So long, farewell, it's Week 18 picks
A few teams have something to play for this weekend. Most do not. Either way, the final week of the regular season should be as unreliable as ever.
Well friends, it’s finally (or already?) here. The final picks newsletter of the regular season — but don’t worry, it’s not time to say goodbye to our weekly predictions just yet. We’ll be back at it next Friday, right before the playoffs begin.
Thanks so much for following along with us through an, at times, unpredictable NFL season. Even if that midseason slump we went through wasn’t particularly fun, it has been a pleasure to share our thoughts each week about how we think the games will unfold. Hopefully we’ll end the regular season on a good note, though a combination of resting starters, injuries, and — a qualification we’ve had to use for more than a year now — Covid complicates matters.
A lot has changed since the start of the season, but Week 18 shares one thing in common with Week 1: road teams are favored by a 9-7 margin. Vegas was slightly off back then, because the hosts won eight games while (math alert!) the visitors also won eight. By Sunday night, we’ll know how accurate the odds were this time.
For now, here are the latest lines, as of Thursday night, courtesy of DraftKings:
Chiefs at Broncos (+10.5)
Cowboys at Eagles (+5)
Packers at Lions (+3.5)
Colts at Jaguars (+15)
Washington at Giants (+7)
Bears at Vikings (-5.5)
Bengals at Browns (-6)
Titans at Texans (+10)
Steelers at Ravens (-4)
Saints at Falcons (+3.5)
Jets at Bills (-16)
49ers at Rams (-4.5)
Panthers at Bucs (-8)
Patriots at Dolphins (+6)
Seahawks at Cardinals (-7)
Chargers at Raiders (+3)
Below, we’ll dissect a few select matchups for the NFL’s inaugural Week 18, which kicks off with a Saturday doubleheader, followed by a 14-game (quattuordecuple?) Sunday. If you’d like us to weigh in on any other contests, please hit us up in the comments section.
Sarah’s picks
If you’ve been a faithful Post Route reader, you’ll know that I stopped making picks for every game beginning in Week 9. Mostly, I just wanted to enjoy watching football again rather than agonize over the matchups I got wrong (and, at this point in the season, I was getting a lot of them wrong).
Two months later, I’m pleased to report that my little experiment worked. I was able to relax more and simply appreciate each week’s slate, even if I whiffed on a few games. Of course, it also helps that the NFL chilled out a bit since then with fewer double-digit upsets, but I’ve also been doling out pretty sound advice lately with the picks I have been making.
We’ll see if I can continue that run for the regular season finale. Just know, though, that I am keeping my promise I made in Week 9: Once the postseason starts, I’ll be back to picking every game again.
You should feel most confident in these picks
As far as I can tell, Patrick Mahomes — who has never lost to the Broncos in his career, both as a starter and not — will play on Saturday. Meanwhile, the Broncos will be missing three starters in their secondary, including the one (Pat Surtain II) who picked Mahomes off last time these two met in early December. This time, with Teddy Bridgewater finishing the season on IR, an injured Drew Lock will have to try to end KC’s 12-game winning streak in this rivalry. I’m not optimistic that will happen, especially since the Chiefs still have something to play for: a chance at the No. 1 seed in the AFC.
Last week, the Giants finished an NFL game, in the year 2022, with net -10 yards passing. After, their coach went on an ill-advised, delusional diatribe about how everyone loves him and the Giants are so much better than the results on the field would lead you to believe. Y’know, I’ve been forced to listen to politicians, for at least the last 18 years, try to convince the American people that reality isn’t reality because the only thing that matters to them is power. It’s maddening and deleterious when they do it. When a big ol’ dumb football coach does it, it’s just maddening.
So early congrats on the win, Washington Whatever Your Name is Gonna Be. To be honest, though, I wouldn’t hesitate to pick against the Giants even if they were playing the Jaguars this weekend.
Instead, the Jaguars will be hosting the Colts, who just need to win and they’re in the playoffs. The problem? The Colts haven’t won in Jacksonville since 2014, when Andrew Luck was in his third season and Trent Richardson was still in the NFL.
However, as confident as I am that the Chiefs will continue their dominance over the Broncos, I’m even more confident that the Colts will end their losing streak at TIAA Bank Field. This Indy team is a mentally tough bunch who won’t let recent history get in the way of their goal to make the postseason.
Unless, that is, a majority of the Colts roster has a debilitating fear of clowns.
You should feel least confident in these picks
The Steelers and Ravens are both technically alive in the playoff race, but their chances of securing a wild card berth are muuuuch lower than every other team still in the running.
That would not have been the case if their Week 13 matchup had gone differently. Specifically, if one play had gone differently and if Lamar Jackson and Mark Andrews had connected on a potential game-winning two-point conversion. In that case, the Ravens would be facing a “win and in” scenario while the Steelers would be eliminated. Then again, if every one-score game had gone the opposite way this year, both teams would be cooked — and Pittsburgh would be one of the worst teams in the league:
I have no idea which players will be suiting up on Sunday, but I feel at least reasonably sure we’ll see another close contest. For now, I’m siding with the Ravens because ever since the Steelers’ tie with the Lions, I’ve believed they were destined to finish .500 this season. Mike Tomlin is already assured a non-losing record; let’s cross our fingers that the Steelers can be the first 8-8-1 team in NFL history.
Similarly, I can’t keep track of who is available to play between the Cowboys and Eagles on Saturday. Last time I checked, Philly had a ton of starters on the Covid list, and Dallas will be without rookie sensation Micah Parsons and left tackle Tyron Smith, among others. Both rivals are headed for the playoffs, so there’s not much to play for except bragging rights.
The Cowboys demolished the Eagles in their first meeting this season. On the one hand, that was all the way back in Week 3. On the other hand, the Cowboys have eaten their NFC East competition alive this season. I’ll go with them, even though I wouldn’t be shocked if the birds pulled off a slight upset.
As per NFL tradition, one high-stakes game is flexed to Sunday Night Football to close out the regular season. This year it’s Chargers-Raiders; the winner is guaranteed a spot in the playoffs. And with so much on the line, you expect me to trust EITHER of these teams? Psssshaw.
The Chargers beat the Raiders in Week 4 by two touchdowns, but that was when Jon Gruden was still the head coach in Vegas. This week, they’ll be at home and won’t just be playing for their postseason lives but also, potentially, for interim coach Rich Bisaccia’s job. Darren Waller will also likely be back, and somehow, Derek Carr and the offense have been surviving without their top receiver.
Despite the Raiders’ resiliency, I’m leaning toward the Chargers simply because they have more talent. They — or at least Joey Bosa — might also be in Carr’s head a bit. But with these two teams, no result would surprise me, not even a tie:
Why these are potential upset picks
I just looked back at my upset picks the last few weeks and I’ve been right about every single one I’ve highlighted since Week 15. I went 0-2 in Week 14 when both of my picks lost in overtime, and I haven’t missed since.
So the pressure is on for me to continue that hot streak, and I’m putting my faith in a guy who is trying to extend his own streak. Kyle Shanahan has gotten the best out of former coworker Sean McVay five straight times, including the 49ers’ 21-point victory over the Rams in Week 10. If they can make it six in a row, the Niners are back in the postseason.
I think they’ll do it, even with rookie Trey Lance likely to start and even though the Rams haven’t lost since November. Shanahan doesn’t need to deviate too much from his game plan, either. San Francisco should do what it usually does and rely heavily on its running game and its pass rush. However, I’d strongly suggest Shanahan call some designed run plays for Lance, too. That will keep the LA defense honest, which should in turn give Lance more time to throw on pass plays. Because as he showed against the Texans last week, when Lance has time, he can throw a beauty:
As good as the Rams have been during their five-game winning streak, Matthew Stafford has been all over the place. In the last three weeks, his touchdown-to-interception ratio is 5:6 and he’s also lost a fumble. That lack of ball security could play right into the 49ers’ hands; the fact that Shanahan has been studying up on Stafford since last winter (while on vacation!) probably doesn’t bode well for the Rams quarterback either.
Christian’s picks
Welp, here we are; the least reliable week of the season. Week 18 (formerly 17) is always a bit of a shitshow. Few games feature a showdown between two teams with meaningful stakes. Backups abound. Teams with nothing to look forward to but a high draft pick flip their playbook over to “Ask Corso.” Tackling is, in stretches, optional.
That doesn’t mean we won’t still have a few great games, but I’m not especially jazzed about a Brandon Allen-Case Keenum showdown for a Bengals-Browns game that once looked like prime viewing. Only three games this weekend feature two teams capable of changing their postseason destiny and one is Pittsburgh-Baltimore, which barely counts.
So with that note I’ll say goodbye to two straight weeks of relative normalcy and solid pick’em numbers — 25-7! — and throw some guesses out there.
Pick I like the most
Arizona Cardinals (-300) over the Seattle Seahawks.
There are a handful of games between one team with something left to play for and another who’ll be cleaning out its locker room come Monday. The lowest odds you’ll get for one of these is Saints (-200) over the Falcons, but that’s a wacky rivalry game where the heat of ruining New Orleans’ season could make all this (gestures toward ongoing chain of explosions) worth it for Atlanta.
So let’s roll with Arizona and hope last week’s reversal of a classic Kliff Kingsbury trait — awful finishes to NFL seasons — continues. The Cardinals need a win Sunday to have a shot at the NFC West title. It’s not unreasonable to think they can get there; the Rams face a 49ers team fighting for its playoff life in Week 18, and an LA loss would give Arizona the latitude to move into first place.
The Seahawks, on the other hand, are looking to put Pete Carroll’s first losing season since 2011 behind them and begin preparing ways to disappoint their fans at the 2022 NFL Draft. Seattle’s been a disaster on both sides of the ball this year and already has a 23-13 home loss on its resume against the Cardinals — with Colt McCoy at quarterback, no less. Arizona has momentum, more to play for, and recent history on its side.
That’s as sure a thing as you’ll get for -300 in a week when no one really knows what’s going on.
Pick I overthought, so you should probably fade it
The Steelers made this section a win last week, but I feel like the only real victor in that game was T.J. Watt. Everyone else just kinda participated.
Which brings us to Week 18, a participation ribbon for more than half the teams in the league. As such, about half this weekend’s games qualify for the overthinking prize. I’d like to bet against the Browns when they play the Bengals, but there’s a good chance their offense improves significantly without Baker Mayfield behind center and Cincinnati will start Brandon Allen at QB. I want to take the Bears over the Vikings, but Mike Zimmer’s destiny in the first 17-game season in NFL history was forever 8-9.
So, let’s roll with this:
San Francisco 49ers (+175) over the Los Angeles Rams
San Francisco will either have to start a hurt Jimmy Garoppolo or a rookie who played one game of FCS football in 2020 in what’s a de facto playoff game. It will put its leaky secondary up against the best wide receiver in football and Sean McVay’s pass-happy, field-stretching offense. The Rams need this win to lock down the NFC West and ensure a home playoff game next week.
But the Niners have figured out McVay lately. They’ve won five straight against Los Angeles. The Rams have only scored more than 20 points once in that stretch. That includes a 31-10 win in mid-November when Kyle Shanahan only called 20 passing plays. LA’s most efficient quarterback that day was punter Johnny Hekker, who threw one pass for two yards:
San Francisco did that despite a limited contribution from its pass rush — two sacks, four quarterback hits. Matthew Stafford hasn’t done much lately to suggest he’ll be better this time around. In fact, he’s looked a whole lot like the last guy McVay counted on to lead LA to the playoffs (well, maybe the second-to-last guy, shoutout to John Wolford):
The 49ers have more to play for than the Rams considering a loss could end their season. They’ve got recent history on their side. They get to face a quarterback who is slowly morphing into the guy he replaced last spring.
Which is how, despite Cooper Kupp and San Francisco’s deficient secondary, I landed on an upset.
Upset pick I like the most
Detroit Lions (+155) over the Green Bay Packers
Green Bay has nothing to play for and needs to keep Aaron Rodgers’ broken toe healing. This is welcome news for Detroit; the Lions are 4-8 in their last dozen games against the Packers, and 75 percent of those wins have come when Rodgers isn’t his team’s primary quarterback.
Rodgers has announced he’ll play in Week 18, but it’s unlikely he’ll finish the game since, you know, it’s a Week 18 game against the Lions. All signs point to him playing a couple series, throwing a touchdown pass, and then saying something snarky about Hub Arkush in his postgame press conference. That means it’s Jordan Love time at Ford Field.
Love will join a list of luminaries like Brett Hundley, Joe Callahan, and DeShone Kizer in a mop-up role to end the regular season. He’ll have to face a Detroit team with nothing to play for but pride and a head coach who is really, really into that sort of thing. The second-year quarterback struggled in his first NFL start against the Chiefs and their vulnerable secondary. While the Lions’ 29th-ranked passing defense will allow him a softer landing zone this time around, he’ll also likely be throwing to second-string guys like Equamineous St. Brown and Juwan Winfree in the third and fourth quarters.
Detroit is playing to build some momentum for year two of Campbell’s tenure. A win is unlikely to change its draft position. Green Bay is playing not to get hurt before next week’s playoff bye. I’m rolling with the team with more to play for Sunday, even if it’s just the difference between two and three wins in 2021.