The 1st round of the 2023 NFL Draft was as chaotic as expected
The 1st round of the 2023 NFL Draft was as chaotic as expected
The mock drafts were very wrong — and that's totally fine!
For a while, it felt like the 2023 NFL Draft would never arrive. The anticipation was off the charts, not just because no one really knew what was going to happen after the first pick, but also because the pre-draft process drained the life out of every NFL fan that I know.
While we waited to see what this year’s draft had in store for us, the Ravens delivered a huge (pleasantly so) shocker when they AT LONG LAST reached an extension with Lamar Jackson. Never doubt the Ravens on draft day!
After that, the draft fun began. Well, after that, the Cardinals and Eagles exchanged a couple of picks due to a tampering investigation that no one knew was happening. But everyone pretty much mindwiped that bit of news as soon as the boos rained down on Roger Goodell on the draft stage.
Beforehand, I was curious if this draft would truly end up being as unpredictable as expected, so I tracked 16 different mock drafts to check how many picks were correctly guessed1. The result: Not a whole lot! In fact, Daniel Jeremiah was the most accurate mock drafter of the bunch and he only nailed six picks (plus another in which he had the right player/team in the wrong spot).
My takeaways from this little experiment: 1) it’s challenging to put together a mock draft and 2) yeah, the first round of this year’s draft was wild. Six trades in the first round. Three QBs in the first four picks (and none after that). Tyree Wilson picking up Goodell. Players like Will Levis, Brian Branch, and Joey Porter Jr. falling out of the first round. Whatever the Eagles were doing (good). Whatever the Lions were doing (bad).
Below, I went into a little more detail about all 31 selections, including how many of those 16 mock drafts were right (or more often, wrong).
1. Carolina Panthers: Bryce Young, QB, Alabama
Correct mock drafts: 15/16
It’s only been a couple weeks since “Bryce Young to the Panthers” became the only pick in this draft that anyone was even remotely sure of, so it’s no surprise that this was a near-unanimous selection.
2. Houston Texans: C.J. Stroud, QB, Ohio State
Correct mock drafts: 3/16
Not too long ago, it was a no-brainer that C.J. Stroud would be a top-two pick. Then, suddenly, there were whispers that the Texans — who started Davis Mills at quarterback for two straight seasons — were willing to pass on a QB at No. 2, potentially letting one or two of their division rivals (Colts, Titans) land one of the best players in this draft. At the same time, Stroud was the victim of several unfair rumors that didn’t seem based in reality.
None of it made sense! Thankfully, Stroud’s stock did not drop, the Texans wisely drafted a quarterback, and we can remember not to pay these kinds of flimsy pre-draft reports any mind in the future, right? RIGHT?
3. TRADE, Houston Texans: Will Anderson Jr., Edge, Alabama
Correct mock drafts: 1/16 (take a bow, Daniel Jeremiah)
Partially correct mock drafts: 8/16 (five had the Cardinals trading down; three had Anderson going No. 3 to Arizona)
The first night of the NFL Draft wrapped up early for the Texans. And ho hum, they came away with a franchise quarterback and the top-rated defensive prospect this year. They also made the smart decision to take Stroud at No. 2 so that they’d have fewer teams competing with them to trade into the No. 3 spot.
Nick Caserio, I owe you an apology. I wasn't really familiar with your game.
4. Indianapolis Colts: Anthony Richardson, QB, Florida
Correct mock drafts: 4/16
As I accurately forecast in my not-at-all-real mock draft, the Colts had their choice between Will Levis and Anthony Richardson. I’m glad to see they took my advice over the Manning brothers’.
5. Seattle Seahawks: Devon Witherspoon, CB, Illinois
Correct mock drafts: 0/16
Our first kinda out-of-nowhere pick. Out of nowhere in the sense that none of the mock drafts had predicted this pairing. Devon Witherspoon at No. 5 is not a reach, though: Most mocks had him heading to the Lions at No. 6. Instead, the Seahawks are trying to reboot the Legion of Boom:
https://twitter.com/TrainIsland/status/1651750806054420481?s=20
6. TRADE, Arizona Cardinals, Paris Johnson Jr., OT, Ohio State
Correct mock drafts: 0/16
Partially correct mock drafts: 6/16 (three projected Johnson to the Cardinals at No. 3; three projected him to the Cardinals after a trade down)
In recent days, “Paris Johnson Jr. to Arizona” rumors began to pick up steam, thanks mostly to Kyler Murray’s endorsement. And according to Ian Rapoport, the Cardinals were set to draft the left tackle at No. 3, until the Texans dangled a future first-round pick in their face. But they would’ve missed out on Johnson Jr. at No. 12, so the Cards traded back up for the first-team All-American, 24 years after the same franchise drafted Paris Johnson Sr.
7. Las Vegas Raiders: Tyree Wilson, Edge, Texas Tech
Correct mock drafts: 2/16
For the most part, draftniks thought the Raiders would target a cornerback here, but it’s also hard to blame them for grabbing Tyree Wilson, an edge rusher with a high ceiling, while he was available.
8. Atlanta Falcons: Bijan Robinson, RB, Texas
Correct mock drafts: 7/16
Partially correct mock drafts: 2/16 (two guessed the Falcons would select him later, following a trade)
This was the most accurate pick of the night after Young going No. 1. You can debate the value of drafting a running back in the first round, let alone in the top 10, but Bijan Robinson is a dynamic back and should be a big-time playmaker in Atlanta’s offense.
He also loves dogs, so I’m sold on this pick:
https://twitter.com/ESPNNFL/status/1651726304675282946
9. TRADE, Philadelphia Eagles: Jalen Carter, DT, Georgia
Correct mock drafts: 0/16
Partially correct mock drafts: 2/16 (two thought Carter would be the Bears’ pick at No. 9)
The Eagles’ otherwise monstrous defense struggled a little against the run last year, and Jalen Carter is arguably the most talented defensive tackle in this draft. He wasn’t going to fall any lower than this, which means the Eagles had to make a move.
10. Chicago Bears: Darnell Wright, OT, Tennessee
Correct mock drafts: 0/16
Partially correct mock drafts: 1/16 (Charles Davis expected the Bears to take him at No. 9)
Offensive tackle was a hugely popular pick for the Bears: 10 of 16 mock drafts thought Chicago would address the position here. But it’s an upset that with Illinois native Peter Skoronski still on the board, Chicago opted for Tennessee right tackle Darnell Wright. Oh well, I’m just glad Justin Fields has a little more projection.
11. Tennessee Titans: Peter Skoronski, OL, Northwestern
Correct mock drafts: 0/16
Surprisingly, only one mock draft thought the Titans would draft an offensive tackle, even though they parted ways with Taylor Lewan and had one of the worst (if not the worst) OL units last season. That’s because a majority — 12 of the 16 I surveyed — believed they’d draft a quarterback, either at No. 11 or after a trade.
There’s still time for Tennessee to go after a quarterback in this draft class, but for now, it ended up with the highly rated Skoronski, who can play either guard or tackle.
12. Detroit Lions: Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, Alabama
Correct mock drafts: 0/16
Partially correct mock drafts: 1/16 (one had the Lions taking him … at No. 31)
Uh yeah, this was not on anyone’s bingo card. NO ONE, not even Jahmyr Gibbs himself, expected the running back to go this high. Still, a couple analysts mocked a running back (Robinson) to the Lions at No. 18, and Will Brinson projected Gibbs to the Lions, after a trade with the Chiefs, to the last pick in the first round.
The only reason this wasn’t the biggest head-scratcher of the night is because the Lions still had another pick left.
13. Green Bay Packers: Lukas Van Ness, Edge, Iowa
Correct mock drafts: 1/16
I mean, at this point, you simply have to appreciate the Packers’ commitment to the bit: They still haven’t drafted a wide receiver in the first round since 2002 (the same year Jaxon Smith-Njigba was born).
14. TRADE, Pittsburgh Steelers: Broderick Jones, OT, Georgia
Correct mock drafts: 0/16
Partially correct mock drafts: 7/16 (five mocked him at No. 14 to the Patriots; two mocked him to the Steelers at No. 17)
While some thought the Patriots would take offensive tackle Broderick Jones here, they instead did what Bill Belichick often does: traded down. As a result, one OL-needy team (Steelers) jumped another OL-needy team (Jets) for the top OT left on the board.
15. New York Jets: Will McDonald IV, Edge, Iowa State
Correct mock drafts: 0/16
The Jets finally completed the trade for Aaron Rodgers this week and that same trade cost them a chance to draft an offensive tackle to protect Aaron Rodgers. It’s like Alanis Morissette’s definition of ironic.
Only two mock drafts guessed that the Jets would take a defensive player and no one picked Will McDonald IV in the spot. In fact, only seven mock drafts even listed McDonald in the first round, none higher than No. 20. It sure seems like, without knowing what transpired in the Jets’ draft room, they could have tried to trade down and still nabbed McDonald.
But they didn’t! At least Rodgers is probably numb to this by now.
16. Washington Commanders: Emmanuel Forbes, CB, Mississippi State
Correct mock drafts: 4/16
Hey, a pick that a decent number of mock drafts got right! Even though cornerback was a good bet for the Commanders, it’s a little surprising that they took Emmanuel Forbes with the more highly ranked Christian Gonzalez on the board.
17. New England Patriots: Christian Gonzalez, CB, Oregon
Correct mock drafts: 0/16
Partially correct mock drafts: 1/16 (The Athletic staff called him to the Pats at No. 14)
The latest any mock draft had Gonzalez going was No. 16. Belichick got him at No. 17. You fools!
18. Detroit Lions: Jack Campbell, LB, Iowa
Correct mock drafts: 0/16
How off-the-mark was this selection? Only one mock draft even envisioned Jack Campbell being a first-round pick (Chris Trapasso put Campbell at No. 27 to the Bills). It really feels like the Lions crapped the bed on Day 1 of the draft, at the end of a week that was already lousy for them:
https://twitter.com/KevinCole___/status/1651772678703915010?s=20
19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Calijah Kancey, DT, Pitt
Correct mock drafts: 1/16
There wasn’t any real consensus on which player, or even which position, the Bucs would use their first-round pick on. I suppose we should’ve seen it coming that Todd Bowles would want a super-athletic defensive tackle, though.
20. Seattle Seahawks: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Ohio State
Correct mock drafts: 2/16
Although most mock drafters believed JSN would be the first wide receiver taken, not many believed he’d be available at No. 20. The Seahawks can stick him in the slot right away and let him rack up the yards. Overall, an excellent Round 1 for Seattle.
21. Los Angeles Chargers: Quentin Johnston, WR, TCU
Correct mock drafts: 0/16
It’s not shocking that the Chargers drafted a receiver, but no one was thinking that receiver would be Quentin Johnston. In retrospect, we should’ve known they’d opt for the tall guy:
https://twitter.com/arjunmenon100/status/1651829052997779456?s=20
22. Baltimore Ravens: Zay Flowers, WR, Boston College
Correct mock drafts: 1/16
The Ravens were either going to select a wide receiver or cornerback. In the end, they chose to give the newly extended Lamar Jackson his Flowers.
23. Minnesota Vikings: Jordan Addison, WR, USC
Correct mock drafts: 4/16
The historic run on receivers concludes with the Vikings giving Justin Jefferson a new teammate to pair up with: Jordan Addison. Wide receiver proved to be a difficult position to predict in this draft, but the Addison/Vikings pick was the most accurate.
24: TRADE, New York Giants: Deonte Banks, CB, Maryland
Correct mock drafts: 0/16
Partially correct mock drafts: 1/16 (Trevor Sikkema thought Banks would be chosen at No. 24 but by the Jags)
Zero mock drafts had Deonte Banks dropping past No. 24, so it makes sense why the Giants — who need the secondary help — would trade up, even one spot, to guarantee they’d come away with Banks.
25: TRADE, Buffalo Bills: Dalton Kincaid, TE, Utah
Correct mock drafts: 0/16
A crafty move by the Bills to jump in front of the Cowboys, who were expected to draft a tight end. Dalton Kincaid was the first (and only) tight end selected in the first round, though he’s more of a slot receiver — a position of need for Josh Allen and the Buffalo offense. Fantasy football owners, you’ll want to keep Kincaid in mind when it’s time for your draft.
26. Dallas Cowboys: Mazi Smith, DT, Michigan
Correct mock drafts: 0/16
I don’t know if the Cowboys decided to punt on a tight end at No. 26 after the Bills snatched up Kincaid. Or maybe the Cowboys wanted Mazi Smith all along, just like Micah Parsons did:
https://twitter.com/jonmachota/status/1651791257658699778?s=20
Even though only five mock drafts penciled Smith into the first round, he would’ve been gone when the Cowboys were next on the clock. Smith needs to be more consistent, but I like the idea of him swallowing up runners in Dan Quinn’s defense.
27. Jacksonville Jaguars: Anton Harrison, OT, Oklahoma
Correct mock drafts: 0/16
Partially correct mock drafts: 1/16 (Mel Kiper saw Harrison to the Jags coming but at No. 24)
The trendiest pick for Jacksonville was safety Brian Branch, who didn’t end up hearing his name called on Thursday night. Cam Robinson’s pending suspension likely altered the Jags’ plans, however. After trading down twice, they came away with the top-rated remaining offensive lineman, OU left tackle Anton Harrison (who can also play RT).
28. Cincinnati Bengals: Myles Murphy, Edge, Clemson
Correct mock drafts: 0/16
Strangely, Myles Murphy was supposed to be drafted near the end of the first round, but no one foresaw the Bengals as the team to get him. Maybe because it’s been more than two decades since they’ve taken a DL in the first round. Still, there’s a lot to like about the pick.
29. New Orleans Saints: Bryan Bresee, DT, Clemson
Correct mock drafts: 4/16
Another sorta accurate pick! I guess the Saints couldn’t pass on a guy whose last name is similar to “Brees.”
30: Philadelphia Eagles: Nolan Smith, Edge, Georgia
Correct mock drafts: 0/16
Partially correct mock drafts: 6/16 (those six had Smith going to the Eagles … at No. 10)
I’m not sure how the Eagles pulled this one off, but I applaud their efforts to reunite the 2021 Georgia defense.
31. Kansas City Chiefs: Felix Anudike-Uzomah, Edge, Kansas State
Correct mock drafts: 1/16
Felix Anudike-Uzomah was considered a fringe first-rounder, probable two-rounder. But he’s a Kansas City native who grew up a Chiefs fan who also fills a position of need after the team released Frank Clark. In all, it was a heartwarming way to close out the first night of the draft, held in where else but Kansas City.
Those mock drafts: Daniel Jeremiah (NFL Network), Charles Davis (NFL Network), Mel Kiper (ESPN), Todd McShay (ESPN), Dane Brugler (The Athletic), The Athletic Staff, Christian D’Andrea (FTW), Charles McDonald (Yahoo Sports), Will Brinson (CBS), Chris Trapasso (CBS), Cris Collinsworth (PFF), Trevor Sikkema (PFF), Danny Kelly (The Ringer), Sports Illustrated, Bleacher Report, and Pro Football Talk.