The Packers look unbeatable too
The Packers look unbeatable too
Plus, what the Divisional round losers need to do now, and learning to live with Jared Goff.
The Packers handled the Rams by doing the opposite of what LA expected
That the Packers beat the Rams 32-18 in the Divisional Round Saturday was not a surprise. The way they did it was.
Green Bay kept its Ferrari under the speed limit most of the evening, opting to test the Rams defense without taxing its big-armed quarterback with deep balls. The Packers played throwback football, fielding an offense that mostly eschewed MVP-caliber throws in favor of runs between the tackles. And while Aaron Donald’s inability to be his typical wrecking ball self helped, this playoff performance was a prime example of how dangerous the Packers are — and how useful head coach Matt LaFleur’s gameplans can be.
The Packers dialed back their passing attack to avoid clashing with the Rams’ power
Aaron Rodgers has built his career as a deep ball connoisseur; 13 of his 48 passing touchdowns this fall came on gains of 20+ yards. His connection with Marquez Valdes-Scantling pushed the budding deep threat to the top of the league in yards per catch (20.3).
This set up a tremendous postseason showdown between the 2020’s top quarterback and the league’s top-ranked passing defense. Instead of a heavyweight slugfest, LaFleur dialed up a rope-a-dope lineup of quick hits that brutalized Los Angeles with a hundred short jabs rather than wild haymakers.
Davante Adams had a marquee showdown with All-Pro Jalen Ramsey and didn’t disappoint. The matchup between the player I voted my Offensive Player of the Year and one of the game’s top cover corners saw the Packer wideout forgo deep routes in favor of making Ramsey swing at ghosts at the line of scrimmage to free up short passes with big yard-after-catch potential:
Adams finished his day with nine catches on 10 targets for 66 yards — a departure from the nearly 12 yards per catch he’d averaged in the regular season. He notched one touchdown that served as dueling examples of his team's ingenuity and Ramsey's stubborn unwillingness to trade off his high-profile assignment:
Ramsey came into Saturday's game allowing just a 68.6 passer rating when targeted. Adams' big night was good for a 127.5 rating while staring down one of the game’s most-hyped CBs. And he did the vast majority of it by creating space against press coverage at the line and turning small passes into big plays.
Ramsey wasn’t the only defender victimized. Green Bay’s running backs averaged six yards per touch, which added an extra layer of subterfuge when LaFleur plied the Rams with a steady diet of play-action passes later in the game. This helped tenderize a powerful defense and create opportunities later in the game. Rodgers’ short-range strikes were only part of that equation.
Green Bay ran when the Rams expected pass and passed when they expected run
The Rams brought one of the league’s top defenses to Wisconsin, led by a play-erasing secondary and a destructive front line. But a rib injury suffered by Aaron Donald was the equivalent of leaving a side door unlocked in an otherwise impenetrable fortress. While Los Angeles was expecting presumptive MVP Rodgers to default to his deep ball instincts, LaFleur opted for a run-heavy gameplan that focused his efforts near the line of scrimmage.
The Packers ran the ball on designed plays (i.e. not scrambles) roughly 41 percent of the time in the regular season. They called runs on 14 of their first 25 plays (56 percent), showcasing a game script designed to test Donald’s health and lure a dynamic secondary a little closer to the trenches.
Green Bay’s first three drives all ended in points en route to a 16-3 lead. Rodgers threw only one pass deeper than eight yards downfield in that span … and it was the result of a free play after catching the Rams with 12 men on the field (in true Rodgers fashion, he completed this pass to Equanimeous St. Brown for 27 yards). Donald couldn’t create chaos at the point of contact. His frustration was thinly veiled.
The Packers showed little interest in throwing deep and playing into LA’s strength, but their passing game presented enough of a threat that the Rams were extremely hesitant to stack the box and leave single coverage downfield. That’s how, facing third-and-2 deep in the red zone on what seemed like an obvious running play, defensive coordinator Brandon Staley’s defense looked like this:
There are four men on the line and only two more in the box against a six-man front, which would make sense against most shotgun formations but not one for a short-yardage third down from an offense that’s been killing it on the ground all afternoon. That’s practically an invitation to run it up the middle, especially given the Pack’s stellar interior line play. Jamaal Williams obliged and picked up five yards and a fresh set of downs in the process. Three plays later, Rodgers ran a busted play into the end zone, thoroughly embarrassing poor Leonard Floyd in the process:
Let’s fast forward to the fourth quarter. The Rams’ alligator blood had them hanging around. A late touchdown cut the Green Bay lead to 25-18. After the two sides exchanged punts, the Packers got the ball back with less than 10 minutes to play and one long, extended drive from a trip to the NFC title game.
So here comes the clock-killing running game that's been averaging more than six yards per carry, right? WRONG, SEAN MCVAY. Despite an inherent desire to burn time, LaFleur saw the chance to subvert more expectations and thrive in the space created by the Rams' now-loaded boxes to fill the void left by Donald.
The first was a third-and-3 pass to Valdes-Scantling, which was maybe not entirely unexpected. Then, with fewer than eight minutes to play, came a play-action chip to Adams, which gained four yards. This set up a likely running down at second-and-6, and when Allen Lazard, likely Green Bay's top WR blocker at 6'5 and 227 pounds, moved upfield after the snap, LA's defensive backs thought he was coming up to block for the handoff developing behind him.
He was not:
Lazard has never been a speed merchant or especially elusive when it comes to lateral movement — two factors that left him undrafted after a stellar career at Iowa State and then bouncing between practice squads before settling in with the Packers. But Lazard is also an incredibly smart wideout with an innate feel of how to bend coverage when given an opportunity.
The Rams' brief steps toward the line of scrimmage in what looked a clear running down was one hell of an opportunity.
Just like that, the feisty Rams were lowered into their grave. A subsequent turnover on downs, sparked by the overproducing pass rush that had hounded Goff throughout the night, provided the dirt. The Packers' win meant they'll host the NFC Championship Game for the first time in Rodgers' career, giving him a chance to wash the taste of last year's San Francisco frogstomping from his mouth.
Green Bay never trailed in its 2021 playoff debut, leading by nine-plus points for more than a third of the game. The Packers’ win expectancy never dipped below 80 percent in the final 40 minutes of regulation. But still, the Rams found ways to hang around … until LaFleur’s early investments paid off in a big way. Rodgers can still beat opponents in a shootout — but Saturday’s win proved he doesn’t have to as he creeps toward his fifth NFC Conference Championship appearance. — CD
Offseason to-dos for the Divisional Round losers
I have high hopes for the conference championship games next Sunday, but to be honest, most of the games this weekend were not very exciting. The Chiefs’ five-point win over the Browns was the closest margin, and that only really became competitive when Patrick Mahomes was knocked out. The Bucs and Saints were at least tied going into the fourth quarter, and then Drew Brees deteriorated like he chose the wrong grail:
It was a disappointing round for fans of the NFL in general, but especially for those who support one of the losing teams. But the good news is that sometimes those teams are the same ones that return even better the next year, as long as they shore up certain areas of weaknesses. Based on what happened in the Divisional Round, here’s one thing each of the four losing teams needs to address this offseason.
Rams: a new defensive coordinator
The Rams finished the regular season ranked No. 1 in scoring defense and yards allowed. They also ranked atop Football Outsiders’ weighted DVOA ratings, which puts more value on performance in recent games.
Superstars like Aaron Donald and Jalen Ramsey were a huge part of that equation, but Brandon Staley still worked wonders in his first year as LA’s defensive coordinator. And it didn’t take long for the other LA team to notice and snap him up; Staley is now the Chargers’ new head coach.
That leaves a big hole for the Rams to fill this offseason: a DC who can not only pick up where Staley left off, but also improve on it so the defense is ready when it has to face the best of the best.
Aaron Rodgers made the Rams look silly more than a few times on Saturday. While there’s no shame in that — Rodgers does that to almost every defense, and Donald was not at full strength — LA’s defense was a disappointment in Green Bay. The Rams weren’t in sync and had issues communicating on defense, and Staley’s lack of adjustments was noticeable. The defense gave up a couple of 50+ yard plays in key moments, including the touchdown that put the game away — something Rodgers knew immediately:
The Packers gained 484 yards, nearly 100 yards more than the Rams surrendered in any other matchup this season. It was unfortunate timing for their worst statistical game, but overall, they’re on the right track if they can find a suitable replacement for Staley.
Ravens: a better passing attack
The Ravens’ biggest strength is their ground attack and it should continue to be so going forward, but once again, their lack of a passing game caught up to them in the postseason. The NFL’s worst-ranked passing offense struggled in Buffalo when it mattered most. The Ravens went 0-for 2 on fourth down and 0-for-3 in the red zone (including a pick-six), and they converted just two third downs on passing plays.
Wide receiver Hollywood Brown put it best, via ESPN:
"Whenever you're the No. 1 rushing [offense] and the 30-something passing [team], that's not right … That's not balanced. We got to find a way to balance our game. Even with our great rushing attack, we got to be able to throw the ball and be able to move the ball through the air."
Jackson can make those throws, but he didn’t look entirely comfortable when he dropped back on Saturday night. This offseason, the Ravens can take steps to amend that by adding more complicated schemes to the playbook, bringing on a passing game coordinator, and giving Jackson a true No. 1 receiver, either through the draft or free agency.
Browns: more secondary help
The Browns’ magical run ended Sunday afternoon, and to add insult to injury, it came at the hands of backup quarterback/LinkedIn aficionado Chad Henne:
It wasn’t just that fourth-down clincher, or Henne’s 13-yard scramble on the play before, that did in the Browns. On the same drive, Henne found Tyreek Hill for a 23-yard gain and Travis Kelce for a 24-yard gain to help extend the drive and ensure the Browns would not get the ball back. The Chiefs receivers finished with 321 yards, led by Hill (110) and Kelce (109), against the 25th-ranked defense in pass DVOA.
Cleveland’s secondary has a couple of reinforcements already on the roster: Cornerback Greedy Williams and safety Grant Delpit missed the season due to injury and will be back next year. However, Denzel Ward, the secondary’s only real foundational piece, needs some more help — especially the speedier kind who can try to keep players like Hill in check.
Saints: a starting quarterback
Drew Brees will retire, according to reports. Drew Brees should retire, according to our eyes that saw him toss three interceptions and average just 3.9 yards per throw against the Bucs.
So what will the Saints decide to do about their quarterback position? Earlier this season when Brees was injured, they started gadget player Taysom Hill, who was better than expected at quarterback but not the kind of threat who can deliver New Orleans a fifth straight NFC South title. They could re-sign Jameis Winston, who threw the best ball of the night for the Saints:
It’s possible Brees hinted that this is what the Saints are planning to do:
With Hill’s limitations, the Saints’ salary cap situation, and a talented supporting cast, Winston seems like the best option. Though that’s not without risk. Winston, after all, is the only quarterback in NFL history with a 30-touchdown, 30-interception season. But one thing he hasn’t done? Thrown three picks in a playoff game! — SH
Sorry, the Rams are stuck with Jared Goff
The Rams’ Saturday playoff exit at the hands of the Packers elicited some loose talk about quarterback Jared Goff’s future with the team. The source was none other than head coach Sean McVay who gave his QB the less-than-favorable endorsement of being the team’s “quarterback right now” after the game. He followed that up a day later with another rousing endorsement. Responding to a question about Goff’s place on the roster, he said:
“[...] we’re in evaluation mode. All those things are things that we’re moving forward, we’re looking forward. I can’t answer any of those questions until, like I said, I take a step back and evaluate everything that is in the best interest of the Rams.”
In case you’re not fluent in coachspeak, allow me to translate: McVay knows that Goff is a knockoff version of Kirk Cousins. He also knows that there is absolutely nothing he can do about it.
The Rams front office made a huge mistake (not the first time!) in September 2019 when they gave Goff a four-year, $134 million contract extension. Post-Super Bowl euphoria, even after a lifeless showing like the Rams put up, is very real. It was an unforced error. Goff had two more cost-controlled years on his original rookie deal after picking up his fifth year option that spring. The time for an extension would have been AFTER the 2019 season when he went full game manager, throwing a league high 626 passing attempts for just 22 touchdowns, 16 picks, and 7.4 yards per attempt, a full yard less than his Y/A the year before.
It got worse this season. Goff’s passes got shorter, and the Rams didn’t even try to throw down the field very much with their $134 million quarterback.
With the team turning the page to 2021, they’re looking at a $22 million deficit in the salary cap. The biggest cap hit is Goff at $34.6 million, 19 percent of the team’s total projected cap spending this year. It’s impossible to cut him, doing so would add $30 to $14 million in cap charges, depending on whether or not they did it with a post-June 1 designation. They could trade him, incurring some dead money but save cap space, but there’s no way another team is taking on that kind of contract for an average at best signal caller.
Beyond that, how exactly would the Rams replace Goff? They don’t even have a first-round pick this year (they traded it for Jalen Ramsey.)
Facing a similar, though less daunting, situation last year, the Rams structured Goff’s contract to save $7 million in cap space. They might have to do that again, but such a move just kicks the can further down the road, making it harder for the team to extract itself from an unproductive relationship.
The good news is that the Rams are only stuck with Goff for one more season. His contract still has a hefty cap hit in 2022, but the team will get more flexibility to cut him without being further sunk in cap hell. They would have eat some dead money, but the Rams have shown a willingness to do that in the past, most notably with Todd Gurley. It’s not the best move for overall cap management, but it would at least allow the team to move on from a quarterback who’s taking them nowhere.
But in the meantime, enjoy another year of four-yard quick outs from under center and more dashed playoff hopes. —RVB