What we know (and don’t) about the NFL season so far
Is Tom Brady cooked? Is Gardner Minshew for real? Can the Aaron Rodgers revenge tour continue?
Never overreact to Week 1 performances. That’s advice we should follow every season, especially in [insert a phrase we’ve used every day for the past six months] a year that’s anything but normal.
Teams are still trying to jell and figure out what works and what doesn’t. A one-game sample size is much too small to make any sweeping judgments. There’s too much parity in the NFL, etc etc.
That said, there really wasn’t much to overreact to this time around. Week 1 produced a distinct lack of surprises. The Chiefs, Ravens, and Seahawks looked like they hardly broke a sweat as they cruised to easy wins. The Cowboys and Broncos lost in part due to questionable coaching decisions down the stretch. The Bengals and Lions found new and creative ways to figuratively kick their fans in the crotch. Aaron Rodgers played like a man fueled by nothing but pure spite, Aaron Donald played with the strength of an entire defense, and Daniel Jones played like a Zoomer version of Jameis Winston while looking like the gritty reboot of Jim Carrey.
Even the upsets weren’t that shocking. The Jaguars beating the Colts at home? That’s something that has happened every year since 2015. Washington topping the Eagles? Ahem, some of us called it. The Cardinals taking down the 49ers? They came sooo close to doing it twice last season — it was only a matter of time.
But there’s still a lot of season left, and the surprises will eventually come. As we head into Week 2, we’re going to try to separate the ephemeral trends from what we think (or hope) is here to stay. — SH
We want to believe!
The Washington Football Team staying the Washington Football Team
I’m sure some high-dollar marketing effort will ruin it, but Washington Football Team is really the perfect name for it. The NFL is a big, giant corporate sports league monopolizing the branding for the entire sport of football at all levels. Why add another generic animal to the mix when it could be just The Football Team? This also makes it easier for the next owner to put their stamp on it, when the league wises up and figures out a way to erase Dan Snyder from the sport. And finally, exhibit C: Small sample size, but they are undefeated as the WFT, why tempt fate? — RVB
Russell Wilson finally winning NFL MVP honors
Wilson has been one of the steadiest quarterbacks in the league over the past nine seasons. As the Seahawks’ running game, receiving corps, and offensive line have had their ups and downs, Wilson has been there to steer the ship out of treacherous waters.
Throughout his career, he’s led the league, at various times, in passer rating, passing touchdowns, game-winning drives, and even once accounted for an NFL-record 86 percent of his team’s offense. Yet Wilson has never won an MVP award (not even the Super Bowl MVP when the Seahawks beat the Broncos). In recent years, he’s always been in the conversation, but otherworldly seasons from the likes of Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson have given Wilson perennial bridesmaid status.
That could finally change this year. Not only was Wilson near perfect in Week 1 against the Falcons — 31 of 35 for 322, four touchdowns, no turnovers — but the Seattle offense looked darn-right modern. The Seahawks passed on more than half of their first downs and didn’t punt on fourth-and-5 from their opponent’s 38-yard line. Instead, they went for it and Wilson connected with DK Metcalf for a touchdown that broke the game wide open.
If you believe the rumors, Wilson was the driving force behind the Seahawks’ offensive transformation. He almost deserves the MVP award for that alone. — SH
Cam Newton, Patriots franchise quarterback
There were two major concerns attached to Newton’s New England debut. Would he be healthy enough to look like the player who was one of the NFC’s top quarterbacks? Would the Patriots be able to mold their offense — long built on the game’s least mobile passer — to maximize his ground-based talent?
On Sunday, the answers were two emphatic yesses.
Newton ran for more yards in a single game (75) than Brady had in all but five of his 20 seasons as a New England Patriot in a 21-11 win over the Dolphins. He showcased not only a healthy body, but a new offensive philosophy from Bill Belichick and Josh McDaniels. The Pats ran the ball twice as many times as they passed, giving their QB the bulk of the team’s 42 carries on opening day. Newton came through when asked to throw as well, completing 15 of 19 passes for an efficient, if unexciting, 155 yards.
He may have to keep running the ball out of sheer necessity. New England’s depleted receiving corps struggled to separate from the Dolphins’ high-salaried secondary in Week 1. The only wideouts to earn targets were Julian Edelman and 2019 first-round pick N’Keal Harry. Harry finished his day with a career-high five catches … for all of 39 yards. Designed runs, like the two he carried into the end zone, were an excellent way to cover that lack of receiving talent, but that strategy has its limits.
What happens if the Patriots fall behind in the second half? Newton will have to dial up some big throws to keep his team competitive without relying on clock-draining carries. He didn’t show that off Sunday — he averaged a piddling 5.4 air yards per throw in Week 1 — but has been that guy in the past. He threw for 10+ air yards per pass in 2015-16 and more than 8+ in 2017 and 2019. New England needs to give him viable options to bring back his live arm (hellllllo, newly disgruntled Bear Allen Robinson), but at only 31 years old and healthy, there’s no reason freewheelin’, downfield-dealin’ Cam Newton can’t make a difference in red, white, and blue. — CD
Not so fast, friends...
The Cardinals’ playoff hopes
You might want to hold off on putting a deposit on any playoff tickets for the Arizona Cardinals (lol, as if the pandemic will be resolved in time for the playoffs). But there is nothing fluky about quarterback Kyler Murray. Already one of the most exciting players in the league, he’s going to win MVP awards very soon. And I really don’t think we got a full taste of what he’s capable of last Sunday. According to Pro Football Focus, his average depth of target was just 5.6 yards. Given the connection he had with Nuk Hopkins, it’s only a matter of time until they unleash the downfield passing game. Oh, and he can always run the ball too. I really like watching a team that can pleasantly surprise me on any given snap. — RVB
Aaron Rodgers, YOUR pissed-off 2020 MVP
There’s no other way to describe it. Rodgers destroyed the Vikings by being the man who made the superhuman look common from 2011-2016. He lit up an under-experienced group of Minnesota cornerbacks en route to 364 passing yards and four touchdowns — connecting with each of his top three wideouts along the way (Davante Adams x2, Allen Lazard, and Marquez Valdes-Scantling). It was a startling rebuke of the narrative his own franchise foisted upon him after trading up to draft Utah State quarterback Jordan Love in this year’s draft.
It was a nostalgic Rodgers throwback filled with nostalgic Rodgers throws:
The question is whether it’s sustainable. Rodgers has gone supernova only to be snuffed back into a hole before. Last year, he torched the Raiders and Matt Moore-led Chiefs for more than 730 passing yards and eight touchdowns in a two-week span. He threw only 10 total touchdowns and 209 passing yards per game in the eight weeks that followed. The Packers won the NFC North but failed to stand as a legitimate contender to the 49ers conference throne.
There’s reason to believe a similar outcome could follow him into 2020; Rodgers’ receiving corps from the back half of 2019 hasn’t changed much. Adams is a beast and Lazard continues to grow as a big, strong-handed target, but there’s little reliable depth behind them. Valdes-Scantling was a bonafide deep threat in Week 1 (four catches, 96 yards), but also dropped two sure-fire catches that would have been big gainers. He remains outside the circle of trust. The team’s two young tight ends, Josiah Deguara and Jace Sternberger, combined for only three targets in a game where the Packers threw the ball 44 times.
Green Bay won’t face secondaries as inexperienced as the Vikings’ combination of Holton Hill, Cameron Dantzler, and Mike Hughes, who combined to give up 20 catches and three touchdowns on 24 targets in Week 1. The combination of tough secondaries and limited targets will wear on Rodgers in 2020, even if it wasn’t remotely an issue in Minnesota Sunday. — CD
Gardner Minshew, franchise QB?
NFL players don’t tank. Minshew made that perfectly clear when he ripped off one of the most efficient single-game quarterback performances ever: The mustachioed meme completed 19 of 20 passes for 173 yards, three touchdowns, and no picks against the Colts. His 95 percent completion rate led the NFL, his 11.7 adjusted yards per throw was second, and his 142.3 passer rating trailed only Lamar Jackson and Russell Wilson.
Were we too quick to write off Minshew, and the Jaguars overall, as we all penciled in “No. 1. Trevor Lawrence, QB, Jacksonville” in our way-too-early mock drafts?
Eh, let’s not go overboard. Credit where credit is due, though. Minshew balled out in Week 1, and he showed at times last season (especially late games) that he was capable of putting together pretty good outings. Eventually, the magic wore off, Minshew was replaced by Nick Foles, got his job back again, and we mostly ignored him.
A couple of things worth remembering:
-Minshew’s best game as a rookie also came in Week 1. He entered the game after Foles got hurt and completed 88 percent of his passes for two touchdowns and a pick in a loss to the Chiefs. His 122.5 passer rating and 10.8 adjusted yards per throw in that game were season highs.
-Arguably Minshew’s second-best game as a rookie came in Week 17 against … the Colts. He completed a nice percent of his passes (69) for 295 yards and three touchdowns.
-You know who’s had a more efficient single-game performance than Minshew? Last December, Drew Brees did it, at 40 years old, against … the Colts again! His stat line: 29 of 30 (96.7 percent), 307 yards, four touchdowns, and a 148.9 passer rating.
Based on the defenses the Jaguars face in the next month or so (Bengals, Texans, Lions), Minshew might be able to keep some of this momentum going. But until I see more consistency and actual evidence that this guy is more of a franchise QB than Trevor Lawrence will be, he’ll just remind me of all the September Heisman winners. Hey, that’s great what you did in the first month of the season — but it’s what you do after that that makes a career. — SH
Are Drew Brees and Tom Brady washed up?
Probably not. Brady and the Bucs offense faced a tall order living up to all that preseason hype. More than anything, they just looked out of sync and out of answers against a very good Saints defense. Of the two, I’d be more concerned with Brees. His meager 5.3 yards per attempt will improve. Still, it was curious to see the team going with Taysom Hill on those third downs. It also didn’t help that Michael Thomas was hurting. Brady and Brees will be fine, but they’re starting to look like two dudes in their forties. — RVB
Thursday Night Football picks
Get ready for some political ads, because two Ohio football teams (and not even the good one) are taking center stage on Thursday Night Football this week. Hey, at least it will probably be better than their 2014 TNF matchup, when Andy Dalton finished with a passer rating of 2.0. Yes, as in the single digit 2.
This is a tough game to predict. The Browns have the more talented roster, but they also looked in total disarray (their natural state) in a blowout loss to the Ravens. Meanwhile, the Bengals should have won in Week 1 until their inherent Bengals-ness took over. Neither team can be trusted.
Earlier in the week, the Browns released kicker Austin Seibert and brought up Cody “double doink” Parkey from the practice squad. The Bengals claimed Seibert, though they still say they’re sticking with Randy Bullock, despite his cramped calf costing them overtime against the Chargers. So yeah, expect some kicker shenanigans at the end of this game.
This week’s guest picker is another SB Nation alum who’s gone on to do great things (stop us if you’ve heard that before). Richard Johnson was both a key piece of SBN’s college football team and a founding member of Banner Society. He’s now a founding member of Moon Crew and helped write a stellar college football sci-fi western called The Sinful Seven (available for only $14.99!). He also drops knowledge for Yahoo Sports (Canada, the most powerful of the Yahoo Sports) and is here to bring you against the spread picks with colleague Alex Kirshner as well. The man gets work.
Here’s how this week’s TNF picks shook out. We were split down the middle as to which Ohio team would make us saddest this week.
