The next big wave of NFL moves we'd like to see
From Julio Jones' next home to the underrated free agents who will inevitably make a huge difference in 2021
June is almost here, which will bring us the official start of summer and what is, on average, the slowest month in the NFL news cycle. (Relatively, anyway. Lord knows the NFL never stays quiet too long.)
However, it does contain one of the most important dates on the NFL calendar: June 1. That’s when salary cap space starts to open up and teams can start making moves again. Many players who are cut earlier in the offseason are designated as “post-June 1” releases so their former teams won’t be on the hook for a huge dead money charge to that year’s payroll. The date is also significant when it comes to the compensatory pick formula; free agents signed after June 1 don’t factor into the equation.
The details of why June 1 matters are pretty dry, unless you’re a salary cap nerd (no judgment!). What most of us care about are the transactions that happen afterward, whether a player is traded to a new team or has just been waiting for his opportunity to sign somewhere as a free agent.
With June 1 coming up on Tuesday*, we sat down (virtually) to discuss a few moves we expect to see, and/or would like to see, next.
*Quick housekeeping note: We will not have our usual Monday newsletter due to Memorial Day.
What do you think happens with Julio Jones?
Sarah Hardy: Now that we know Jones wants out of Atlanta, and that the Falcons aren’t exactly thrilled that his trade request is a public matter, I’m guessing Jones will be playing for a new team for the first time in his career.
In Monday’s newsletter, I identified a few teams he could be dealt to, and to me, the 49ers make the most sense. Jones would be joining a roster that’s ready to contend, and he’d be reuniting with his former OC Kyle Shanahan, who oversaw the best two-year stretch of Jones’ already-elite career.
The 49ers get a surefire No. 1 receiver. The Falcons get some much-needed salary cap relief. Jones gets another shot at the Super Bowl. Everyone wins … except for Falcons fans. But that’s to be expected.
Christian D’Andrea: While I don’t buy into the onslaught of “REPORT: Julio is headed to…” claims from people with 3,000 followers on Twitter, I do think there’s some juice to the Patriots’ rumors. New England hasn’t been shy about trading for established WR1 types in the past -- Brandin Cooks, Randy Moss, (loud sigh) Chad Ochocinco -- and Atlanta would love to move its star wideout out of the NFC to reduce future exposure to any revenge games.
The fact he hasn’t moved yet suggests none of those AFC teams have come forward to offer a first round pick. The Titans and Ravens will likely be in the mix as well, but let’s go off the beaten path to find Julio’s 2021 team. The Raiders have been surprisingly quiet during trade talks, but it would be an extremely Jon Gruden move to make a big splash and add a future Hall of Famer to kick off his team’s true debut season in Las Vegas. Considering his current wideout lineup looks like this ...
I wouldn’t be surprised if he swoops in with an 11th hour offer that finally gives the Falcons the Day 1 pick for which they’ve been waiting.
Ryan Van Bibber: Everyone in the league knows now that the Falcons can’t keep him around because of that contract, and they also know now that Jones doesn’t want to be there anymore either. So why pony up a first? That’s why Christian’s scenario of Gruden swooping in makes the most sense to me. Gruden is probably the only one who would give the Falcons a first-round pick at this point.
I wonder if having Julio Jones to throw to would finally sell Gruden on Derek Carr?
Are you expecting any (other) notable trades?
SH: I’ve been saying — for months! — the Eagles would either cut Zach Ertz or trade him any day now. And it still hasn’t happened! I might as well stick with the prediction in case I’m proven right, though.
One of Ertz’s former teammates, current Cardinals linebacker Jordan Hicks, has received permission to seek a trade after Arizona drafted Zaven Collins in the first round last month. So what about a Ertz-for-Hicks swap between these two bird franchises?
The Cardinals have the salary cap space to handle Ertz’s contract, and they could use tight end help. Trading Hicks after June 1 would also save them around $3 million. The Eagles don’t have much spending room at all but Ertz’s departure will free up $12.5 million, which is more than twice Hicks’ cap hit. His return to Philadelphia would fill both a need at linebacker and a veteran leadership role in the locker room. This deal would make a lot of sense for both sides.
CD: Ertz isn’t the only tight end on the market, either! Former first round picks David Njoku and O.J. Howard are both coming off injury-marred seasons and coming up on the final year of their rookie contracts. They each have 2021 salaries of around $6 million, which makes them a bit expensive given their NFL resumes, but each player is an athletic, versatile piece with a high ceiling as a field-stretching, seam-roasting target.
The Browns have plenty of 2021 cap space, but could move on from Njoku with Austin Hooper and Harrison Bryant on the roster. They’d likely have to eat some of his outgoing salary, but could pick up a useful early Day 3 pick in return. Howard is a bit of a tougher sell given last year’s torn Achilles and the fact he once did this in a real life football game:
But with Gronk and Cameron Brate on the roster, it could make sense for the Bucs to move him now rather than lose him for nothing next offseason.
RVB: If I were the Lions I’d see what I could get for Trey Flowers and take the best offer that came up. They can’t cut him because it would leave $20 million in dead cap space. Granted, that also makes him hard to move via trade, but he’s just not the kind of player a team in their situation can afford to keep around.
Another name that might be worth watching is Sterling Shepard. He got bumped down the depth chart when the Giants signed Kenny Golladay and drafted Kadarius Toney (though he should play mostly in the slot.) They’re not in cap trouble or anything, so there’s no huge priority to move him, but freeing up $7 million with a trade would at least give them some flexibility to make a move or two.
There are still several big-name free agents remaining, like Richard Sherman and Mitchell Schwartz. Where do you think some of them will land?
SH: I think Sherman will wind up back with the 49ers, and the same with K.J. Wright and the Seahawks. If Schwartz doesn’t retire, I can picture him joining his old teammate Eric Fisher in Indianapolis.
Another reunion I wouldn’t be surprised to see: Todd Gurley and Jared Goff in Detroit. Dan Campbell, who enjoys talking about wrecking knees, would get a third-string back with one knee that has been destroyed.
Melvin Ingram recently visited the Dolphins, and he’s the exact kind of defensive veteran Brian Flores loves. And the Ravens have been flirting with Justin Houston for a while. The 32-year-old edge rusher could help make up for the losses of Matthew Judon and Yannick Ngakoue in free agency, and he could take a little pressure off of rookies Odafe Oweh and Daelin Hayes as they learn the ropes of Baltimore’s defense.
CD: I agree that Sherman’s most likely destination is San Francisco, where he’s written a strong second chapter to his career. KJ Wright has lost a step in coverage but remains useful against the run. His lack of suitors suggests most teams view him as a rotational guy rather than a full-time starter, which is a role he’d fit in Seattle assuming he’s willing to settle. Schwartz has too much good football left in him to retire at 32. Let’s say he lands with the Raiders after they realize they just drafted Alex Leatherwood to be their starting right tackle.
Geno Atkins would likely be a Hall of Famer had he played the last decade anywhere other than Cincinnati. Let’s add him to the 49ers’ pass rushing rotation to let him see what a playoff win actually feels like. Kawaan Short is another veteran defensive tackle in a similar mold. No coach likes adding his old players quite like former Panthers DC Sean McDermott, so let’s make that reunion happen and hope Short stays healthy this fall (he’s only played five games the last two seasons.
Golden Tate could be a Packer in GM Brian Gutekunst’s lasted lackluster effort to please Aaron Rodgers. Kwon Alexander should take his time healing up, then join the Buccaneers’ title defense. And, the most important remaining free agent, Thomas Morstead, should sign wherever the hell he wants because he’s just an all-around good dude and the league is worse without him in it.
RVB: Melvin Ingram would be a good fit for the Giants, maybe a way to use some extra cap money if they move on from Shepard. The Chiefs should make a move for Brian Poole, a steady slot corner that would help them against the Raiders and the Broncos, the later being pretty loaded offensively. Better still, the Chiefs could sign Russell Okung or Morgan Moses to work the right tackle spot. Mike Remmers is currently the starter there, and that’s a recipe for disaster.
Which under-the-radar free agent could be a steal?
SH: Malik Hooker has first-round pedigree and has proven to be a ballhawk — on average, he’s forced a turnover in 25 percent of the games he’s played in the NFL. The problem, of course, is that the ex-Colts safety hasn’t played in all that many games (36 in four seasons, including just two last year).
Wherever he lands, Hooker will likely end up on a prove-it deal, and it could be a sneaky-good signing if he can stay healthy. He’s the former player that Urban Meyer should’ve brought to Jacksonville, not Tim Tebow. But hey, it’s not too late for the Jaguars to add Hooker too — if Tebow would even allow someone with that last name on his team.
CD: This year’s remaining free agent pool reads like a list of guys I badly wanted to be good coming out of college who then weren’t. Jake Butt! P.J. Hall! Obi Melifonwu! Gareon Conley! CARNEGIE MELLON EDGE RUSHER TURNED LONG SNAPPER BRIAN KHOURY!
A few lingering names present real value. One is former Falcon/Jet Brian Poole. The slot corner plays a role of increasing importance in the NFL. While a tanking New York team cut his snap count last fall he still allowed just a 61.6 passer rating in coverage. He’s only 28 years old and would be a solid addition for a needy secondary -- someone like the Titans or Cowboys could certainly use the extra depth he brings to the table.
RVB: I want to say Olivier Vernon, but a blown Achilles means a long recovery. Nine months is an optimistic timeline, and he hurt his heel in the last week of the regular season last year. However, he could be a nice mid-season addition for a team that needs a little pass rushing depth, if healthy. Vernon had nine sacks, all during his last eight games in 2020. The Bills should keep an eye on his situation. That’s the kind of depth chart move that can put a contender over the top.
Aaron Rodgers publicly addressed his rift with the Packers earlier this week. Did that change your opinion on what his future holds?
SH: Nah. I’ve always assumed Rodgers and the front office would come to some sort of detente this summer (probably by redoing his contract).
Rodgers could take this team all the way to a championship, which he knows and the Packers know. There would be less certainty of that (and much less familiarity) if he went to Denver or wherever, and if he stays, he could do something that Brett Favre never did in Green Bay: win two Super Bowls. As for the Packers, they can kiss any Super Bowl hopes goodbye if Jordan Love starts this season — if he’s even ready to.
I’m less confident now that Rodgers will finish his career in Green Bay, but until a trade or retirement or full-time Jeopardy hosting gig happens, then I’m banking on him still being in a Packers uniform in 2021.
CD: Rodgers is playing every card he can to improve his situation. Unfortunately, he’s brought a Pokemon deck to a poker game. Rodgers’ only real move is to hold out through training camp since he’s under contract the next three seasons. He might do that to give Green Bay a better idea of how screwed they’d be with Jordan Love, but I still can’t see a world where the Packers trade Rodgers and don’t immediately destroy their title hopes.
RVB: Lol, no. He’ll be under center for the Packers in Week 1, having spent the week leading up to that point tisk-tisking the press for blowing it all out of proporportion. 2022 is a different story, but before we get to that point, Rodgers will definitely end the season by making some passive-aggressive comment to reignite the whole thing (barring a Super Bowl, and even then I’m not so sure.)