Week 13: Who is Trevor Lawrence rooting for?
And if you think the Jets were actually tanking on that last play, you don't know the Jets. Plus, the mind of Baker Mayfield and more fall out from Sunday's games.
Who is Trevor Lawrence rooting for?
This Sunday's early slate of games … wasn’t great. The Browns boat-raced the Titans, only to leave them with a sliver of hope late. Taysom Hill prolonged Atlanta’s misery. Mitchell Trubisky proved Matt Patricia was his good luck charm against the Lions.
But in the midst of these forgettable games were two very bad teams with one very good reason to lose them. The Jets and Jaguars are presently locked in a battle for the first pick in the 2021 NFL Draft and the quarterback who’ll almost certainly come with it: Clemson’s Trevor Lawrence.
Lawrence is widely considered to be the most promising college prospect since Andrew Luck. The 6’6 statue of a passer has been a revelation since stepping onto campus, throwing for 9,300 yards and 86 touchdowns in 38 NCAA games and leading the Tigers to a national championship along the way.
He’s the kind of player who can instantly transform a bottom feeder into a playoff team. If he can live up to expectations, he’d easily become the top quarterback either the Jets or Jaguars have had in the past two decades. And, so, New York and Jacksonville have turned their goals from contention to fielding the worst possible versions of their current teams.
For New York, that’s meant keeping Adam Gase as head coach well beyond his expiration date. Jacksonville’s counterpunch has been a revolving door of quarterbacks that includes Gardner Minshew (reasonable!), Jake Luton, and Mike Glennon (much less so). Neither team has been especially coy about its plans to be bad. As a result, “bad” won’t be enough to secure Lawrence’s services; only **awful** will do.
The Jets can secure that top spot by fulfilling their destiny as the league’s third-ever 0-16 team. The Jaguars, trending toward 1-15, are nipping at their heels. Each team made the grave mistake of nearly winning Sunday, as New York blew a four-point lead with … FIVE SECONDS TO PLAY ARE YOU KIDDING ME. Jacksonville, not to be outdone, needed a field goal on their first drive in overtime to defeat the Vikings and promptly threw an interception in its own territory, allowing Minnesota to score the game-winning points.
The race to No. 1 next spring is down to two teams. So if you’re Lawrence, who are you rooting for to slip up and accidentally win a game this December? Let’s break it down by a few key categories.
Offensive line
Each team had given up 30 sacks through 11 games, which isn’t ideal. The Jets revamped their offensive line for 2020 with limited improvements, though rookie left tackle/human monster truck Mekhi Becton has looked every bit a foundational piece in New York.
The Jaguars’ young blocker haul is headlined by a D3 star whose biggest contribution to this year’s NFL Scouting Combine was his horrific weight-gainer shake recipe (that aside, Ben Bartch is pretty rad and I think he’ll be great, just not Becton great). Each team has an estimated $78m+ in salary cap space to make improvements next offseason, so either side is capable of significant upgrades in order to keep Lawrence upright.
Advantage: Jets
Receivers
Let’s start with the Jets. Denzel Mims looks like a legit building block, albeit one suffering from growing pains and bad QB play. Jamison Crowder is a slot monster (and the only fantasy player you trusted from the Jets this year). Breshad Perriman is, if nothing else, good for four strong games per year. The less said about the tight ends, the better.
The Jaguars have an extremely fun young 1-2 punch with D.J. Chark (doo doo doo doooo do do) and Collin Johnson, who has eight catches for 162 yards the last two games. Their tight ends are *also* butt.
Advantage: Jaguars, but not by a lot.
Running game
New York’s leading rusher this season is 37-year-old Frank Gore, who is not under contract for 2021. Jacksonville’s leading rusher is James Robinson, who has more yards on the ground than all but two other players this fall. As a former undrafted free agent, he’s under team control on dirt cheap terms effectively through 2023.
Advantage: hoooooo buddy, Jags by a mile.
Defense
Both optional. At least we know for sure former DC Gregg Williams won’t be calling the shots in New York next fall.
Advantage: none
Division opponents
The AFC East is in disarray now that the Patriots are mortal, but nine wins has won the AFC South twice in the last five seasons (and no division winner has had 12+ wins since 2012). Would you rather play guaranteed road games in the bachelorette party capital of Nashville and the domed confines of Houston and Indianapolis, or go to Buffalo in the snow and have sex toys thrown at you in a stadium that reeks of cinnamon whiskey?
Advantage: Jets, because that last part actually sounds awesome.
Franchise prestige
Neither team has any.
Advantage: push
Setting
New York has bars that stay open until 4am and a food scene many people will fight you over. Jacksonville has one great college football tailgate every year and a chance to hang out with Chris Jericho. But hey, that rookie scale contract is gonna last a lot longer in north Florida (no state income tax!), so there’s that.
Advantage: Jets. By a lot.
The verdict
After having his choice of blue chip programs as a five-star recruit, Lawrence’s NFL destination is effectively a battle between two barely accredited community colleges. The Jets, with a slightly better offensive line, similarly boom-or-bust receiving corps, and Bills-adjacentness, seem like the better fit for a player like Lawrence. But Jacksonville can offer him a Chark-Robinson running crew and the opportunity to gain access to the “greatest player in franchise history” club for a very low cover charge.
Neither destination looks great, but this is a world where Iceland became a honeymoon hot spot for millennials. New York and Jacksonville both have some nice pieces in place, plenty of spending room, and a handful of draft assets to make immediate improvements to terrible rosters. Lawrence will be fine wherever he ends up.
As long as Adam Gase isn’t there. — CD
Week 13 results, in five words or fewer
Browns 41, Titans 35
Browns guaranteed a winning record
Dolphins 19, Bengals 7
Saints 21, Falcons 16
Lions 34, Bears 30
An un-Lions-like win post-Patricia
Raiders 31, Jets 28
Colts 26, Texans 20
Vikings 27, Jaguars 24 (OT)
Giants 17, Seahawks 12
The Seahawks are Schottenheimering
Rams 38, Cardinals 28
Death, taxes, McVay beating Cardinals
Packers 30, Eagles 16
Patriots 45, Chargers 0
Chiefs 22, Broncos 16
All About Steve
It’s that time of year again: the playoff picture is back! Well, the Jets and Jaguars had already been eliminated from postseason contention before Week 13 (and were joined by the Bengals and Chargers on Sunday). But for the first time this season, teams could start clinching a playoff berth.
The Saints, Chiefs, and Steelers all entered the week with a chance to secure their spot. The Saints and Chiefs took care of their business, and the Steelers can make it 3-for-3 with a win over Washington on Monday evening.
Even if the Steelers get upset, it’s only a matter of time until they’re officially in. The real drama comes from the competitive division races and the teams on the playoff bubble. So NBC recruited political analyst Steve Kornacki, who helped many of us survive election night, to discuss the latest postseason scenarios and odds:
I don’t know that this man, who spent approximately 22 hours a day on our TV the week of the election discussing Maricopa, Allegheny, and Wayne Counties, deserves to break down the NFC East race for us each week, but he’s a welcome part of the Sunday Night Football broadcast. — SH
Inside the mind of Baker Mayfield
The Browns are on their way to ending the NFL’s longest current playoff drought, sometimes because of Baker Mayfield’s efforts and sometimes in spite of them. This season, Mayfield has alternated between looking like the Browns’ long-awaited franchise quarterback and looking like, well, a typical Browns quarterback. In six games (all wins), the third-year passer has registered a passer rating of at least 100. In the other six games (3-3), his passer rating has fallen below an 87.
A week ago, he made this throw:
Then on Sunday in Tennessee, he passed for twice as many touchdowns (4) in the first half than he did the entire month of November (2, both of which came last week). The Browns jumped out to a 38-7 halftime lead and held on for their ninth win of the season.
After the game, Mayfield continued with his recent schtick of quoting, in a deadpan manner, a random piece of pop culture:
His previous references include Parks and Rec, Talladega Nights, those old Holiday Inn Express commercials, and Snoop Dogg lyrics. Those are all perfectly acceptable references to make, even if his taste skews into “generic white guy” territory. But he never picks the most obvious quote, and unsurprisingly, the star of every other commercial on TV nails his line delivery.
Since I’ve given up trying to figure out what to expect out of Mayfield on the football field any given week, I’ve decided to guess what his next pop culture allusion will be.
Based on this sample size, he has mainstream preferences and favors the comedy genre. Nothing that’s considered obscure, but nothing too basic either. Mayfield doesn’t have a lot of free time during the season, so his pop culture diet probably leans toward what he’s already familiar with — in other words, right now, he’s more likely to rewatch The Office than start Schitt’s Creek from the beginning. He also wants you to understand the reference, even if you don’t recognize it the second it comes out of his mouth.
Under that criteria, here are my top three guesses as to what we’ll hear from Mayfield at his next postgame presser:
1. Elf
“There are some things you should know. First off, you see gum on the street, leave it there. It isn't free candy." — Santa
Now that it’s December, it’s likely Mayfield will reference a holiday classic at some point this month. We already know he has a penchant for Will Ferrell movies, as do most dudes who remember the aughts, which makes Elf the most obvious choice.
I think he’s more likely to quote Santa than the innocent, buoyant Buddy — notice how he gravitated toward Dwight Schrute and Ron Swanson rather than Leslie Knope or Michael Scott. Buddy might not be alpha enough for Baker.
2. Die Hard
“Just a fly in the ointment, Hans. The monkey in the wrench. The pain in the ass.” — John McClane
Although Die Hard is not a comedy — and whether it’s a Christmas movie or not is up for debate — it has its share of funny moments. It also seems very much up Mayfield’s alley: a testosterone-filled flick about an everyman playing the hero to take down an America-hating terrorist.
In this case, Mayfield would be drawn to the main character. He’s probably pretended to be John McClane before, so he’d pick one of his sayings over a Hans Gruber one.
3. Brooklyn Nine-Nine
“Sarcasm, the coward's lie." — Captain Raymond Holt
Mayfield appears partial to Michael Schur shows, but Brooklyn Nine-Nine has never had as big of a cultural impact as The Office and Parks and Rec. Yet it’s still on air and has been on long enough to make its way into syndication. Plus, Mayfield could have easily binge-watched the show on Hulu, one of the many companies he’s hawked for this year.
Even though Mayfield is a total Jake Peralta (probably down to the Die Hard fandom), he’d be an admirer of Andre Braugher’s impeccably droll delivery as the no-nonsense Captain Holt. And judging by the Ron Swanson quote he chose, Mayfield also likes to call things, whether tangible or conceptual, liars.
Now that I’ve analyzed Baker Mayfield, pop culture aficionado, I feel like I have a deeper understanding of him. Again, strictly off the football field. I still have no idea what to make of him as an NFL quarterback. — SH
The Week 13 Pain Index
For years now, I’ve spent every Sunday afternoon during the season glued to NFL RedZone. As the first slate of games winds down and Scott Hanson pipes in with, “Ladies and gentlemen, we have entered the witching hour, when wins become losses and losses become wins,” I say the familiar refrain along with him. This is extremely cool of me, I know.
This week, during the 200th episode of RedZone, we got what was perhaps our most intense five-minute witching hour yet. All but one game in the early window was decided by six points or fewer and came down to the wire. The only one that didn’t was Dolphins-Bengals, and that had its own tension thanks to the several brawls that broke out.
While that kind of excitement feeds our dopamine cravings, it also delivers a cruel sting to those who wind up on the losing end, like the three teams in the Week 13 pain index. — SH
3. J-E-T-S
For the last few weeks I’ve been convinced that the Jets are going to actually win a game. We need chaos in the race for the top of the draft order; the universe demands it. But this is what happens when you believe in a team owned by Woody Johnson and coached by Adam Gase to be anything but spectacularly incompetent.
The Jets looked so bad letting the Raiders pull out a last-second win that the most logical conclusion floated on the Internet was that they were tanking, keeping a step ahead of the one-win Jaguars to hang onto the top pick in the draft. That’s giving this team too much credit. Way too much. Friend of the program Geoff Schwartz sums it up well:
And this stat backs him up:
I watched Gregg Williams coach the Rams defense for three seasons when head coach Jeff Fisher hired him in 2014 as part of the NFL’s last name legacy program (also known as nepotism). Sending eight men on a blitz at a moment like that is not at all surprising. The only a-ha moment I had watching that was when I remembered who the Jets DC was.
The most amazing thing about Williams has been his ability to remain an NFL coach. After his stint with the Rams, he went to Cleveland for two seasons, until he got cleared out with the coaching staff there, and promptly landed with the Jets alongside Gase.
Both Occam’s Razor and informed reporting tells us that Gase and Williams will most likely be gone after the season. I’m not convinced that will be the case because of the immutable law of NFL coach firing which says that, like a cheap steak sitting in your large intestine, bad coaches tend to linger well past the time they should have been dumped. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a snake like Gase make Williams and some of the other staffers scapegoat here.
Maybe I’m wrong. If not, I just hope Trevor Lawrence’s NFL career can be fixed after whatever Gase and Co. do it next season. — RVB
2. Bears
Thanks to the Lions, teams that have fired their coach midseason are now a solid 3-0 in the first game after handing out the pink slip. Under normal circumstances I’d chalk up Chicago’s loss to the fact that Detroit was playing without bad guy Matt Patricia on the sidelines, but since this is now six losses in a row for the Bears — who even had a 10-point lead in the fourth quarter here — they get a heaping helping of scorn for the loss.
It figures that the Bears lost this one because of a Mitchell Trubisky fumble with less than two minutes to play. Without rehashing who they did NOT draft when they traded up to get Trubisky back in 2017, it’s that decision more than anything that’s doomed this franchise’s most recent string of miserable play (and there are a lot of underwhelming eras in Bears history). He was supposed to be the franchise keystone opening up a championship window while playing on a rookie contract. Instead, he’s just dragging them down, and now likely to get some people fired when the Bears’ season mercifully ends. — RVB
1. Seahawks
The cabal of overly conservative coaches, a secret society led by Jeff Fisher as far as we know, would definitely have approved of Pete Carroll’s decision to punt on fourth-and-6 from the Giants’ 7-yard line in the second quarter.
But the most shocking bad fourth down decision was an all too familiar one for the Seahawks. Third quarter, trailing 8-5, and looking at a fourth-and-1 from their own 48, the Seahawks decided to, yep, they passed it. Nevermind how well Chris Carson was running. GOOD THING THIS HAS NEVER BEEN A PROBLEM FOR YOU BEFORE, SEAHAWKS!
The heaving Hail Mary with just under a minute to go on fourth down at the end of the game maybe wasn’t the best play call either. But I still can’t get over Seattle throwing the got dang football on fourth-and-1 as if that’s an entirely new concept for this franchise. They should be haunted forever by that play call, you know the one I’m talking about.
Pete Carroll struggling with fourth downs is nothing new, but it’s really bizarre to see Russell Wilson playing himself out of the MVP conversation. I’m not sure what exactly is going on here, but I think it miiiiiiiiight have something to do with Brian Schottenheimer, like Gregg Williams another beneficiary of the NFL’s “my dad used to coach” meritocracy. — RVB