My sorta-but-not-really NFL mock draft, based on needs

Just so you know, this is not a traditional mock draft.

In general, I consider myself a mock draft appreciator. I will gladly read any that I come across, even on the day of the draft or the day after the draft, aka the first mock of next year.

This year is different, though. Maybe it’s all the conflicting reports and the uncertainty surrounding how the top 10 will unfold, but now, every mock draft I see leaves me feeling a bit unmoored. I’m starting to buy into theories that I would have scoffed at earlier. I have no idea what is happening! None of us do! 

In short, the draft can’t get here soon enough. While we wait (ugh) more than a week for that to happen, I’m going to put my own spin on the mock draft format. Last week, I assigned each NFL team the “task” of targeting one position this year, whether in the first round or later. Then I started thinking, “what if all 32 teams were forced to draft the position I chose for them with their first pick?”

So I put together a mock-ish draft rooted in that idea, with a few other guidelines:

1) I was locked into which position to address, but I tried to take into account what each GM might do, as well as how a prospect would fit into that team’s scheme, with each selection. I also used positional rankings from several different outlets to help inform my decisions: Dane Brugler at the Athletic, Mel Kiper at ESPN, PFF, NFL Media’s Daniel Jeremiah, The Ringer’s Danny Kelly, and last but not least, Christian at FTW.   

2) I did not allow trades because why complicate things further? (The actual draft will, of course, have plenty of those.)

3) If a franchise has two first-round picks, I used my own judgment for the second pick, based on what other needs it has and which players were still available. 

4) For the teams that don’t have a first-round pick, I played around with PFF’s mock draft simulator to figure out which prospects might be on the board when those teams have their first selection. 

Before we get started, I want to be clear that this is not a standard mock draft: Most of these picks won’t actually happen, so please don’t take them too seriously. 

1. Carolina Panthers: Bryce Young, QB, Alabama

The draft winds are blowing toward the Panthers taking Bryce Young, and I’m less inclined to believe it’s a red herring at this point. Young is a special, if short, quarterback and will be set up with a strong coaching staff in Carolina.

2.  Houston Texans: C.J. Stroud, QB, Ohio State 

I remain skeptical that the Texans will pass on a quarterback here if Young isn’t available. They’ll still be in rebuild mode no matter what, but it’d be easier to take the next step with a promising prospect than a more known, and uninspiring, commodity like Davis Mills. And, as they found out the hard way, there’s no guarantee that they’ll end up with the No. 1 pick next year and be able to draft, presumably, Caleb Williams.

C.J. Stroud is such a smooth thrower and the most accurate passer in this class. I don’t understand why, in the past couple of weeks, others have been tearing him down with blatant lies, but I’m tired of it!

3. Arizona Cardinals: Will Anderson Jr., Edge, Alabama

It’s highly probable that another team trades up to the No. 3 pick. Wherever the Cardinals do wind up in the draft order, they might not be in position to take this year’s best edge rusher, Will Anderson Jr. In this scenario, they are and they do. 

4. Indianapolis Colts: Anthony Richardson, QB, Florida

The Colts are guaranteed to get one of the top four quarterbacks if they stay at No. 4, but I still think their decision will come down to Will Levis vs. Anthony Richardson. At least one report suggests they prefer Levis of the two:

https://twitter.com/NFL_DovKleiman/status/1646619517525839872?s=20

Unless it’s a smokescreen, which is possible! Though I agree Richardson isn’t ready to start immediately, he has a much higher ceiling than Levis. And after watching Jalen Hurts flourish in Shane Steichen’s offense, I’d be curious to see what Indy’s new head coach could do with a raw but intriguing prospect like Richardson.

5. Seattle Seahawks: Tyree Wilson, Edge, Texas Tech

When I was researching position rankings, only the edge group had any kind of consensus: Will Anderson is No. 1 and Tyree Wilson is No. 2 (but perhaps has more potential). That makes this a slam dunk for the Seahawks. 

And while this should not and would not factor into the Seahawks’ decision at all, I’m amused by the idea of Russell Wilson inadvertently helping them land another Wilson.

6. Detroit Lions: Jalen Carter, DT, Georgia

If the Seahawks pass on Jalen Carter in favor of an edge rusher, then the Lions could be waiting to snatch him up. And if the Lions pass on him, then he won’t fall far — another team in the top 10 will select him.

In my mock, the Lions must draft a defensive tackle and Carter, despite his recent legal issues, is the best talent at his position.

7. Las Vegas Raiders: Devon Witherspoon, CB, Illinois

Depending on whose ratings you’re looking at, the highest-graded corner in this class is either Devon Witherspoon or Christian Gonzalez. But given Witherspoon’s ability to make any opposing WR a total nonfactor, I’m giving him the edge — and giving the Raiders their CB1. 

8. Atlanta Falcons: Lukas Van Ness, Edge, Iowa

After Will Anderson and Tyree Wilson, there’s some debate about who’s the next-best edge rusher in this draft. Some prefer Lukas Van Ness, while Georgia’s Nolan Smith and Clemson’s Miles Murphy have also earned consideration. 

Even though I like the thought of Smith staying home, I’m mocking Van Ness to the Falcons simply because he’s a better fit for their defense. 

9. Chicago Bears: Peter Skoronski, OT, Northwestern

Although Peter Skoronski started at left tackle throughout his college career (and was excellent there), most analysts project him as a guard at the next level due to his short arms. 

That kind of versatility is only a plus to me, and should be for the Bears as well. Skoronski can play any position along the OL and would give Justin Fields better protection than he’s had so far in his career, no matter where the Bears put him. 

10. Philadelphia Eagles: Brian Branch, S, Alabama

Well, we’ve got our first “reach” of this “not quite a mock draft” mock draft. Unless the Eagles find the money to trade for Budda Baker, they need safety help. In the actual draft, I wouldn’t recommend they select one this high, but based on this exercise, they have to address the position with this pick. 

Brian Branch, the only safety who is projected to be a first-rounder this year, can provide that same safety/slot flexibility that C.J. Gardner-Johnson brought to Philly’s defense last season. 

11. Tennessee Titans: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Ohio State

The Titans missed A.J. Brown badly last season and still need a big-play receiving threat. With Treylon Burks expected to step into the WR1 role in his second year, Jaxon Smith-Njigba would immediately become the Titans’ new slot receiver. That’s where JSN shined alongside first-rounders Chris Olave and Garrett Wilson in 2021, before a nagging hamstring injury cost him most of the 2022 season. 

12. Houston Texans: Nolan Smith, Edge, Georgia

I don’t know what the Texans’ plans are for their second first-round pick, but since I’m not tied to a specific position with this selection, I want to make sure that DeMeco Ryans has an edge rusher for his defense. Nolan Smith has both the leadership and explosiveness that I imagine Ryans is looking for:

https://twitter.com/BillyM_91/status/1647624223496568836?s=20

13. New York Jets: Paris Johnson Jr., OT, Ohio State

Aaron Rodgers, assuming he gets traded to the Jets soon, has had good luck with Ohio State centers (Corey Linsley, Josh Myers) before. So why not the Buckeyes’ All-American left tackle Paris Johnson Jr.? He’s arguably the best pure tackle in this draft class, and Dane Brugler thinks Johnson would fit best in a zone-based offense, which the Jets are expected to use in 2023.

14. New England Patriots: Christian Gonzalez, CB, Oregon

Trying to predict what Bill Belichick will do in the first round is a fool’s errand. Nevertheless, I can’t picture him passing on a defensive talent like Christian Gonzalez if he remains on the board at No. 14. Gonzalez is, as my former colleague Bill Connelly pointed out, a work in progress, but he has a ton of upside. I think he can blossom in a secondary with Jonathan Jones.

15. Green Bay Packers: Dalton Kincaid, TE, Utah 

The Packers don’t need to draft a tight end here, since I kept it intentionally vague and told them to take a “pass catcher.” Perhaps it’s unwise to draft a tight end in the first round, anyway. 

It’s a good thing Dalton Kincaid is more of a tight end/wide receiver hybrid, then. He’d be a productive target for Jordan Love, one who could serve as a Robert Tonyan replacement, and his selection would technically keep the Packers’ streak of not drafting a first-round receiver alive.

16. Washington Commanders: Deonte Banks, CB, Maryland

Baltimore native Deonte Banks could stay in the DMV area if the Commanders decide to go with a cornerback early. Joey Porter Jr. is still available in my mock, but Banks seems to fit Washington’s scheme better. Banks wouldn’t have to start right away either and could continue his development behind Kendall Fuller and Benjamin St-Juste. 

17. Pittsburgh Steelers: Darnell Wright, OT, Tennessee

Some draftniks like Broderick Jones, a left tackle who remains undrafted in this scenario, more than Darnell Wright. But the Steelers appear to be zeroing in on a right tackle in the first round, and Wright is someone who could step into the lineup immediately. He’s a strong run blocker too, which should boost Pittsburgh’s average ground game from last season. 

18. Detroit Lions: Will Levis, QB, Kentucky

Quarterback isn’t the biggest priority for the Lions, but it is a need considering the only ones currently on the roster are Jared Goff and Nate Sudfeld. And if one of the top four passers fell into their laps midway through the first round, then the Lions might not think twice about taking him.

Levis would be allowed to sit and learn behind Goff, and if he shows Detroit’s staff that he has franchise QB potential, then the Lions could get out of Goff’s contract pretty easily next year.

19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Broderick Jones, OT, Georgia

It’s as simple as this: the Bucs have a hole at left tackle after releasing longtime starter Donovan Smith, and Broderick Jones was a two-year starter for Georgia at the same position. In fairness, Tampa wouldn’t need to target a left tackle specifically because current right tackle Tristan Wirfs could slide over, but the addition of Jones would make things a lot cleaner.

20. Seattle Seahawks: Mazi Smith, DT, Michigan

After the Seahawks took care of edge rusher with their first pick, I have them sticking with the DL and shoring up the interior next. In reality, I’m not sure it’d make sense if Seattle’s first-round strategy would be to snub the best DT (Jalen Carter) in this class, only to take what could be the fourth-best DT, Mazi Smith, 15 picks later. 

But the way this has played out, I think Smith can fill the Seahawks’ nose tackle void a lot better than the other defensive tackles still on the board and improve the run defense (which needs it). In the actual draft, I believe the smart move would be for the Seahawks to trade out of this pick and try to land Smith in the second round, if he’s the DT they covet.

21. Los Angeles Chargers: Jordan Addison, WR, USC

I don’t know if Jordan Addison is the No. 2 WR in this class or not, but I enjoyed watching him in college and think he has the route-running skills and athleticism to contribute early in the right offense. The Chargers could be just that — and not only because Addison has ties to their WR coach.

22. Baltimore Ravens: Joey Porter Jr., CB, Penn State

What’s this? The Ravens drafting the son of a former Steelers player and coach? That’s right, it’s time for a new chapter in this heated rivalry. 

It’s highly possible that Joey Porter Jr. is already selected by the time the Ravens are due up in Round 1. In this case, he hasn’t been — and he’d be a good match for what Baltimore’s defense is looking for at corner. Plus, John Harbaugh would get his wish: Joey Porter Sr. having to cheer for the Ravens.

23. Minnesota Vikings: Emmanuel Forbes, CB, Mississippi State

Would the Vikings really go back to the super-skinny MSU cornerback well? After all, they just released Cameron Dantzler, three years after drafting him in the third round. 

However, I think they’d be willing to discount Forbes’ thin frame (166 pounds) because of everything else he does. Forbes is a ballhawk (14 career INTs, six career pick-sixes) with great instincts against the pass and as a tackler. 

24. Jacksonville Jaguars: Cam Smith, CB, South Carolina

The run on cornerbacks continues with the Jaguars, who have already shown interest in Cam Smith. Opinions are all over about where Smith ranks among this year’s CB crop — one PFF analyst puts him at No. 3, while Dane Brugler has him at No. 10 — and he’s most likely a second-round pick. Yet Smith’s high football IQ and ability to play anywhere are why he could sneak into the first round. If not, maybe the Jags can get him in the next round.

25. New York Giants: Tyrique Stevenson, CB, Miami

Yes, another cornerback (but the last one, I promise). Like Cam Smith, Tyrique Stevenson will probably be drafted on Day 2, though Peter Schrager singled him out as a player who could go higher than his projection. I’m giving Stevenson the nod over other names — Kelee Ringo, D.J. Turner — because of his size and how his play suits the Giants’ scheme.

26. Dallas Cowboys: Michael Mayer, TE, Notre Dame

If Dalton Kincaid is the top pass-catching tight end in this class, then Michael Mayer is the most complete tight end. That’s not to suggest that Mayer’s ball skills are average — he set multiple receiving records at Notre Dame.

In short, he’s a reliable target over the middle of the field (one that Mike McCarthy would loooove to incorporate into his offense) and he can block. Dak Prescott, meet your new Jason Witten.

27. Buffalo Bills: Drew Sanders, LB, Arkansas

The Bills lost Tremaine Edmunds in free agency and have done nothing to attempt to replace him. That means they either like their options already on the roster, or they’ll use the draft to fill Edmunds’ spot. 

And what do you know, Drew Sanders’ comparison on his NFL Draft profile is none other than Tremaine Edmunds.

28. Cincinnati Bengals: Antonio Johnson, S, Texas A&M

We have our second safety off the board and our second reach at the position. I’d be fairly surprised if the Bengals drafted Antonio Johnson here, but they’re obligated to take a safety, per my rules, and Johnson ranks No. 2 after Brian Branch. Like Vonn Bell, who signed with the Panthers in free agency, Johnson can line up at different spots and plays well against tight ends. 

So when the draft rolls around, maybe the Bengals want to wait and hope he’s still there when they pick again in the second round.

29. New Orleans Saints: Myles Murphy, Edge, Clemson

The Saints haven’t had the best luck with first-round defensive ends the past few years, but it’s possible Myles Murphy could change that. He’s a fierce pass rusher who never seems to slow down, though he could use a little refining. Still, he’s an awesome athlete who can produce in whatever role he’s asked to play. The Saints could use that kind of young talent alongside veteran Cam Jordan. 

30. Philadelphia Eagles: Calijah Kancey, DT, Pitt 

Calijah Kancey is not Aaron Donald — only Aaron Donald is Aaron Donald — but he is an undersized and explosive DT from Pitt who has potential to be a menace on the field. Kancey would address an area of need for the Eagles, and he’s also just really fun to watch:

https://twitter.com/antwanstaley/status/1646159450338742272?s=20

31. Kansas City Chiefs: Anton Harrison, OT, Oklahoma 

In the past few years, offensive linemen from Oklahoma have worked out pretty well for the Chiefs (see: Orlando Brown Jr, Creed Humphrey). So why not try it again with Anton Harrison? 

While Harrison spent most of his time at OU as a left tackle, he can play right tackle too. That would give Kansas City options about how to best protect Patrick Mahomes: The team signed Jawaan Taylor to replace Brown at left tackle, but Taylor was the Jaguars’ starting right tackle for the past four seasons. Taylor could switch back to RT or stay at LT, depending on how Harrison adapts to the NFL.

36. Los Angeles Rams: Will McDonald IV, Edge, Iowa State

The Rams currently lack any edge rushers who have proven they can consistently get to the quarterback. Will McDonald IV is a disruptor: He tied the Big 12 record for most career sacks (34) and had 10 forced fumbles at Iowa State.

51. Miami Dolphins: Cody Mauch, OT, North Dakota State

The only starting OL for the Dolphins who should have his spot solidified is left tackle Terron Armstead. Cody Mauch was NDSU’s starting LT for three seasons, but he has experience on the right side and could end up as a guard in the NFL. He’s a hard-nosed player who would probably lose another tooth willingly to protect Tua Tagovailoa.

67. Denver Broncos: Isaiah Foskey, Edge, Notre Dame

Isaiah Foskey totaled 22 sacks in his last two seasons at Notre Dame and set a school record with 26.5 career sacks. He also blocked four punts and could be a special teams contributor right away in Denver. Foskey still needs to develop more as a pass rusher, though DC Vance Joseph can help him with that.

74. Cleveland Browns: Gervon Dexter Sr., DT, Florida

Earlier, I had floated the idea of the Browns drafting Keeanu Benton but in my simulation, he’s no longer on the board. So instead, I gave them another big body who excels against the run: Gervon Dexter Sr. Even if Dexter has some technique issues because he hasn’t been playing football all that long, those can be ironed out with the right coaching. 

99. San Francisco 49ers: Tyler Steen, OT, Alabama

A good number of tackles have been drafted at this point, but the Niners still end up with a prospect who can grow into a starting role. Tyler Steen saw time as a defensive lineman for Vanderbilt in 2018, before moving to offensive line and then ending his collegiate career as Bryce Young’s left tackle. Although Steen isn’t a finished product, let’s see what he can do while learning behind Trent Williams.