Absolutely Can't Miss Picks for Every Week 1 Game
We already know who's going to win this week, so we're sharing that with you. Plus, looking back on last night's season opener/super spreader event in Kansas City.
Hey, fellow football fans. Are you excited to talk about the real-life NFL game we watched last night and the 15 others that will follow Sunday and Monday?
Us too! But first, a quick note:
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The Chiefs easily handled the Texans 34-20 to ring in the 2020 NFL season, a day that seemed like it would never come. Once the game started, it didn’t feel weird at all. More like the familiar comfort of your favorite hoodie on the first 60-degree day of the fall. But this is 2020, so of course not everything was normal.
Chiefs vs. Texans, in five words or fewer: CEH debuts, Chiefs fans boo
OK, OK. We have a little more to say about the game than that.
What we’re talking about (on the football field): Clyde Edwards-Helaire
Anyone who followed college football last year had the same reaction when the Chiefs used their first-round pick on running back Edwards-Helaire: “Are you kidding me?”
The Kansas City offense was already unfair even with an average running game. Then the Chiefs drafted an explosive weapon who ran for 1,414 yards on 6.6 yards per carry and had 453 yards receiving on top of that in his final season at LSU.
CEH did not disappoint in his NFL debut, either. He ran the ball 25 times for 138 yards and a 27-yard touchdown, breaking about a bajillion tackles along the way. That let the Chiefs — whose leading rusher in 2019, Damien Williams, ran for 498 yards — to put together long, clock-killing drives. Heck, Patrick Mahomes averaged a Daniel Jones-esque 6.6 yards per throw.
Mahomes still did his part (three touchdowns, 123.3 passer rating), but CEH was the MVP of the game.
What we’re talking about (off the football field): Chiefs fans boo a show of unity
The Texans chose to remain in the locker room during the playing of the national anthem (the Dolphins, and likely other teams, will do the same). When they came out onto the field, they were booed, which is how the home crowd normally greets the opposition.
But then some of those fans also booed when the Chiefs and Texans linked arms while non-incendiary phrases like "We support equality,” “We must end racism,” and “We must end police brutality” were shown on the Jumbotron. (The New York Times talked to some of the fans booing, and it’s as ugly as you’d expect.)
The Chiefs are one of two NFL teams that decided to allow fans to attend a game in Week 1. Even at 22 percent capacity, that’s 17,000 fans that entered Arrowhead Stadium in an area of the country that has been dealing with an increasing number of coronavirus cases. From what we could tell on TV, there were fans who were not great about social distancing OR wearing their masks.
There is probably a significant overlap between the people who would attend an NFL game during a pandemic, be lax about Covid prevention measures, do the Tomahawk chop, and boo players making a gesture for equality. But yikes, I don’t know that we needed another brutal reminder of how broken our country is right now.
Here’s what else is on our minds:
David Johnson back? The 2016 All-Pro looked more like his old self in his first game with the Texans. The former Arizona Cardinal ran for 77 yards and a touchdown on 7 yards per carry and added three more receptions. If he can stay healthy, Johnson can make a lot of people eat their words about Bill O’Brien trading for him.
Don’t count on DeAndre Hopkins being one of them, though:
Deshaun Watson needs a better OL, lather rinse repeat
Watson under constant pressure?
Football really is back.
Best image of the night:
Andy Reid’s foggy face shield:
Anyone who has ever worn glasses can relate.
Picks
Each week, the three of us will be making predictions for every game with the assistance of a guest picker. Geoff Schwartz, former NFL offensive lineman and host of the “Geoff Schwartz Is Smarter Than You” podcast, helped us out in Week 1.
After the Chiefs’ season-opening win, we’re all 1-0 headed into the weekend. Here are our picks for the rest of the games:
The “I can’t help myself” pick: Vikings over Packers
I should know better than to take the Vikings against a team with a pulse (Saints excluded). In the last two regular seasons, they’ve gone 2-10 against opponents that went on to make the playoffs.
Two other factors worry me: Aaron Rodgers against an extremely young group of cornerbacks and Danielle Hunter’s injury.
And yet, I’m still going with the Vikings. Maybe it’s because I’m still annoyed that a borderline unwatchable Packers team won 13 games last year (they will not replicate that feat this year, not when their biggest offseason acquisition was a rookie quarterback who has to sit for at least two years).
Or maybe I like the Minnesota offense, which found its groove last season. Even with Stefon Diggs and offensive coordinator Kevin Stefanski gone, the unit stayed mostly intact — new OC Gary Kubiak was an offensive advisor last year, and rookie receiver Justin Jefferson has the chops to turn into their next star receiver.
Or maybe Kirk Cousins, in full Ivan Drago mode this year, will be able to scare away defenders by threatening to cough on them. — SH
The “I shouldn’t be this confident in Mitchell goddamn Trubisky” pick: Bears over Lions
With a full crowd in Detroit I might have joined the crowd and backed the Lions. Instead, I’m hopping back aboard the Mitch train and predicting a 1-0 Bears start en route to a wild card bid.
Why? Because I think Trubisky is better than he’s given credit for. While he’s not much of a pocket passer, his disastrous 2019 can be at least partially attributed to the injuries that left him playing hurt all year. He played through a torn labrum in his non-throwing shoulder that overtaxed his good arm and affected his throwing strength as the season wore on. He also suffered a hip pointer that sapped the mobility that vitally bolstered his game in Chicago’s 12-win 2018 campaign.
He’s got a clean bill of health for 2020 and a tremendous amount to prove with free agency looming next offseason. Fortunately for him, he’s going up against a non-Patriots Matt Patricia defense. In his two years at the helm, the Lions have ranked 24th and 28th in passing defense, per FootballOutsiders’ DVOA metric. Factor in the team’s 25 or so newly added tight ends (Jimmy Graham! Cole Kmet! Demetrius Harris!) and you’ve got a case for 2020 Mitch looking more like 2018 Mitch — a useful caretaker QB who checks down too much but can still pilot a dominant defense to the postseason — than the guy who nearly lost his starting job to Chase Daniel last year. — CD
The “consensus will be wrong” pick: Saints over Buccaneers
We all picked the Saints to win. Duh. There’s Drew Brees’ swan song, a high-powered offense, a top defense that has the proven recipe for beating Tom Brady. And, after all, what do we really know about these Bucs?
This will totally end with the Bucs winning. Why? If 2020 has taught us anything, things can and will get worse. The Bucs will win, and Brady will throw four or five touchdowns to that impressive cast of skill players all because the universe is going to thrust upon us a season-long narrative dutifully carried forth by the networks and professional commentator class about how we just can’t count out Touchdown Tom. — RVB
The “yes, I know this is a bad pick” pick: Washington over Eagles
I don’t know how much I really believe that Washington will win. I know Washington almost beat the Eagles in Week 1 a year ago. I know Dwayne Haskins played his best game as a rookie the second time these teams met. I know Washington’s defensive line is fast approaching elite status. I know there is bound to be at least one upset this weekend.
Did I pick the right upset? Most likely not. Do I care? Nope!
This year, I’ve decided to allow myself to occasionally make risky picks and not feel bad when I whiff. Just please, never use my picks to place any bets. — SH
Recommended reading
If you like getting quality sports content in your inbox, we’d like to recommend some excellent newsletters put out by some of our former colleagues. For college football fun, check out Moon Crew from Spencer Hall, Jason Kirk, Alex Kirshner, and Richard Johnson. Matt Brown’s Extra Points delivers news and analysis from on and off the field.
There’s a ton of great basketball stuff out there starting with the gold standard, Tom Ziller’s Good Morning It’s Basketball. For a deep dive into the Xs and Os, Prada’s Pictures from Mike Prada is all you need. Matt Ellentuck is covering the WNBA on his substack, and it’s very much worth your time too.
James Brady, another one of our friends from the NFL desk at the old place, just started up a newsletter, Start Screen Pass, all about sports video games that we highly recommend. If you’re following the slightly delayed Tour de France this year, and you should be, Louis Bien is blogging all about it in newsletter form at I Dream in Polkadot.
I’m probably leaving someone off this list, and I already feel like a jerk for doing so. It’s hard to have all that great content at the front of your mind on a moment’s notice. If only there were some publication where all of these people were writing great things in one place …