NFL picks for a persistent Week 10

More down-to-the-wire games could be in the forecast.

Last week, I thought the environment was ripe for possible upsets. Instead, we saw fewer upsets in one week than in almost two years. 

It’s not that I was totally off; 10 games were decided by eight points or fewer, including three in which the favorite won in overtime. And my record for the week was good (10-4), though two of those misses came in the aforementioned overtime games. 

Still, it’s frustrating when you feel like something special is in the air and what actually happens … isn’t. But, we move forward and don’t give up. 

Week 10 started on a note similar to how Week 9 ended, with the underdog threatening the favorite, only to lose by a slim margin (at least the Bengals had the nerve to try for the two-point conversion, and the win, rather than settle for overtime). Perhaps the bigger story from that, though, is the Ravens’ comeback and Lamar Jackson’s persistence in the fourth quarter. 

Will that theme of perseverance carry over to this weekend? We’ll see if I’m right, but I’ll say yes — and that could mean another week of close contests.

Here are my picks for the rest of the 13 matchups, in bold, with the odds from DraftKings:

Giants “at” Panthers (+6.5)

Bills at Colts (+4)

Steelers at Commanders (-3)

Falcons at Saints (+3.5)

Vikings at Jaguars (+7)

Broncos at Chiefs (-7.5)

Patriots at Bears (-6)

49ers at Buccaneers (+6.5)

Titans at Chargers (-7)

Eagles at Cowboys (+7.5)

Jets at Cardinals (+2)

Lions at Texans (+3.5)

Dolphins at Rams (-1)

Before we preview the games, be sure to check out Christian’s picks at FTW.

QB injury report

On Thursday, six starting quarterbacks were listed on the injury report. Three were full participants (Patrick Mahomes, Derek Carr, Will Levis), one was a nonparticipant who is expected to play (Baker Mayfield), one was a limited participant who is likely out (Trevor Lawrence), and the other is out (Dak Prescott). 

Falcons over Saints 

I’m going back on a statement I made earlier this season, when I said I’d pick the Saints in their rematch with the Falcons in New Orleans. It’s possible they’ll get a post-coach firing bump, but I’m not going to count on it.

Vikings over Jaguars

It’s understandable if you forgot that Mac Jones was Trevor Lawrence’s backup. But yeah, that’s who’s in line to start against one of the top defenses in the NFL. 

Chiefs over Broncos

The last time Patrick Mahomes faced Vance Joseph’s defense, he struggled (0 touchdowns, two interceptions, 59.1 passer rating). If he’s hobbled at all, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a similar result. But I’m saving the first time I pick against the Chiefs for another week (like, maybe, next week). 

49ers over Bucs

The Buccaneers have stayed competitive even while missing their top two receivers, so they can win. I think that a more rested 49ers team, with Christian McCaffrey finally, will win. 

Chargers over Titans

Will Levis could be back in the lineup for the first time in a few weeks. Reminder: this season, the Titans have yet to win a game in which he’s thrown more than four passes (and one of those was a pick). 

Eagles over Cowboys

Two years ago, Cooper Rush started a game against the Eagles and threw three interceptions. These are not the same teams that played then — Philly’s defense ranks near the bottom of the league in takeaways — but I still expect it to end in the same way: with a Dallas loss.

Streaks ahead

Which streaks will end and which will continue?

Giants over Panthers

The NFL’s International Series can produce strange results, though this year the favorites have all won. Despite the Panthers coming off a win, I think that trend continues in Germany and the Giants break their four-game slide. 

Bills over Colts

This isn’t a gimme for the Bills. The Colts have only played in one-score games this year and could be due for a win after back-to-back losses, especially if Buffalo is looking ahead to next week against Kansas City. But I’ll take the better team here to push its winning streak to five straight. 

Bears over Patriots

The Bears keep finding new ways to be dysfunctional, so it wouldn’t be a shocker if they couldn’t pull it together against a much less talented team. Yet, they’ll be back home after two losses in a row, and I believe that will ground them enough to get back on the winning side.

Lions over Texans

The Lions have dropped four straight to the Texans and have only beaten them once before — and that was 20 years ago! I think the 2024 Lions are too good, and the Texans still too banged up on offense, for that streak to stay alive. 

The “just flip a coin” picks

This week, I’m going with a couple of minor upsets in this section. 

Steelers over Commanders

This could be a battle all game, but I’ll take the team that possesses the better defense — aka the Steelers — to pull it out. 

Jets over Cardinals

It never feels good to pick the Jets, and I can’t say I’m confident with this one. But the Cardinals’ heater has to end at some point. 

Dolphins over Rams

The Dolphins have lost their last three games by a total of 10 points, while the Rams have reeled off three in a row. Both teams just seem like they’re primed for a regression to the mean.