NFL picks for a busy Week 8
Every team plays this week as the trade deadline approaches.
Only 13 games were on the schedule last week, the fewest number until Week 13, when six other teams will be on their bye. All 32 squads are back in action in Week 8, for some reason. Maybe the upcoming trade deadline, set for Tuesday at 4 p.m. ET, plays a part in that.
The Bills and Buccaneers started this week off on Thursday night. For most of the evening, the Bills looked more like the dominant team we expected to see all season, but the Bucs still came all-too-close to stealing a win. Still, Buffalo returned to form and got a much-needed victory.
Other teams will try to follow suit this weekend, while I will try to rebound from my worst week of picks yet. How was I to know that four 1-5 teams would win in Week 7, which hadn’t happened since 2013?
I don’t think Week 8 will be as unpredictable, but famous last words and all. My picks for the 15 other matchups are in bold below, along with the odds as of Thursday night:
Eagles at Commanders (+7)
Patriots at Dolphins (-9.5)
Jets at Giants (+2.5)
Vikings at Packers (+1.5)
Rams at Cowboys (-6)
Jaguars at Steelers (+2.5)
Texans at Panthers (+3.5)
Falcons at Titans (+2.5)
Saints at Colts (+1)
Browns at Seahawks (-3.5)
Chiefs at Broncos (+7)
Ravens at Cardinals (+9.5)
Bengals at 49ers (-4)
Bears at Chargers (-8.5)
Raiders at Lions (-8)
I mostly agree with Christian this week, but you should still check out his picks at FTW. Now let’s preview Week 8.
Let the good times roll
Like the Bills, these teams look like contenders when they’re at their best — but they haven’t always played to their potential. I don’t know if they will this weekend, but I do think they’ll get the W.
Dolphins over Patriots
The Patriots came up with one of the big upsets of Week 7 when they rallied to defeat the Bills for the first time since Mac Jones’ rookie season. They’ll look to keep the momentum going against a quarterback, Tua Tagovailoa, whom they have never beaten.
The Dolphins already took down the Pats once this season, and that was when New England’s defense was much healthier. Miami’s D, which has struggled containing the pass, could also have reinforcements coming this weekend, if Jalen Ramsey is cleared to make his Dolphins debut. It’s possible that the Patriots can pull off back-to-back shockers, but Miami has yet to fall to a team with a losing record, and I think that trend will continue.
Cowboys over Rams
The Cowboys are coming off their bye week, which gave them a chance to recharge and perhaps tweak their offense. The Rams have a new fan they’ll be motivated to play for: Sean McVay’s baby boy, who was born earlier in the week1.
This could be more of a battle than the odds suggest. The Cowboys only rank a few spots higher than the Rams in team DVOA. Dallas has the more efficient defense, and LA has the more efficient offense. What separates the two teams most in the rankings is special teams, where the Rams rank dead last in the NFL. If only the Rams still had John Fassel, currently the Cowboys’ special teams coach, on staff.
In the end, though, I think Dallas’ home magic — the Cowboys have won 10 straight at AT&T Stadium — will prevail again.
Ravens over Cardinals
Baltimore had been a little up-and-down to start the season, which is why I thought the Ravens-Lions matchup would be close last week. Lamar Jackson was the main reason I picked the Ravens, and he managed to exceed my expectations. He almost always takes care of business against NFC opponents, with a 16-1 career record against them as a starter.
I feel bad for the Cardinals, who seem to face a potential playoff team every week and simply don’t have the talent to match. But at least Arizona sports fans have the Diamondbacks to cheer for in the World Series. And, well, Kyler Murray could be back soon.
49ers over Bengals
Two weeks ago, the 49ers looked invincible, but after losing two straight games, they’re suddenly in need of a confidence-boosting win. The defense has received most of the blame, but the injuries on offense are starting to pile up. This weekend, Deebo Samuel is out again, Trent Williams could be, and Sam Darnold might have to fill in for Brock Purdy.
That could be good news for the Bengals, who are extra rested after their bye week. But, despite two straight wins, it’s not like they’ve been the model of consistency this year. I think the 49ers can get back on track on defense against Cincinnati’s mercurial offense, and thus back in the win column.
Chargers over Bears
I’m as surprised as anyone that the team with the better vibes heading into Sunday night is the Bears. But the Chargers are, in the words of Brandon Staley, in desperate need of a reset.
One potential problem with that aspiration is Justin Herbert’s injury. Since he broke his finger in the second half of Week 5, Herbert’s numbers have dipped to a 58.6 completion percentage and a 79.5 passer rating, and the Chargers have lost two straight and barely held off the Raiders. Of course, those two losses came against the Cowboys and Chiefs, who both rank in the top 10 in overall DVOA and in the top five in defensive DVOA. The Bears are, uh, nowhere near that.
The Bears also have a hurt Justin at the QB position, but theirs is likely to miss another game this week. Tyson Bagent did a nice job filling in for Justin Fields last week in a double-digit win over the Raiders, and Chicago will stick to the same offensive plan. That could very well work against LA’s lackluster defense, too. However, I’m guessing the Chargers’ better players can beat the Bears’ better vibes.
Lions over Raiders
It’s been two years since the Lions played on Monday Night Football and five years since they hosted a Monday Night Football contest. Although the Lions have had a colorful history on MNF, neither of those games ended up being very close. Kind of like last week, when Detroit got a rude awakening, courtesy of Lamar Jackson and the Ravens.
Luckily for the Lions, the Raiders (No. 30 in DVOA) are not in the Ravens’ (No. 1 in DVOA) league. Perhaps the evening kickoff will treat the Raiders better than their noon CT start time a week ago, and Jimmy Garoppolo should be back, which will give the offense a pulse that it didn’t have under Brian Hoyer. Still, Detroit has waited years for this Monday Night Football showcase. The Lions shouldn’t disappoint.
Trade winds are blowing
Another loss could lead to several below .500 teams offloading a player at the trade deadline, while at least one over .500 team could try to add a new piece to help them in their playoff push.
Eagles over Commanders
Even after their impressive win over the Dolphins, the Eagles won’t take the Commanders lightly. After all, Philly needed overtime to beat them earlier this month.
That said, these two NFC East foes are not on the same level. The Eagles keep trying to find ways to improve the roster, while the Commanders — after what is probably another loss this weekend — could be saying goodbye to a pass rusher at the trade deadline.
Falcons over Titans
I try not to put too much faith in the Falcons in any given week and in any given season. And right now, Arthur Smith is not doing much to change my mind on that matter. However, the Falcons have been mostly fine this year, whereas the Titans have been mostly bad and plan to use the dreaded QB rotation this Sunday with Ryan Tannehill likely out.
Tennessee has already traded one veteran away, and once again, the speculation is that Derrick Henry will be next. Maybe it’ll actually happen this time, if the Titans drop to 2-5 like I suspect.
Colts over Saints
Whenever I watch the Saints, I think, “so does everyone on this team hate each other or what?” Despite a messy offseason and losing their rookie QB for the year, the Colts are somehow the more stable team. They’ve also shown a bit of life, which is more than I can say for the Saints, who might end up as sellers at the trade deadline.
Seahawks over Browns
The Browns are trying to improve to 3-0 with P.J. Walker at QB for a majority of the snaps because their $230 million starter is hurt and/or bad and/or uninterested in playing. If they do, it’ll be because their defense carried the load again.
The Seahawks’ offense hasn’t looked all that smooth the last two weeks either, but D.K. Metcalf’s return should provide a boost there. So should Seattle’s 90s-style uniforms — not that either franchise wants to throw it back to that decade, when they combined for just two postseason appearances. Both are possible playoff contenders this season, but the loser might have to make a move before the trade deadline to help their chances. I expect that to be the Browns.
Chiefs over Broncos
The Broncos’ defense has played better lately than their historically awful start, including holding the Chiefs to 19 points just two weeks ago. Their rematch — this time in the nippy Denver mountain air — could once again be closer than Vegas thinks it will be. And the Chiefs will still win, just like they’ve done the last 16 times they’ve met the Broncos.
Hopefully whoever the Broncos deal by Tuesday winds up in a good home, one far away from Kansas City.
The “just flip a coin” picks
The oddsmakers say that the four home teams below are all slight underdogs. I mostly agree.
Jets over Giants
The Giants have been plagued by problems, both injuries and otherwise, on offense, but the defense has finally settled in. The Jets are in a similar position, though their defense has harassed quarterbacks all season. One of these offenses will have to make some plays. I’m counting on it being the Jets, mostly because I don’t want a shock jock to gloat if Zach Wilson, who dared to visit family with his girlfriend, has a bad game.
Vikings over Packers
These two NFC North rivals have claimed the last four division titles and 11 of the last 12. Right now, both are under .500, though the playoffs aren’t out of the question just yet — and whoever wins on Sunday at Lambeau Field will have a more reasonable chance.
Of the two, the Vikings have been the stronger team in recent weeks. As much fun as it is to rag on Kirk Cousins sometimes, credit where credit is due: He was terrific against the 49ers, even without No. 1 WR Justin Jefferson. Meanwhile, first-year starter Jordan Love has struggled, surrounded by even younger and similarly inexperienced players on offense. The Packers are running out of time, both in the playoff race and with Love’s contract, and need something positive to happen soon. Judging by their lengthy injury report, I don’t see that coming this weekend.
Jaguars over Steelers
After a slow start to the season, the Jaguars are finally jelling again and playing like the team that ended last season on such a hot streak. They also have a winning record against the Steelers in their all-time matchups, playoffs included. That doesn’t mean Sunday will be easy; it usually isn’t for any opponent who travels to Pittsburgh.
While Trevor Lawrence is looking forward to seeing the Terrible Towels in person, I doubt he feels the same way about having to go up against T.J. Watt, who currently ranks second in the NFL in sacks and QB hits. The Steelers could win this one ugly, and no one would be surprised. But I’m going to say they lose it ugly instead — ugly as in “phew, that was unwatchable football,” not ugly as in a blowout.
Panthers over Texans
Everyone will try to frame this matchup as Bryce Young vs. C.J. Stroud and whether the Panthers did or did not make the right draft decision. I understand that, especially because it’s only the fifth time that we’ve ever seen this kind of faceoff: a rookie QB who was the No. 1 pick vs. a rookie QB who was No. 2 pick. I’m not particularly interested in pitting these two friends against each other eight weeks into their NFL career, though.
Stroud has been the better quarterback so far, but Young seemed like he had started to put things together in his last start. After a bye week in which head coach Frank Reich surrendered his playcalling duties, I expect a few new wrinkles from Carolina’s offense, perhaps ones that the Texans weren’t anticipating.
I don’t know if that’ll be enough for the Panthers to earn their first victory of the season, but that win has to come at some point.
Ever the football coach, McVay referred to his wife, Veronika, as a “stud” during the delivery, which is at least a million times better than Adam Gase’s reaction to his wife giving birth.