NFL picks for a potentially upset-heavy Week 9
That doesn't mean a ton of underdogs WILL win. But the potential is there this weekend.
Last week was more upset-heavy than I thought it would be. The underdog prevailed in six of the 16 matchups, including two in which the heavy favorite (by at least a touchdown) lost.
I’m not necessarily predicting a similar outcome in Week 9, but I can see how this weekend could give us a bunch of surprises.
First, let’s take a look at the upsets I did pick. My game picks are below in bold, along the odds from DraftKings.
Broncos at Ravens (-8)
Dolphins at Bills (-6)
Commanders at Giants (+4)
Raiders at Bengals (-7)
Cowboys at Falcons (-3)
Chargers at Browns (+1.5)
Saints at Panthers (+7)
Patriots at Titans (-3.5)
Jaguars at Eagles (-7.5)
Bears at Cardinals (-1.5)
Lions at Packers (+2.5)
Rams at Seahawks (+1)
Colts at Vikings (-5)
Buccaneers at Chiefs (-8.5)
You can also see which upsets Christian took (or didn’t) at FTW.
Now, let’s talk about how the underdogs could come out on top this weekend.
An upset seems unlikely buuuut
I’m backing the favorites in all of these contests, though I wouldn’t be completely shocked if any of them lost.
Ravens over Broncos
If the Ravens hadn’t lost to the Browns, I’d be more inclined to give Denver a chance. It’s still possible, but I think Lamar Jackson and Co. will be ready to get the bad taste of last week out of their mouths.
Bills over Dolphins
It’s never a sure thing when teams this familiar with each other play. But considering the Bills easily handled the Dolphins earlier this season, before Buffalo was on the roll it currently is, I’m sticking with the favorite.
Eagles over Jaguars
Jalen Hurts has been excellent since the Eagles’ bye week. So has Philly’s offense as a whole. And coming to town next is one of the worst defenses in the NFL. Granted, the Jaguars gave the Packers a game last week, and they could do the same this week. I’m not counting on it, though.
Vikings over Colts
The Colts play competitive football each week, and maybe switching QBs will be just what they need to pull off the primetime upset. But the vibes seem all off in Indy, and I think after 10 days’ rest, the Vikings will get back on track.
Chiefs over Buccaneers
I’d entertain a possible upset if the Bucs were healthier. Alas, they’re not.
An upset could be brewing, maybe?
I’m not calling for an upset in all of these matchups, but I could easily see how one could occur.
Commanders over Giants
I keep waiting for the Commanders to come back to earth a bit and instead they find miracles. It wouldn’t take an act of God for the Giants to win — NFC East matchups are weird like that and the Commanders barely won their first meeting. But Washington’s defense has gotten better since then.
Bengals over Raiders
Both of these teams have underachieved this season but have also had times when they look like an actual team. While I trust the Bengals more, I can’t say any outcome would really surprise me.
Cowboys over Falcons
The Falcons have been the better team this season, while the banged-up Cowboys are in a bit of a free fall — and it doesn’t seem like reinforcements are coming quite yet. But the Falcons have a way of losing these types of games, so I’ll pick the upset.
Saints over Panthers
Derek Carr is back, and his best performance of the season came against Carolina. That was in Week 1, though, and even the Panthers have won more recently than the Saints. I believe New Orleans’ losing streak will end, even if I’m not as confident as I would have been earlier in the season.
Patriots over Titans
Come spring, the Pats and Titans will both likely be sitting at or near the top of the draft order. In other words, these are bad teams. There’s one big reason I’m taking New England, however: every team that has played the Lions this season has gone on to lose its next game. And wouldn’t you know it, but the Titans played the Lions last week (and got creamed).
Lions over Packers
Speaking of the Lions, they’ve spent the past month mowing down their opponents, more or less. The only ones who gave them a little trouble were the Vikings, and another NFC North foe could do the same. The Packers are a good team, and if Detroit is slightly off its game at Lambeau, then Green Bay could win. I’m not going to pick against a team that’s firing on all cylinders like the Lions are, though.
The “just flip a coin” picks
There are a few games this week with razor-thin odds.
Chargers over Browns
The Chargers haven’t won two in a row since the start of the season. The Browns haven’t done that all year. Barring a tie, one of these teams can start a little streak. I’m more confident in the Chargers to do it, but I also don’t want to discount the boost the Browns have gotten since not having Deshaun Watson at QB anymore.
Cardinals over Bears
Will the Bears be extra motivated to move past last week’s disastrous Hail Mary loss, or will the stench still linger? It could go either way! However, all does not seem right in Chicago.
Seahawks over Rams
The Rams are getting healthier (maybe) and have won two straight, while the Seahawks are coming off a double-digit, unraveling type of loss against the Bills. It might seem like they’re going in opposite directions, but just when you think an NFC West team is zigging, it zags instead.