Which team will get to find out how good Matthew Stafford is?
Hop on the quarterback carousel!
The Lions are going all in with their renaissance. Former head coach Matt Patricia is gone. So is general manager Bob Quinn. In the coming months Matthew Stafford, the longest-tenured player on the roster, will follow them out of Detroit.
Reports broke last week that the quarterback and the only franchise he’s ever known made a mutual decision to part ways. It’s a move that will give the Lions a clean slate in their quest to put the last 60 years of history behind them and Stafford the opportunity to prove he’s a NASCAR engine that will finally get the chance to power something other than Detroit’s eternal wood-paneled 1989 Dodge Caravan.
There should be several suitors when it comes to the former No. 1 overall pick. Stafford turns 33 in February, and although injuries have limited him the past two seasons, there’s still plenty of good football left in him. Over the past two seasons, he’s averaged 284 passing yards per game while posting a 45:15 touchdown-to-interception ratio in 23 full games and a 99.3 passer rating. In the past seven years, he’s led the league in game-winning drives three times … and he did all that while playing for the Lions, which provided him all the structural stability of a balsa wood house.
He’s also hitting the market at a tremendous time for a high-value quarterback with starting experience. Nearly half the league will either be looking for new starters behind center or working to address issues at QB in 2021 and beyond. That includes NFL blue bloods like the Patriots, Saints, Colts, and possibly the Steelers. The right trade could create a wonderful opportunity for a quarterback who has vacillated wildly from “overrated” to “underrated” while playing for a franchise that hasn’t won a playoff game since the first Bush presidency.
Where would be the best landing spot for a strong-armed veteran with plenty to prove? Fortunately, there are several options.
1. Indianapolis Colts
I brought Indianapolis up a few weeks ago when we were discussing Deshaun Watson’s future. With Philip Rivers opting for retirement and the Texans unlikely to strike a deal with a division rival, Stafford may be the best option for a ready-made playoff team.
The Colts can offer a tremendous upgrade up front, even after longtime tackle Anthony Castonzo decided to hang up his cleats. Rivers, the least-mobile quarterback this side of Alex Smith, was sacked only 19 times last season — the second-lowest mark of his 17-year career. Indianapolis’ 16.5 percent pressure allowed rate was second-best in the NFL last fall. The Lions, by comparison, ranked 17th.
Stafford would also get to throw to a developing young receiving corps — Zach Pascal is a solid WR3 type and rookie Michael Pittman showed flashes of stardom after recovering from an early-season injury. He’d also get the league’s top young tailback platoon. Jonathan Taylor is a throwback workhorse who finished his regular season debut with 741 rushing yards, 6.2 yards per carry, and seven touchdowns in his final six games. Marlon Mack will be 25 in March and ran for more than 1,000 yards in 2019. Nyheim Hines is a stellar receiver from the backfield and quite possibly the fastest player in the league.
Factor in a top 10 defense and a roster that won 11 games, and Indianapolis provides the best opportunity for Stafford to end a four-year playoff drought.
2. New England Patriots
New England’s place at No. 2 is contingent on the team using its $57+ million in salary cap space to upgrade its passing game weapons. Cam Newton’s shot at revival was choked out by a group of wideouts and tight ends that caught only 86 percent of his on-target passes. While Jakobi Meyers looks like an undrafted free agent find and Julian Edelman will be back, in some form at age 35, everyone else on the roster is a massive question mark.
While Bill Belichick is impressively terrible at drafting wideouts, he could take a crack at a strong crop of free agent wideouts to fill that void. He could reunite Stafford with Kenny Golladay or give him the chance to throw to Allen Robinson, who spent the last three years lambasting the Lions (33 catches, 491 yards, three touchdowns in six games). New England could also provide an insular offensive line that may lose Joe Thuney and David Andrews from the interior (though it’s likely that cap space will retain at least one of those elite veterans) and get tackle Marcus Cannon back after a COVID-19 opt-out year.
Stafford’s biggest flaw is a lack of postseason success, where he’s 0-3 all time. Teaming up with the head coach who holds the league’s record for most playoff wins and games played would be a tremendous opportunity to rewrite that history.
3. San Francisco 49ers
The Niners can decouple themselves from Jimmy Garoppolo while absorbing only $2.8 million in dead cap space if they decide to release or trade the quarterback who took them to Super Bowl 54. Garoppolo’s 2020 was blunted by injuries, and the team’s general level of play wasn’t too significantly affected by any dropoff from him to Nick Mullens or C.J. Beathard. The $24 million saved by parting ways would cover Stafford’s 2021 cap hit and the some (the Lions would be on the hook for $19 million of his $33m hit in a pre-June 1 deal).
San Francisco’s offensive line took a step back last season — their 29.4 pressure rate was sixth-worst in the NFL — but re-signing Trent Williams across from Mike McGlinchey would give the team two upper-level bookends. Stafford would also get to play with a young, rising wideout corps, an All-Pro tight end, and an intriguing (but injury prone) running back room. The 49ers also have a star-studded defense that ranked fifth in the league in yards allowed last year despite missing several starters, including Nick Bosa and Richard Sherman, due to injury for the majority of the season. Even if Stafford plays at his 2020 level, that would probably be enough to get San Francisco back to the playoffs.
4. Washington Football Team
The Alex Smith story was a heartwarming comeback, but while he went 4-1 as a starter and led the Football Team to an NFC East title, he was a low-impact passer with severely limited mobility and a glaring lack of big plays. His average completion traveled just 3.7 yards downfield, and the Washington offense somehow looked better with Taylor Heinicke behind center in a Wild Card Round loss to the Buccaneers.
Stafford could be a proper plug-and-play quarterback; a tier above the kind of game manager Washington’s defense can drag to a one-and-done postseason appearance. His 9.4 intended air yards per pass would be a godsend for underutilized deep threats like Steven Sims and Terry McLaurin, who could thrive in the presence of a real downfield passer.
Of course, the offensive line is a problem and the franchise itself is a disaster, and now an overmatched team will have to play all of the NFC’s reigning division champions in 2021, which isn’t ideal. But Ron Rivera is a respected head coach and WFT has more than $35 million to spend this offseason in hopes of fixing things. It’s not great, but it’s something.
5. Denver Broncos
General manager John Elway seems content to stick with Drew Lock despite two years of uneven play, but his love for big-armed, throwback quarterbacks could convince him to give the Lions a call. Denver is in the midst of a historic streak of futility, recording four straight losing seasons for the first time since 1972. The Broncos could opt for Lock, draft a third-tier prospect with the ninth pick of this year’s draft, or swing hard and bring a veteran to the Rockies.
Stafford would link up with an exciting, but unproven young receiving corps. Courtland Sutton looked destined to make the leap to stardom last fall before a torn ACL limited him to only three catches on the year. Jerry Jeudy and KJ Hamler were both explosive and inconsistent as rookies. Noah Fant made major strides in his second season, but still managed to top 70 receiving yards in only a single game (and it was in Week 1).
The problem is … well, pretty much everything else. The Broncos’ once-stout defense failed to crack the top 20 in either yards or points allowed in 2020. An inconsistent offensive line allowed more pressures than the Lions. And you’ve got to face the Chiefs (and, to a lesser extent, the Chargers and rookie of the year Justin Herbert) twice annually in your quest for a playoff bid. It’s not great, but Denver can bring a healthy offer Detroit’s way and throw a new challenge on Stafford’s plate. — CD
The QB carousel is just getting started
If you think the NFL is too obsessed with quarterbacks, then this offseason is not going to be for you:
We’ve already seen one stalwart retire, and Philip Rivers probably won’t be alone. Bonafide stars like Deshaun Watson and Matthew Stafford are hoping to get traded. Aaron Rodgers and Jared Goff are facing their own “can this marriage be saved?” situation, though I expect both to return to the only franchise they’ve ever played for — Rodgers because he’s Rodgers, Goff because of his contract. I don’t think Dak Prescott is going anywhere either now that the Cowboys have seen what total garbage they look like without him.
Despite the glut of headlines already, the drama hasn’t even ramped up yet, especially with a top-heavy quarterback class looming on the horizon. But when it does, these are the five quarterbacks I’m watching most closely to see where they land:
1. Deshaun Watson: According to one report, Watson has the Jets and Dolphins atop his destination wish list, in that order. As of now, we don’t know if the Texans are willing to trade their 25-year-old face of the franchise, but those are two teams that actually have the capital to pull off a trade for one of the best players in the NFL.
While ESPN sources say Watson wants out of Houston even if the team hires Eric Bieniemy, I’m still wondering if a new coach, particularly the one Watson had his eye on all along, could persuade him to change his mind. If not, one team is about to get a gigantic upgrade at quarterback.
2. Matthew Stafford: It’s refreshing to see at least one amicable breakup unfold this offseason. This is one of those splits that’s good for both sides, too. The Lions can start building toward the future, and Stafford gets to escape the fate that befell Calvin Johnson, that no matter how well he does on the field, it’s never enough. Bonus: he won’t have to play for the kneecap-hating, way-too-intense new coach:
Wherever he ends up, Stafford can help them win. Personally, I like the idea of the Colts acting as a refuge for veteran quarterbacks who toiled away on sometimes bad, sometimes unlucky teams. Rivers didn’t get a storybook ending to his career in Indianapolis, but at least he got a decent chance at it, which wouldn’t have happened if he had re-signed with the Chargers. A similar, perhaps better destiny could await Stafford next, then maybe Kirk Cousins in a couple years, then Derek Carr ...
3. Sam Darnold: If the Jets have any shot of landing Watson, they have to take it. But if not, will they stick with Darnold or trade him and use the No. 2 pick to draft a quarterback handpicked by the current GM and new coach?
Maybe the Jets want to see how their 2018 No. 3 pick performs now that he has a new staff to develop him. Or maybe everyone just wants a clean slate, and Darnold will get a chance to start over with a new team. Even though Darnold has just a 78.6 passer rating through his first three seasons, the Jets will have takers. After all, he is still on a rookie deal, he’s just 23 years old, and he’s finally free from Adam Gase’s reign of terror.
4. Cam Newton: Despite a promising start to his tenure in New England, Newton struggled once he returned to the lineup after a brief absence due to Covid. He finished the season with just an 8:10 TD:INT ratio (though he ran for 12 touchdowns), and his 82.9 passer rating ranked near the bottom of the league.
Newton did end the year on a high note, with a season-high three touchdown throws and a 127.4 passer rating (against the Jets but still!). He was also stuck on an offense with a severe lack of playmakers, and it’s fair to wonder what he could do with more talent around him.
Will he once again wait to sign until the summer for whoever needs a quarterback? Will he be willing to be a backup this time? Or will a team grab him early in free agency, with the belief that the old Newton is still in there? I don’t think he’ll ever be the same Newton who won the 2015 MVP award, dabbing on the entire NFL in the process, but I’m not ready to give up on him as a starting quarterback either.
5. Ryan Fitzpatrick: Mostly, I just want to see where Fitzmagic ends up so I know which young quarterback will get benched after, like, Week 3, then regain his job in Week 9, and then lose it again in Week 12. — SH
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