top teams in the NFL. I believe they’ll do just that.
Coach vs. his almost former team: Raiders over Colts
Let’s see. On one side, we have the Colts, who hired someone whose last coaching experience amounted to a 3-7 record at the high school level. The guy now calling the plays for their league-worst offense is someone called “Parks Frazier”:
On the other side, the Raiders just put two of their starting pass catchers on IR and lost Blake Martinez to a surprise retirement. They also can’t stop blowing leads:
This clash has all the makings of a slapfight, at best, but at least the backstory is juicy. In February 2018, Josh McDaniels was set to make his return to head coaching, accepting the position with the Colts. Then he suddenly reneged on the deal and went back to the Patriots. A few days later, they hired Frank Reich, who led Indy to a playoff berth that season.
Reich’s tenure didn’t survive long enough for him to go head to head with McDaniels, but McDaniels could soon join him on the unemployment line if he doesn't get a win this week. With the Colts in tank mode, I think he’ll get that win, right before he has to face off against another former team — one he was the coach of for longer than a minute.