NFL picks for a confident Week 4

This week will be better, this week will be better, this week will be better ...

Well, here we go again. So far this season, my picks have gone from pretty good in Week 1 to below-average in Week 2 to possibly my worst picks ever last week. 

Part of that is because we’ve had a lot of upsets the last two weeks, and part of it is because I keep betting (theoretically, not with real money) on the wrong underdogs. 

I was full of doubts last week and I said as much in the newsletter. And maybe that’s my problem. Maybe I need to project confidence and manifest a better record. 

So let’s take a look at my 100 percent accurate picks for Week 4! As always, the teams that I think — no, the teams that I know — will win are in bold, with the odds from DraftKings listed after.

Broncos at Jets (-7.5)

Vikings at Packers (-3)

Steelers at Colts (+1.5)

Eagles at Buccaneers (+1.5)

Bengals at Panthers (+4.5)

Jaguars at Texans (-6.5)

Rams at Bears (-3)

Saints at Falcons (-2.5)

Patriots at 49ers (-10.5)

Commanders at Cardinals (-3.5)

Chiefs at Chargers (+7)

Browns at Raiders (-1.5)

Bills at Ravens (-2.5)

Titans at Dolphins (-1)

Seahawks at Lions (-3.5)

If you question my choices because of the past two weeks, you can check out Christian’s picks too. We’re both going to rebound this week — I can feel it.

The biggest spreads

In three matchups this week, the point spread is 7+, whether they should be that high or not.

Jets over Broncos

I don’t know about the line, but I don’t think Zach Wilson will get payback against his old team. Not that he’ll be playing unless both Bo Nix and Jarrett Stidham get hurt. And in that scenario, I’d feel good about the Jets covering. 

49ers over Patriots

Before the season started, the 49ers were a Super Bowl favorite and the Patriots were in the running for the No. 1 pick in next year’s draft. That’s still the case, even though they have the same record heading into their Week 4 showdown.

Chiefs over Chargers

If you had asked me two weeks ago, I might have paused before taking the Chiefs. But now the Chargers are either without or could be without Justin Herbert, Joey Bosa, Joe Alt, Rashawn Slater, and Derwin James. As such, there was no pause.

In due time

Four teams other than the Chiefs remain perfect, while three squads are still winless. Whose streak will end?

Vikings over Packers

As surprisingly good as Sam Darnold has been this year, I’m picking the Vikings for another reason. I’m now a diehard believer in Brian Flores’ defense, and even if Jordan Love starts, I have to side with Minnesota. 

Steelers over Colts

Neither team is blowing opponents out or getting blown out (in fact, the Steelers have yet to lose). That suggests that this one will be close, as the line indicates. Turnovers could be a key deciding factor in the outcome. Indy has turned it over six times this season, while Pittsburgh has only once.

Bengals over Panthers

It’s the Bengals, not the Panthers, who are still looking for their first win. I think they’ll finally get it too, against their former quarterback Andy Dalton.

Texans over Jaguars

Both of these teams played poorly last week, but only one is at a crossroads. After the Jaguars got their butts kicked by the Bills in primetime, Doug Pederson said that the time for speeches is over. So the Jags will either flip the switch this weekend against a Houston team whose injuries are piling up, or they won’t. I’m guessing  the latter happens — and that Pederson’s seat will be dangerously warm.

Ravens over Bills

Josh Allen is currently the MVP frontrunner and for good reason. He’s got Buffalo’s offense rolling, even without a ton of star power around him. Yet it feels kinda like they’re due for a loss. The Ravens finally got a win last week, despite almost blowing another lead. Maybe they can do it again. 

Titans over Dolphins

Just like the Bills are due for a loss, the Titans are due for a win. And wouldn’t you know it: Will Levis’ last win as a starter came against the Dolphins on a Monday night. And that was with  Tua Tagovailoa at quarterback for Miami. He is obviously sidelined for the rematch, and in his place will be … I don’t actually know.

Lions over Seahawks

I will always assume that weird things will happen when either of these teams plays on a Monday night, especially against each other. The Seahawks topped the Lions in overtime last season, and Detroit is pretty banged up. But I think the Lions will rally around those injured guys, including Frank Ragnow, who they had to “put down” this week (don’t worry, he is not dead).

The “just flip a coin” picks 

Even though my picks are terrific this week, there were admittedly a few tough decisions to make.

Buccaneers over Eagles

Tampa’s coming off a loss in Denver, while Philly is coming off a win in New Orleans. Still, the Bucs have owned the Eagles in recent years, so I’ll give them the edge again in this rematch from the playoffs.

Bears over Rams

Seemingly no one is healthy for the Rams, but that didn’t matter last week when they came back to beat the 49ers. The Bears are much healthier — Keenan Allen could be back, which should help Caleb Williams — but have a worse coaching staff. When in doubt, though, I’ll go with the team that doesn’t have to travel a couple of time zones for a game.

Falcons over Saints

It’s a new season, but my Falcons-Saints pick remains the same as ever: I will predict these hated rivals will split the season series, with the home team winning each time. 

Cardinals over Commanders

The Commanders are off to a great start, and Jayden Daniels has quickly jumped into the lead for Offensive Rookie of the Year. That said, they’re traveling across the country on a short week.  Kliff Kingsbury might know all of Kyler Murray’s secrets, but he’s coaching Washington’s offense, not defense. I think the Cardinals can put up points, denying Kingsbury his revenge over the franchise that fired him.

Browns over Raiders

Whenever I think one of these teams has turned a corner, they prove me wrong. Whenever I write off one of these teams, they prove me wrong. I would normally expect the Raiders to bounce back after Antonio Pierce called them out, but their injuries worry me. So I guess I’ll go with the Browns. Uh, I mean, [self-assured voice] I WILL go with the Browns.