NFL picks for a Week 7 that could be ugly AND fun

Eagles-Dolphins? Yes please! Broncos-Packers? No thank you.

It’s not often that the Thursday Night Football game serves as a harbinger of what’s to come in the NFL that weekend. I think this week, however, has the potential to be different. 

In some ways, the Jaguars’ win over the Saints was, like so many other TNF contests before it, gross. The Jags kept giving the Saints chances to stay in the game with turnovers and inefficiency on third and fourth downs. The Saints — Derek Carr in particular — refused to capitalize on them. Until they did. And then didn’t again. 

Against all odds, it actually turned out to be kinda … entertaining? What was essentially a coin-flip game came down to the final play. 

That mix of ghastly football and gripping football is what could be in store for us the rest of Week 7.

Six teams are on their bye, which leaves us with a relatively light slate. Here are my picks, along with the odds, for the remaining 12 matchups:

Bills at Patriots (+8.5)

Lions at Ravens (-3)

Falcons at Buccaneers (-2.5)

Browns at Colts (+3)

Commanders at Giants (+2.5)

Raiders at Bears (+2.5)

Cardinals at Seahawks (-7.5)

Steelers at Rams (-3)

Chargers at Chiefs (-5.5)

Packers at Broncos (+1)

Dolphins at Eagles (-2.5)

49ers at Vikings (+7)

Don’t forget to check out Christian’s picks at FTW. Now let’s break down Week 7.

The games that could be ugly

Ugly has different meanings: a blowout between a good team and an overmatched one, a slap fight between two unwatchable squads, or an inevitable heartbreaker for a cursed franchise.

Bills over Patriots

The Bills have been a bit inconsistent the past two weeks, while the Patriots have been straight-up awful. New England hasn’t been this much of an underdog at home since 2001, when some guy named Tom Brady made his first ever start. 

It might seem that the Pats, losers of three straight, are due for a win. But they’ve dropped four in a row to the Bills, and the only answer they seem to have for slowing down Josh Allen is to play in a frigid wind tunnel. While it could get gusty at Gillette Stadium on Sunday, I don’t think it’ll be blustery enough for the home team to steal a win. 

Browns over Colts

The Browns could be in for a letdown after their upset over the 49ers, but I’m not about to trust the Colts, who turned the ball over four times last week, against Cleveland’s incredible defense. 

Raiders over Bears

Starting quarterbacks Jimmy Garoppolo and Justin Fields will both be out with injuries, paving the way for a backup rookie QB clash between Aidan O’Connell (probably anyway) and D-II alum Tyson Bagent. O’Connell was sacked seven times — six by Khalil Mack — and turned the ball over three times in his first start against the Chargers. Bagent had two turnovers last week in relief of Fields and also ran in a touchdown. 

Bagent’s running ability gives the Bears their best chance of winning, but I’ll give the edge to the team that has Davante Adams. O’Connell did a nice job of finding Adams the last time he played, and that’s the easiest path to victory for the Raiders. 

Packers over Broncos

I’m certain that this game will be hideous, and I’m somewhat certain it’ll be close. Maybe after the bye week, Matt LaFleur has figured out a way to get Jordan Love back on track. Getting Aaron Jones in the lineup again would help — so will facing Denver’s defense.

49ers over Vikings

Other than their 2-4 record, the Vikings are probably the most middle-of-the-road team in the NFL this season. Their defense ranks No. 15 in DVOA. Their offense is also No. 15. As a team, they’re sitting at No. 16. 

But unless Minnesota borrows the Browns’ defense on Monday night, I see the Week 7 finale going the way that so many Kirk Cousins primetime games have gone before: with an L.

The games that could be fun

The best two games of the week are potential Super Bowl previews. The other two I highlighted here are ripe for shenanigans. 

Ravens over Lions

I must have changed my mind a dozen times on this highly anticipated contest. The Lions have been the best team in the NFL in the last few weeks, mowing down every opponent they’ve encountered. The Ravens have been much more mercurial and have had a bad habit of beating themselves. 

The trip to Baltimore will also be the Lions’ most difficult test in weeks. Part of the reason Detroit’s defense has been so dominant lately is that it hasn’t gone up against a formidable offense since the first two weeks of the season. In those two close games, the defense was susceptible to QB runs: Patrick Mahomes was the Chiefs’ leading rusher against the Lions, while Geno Smith scrambled a few times for critical yards the next week. 

Neither of those quarterbacks is as much of a threat on the ground as Lamar Jackson, who has (quietly?) put together an MVP-like year. And here’s a wild stat for you: Jackson is 15-1 against NFC teams in his career. 

I’m a big believer in this year’s Lions and would not be at all surprised if they continued their hot streak with a win in Baltimore. Yet whatever doubts I have about his supporting cast, I do not like to bet against Lamar.

Seahawks over Cardinals

Seattle’s offense couldn’t get much going last week in Cincinnati, but this week the Seahawks are back home and facing the Cardinals’ 31st-ranked defense (per DVOA) in the league. The Seahawks have won three in a row in this rivalry, and that’s when Kyler Murray, Budda Baker, and James Conner were in the lineup. Murray and Conner remain out (for now), though Baker could return on Sunday, which would be a huge addition for Arizona’s defense. 

Still, I think this could be a get-right game for Geno Smith and Co. However, I’ll include my usual caveat about NFC West showdowns: they can get weird! 

Chiefs over Chargers

Why is the line on this one 5.5 points? The only way I see the Chiefs covering is if this game goes to overtime and they score a touchdown on their first possession (which, admittedly, is entirely possible). Otherwise, I think we all know how this will end: a competitive battle throughout that ends with a three-point loss for the Chargers.

Eagles over Dolphins

Tua vs. Jalen! 5-1 vs. 5-1! My preseason Super Bowl prediction! There’s a lot to be excited about for this week’s Sunday Night Football matchup: a chance for the Eagles to remind everyone who they are, and a chance for the Dolphins to prove they’re not just a flashy offense, but an elite team too.

The Eagles had been producing uneven but winning football until last week, when they fell apart late against the Jets. Perhaps that was the wakeup call they needed to stop playing down to opponents and start playing up to their potential. 

The Dolphins’ speedy playmakers present a mighty big challenge to a Philadelphia secondary that has, maybe, one healthy member. Yet Miami will also have to slow down Jalen Hurts, who is looking to rebound from a rough outing in Week 6. The Dolphins let Josh Allen do whatever he wanted a few weeks ago, and Hurts should have more help this week — and will, ideally, not drop back to pass as much as he did against the Jets. 

I don’t have a strong feeling about how this one will go, so I let a sartorial decision be the tiebreaker: the Eagles will be wearing their Kelly Green jerseys (in front of a raucous Philly crowd, no less). That’s something that won’t be ugly this week.

The “just flip a coin” picks

As usual, I could have included quite a few more matchups in this section, but I limited myself to three this week.

Buccaneers over Falcons

Both of these NFC South foes are coming off losses, but whoever wins on Sunday will be in first place in this lackluster division. The Bucs have experience on their side — even without Tom Brady, most of their key players are still around from their back-to-back NFC South championship teams. 

I don’t think the Falcons are terrible, so they could easily leave Tampa victoriously. Nevertheless, I’m kinda hoping that the Saints and Falcons continue to have the same record each week (at least until their first meeting of the season). And since the Saints already lost this week, the Falcons would have to follow suit to keep my dream alive.

Commanders over Giants

As bad as the Giants have been this season, they showed their mettle when they held their own against the Bills — and nearly upset them. It feels like it’s time for them to win another game, and the Commanders, who lost to the Bears earlier, are a good candidate for the Giants’ second victory. 

But then I picture that patchwork OL staring down Washington’s front seven, and it makes me want to pick the Commanders. One thing is for sure, though: expect a lot of sacks. Sam Howell has been sacked an NFL-high 34 times (some of which were his own fault), while the Giants have allowed 33 sacks.

Steelers over Rams

The Rams might be a little better than their 3-3 record would suggest; their only losses have come to teams that made the Conference Championship Round last season. On the other hand, the Steelers are a little worse than their 3-2 record based on, you know, watching them. 

That said, Mike Tomlin’s crew has not lost after a bye since 2016. The Pittsburgh secondary concerns me (though not Tomlin) against the Rams, but with an extra week to get healthier and switch up the game plan, the Steelers could, once again, find a way to eke out a win.