J.J. Watt is going to make someone very, very happy
And he's not the only veteran who's going to be a difference maker on the free agent market this year. Also, a very NFL Valentine's Day.
Five productive veterans … who are probably getting cut (or traded) this offseason
On Wednesday we talked about 2021’s crop of free agents and the guys most likely to earn life-changing money this spring. They may be a minority this offseason. With the NFL’s salary cap set to fall by somewhere around $20 million for the upcoming season, a good chunk of veterans are about to see their pricy contracts torn up by teams looking to shed ballast to keep their rosters afloat.
A $180 million cap means 13 of the league’s 32 teams currently have more money tied up in 2021 contracts than will be allowed. Cuts will be made, and these teams will have to make difficult decisions when it comes to big name players who haven’t lived up to their contracts … and some that have.
We’ve already seen one big name fall into free agency when the Broncos released cornerback A.J. Bouye and his $11.7 million salary from their books. Denver was fortunate; the veteran didn’t leave any dead money — the remnants of contractually obligated guarantees — to languish on their cap sheet into the upcoming season. His eight-figure cap hold and declining play (he allowed a 108.9 passer rating in coverage in 2020) made him an easy cut for the Broncos’ brain trust.
There will be more obvious decisions as the official start to the new league year approaches. There will also be some difficult, painful ones that come with tearful goodbyes and maybe even a full-page “thank you fans” in a local newspaper. Here are the names who could suddenly pop up on the open market in 2021.
1. J.J. Watt, DL
2020 team: Texans
2021 cap hit: $17.5 million
2021 dead money (pre June 1): $0
2021 dead money (post June 1): $0
This one hurts, so let’s get it out of the way first. Watt is the biggest star in franchise history and an icon in Houston after his Hurricane Harvey relief efforts raised more than $41 million for the community. Though he wasn’t as impactful in 2020 as he was in the mid-2010s, he still managed to play his second full 16-game season since 2015.
Unfortunately, he did so for a 4-12 team that may be the league’s most dysfunctional franchise. The Texans are a mess on the field, in the cap sheet, and in their truest spirit. Collapse is their business. Business, with Jack Easterby youth pastoring his way through major team-building decisions, is booming.
Houston is slated to be more than $13 million over next year's cap despite a roster that cratered its way to one of the three worst records in the NFL. The Texans can’t add talent through the first two rounds of this year’s draft because former coach/GM Bill O’Brien traded them away. While the smart move would be to treat 2021 as a rebuilding year and nurse their cap space back to life while allowing young players to state their case as future building blocks, this franchise doesn’t do smart moves.
That means Watt, Houston pillar and positive presence on and off the field, will either have to restructure his contract or face free agency. He won’t have much leverage in those talks. He’s going to be 32 years old next season and is coming off his least productive year as a pro. BUT, he still either led or tied for the team lead in sacks, QB hits, passes batted down, and fumbles forced. PFF loves him. There’s still tread on those tires.
If Watt is cut loose, he’ll have his share of suitors. Could a homecoming to Wisconsin be in order? He’s unlikely to recoup the $17.5 million he’s slated to make next season, but he should still command a decent price from a club desperate for a versatile, pass-rushing lineman with the flexibility to handle multiple roles on the defensive front.
UPDATE FROM THE MORNING AFTER THIS WAS WRITTEN:
Well, that’s that. Watt asked for his release. Houston obliged. Great offseason you’ve got there, Texans. Really cool.
Who will be in the market for a free agent Watt? It depends on price, but the Packer pipe dream persists. He’d immediately shore up a poor run defense -- his four broken or missed tackles and 1.4 yard tackle depth showcased just how fundamentally strong he remains. The Chargers could swap him in for Melvin Ingram, who may leave as a free agent (though he’d have to move from Houston’s 3-4 to LA’s 4-3 setup). He’d add a veteran presence up front in Cleveland much like Sheldon Richardson has, though the Browns may be cash strapped if they sign Baker Mayfield to a front-loaded contract extension after his bounceback 2020.
The Dolphins have cap space, a defensive minded head coach, and the desire to keep adding pieces to a surging rebuild. The Buccaneers can offer him the chance to chase a ring as part of a dominant unit. The Colts are in a similar spot, only without a quarterback. The Bengals, Jaguars, Football Team, and Jets could all use his services, though seem unlikely landing spots due to fit, opportunity, or plain cursed-ness.
Either way, Watt’s a top 50 free agent who’ll be hungry to prove his limited counting stats from 2020 were the product of Houston’s shit whirlpool rather than a significant dropoff on his end. After spending a full decade with the Texans, he deserves something nice.
2. Carlos Dunlap, DL
2020 team: Bengals, Seahawks
2021 cap hit: $14,037,500
2021 dead money (pre June 1): $0
2021 dead money (post June 1): $0
Dunlap has been very good for a very long time. In 11 seasons, he’s racked up 87.5 sacks and 241 quarterback hits. And, somehow, has been a part of zero playoff wins (thanks, Bengals!).
The veteran defensive end was unhappy in Cincinnati, much like Sisypheus was unhappy about having to roll a boulder up a mountain every day. Unlike Sisypheus, he was granted a reprieve when he was traded to Seattle. There, he dialed his numbers back up to match those of his mid-2010s prime: five sacks, 14 QB hits, six tackles for loss, and just one credited missed tackle in eight games as a Seahawk.
Pete Carroll would love to bring him back for 2021, but his cap situation is tenuous. His team has only $4 million in spending room this offseason, and that’s before coming to terms on a contract extension for safety Jamal Adams, for whom they shipped two first-round picks to the Jets. If Seattle wants to keep players like K.J. Wright, Bruce Irvin, Chris Carson, or Cedric Ogbuehi around — they’re all pending free agents — the easiest place to create the cash to afford them could come from releasing or restructuring Dunlap’s costly deal.
Like Watt, he’s at risk of an age-based decline. Unlike Watt, he’s coming off a big season and has only missed three games since becoming a regular starter in 2013. The Seahawks should do everything they can to keep him in town, but if push comes to shove, he’ll be a valuable hired gun for another contender.
3. Jimmy Garoppolo, QB
2020 team: 49ers
2021 cap hit: $23.6m
2021 dead money (pre June 1): $2.8m
2021 dead money (post June 1): $1.4m
We’ve already covered the Garoppolo situation here. General manager (and Class of 2021 Hall of Famer) John Lynch has several balls to keep in the air this offseason thanks to pending free agents Trent Williams, Jason Verrett, Richard Sherman, and Kyle Juszczyk as well as extension-eligible All-Pro linebacker Fred Warner. If he wants to keep the band together, the most obvious sacrifice would be the high-priced quarterback who has only started more than six games once in the past four seasons.
Lynch and the rest of the executive team would love to offload Garoppolo via trade, but his buyers may be limited thanks to the $20m+ he’d take up in cap space for anyone bringing him aboard. Bill Belichick and the Patriots would likely love to have him as a buy-low candidate, but their patience in 2020 (getting Cam Newton at a fraction of his contracted Panthers salary) suggests they’d be willing to wait out the Niners and bring him back to the fold as a free agent at a smaller cost.
Garoppolo brings several red flags with him wherever he lands. He’s dealt with injury in the majority of his seasons as a viable starter (2016, 2018, 2020). His average target depth has dropped each of the past two years, suggesting limited confidence in his deep ball. He fell apart at the worst possible time for his 2019 NFC champion team, allowing Patrick Mahomes to earn his first Super Bowl ring.
Still, he’ll only be 29 years old at the start of next season and has plenty of experience as an above-average quarterback who can limit mistakes and play efficient football. His market may not develop like Matthew Stafford’s did, but he may be more appealing to needy teams than Carson Wentz after the Eagle QB’s disastrous 2020.
4. Kwon Alexander, LB
2020 team: Saints
2021 cap hit: $13,156,125
2021 dead money (pre June 1): $0
2021 dead money (post June 1): $0
This is not an assessment of Alexander’s play on the field. He’s very good! It is, rather, a damning indictment of just how screwed up the Saints’ cap management has been.
New Orleans headed into 2021 a projected $100 MILLION OVER THE SALARY CAP. Drew Brees restructured his contract to lessen that load in what may be his first step toward retirement, but even that and a smaller-than-expected cap decrease have still left the Saints some $77 million past the spending limit.
This is going to create some very tough decisions down the line on young stars like Ryan Ramczyk and Marshon Lattimore. It will be easier to come to a decision on Alexander, who came to the team midseason in a trade from San Francisco. The former Pro Bowler was used unevenly in New Orleans; he appeared in at least 87 percent of the Niners’ defensive snaps before being traded, but played under 75 percent of the Saints’ snaps in the majority of his games with the team. He missed the postseason due to injury and hasn’t played more than a dozen games in a season since 2016.
When he’s on the field, however, he remains a rangy inside tackler capable of snuffing out runs and short passing routes. There’s a premium market for MLB types in the NFL right now — Joe Schobert got a $53 million deal to leave the Browns, after all — so there’s a chance Alexander could be traded in exchange for inexpensive draft assets. If that market fails to materialize, there’s just no way New Orleans can justify keeping his eight-figure salary on their disastrous cap sheet.
5. Zach Ertz, TE
2020 team: Eagles
2021 cap hit: $12,471,500
2021 dead money (pre June 1): $7,769,500
2021 dead money (post June 1): $4,221,500
Ertz didn’t get the extension he wanted in Philadelphia, so an injury-riddled 2020 may be his last with the team for whom he’d racked up 594 catches, three Pro Bowl invites, and one Super Bowl ring. He won’t be going out on a high note. The 30-year-old put up career lows in catch rate (50 percent), yards per target (4.7), yards per catch (9.3), receiving yards (335), and touchdowns (one).
This, along with Dallas Goedert’s ascension to the TE role, suggests a split even though Ertz will carry a fair amount of dead cash on the Eagles’ future cap. If he’s designated a post-June 1 release, he’d still free up more than $8 million in space for a team projected to land nearly $50 million past the cap as currently constructed.
Was Ertz’s dropoff age related, or just a product of the disaster unfolding around him in Philly? You can make a case for both. His catchable pass rate fell from 87 percent in 2018’s Pro Bowl year to 76 percent last fall. At the same time, his drop rate (10 percent) hit a career high and his yards-after-catch plummeted to a career-low 2.7. It’s tough to look at his level of play and his age and think he’ll be worth $12m+ in 2021.
Of course, with a new head coach and Carson Wentz wanting a trade while being *extremely* difficult to get rid of, Ertz is just one of many, many problems the Eagles face this spring. — CD
A Very NFL Valentine’s Day
With Valentine’s Day around the corner, I thought I’d check in on our three current NFL quarterback/celebrity pairings. All three couples are very different from one another and aren’t exactly relatable, by virtue of being rich and famous with exquisite bone structure. Still, they each offer their own lesson in relationships.
The married couple who has each other’s back: Tom Brady and Gisele
Gisele smartly stayed away from the Bucs’ Super Bowl celebration, where Tom Brady realized his true Florida self by getting hammered on a boat. However, she was cheering him on at the Super Bowl with their kids:
While my instinct is to roll my eyes when her caption includes the sentence, “Over the years I have seen you overcome so much adversity, physically and emotionally” about Tom effin’ Brady, I stopped myself before getting too annoyed. That’s her husband and she’s allowed to be biased.
It wouldn’t be the first time, either. Gisele famously defended Brady when she told a friend, "My husband can not f****ing throw the ball and catch the ball at the same time” after the Patriots’ second Super Bowl loss to the Giants. (As we learned years later, she was right that he couldn’t catch the ball.) She got crap for it then — even though she didn’t say it to reporters or tweet it out — but there’s nothing wrong with standing up for your partner.
The couple who acts as a team: Russell Wilson and Ciara
As they approach their fifth wedding anniversary, Russell Wilson continues to worship Ciara and spend almost every waking hour of the day with her, which I’m not saying with any intended snark. I think it’s very nice how much they seem to love each other and work together as a team:
Although Wilson has been active in the Seattle community since he was first drafted, he’s started to speak up more about issues that matter to him in recent years. This past season, he won the Walter Payton Man of the Year Award for his charity work (including helping feed those hit hard during the pandemic) and his involvement in the Black Lives Matter movement.
I don’t know how much to credit Ciara for his increased role in social justice issues, but she’s certainly helped him reveal more of his personality. And if her support is also helping Wilson learn how to advocate himself as a quarterback who is tired of getting sacked an average of 44 times a season, then even better.
The “two peas in a pod” couple: Aaron Rodgers and Shailene Woodley
Just days after Aaron Rodgers’ relationship with actress Shailene Woodley became public, he oh-so-casually mentioned during his MVP acceptance speech that he was engaged:
He also at one point thanked Jodie Foster (?), who’s a big Packers fan (??) and maybe set the two up (???).
At first glance, the Packers’ longtime quarterback and The OC’s original Kaitlin Cooper don’t seem like an obvious couple. But when you think about it, it makes perfect sense because both are not-so-secret weirdos.
Over the years, Woodley has publicly discussed eating clay, using sunshine to prevent yeast infections, making her own medicine and toothpaste, and moving into a WiFi-less cabin when she was 18.
Meanwhile, Rodgers has made up his own fraternity and took the joke pretty far, expressed belief in the chemtrail conspiracy theory, claimed to have seen a UFO, continued to like A LOT of Russell Okung’s cryptocurrency bro tweets, and, as has been well documented, cut off communication with his family.
The engagement may have happened quickly, but sometimes when you know, you know. I think it’s important to share similar interests with your partner, and I sincerely hope they have a happy future together, even if it means we’ll have to listen to their warnings about the dangers of deodorant, Bigfoot sightings, and suspicions about a mind-control, weather-manipulative research lab in Alaska. — SH