One reason to cheer for each team still in the playoff hunt
Seven teams are vying for three open postseason spots in Week 18. If you're unsure about who to root for, we can help.
It’s hard to believe we’re already heading into the final week of the regular season. It’s much easier to believe that there’s a lot to be sorted out in the playoff race, especially in the AFC.
Only the Packers have clinched the No. 1 seed in the NFC. All other seeds will be decided this weekend, including which AFC team locks down the coveted first-round bye. The Titans, Chiefs, Bengals, and Patriots are all alive in that particular race.
But more interestingly are the teams still fighting for their playoff lives. In our first ever Week 18, seven squads will be competing for three wild card spots — two in the AFC and one in the NFC.
If your favorite (or least favorite) team is not one of those seven, then you might be ambivalent about who to root for on Sunday. That’s where we come in. Below, we’ve outlined one reason you can cheer for each of the seven in the playoff hunt and what they still have to do to make the postseason.
AFC
Indianapolis Colts (9-7)
% chance of making the playoffs: 89 (FiveThirtyEight), 82 (NY Times), 80.5 (FPI)
What they need to do to clinch: Beat the Jaguars OR losses by the Chargers, Steelers, and Patriots
One reason you should cheer for them: In the words (chant?) of Jim Irsay: Jonathan Taylor, M-V-P:
Maybe a 200+ rushing game against the Jaguars (certainly a possibility!) would be enough to propel Taylor to the MVP award. Whether or not he wins the league’s highest individual honor isn’t really the point (unfortunately, we’ll probably be stuck with lying-ass Aaron Rodgers or old-ass Tom Brady once again). Taylor has been the best running back by a mile this season and has been smashing records along the way.
So far this season, Taylor has a league-high 1,734 rushing yards and 18 touchdowns, and a league-high 2,076 scrimmage yards and 20 total touchdowns. That makes him the Colts’ single-season rushing leader (surpassing Edgerrin James), as well as the youngest player in NFL history with at least 2,000 scrimmage yards and 20 touchdowns in a season.
Not only is he a pleasure to watch on the field, but he’s also a highlight of the current season of Hard Knocks (JT and the cheerful Kenny Moore II are my faves). Taylor has earned the right to toot his own horn, but he never does. Every time he’s on camera, he comes across as humble and gracious:
Based on the way his teammates, coaches, and opponents respect and praise him, I don’t think it’s an act either. And that makes Taylor an easy guy to root for — and the Colts by extension.
Los Angeles Chargers (9-7)
% chance of making the playoffs: 51 (FiveThirtyEight), 53 (NY Times), 57.9 (FPI)
What they need to do to clinch: Beat or tie the Raiders
One reason you should cheer for them: Justin Herbert can earn his crown as a franchise quarterback by leading the Chargers to the postseason in his second season as a pro.
Unlike Philip Rivers before him, Herbert was thrown directly into the fire as a rookie behind a roster that had gone 5-11 the year prior. He outperformed expectations to make Rivers’ decampment for Indianapolis a distant memory and now has Los Angeles on the precipice of a playoff return.
Herbert, statistically, has been largely the same player he was as a rookie. His passer rating, yards per attempt, completion rate, touchdown rate, and yards per game all increased incrementally this fall. That doesn’t paint the picture of his on-field growth however; the fact he leads the league with five game-winning fourth-quarter drives in 2021 does.
Herbert was good as a rookie, but there was always the chance he’d fall victim to a cursed franchise like Rivers before him. He stepped up to the challenge in his sophomore year by mostly refusing to let the Chargers lose the kind of maddening games they’d dropped in years past.
But that was the regular season, and now he’s dealing with a de facto playoff game in Las Vegas. A win Sunday night could start the rewrite of the Chargers’ history. A loss would damn the team to at least one more season of doomed expectations.
Las Vegas Raiders (9-7)
% chance of making the playoffs: 54 (FiveThirtyEight), 53 (NY Times), 49.6 (FPI)
What they need to do to clinch: Beat the Chargers OR a tie with the Chargers + a Colts loss OR Colts and Steelers lose
One reason you should cheer for them: To prove Jon Gruden is a dolt.
Gruden took over a mediocre Raiders roster, dismantled it, acquired a bunch of draft picks, and then shaped a Las Vegas team in his image that was … mediocre. Interim head coach Rich Bisaccia had never been more than a special teams coordinator until Gruden’s resignation following the leak of racist, misogynistic, and homophobic emails led him to the top spot with the Raiders. He’s exactly as many games over .500 in the 2021 season as Gruden was in his five games before being forced out.
Vegas forced its way back into the playoff race with back-to-back-to-back wins over teams at the fringes of the playoff hunt (Cleveland, Denver, Indianapolis). The Chargers are theoretically a step up from that group and have already beaten the Raiders by two touchdowns this season. That, however, was with Gruden at the helm. What better way to tell the world he is not missed than to avenge that loss without him and secure the franchise’s second postseason bid since 2002?
Pittsburgh Steelers (8-7-1)
% chance of making the playoffs: 5 (FiveThirtyEight), 9 (NY Times), 8.3 (FPI)
What they need to do to clinch: Beat the Ravens + a Colts loss and a non-tie in Raiders-Chargers
One reason you should cheer for them: T.J. Watt is pretty good and a Steelers berth in the postseason proves the 2021 Detroit Lions were capable of hanging with at least one playoff team.
Other than that, woof. Ben Roethlisberger is shuffling back to the farm where he once used to chase Fraggles. He’s been mostly unwatchable and would be lovely to bet against in the postseason, especially given his penchant for stat lines where he throws 20+ passes for something like 72 yards. Pittsburgh would be worth watching in a Wild Card Round game just to see how opposing defenses deal with Watt and how slowly Roethlisberger’s weekly deep ball gets downfield.
Baltimore Ravens (8-8)
% chance of making the playoffs: 2 (FiveThirtyEight), 3 (NY Times), 3.6 (FPI)
What they need to do to clinch: Beat the Steelers + losses by the Colts, Chargers, and Dolphins
One reason you should cheer for them: Any game featuring this year’s Ravens is practically guaranteed to come down to the wire.
Unfortunately for the Ravens, those results haven’t gone their way lately, but overall, they’ve played in 11 one-score contests this season and have a 6-5 record in them. Four were of the walk-off variety.
Their only double-digit game in the last seven weeks was a loss to the Bengals when the Ravens were without both Lamar Jackson and backup Tyler Huntley. Even though injuries have caught up to the Ravens, they’ve never stopped competing. And if two two-point tries had gone their way, they’d be in the playoffs. (Of course, if any of their six one-possession wins had gone the opposite way, they’d be eliminated.)
As unlikely as it is for Baltimore to crash the playoff party, I’m confident that this team could deliver another late thriller like it’s done on a near-weekly basis this year. The Ravens haven’t really brought the excitement in the postseason with Jackson at quarterback, but after he earned his first playoff win last year, he’s due to end another streak.
NFC
San Francisco 49ers (9-7)
% chance of making the playoffs: 62 (FiveThirtyEight), 65 (NY Times), 60.1 (FPI)
What they need to do to clinch: Beat or tie the Rams OR the Saints lose or tie
One reason you should cheer for them: They have fun young playmakers on both sides of the ball.
It’s been an up-and-down season for the 49ers; at one point, it looked like Kyle Shanahan might not last as head coach past 2021. But they’ve lost just twice since their 3-5 start and more importantly, the future looks bright.
The Niners have gotten major contributions all season from players 25 years old and younger. That includes their No. 1 receiver/all-around weapon (Deebo Samuel), top rusher (Elijah Mitchell), leader in sacks (Nick Bosa), and leader in tackles (Fred Warner). Others, such as second-year receiver Brandon Aiyuk and edge rusher Arden Key, have come on strong in the second half.
The youngest member of the team, 21-year-old Trey Lance, answered the call last week when he led San Francisco to a win over the Texans:
The rookie might have to start again in Week 18 and/or the postseason if Jimmy Garoppolo’s thumb isn’t healed enough. Either way, this roster is loaded with burgeoning talent that’s worth watching. (Just try not to think about how many of its best players weren’t even alive the last time the 49ers won a Super Bowl, because we don’t need another reminder of our own mortality.)
New Orleans Saints (8-8)
% chance of making the playoffs: 38 (FiveThirtyEight), 35 (NY Times), 39.9 (FPI)
What they need to do to clinch: Beat the Falcons AND a 49ers loss
One reason you should cheer for them: They’re in the playoff race despite starting Jameis Winston, Trevor Siemian, Taysom Hill, and Ian Book at quarterback this season.
Typically that grouping would only deliver a top-five draft pick, but Sean Payton has beefed up his coaching bonafides by keeping this team in the playoff race and even beating the Packers and Buccaneers in the regular season.
The New Orleans defense is an absolute wrecking ball, so if you’re rooting for one of the NFC’s higher seeds and their explosive offense to get knocked out early, the Saints are the place to go. There’s no chance in hell this team wins a Super Bowl, but it can certainly ruin someone else’s season before collapsing into itself like a dying star.