Five simple rules for drafting an NFL wide receiver
Plus five players on the trading block, and a very rational take on the draft.
2020 was a tremendous year for rookie wide receivers. Justin Jefferson had one of the best debuts in NFL history thanks to an 88-catch, 1400-yard campaign. CeeDee Lamb nearly had a 1,000-yard season despite having to play with quarterbacks like Andy Dalton, Garrett Gilbert, and Ben DiNucci. Eight different rookie WRs had at least 50 catches.
2021 could be even bigger.
College stars like Ja’Marr Chase, Jaylen Waddle, and reigning Heisman Trophy winner DeVonta Smith are all set to join the league this spring. ESPN’s Mel Kiper selected seven wideouts in the first 33 picks of his latest mock draft. With all the slot time Florida tight end Kyle Pitts is likely to put in as a pro, you could make the argument that nearly a quarter of this year’s Day 1 picks could be receivers — more than last spring’s prolific pass-catching haul.
Wideouts have risen in value as passing grows more and more paramount to team success. Securing a young, productive player on an inexpensive rookie contract can create tens of millions of dollars in surplus value for a franchise with Super Bowl aspirations. But high-upside pass catchers are plentiful at the draft. The declining value of running backs shows how a glut of talent can overload the market and leave teams better off with a shotgun blast of late-round selections rather than one top-tier asset early in the proceedings.
Are first-round picks still worth it? What’s the hit rate for a team willing to wait until Day 3? Can you expect anything from that seventh-round flier your franchise picked up in the waning days of an exhausting draft?
The last decade of data has created a road map to finding the best — and most valuable — wide receiver prospects. Let’s dive in:
Selecting a Day 1 wideout in a loaded draft is (typically) worth it
It’s not surprising, but highly touted prospects generally make better pros than the ones drafted after them. First-round draft picks between 2011 and 2020 were, on average, 51.5 percent more productive than players drafted in Rounds 2 and 3, and 279 percent more productive than the average fourth- or fifth-rounder, per Pro Football Reference’s Approximate Value metric.
The exception to the rule is 2016, when four wideouts went in the first round and were mostly forgettable. Corey Coleman (15th overall), Josh Doctson (22nd), and Laquon Treadwell (23rd) all failed to log five seasons with the clubs that drafted them. Will Fuller IV was the only Day 1 wideout to make a lasting impact, and he’s statistically only the fifth-best receiver in his class.
Otherwise, players like Julio Jones, DeAndre Hopkins, Amari Cooper, and Justin Jefferson were all properly rated first-round picks. It’s not especially mind-blowing, but if you need receiving help, it’s rarely worth it to wait (looking at you, Packers).
Who is this good for in 2021?
This spring has seen three wideouts separate themselves from the pack as first-round locks. LSU’s Ja’Marr Chase and Alabama’s DeVonta Smith and Jaylen Waddle will be the first three receivers off the board. Pencil each in for multiple years of above-average performance in the starting lineup.
Yes, you should pay the premium to trade up for an elite prospect
While values persist in a stacked draft, scouts are pretty accurate when it comes to identifying the top values in a rookie class. When it comes to stacked classes like 2021’s — ones in which at least two wideouts are drafted among the first 16 picks — players selected in the first half of Day 1 were roughly twice as productive than those first-round picks selected between picks 17 and 32. They spent, on average, 3.8 seasons as an entrenched starter in the NFL compared to 2.2 for their peers. They were 16 times more likely to earn a Pro Bowl invitation.
That latter number is a bit skewed by the awesome production of Julio Jones and A.J. Green, each a top-six pick in 2011. It will likely come down as the Class of 2020, led by Justin Jefferson, progresses. Even so, paying up for a receiver lauded as one of the three best in his class is likely a safe bet.
Who is this bad for in 2021?
Rashod Bateman, Kadarius Toney, Terrace Marshall Jr., Rondale Moore, and Elijah Moore. All have first-round potential — but it would be a significant upset to see any snatched up among the top 16 picks.
Lots of first-round picks means lots of clean up value in later rounds
Even if you aren’t getting a five-star future Pro Bowl WR in the top 10, there are still several ways to improve your roster at the NFL Draft.
Excluding 2020 due to a lack of data — we already know this class was good, but *how* good remains to be seen — there were four drafts in the past decade in which at least four wide receivers were selected in the first round. The success rates among those players varies. 2014 was an absolute banger that dropped Odell Beckham Jr., Mike Evans, and Brandin Cooks onto NFL rosters. On the other hand, 2015’s opening round gave the league Kevin White, Nelson Agholor, and Phillip Dorsett.
What was consistent in each case was a solid cache of valuable targets in the rounds that followed. Drafts with a heavy saturation of first-round wideouts usually saw players with more Average Value, Starting Seasons, and Pro Bowl appearances in Rounds 2-7 than those that had three receivers or fewer in Round 1.
The 11 players taken after ‘14’s top class have combined for 10 Pro Bowl appearances thanks to the presence of players like Allen Robinson, Davante Adams, and Jarvis Landry. 2015’s iffy Day 1 haul was followed by a strong group of fourth- and fifth-rounders that included Jamison Crowder and Stefon Diggs. Even 2020’s too-soon-to-tell class appears to have produced some steals including Bears wideout Darnell Mooney, Bills playmaker Gabriel Davis, and Browns late bloomer Donovan Peoples-Jones.
Who is this good for in 2021?
There are several productive college players who may be pushed to later rounds due to this year’s stacked class of receivers. Western Michigan’s D’Wayne Eskridge was a MACtion monster and could be the next Group of 5 star to emerge from the ether as a fully formed starter. Dyami Brown had more than 2,100 receiving yards and 20 touchdowns in his final two seasons at North Carolina but is still unlikely to crack Day 1. Amon-Ra St. Brown had 10 games with at least 94 receiving yards against Power 5 opponents and combines solid speed and size, but may languish until Saturday.
There are several more players who fit the bill. It’s much more of a crapshoot after we kick off the draft on Thursday night, but there will be multiple gems dug from the late-round mines of the 2021 draft.
Beware players whose college stats are padded by big games against bad teams
Stephen Hill was a 6’4 monster with 4.36 40 speed whose lack of production could be waved away by Georgia Tech’s ground-based offense if you wanted him badly enough. The Jets, staring at fellow Yellow Jacket Calvin Johnson’s elite play, certainly did. He rewarded their faith at No. 39 overall with 594 receiving yards in his NFL career while catching only 42 percent of his targets.
Justin Hunter was a five-star talent who looked the part of an NFL star at 6’4 and 235 pounds with a 4.4s 40, but he only had one 1,000-yard season with a struggling Tennessee program. He had eight 100+ yard games at UT, but half of them came against non-Power 5 programs. The Titans kept him in the Volunteer State with the 34th pick of 2013 … and he had 1,349 receiving yards over a six-year career.
Dorial Green-Beckham was another hyped recruit whose best work in college came mostly against scrubs en route to only 87 NCAA catches, but Tennessee drafted him anyway. He was even less productive than Hunter.
College numbers aren’t everything, but they are a useful supplement to potential when it comes to grading draft prospects.
Who is this bad for in 2021?
Most of the Day 1 and Day 2 guys are pretty sturdy — Bateman and Elijah Moore especially carved up top competition (Moore’s 2020 vs. solely SEC opponents: 86 catches, 1,196 yards, and eight touchdowns in EIGHT GAMES MY GOD). Michigan’s Nico Collins fits the profile, however. Todd McShay’s 13th-ranked wideout (remember, this is a deep, deep class) only has one NCAA 100-yard game on his resume to go with his 6’4 size and 4.42 40 speed. Wake Forest’s Sage Surrat had a limited stat sheet after sitting out 2020, but three of his seven most productive games were against decidedly unthreatening teams Tulane, Utah State, and Elon.
Exception alert! N’Keal Harry built a robust college resume with a litany of big games against almost exclusively top-flight competition. Eight of his nine 100+ yard games at Arizona State came against Power 5 competition. This convinced Bill Belichick to spend a rare first-round pick on a wideout, and Harry has rewarded that faith with … one game with 50+ receiving yards in two years as a pro.
You’re almost certainly not getting a worthwhile WR after Round 5
The fifth round of the NFL Draft has produced stars like Stefon Diggs, Marvin Jones, and Tyreek Hill. Rounds 6 and 7, on the other hand, decidedly have not.
Wideouts drafted after Round 5 since 2011 have two Pro Bowl selections between them; one for Darren Waller — who converted to tight end — and one for Dwayne Harris, who was selected as a special teams standout. Only two receivers drafted in the latter half of Day 3 have logged more than one season as a full-time WR starter in the NFL: Quincy Enunwa and Rishard Matthews.
This wasn’t always the case. 1,000-yard WRs like Pierre Garcon, Marques Colston, Julian Edelman, and Stevie Johnson all went in the seventh round through the final years of the 2000s. Those bargains no longer exist thanks in part to the advanced scouting that followed those draft steals. If your team selects a wideout late on Saturday of this year’s draft, you might be looking at a solid special teams pickup — but unless that player is a significant outlier, you’re not looking at a Pro Bowler. You’re probably not even looking at a future starter.
Who is this bad for in 2021?
Take your pick of overlooked starters who have failed to generate meaningful draft buzz this spring. Shi Smith was a solid performer who put together his best year in 2020 as a senior at South Carolina, but Pro Football Focus’s big board paints him as a late-round flier whose size may pigeonhole him as a slot-only option (McShay is more bullish, placing him in the rounds 3-5 range). Josh Imatorbhebhe was a revelation at Illinois in 2019, but a lackluster 2020 erased his buzz (and he’s also a prime example of the previous rule). Whop Philyor was a star in Indiana’s breakthrough season, but as good as he was for the Hoosiers, he’s probably not gonna have a fruitful NFL career unless he’s selected earlier than expected. Stanford space-eater Simi Fehoko looks like a red zone threat on Sundays, but his lack of separation skills may mean he does the bulk of his pro work on the practice field.
It’s a bummer, but it’s true. — CD
A few players who could be traded during the draft
Up until now, most of our attention on draft-day trades centered on which teams will trade up or down in the first round. But every year veteran players are also dealt during the three-day event. Last year, we saw the likes of Trent Williams, Matt Breida, and Marquise Goodwin land with new teams on draft weekend. The year before it was Josh Rosen and Dekoda Watson. Presumably it’ll happen again this year, and maybe for once it’ll involve someone who has never played for the 49ers.
So who’s next? Well, we can count out offensive linemen Orlando Brown Jr. and Ereck Flowers, who were already traded in the week-plus leading up to the draft. Here are a few candidates, and just for some semblance of order, I ranked them from most to least likely to swap teams this weekend.
Zach Ertz, TE
The Eagles have been expected to dump their longtime tight end, one way or the other, for months now. Recent reports indicate that a trade will finally come to fruition in the next couple of days, basically the last chance for the Eagles to get any compensation for Ertz. Despite coming off the worst season of his career (the 2020 Eagles, everyone!), the veteran is just a season removed from being a Pro Bowler and leading the team in catches, receiving yards, and TD receptions.
Stephon Gilmore, CB
Gilmore had a bit of a down season in 2020 due to injuries, but he’s still a top-tier cornerback when healthy. The 2019 NFL Defensive Player of the Year also has just one year remaining on his contract and will turn 31 in September. There’s a decent chance the Patriots will trade up in the draft to select a quarterback, and if they do make that un-Belichickian move, Gilmore could be an enticing part of that deal. The Patriots are already in good shape at cornerback and could then draft Gilmore’s replacement in what is a deep year at the position.
Teddy Bridgewater, QB (Update: Traded to the Broncos! For a sixth-round pick?)
The Panthers’ trade for Sam Darnold seemingly ended Bridgewater’s time as the starting quarterback in Carolina. Although the Panthers gave him permission to seek a trade, no one has been willing to take on Bridgewater’s salary (and $22.9 million cap hit in 2021) yet. That could change if a team — say the Broncos — misses out on one of the top quarterback prospects this week. Then the 28-year-old Bridgewater could be an attractive option to quickly give the QB room a boost.
Jimmy Garoppolo, QB
Jimmy G’s future could depend on who the 49ers draft with the No. 3 pick: a project or a quarterback who can start right away. No one seems to know for sure what Kyle Shanahan is going to do Thursday night, and Shanahan himself isn’t sure of anything:
That Nihilist Arby's moment aside, Shanahan’s more detailed response about Garoppolo suggests he’s not as ready to kick the handsome quarterback man to the curb as less reliable sources say. As has been the case all along, it hinges on what kind of return the 49ers could get for Garoppolo — and whether another team wants to be saddled with his salary right now.
Julio Jones, WR
Falcons GM Terry Fontenot, made headlines — and gave Falcons fans that queasy feeling in their stomach they’re only used to experiencing during the season — when he told reporters he’d listen to offers for Jones. Yes, Jones is Atlanta’s record holder in almost every receiving category. He’s also 32 and has a sizable cap hit while the team itself still needs to create room to sign their future 2021 class.
But just because Fontenot will take calls doesn’t mean he’ll trade Jones. It’d take a massive offer for the Falcons to even entertain the possibility, and it’d be a huuugely unpopular decision:
I think Falcons fans can rest easy. At least until the season starts up again. — SH
Someone Important Said Something Rational About the Draft. Listen to Him.
One of the worst long-running NFL draft traditions dropped this week—Bob McGinn’s annual anonymous scout bitch fest. It’s been happening as long as I can remember, because I have a very distinct memory of that being one of many places where unidentified team sources got to spout off not-so-vaguely racist things about Cam Newton.
It’s the NFL version of salacious celebrity gossip. But rather than random unidentified internet commenters claiming to be Hollywood types, this comes from people on teams’ payroll, mostly scouting staff but it likely includes the occasional personnel director and even a general manager or two.
It also happens to be one of the most problematic things happening in the NFL mediascape.
NFL reporters, more so than any other league, are a little too comfortable with anonymous sources. Sure, it’s fun when an “insider” allows themself to be a knowing dupe for putting out trade rumors in the spring, but when they’re helping push bogus narratives about incoming college players (or helping with public contract negotiations for teams in a system that gives a franchise enormous leverage over players), they’re using their platform to further kneecap players. Incoming draftees have little, if any power. They can’t respond forcefully to whatever criticism is leveled against them; if they do, it’s then portrayed as another ding against their draft stock.
The simple answer here would be for editors and reporters to make their sources go on the record if they’re going to trash 21-year-old kids who aren’t even in the league yet. That’s not going to happen. It’s a scoop-driven economy, and no outlet is going to put itself at risk of losing access to juicy nuggets, no matter how poisonous the oil those nuggets were cooked in.
Until then, we should do our best to ignore it. Hahaha. We should also expect elected officials to act in our best interest, but also LOL. All we can really do is ignore it, understand where it comes from, and find more rational sources, like Rams head coach Sean McVay who said something so rational about this year’s prospects that it’s going to escape attention on social media.
“You don’t punish a guy [for opting out during the pandemic]. This past year has certainly been, I think, one that is different in so many ways, but you don’t punish guys for that. You go back to the tape. You look at what they’ve previously done — and then there are some projections with guys that maybe have less tangible evidence on the tape and it all is a part of the evaluation process. But certainly nothing weighs more than when you’re evaluating them playing the game that we’re going to ask them to do.”
It’s good to know that there are at least some NFL decision makers out there who seem to get it. —RVB