Week 16: Playoff drama and draft order winners
The Jaguars locked down the No. 1 pick, while the Browns, Rams, Titans, and Washington missed golden opportunities to clinch a playoff spot.
What can Trevor Lawrence expect in Jacksonville?
The Jags, barring a massive miscalculation, will have the franchise quarterback for whom they’ve spent more than 15 years searching. With the top spot in the 2021 NFL Draft secured, Jacksonville is in prime position to turn Trevor Lawrence, the most hyped QB prospect since Andrew Luck, into their offensive savior.
That takes care of one problem. Now onto the other hundred plaguing the Jaguars.
Jacksonville’s fall as a franchise has been dramatic. The 2017 version of this team won 12 games and came within one quarter of a spot in Super Bowl 52. In the 47 regular season games since, they’ve won … 12 games. A formidable defense was sold off in pieces. Blake Bortles signed a three-year contract extension that went so well that he’s currently a member of the Denver Broncos … practice squad. Doug Marrone is still there!
The argument can be made that the best thing to happen at TIAA Bank Stadium since 2018 was Sammy Guevara eating 100+ yards of northern lights suplexes as part of the greatest wrestling match of this past year:
https://www.dailymotion.com/video/x7u3f2x
Despite the abject misery of a 1-14 campaign, there have been bright spots for the Jaguars that will extend into 2021 and beyond. So what will Jacksonville be working with in its quest to surround Lawrence with a winning roster?
Oodles of draft capital
By virtue of being the NFL’s worst team, the Jaguars will start 2021 with three picks among the first 65 selections. They’ll also have the Rams’ first-round selection as part of last year’s Jalen Ramsey trade and the Vikings’ second-rounder after dealing away Yannick Ngakoue this summer. Pending further trades, Jacksonville will have seven selections in the first four rounds.
That’s familiar, since this team had seven picks before Round 5 last year as well. Time will tell how that shotgun blast of roster building ultimately unfolds, but there appear to be some building blocks in the mix. Laviska Shenault is a legitimate starting NFL wide receiver and C.J. Henderson has shown flashes as a potential CB1. K’Lavon Chaisson hasn’t lived up to the hype as a top 20 pick. The jury is out on high-upside mid-round picks like Ben Bartch, DaVon Hamilton, and Josiah Scott.
Next year’s draft is loaded with quarterback talent and another deep stable of high-impact wide receivers. Lawrence is a given; could he come with a playmaker like JaMarr Chase, Chris Olave, or Pat Freiermuth? Will the Jags instead focus on rebuilding a once-proud defense in a draft dense with middle-of-the-field tacklers but limited in terms of dynamic pass rushers? Will they take a first-round cornerback for the second straight season?
It’s too early to make any kind of meaningful prediction, especially given Jacksonville’s wide range of needs. But if the Jaguars don’t take a stab at wideout help on the first two days of the draft, they’ll probably be fine because ...
The Jaguars boast impressive young supporting skill players
D.J. Chark is one of the league’s top wideouts, only he rarely gets to show it because he’s been stuck playing with underwhelming quarterbacks his entire NFL career:
He’s only 24 years old but already has a 1,000-yard season and a Pro Bowl invitation under his belt. That’s some real Allen Robinson energy, right down to the franchise where he began his cursed career. He’s the headliner of the Jags’ receiving corps, but there are several interesting young pieces around him. Shenault has been a multi-tool capable of scoring from any part of the field. Fellow rookie Collin Johnson, a nightmare matchup at 6’6 with limited straight-line speed but great ball skills, also looks like a keeper. That’s a versatile three-headed monster Lawrence can push to great heights.
There’s blossoming help on the ground to relieve the stress on a potentially overtaxed passing game, too. James Robinson spent his four years at Illinois State wrecking FCS defenses and trying not to smile:
Somehow a league that found lower-tier RB gems like David Johnson and Chase Edmonds whiffed on Robinson in the 2020 draft. That allowed him to slide to Jacksonville as an undrafted free agent. When Covid and other injuries ripped through the Jags depth chart, the bowling ball tailback seized his opportunity and refused to let go. His 1,070 rushing yards and four 100-yard games are both modern era rookie records from an undrafted player. He’s also added 3.5 catches per game, showcasing the skills that should make him an inexpensive piece moving forward.
But even if he were to sign a pricy, premature extension it wouldn’t matter much because …
The Jaguars have so, so much salary cap space
The league’s salary cap will shrink in 2021 due to the limited revenue of a pandemic-marred season. This won’t be much of a problem for Jacksonville; the team is expected to have more than $84 million in estimated cap space next spring — more than any team in the league but the New England Patriots.
That’s the kind of cash that can be thrown at pending free agents like Brandon Scherff, Joe Thuney, or Russell Okung to upgrade a bottom-10 offensive line. It could be spent on a veteran like Bud Dupree, Melvin Ingram, or Shaquil Barrett to add a powerful cantilever to Josh Allen’s edge rushing. Perhaps Anthony Harris or Justin Simmons could be lured to the Southeast to bring stability to a secondary that’s allowed opposing quarterbacks to post a 108.0 rating against them?
Adding Lawrence also means the Jags will have a bargain quarterback for the next three to four seasons thanks to his relatively cheap rookie contract. That spending room helped push teams like the Rams and Chiefs to recent Super Bowl appearances. The question is whether or not general manager Trent Baalke — or whomever supplants him if he’s shown the door this January — can bring in the proper talent to make his team elite.
There are a few defenders worth building around
Of the starters from that 2017 playoff defense, only Myles Jack remains. That’s depressing, but it makes sense to keep a do-it-all 25-year-old capable of providing the gravity to keep your defense’s solar system in orbit. The former UCLA star defender/part-time running back is having the best season of his budding career, setting personal bests in passer rating allowed in coverage (85.7) and missed tackle rate (6.7 percent).
He’s flanked by 2020’s most expensive acquisition, former Brown Joe Schobert. We’ve already talked about how his absence has hurt Cleveland, but on Sunday he showed how he’s helping the Jaguars. He had a sack and interception to continue a characteristically solid season:
2019 Pro Bowler Josh Allen is one of the game’s top pass rushers. A knee injury cost him half this season, but that feels equal parts preventative and beneficial for a team with little interest in winning games. Aforementioned first-round rookie Henderson was a revelation in his first game — knocking down three passes and intercepting Philip Rivers in the Jags’ only win of the year so far — but he’s given up nine yards per target and a 110.8 passer rating in the seven other games he’s played in 2020.
Chaisson has the raw talent to be a Pro Bowl pass rusher. Second-year safety Andrew Wingard could develop into a solid starting option. Taven Bryan and Josh Jones are, uh, certainly football players, sure.
That’s not a long list of defenders to be excited about, but it doesn’t have to be. The Jags just need a foundation to apply all their draft stock and cap space to. You can build from that Jack-Schobert-Allen-Henderson combo, even if it’s a little more quicksand than concrete.
Lawrence is going to walk into a locker room with weapons he can use to score a bunch of points and a defense that will make it a priority. If nothing else, it’s a great opportunity for a rookie of the year campaign. And hell, all he’s got to do is outplay David Garrard and he’ll be the best quarterback the Jaguars ever drafted.
OK, then. What should the Jets do now that they *can’t* get Trevor Lawrence?
Hooooo buddy, I genuinely don’t know … but it begins with firing Adam Gase with extreme prejudice. Let’s get back to this later. There’s a word limit for these emails, you know? — CD
Week 16 results, in five words or fewer
Saints 52, Vikings 33 (Friday)
Congrats, Alvin Kamara fantasy owners
Buccaneers 47, Lions 7 (Saturday)
Brady ends Bucs’ playoff drought
49ers 20, Cardinals 12 (Saturday)
Cardinals flop in must-win game
Dolphins 26, Raiders 25 (Saturday)
Chiefs 17, Falcons 14
Chiefs’ seventh straight close win
Bears 41, Jaguars 17
Ravens 27, Giants 13
Bengals 37, Texans 31
Steelers 28, Colts 24
Jets 23, Browns 16
Panthers 20, Washington 13
Chargers 19, Broncos 16
Cowboys 37, Eagles 17
Seahawks 20, Rams 9
Packers 40, Titans 14
Packers running in winter wonderland
This week’s playoff race and draft winners
Let’s take a quick look at which teams helped themselves most in the wild card race, as well as in the draft order.
Wild card winners
1. Dolphins
An improbable win in Vegas, courtesy of a little Fitzmagic, means the Dolphins are in the postseason if they beat the Bills (who could be resting their starters) next week.
2. Bears
The Bears have scored 30+ points in four straight weeks and are riding a three-game winning streak. If they can extend that to four games with a win over the Packers (who will be trying to sew up the No. 1 seed), then they’re officially in the playoffs. If not, they can still get in it if the Rams (probably minus Jared Goff) take down the Cardinals.
3. Cowboys
The red-hot Cowboys had just a 6 percent chance of making the playoffs until they worked over the Eagles on Sunday. That both guaranteed the Eagles wouldn’t defend their division title and increased Dallas’ odds of winning the NFC East to 27 percent. They’ll return to the playoffs if they beat the Giants next week and Washington loses to the Eagles — both of which could easily happen. As could another Andy Dalton first-round playoff loss.
Draft position winners
1. Jaguars
Jags fans were all-in on winning the Trevor Lawrence sweepstakes:
2. Dolphins
The Dolphins are one win away from the playoffs AND could land a top-five draft pick. Thanks, Texans!
3. Falcons
The first two picks of the draft are locked up, and next week will sort out the rest of the top 10. For now, though, Younghoe Koo’s missed kick has the Falcons holding the No. 4 pick. That’d put them in a prime spot to select Justin Fields/Trey Lance/Zach Wilson. — SH
Week 16 Pain Index
It was clear before Sunday that this would be a particularly painful week for several teams throughout the NFL. On Saturday, the Cardinals saw their playoff odds decline thanks to a third-string quarterback, while the Raiders’ slim postseason dreams flickered, then disappeared in a flash.
So when late injury news broke that affected two playoff hopefuls, I knew where we were headed. I made two changes to my Week 16 picks that ended up working out for me, switching to the Panthers and Jets. As much as it hurts to admit, Dwayne Haskins’ career in Washington is beyond saving (though I’m hoping he can carve out a role elsewhere next season), and when Alex Smith AND safety blanket Terry McLaurin were ruled out, I didn’t have a good feeling about Ron Rivera’s new squad beating his old one.
The Browns, due to the Colts’ collapse, could’ve broken the NFL’s longest postseason drought with a win over the lowly Jets. However, Covid protocols decimated their lineup to this point:
And sure enough, Washington and Cleveland, along with the Rams and Titans, came up short in their win-and-in playoff scenarios this week.
Because of the stakes involved, I did not consider any already-eliminated team for this week’s pain index. The Falcons may have lost another close game, this time against the one-loss Chiefs, when a potential game-tying field from their Pro Bowl kicker went wide right. A very Falcons result, yet not really one that merits much attention in Week 16. (Don’t worry, Falcons. You still made our first-team pain index list this season.)
The good news for those who couldn’t clinch this weekend is there’s one more week left in the regular season. The bad news is that their best chance at a bid might have already happened.
3. Colts
The Colts couldn’t secure a playoff berth this week unless the Dolphins or Ravens lost (which they didn’t). But they’d control their own destiny if they just held on to their 17-point lead against the free-falling Steelers.
Spoiler alert: They could not hold on to their 17-point lead. In just over 11 minutes of game time, the Steelers woke up from their three-game stupor to take their first lead of the day. On the Colts’ next possession, Philip Rivers threw a pick. On the one after that (their final of the game), they turned it over on downs.
Right now, the Colts are on the outside of the playoff picture looking in and can’t make it back to the postseason with simply a win next week. The teams right above them with the same 10-5 record — the Titans, Dolphins, Ravens, and Browns — are all in if they win. That makes their breakdown Sunday extra tough to swallow.
However, Indianapolis will be ready to pounce if one of those four teams falters in Week 17. And, of course, if the Colts can avenge their Week 1 loss to the Jaguars. (Either way, the only team to lose to the Jaguars this season will be the Colts. Congrats!)
2. Raiders
Just over a month ago, the Raiders were 6-3 and 30 seconds away from sweeping the season series against the Chiefs. But then Patrick Mahomes did Patrick Mahomes things, and the Chiefs pulled out the four-point win. It was the first of five losses in the past six weeks for the Raiders, whose only victory in that time came at the last second against the then-winless Jets.
Their playoff hopes were on life support after a ridiculous overtime loss to the Chargers last week. They were officially dashed on Saturday night after, somehow, an even more ridiculous loss to the Dolphins.
Jon Gruden decided he’d rather settle for a two-point lead with not much time left on the clock, rather than a five- or seven-point lead with a little more time remaining. From an analytics standpoint, the decision made sense; when the field goal went through the uprights with 19 seconds left, his team had a 99.9 percent chance to win. However, from an “I’ve seen the different ways the Raiders have lost this season” standpoint, it felt like the field goal was setting up the inevitable outcome.
I’m not sure anyone could’ve predicted exactly how the Dolphins would complete the comeback: the Raiders left a receiver wide open and Ryan Fitzpatrick connected with him, despite getting his head get Exorcist-ed:
Even Mahomes was impressed:
That extra 15 yards gave the Dolphins a relatively easy field goal attempt for the win. That not only boosted their own playoff chances, it also eliminated the Raiders from postseason contention and put a dent in the hopes of the No. 1 team on our list this week.
1. Browns
Before this year, the last time the Browns finished the season with a winning record was in 2007. They went 10-6 and still missed the playoffs. A similar fate may await them in 2020.
I’ve been on record saying that these are not the same old Browns whose entire personality is rooted in being loveable losers who can never catch a break. Yet, it’s hard to fully believe that when, less than 24 hours before they were set to play one of the worst teams in the NFL, their entire starting wide receiver corps got placed on the reserve/COVID-19 list, along with a couple linebackers. They were also down two starting offensive linemen.
Even so, all they needed to punch their playoff ticket was a win over the Jets, who looked destined for an 0-16 season until they stunned the Rams last week. Stars like Baker Mayfield, Nick Chubb, Austin Hooper, Kareem Hunt, Myles Garrett were active for Cleveland. Surely the Browns could handle their business because this year’s team is different!
Instead, Mayfield attempted 53 passes to mostly tight ends, running backs, and practice squad players (Mayfield attempting 40+ passes is never a good sign anyway). The running backs combined for 39 yards on 15 carries. Sam Darnold ran over a Super Bowl MVP. And the Browns were still in the game, despite trailing 20-3 in the third quarter.
With a minute and a half remaining and down by seven, the Browns faced a fourth-and-1 at the Jets’ 16-yard line. Mayfield, who had already lost two fumbles in the game, kept the ball and fumbled again. This time, his own teammate recovered it but couldn’t advance it, meaning Cleveland turned it, and its opportunity to clinch this week, over on downs.
It was a classic, in a tragic sense of the word, Browns loss. They can still make the playoffs if they win next week, and by then, they should have most of their starters back. Unfortunately for them, they’re going up against their biggest nemesis: the Steelers. The Browns were thumped 38-7 by the Steelers earlier this season and haven’t vanquished Ben Roethlisberger since 2014. If these really are the new Browns, then they’ll prove it next week. I’m just not as optimistic as I once was. — SH