The Raiders offseason has been as maddening as you’d expect
Plus: Congrats to the Chargers on winning a future Super Bowl and how Zach Wilson can win the Jets' QB job
Which, if nothing else, is an impressive display of consistency.
The Raiders are not a bad team. In 2020 they were good enough to beat playoff teams like the Saints, Chiefs, and Browns. They were also bad enough to lose to the Falcons (by 37!!!) and were a last-gasp brainfart away from losing to the aforementioned Jets’ carnival of failure. This was, in fact, a flawed team.
Two major concerns have plagued the team the past two years of the Jon Gruden regime. His pass rush — having traded Khalil Mack away for what appears to be one solid running back (Josh Jacobs) and a handful of magic beans (Damon Arnette, Bryan Edwards, various Day 3 jetsam) — had 32 sacks in 2019 (eighth-worst in the NFL) and 21 last fall (fourth-worst). His passing attack, led by a useful but unspectacular Derek Carr, has lacked power behind star tight end Darren Waller. Addressing a once-dominant offensive line also became an issue this winter after a season in which Las Vegas ranked 24th among NFL blocking groups, per PFF.
There should be an easy fix for these issues, or at least a common sense one. Instead, the Raiders have burned cap space on relative positions of strength and kept alive a tradition of absolutely baffling draft picks.
Take this year’s free agent haul. Signing Yannick Ngakoue after a relative down year for $26 million over two years was a solid move meant to address a glaring weakness. That’s good! Days later, Vegas burned $11 million for two years of Kenyan Drake in the wake of a season in which he was outplayed by Chase Edmonds in Arizona. Jacobs and Jalen Richard are still on the roster. This is bad!
But the Raiders’ free agency success may be deferred to their lower-cost signings which bring the same boom-or-bust energy as last year’s Nelson Agholor deal. Casey Hayward emerged as one of the best slot corners in the league as a Charger, but he had just one interception and a career-worst five touchdowns allowed in his age 31 season. John Brown is a reliable WR2 or WR3 type, but he’s coming off a year in which nagging injuries limited him to only 33 catches in nine games. Solomon Thomas was once a top-three draft pick and is only 25 years old, but he’s also had only five starts and three tackles for loss in his last two seasons with the 49ers. Karl Joseph is back in the lineup after a gap year in Cleveland — one where he sucked at least as much as any safety not named Andrew Sendejo.
All four of these new arrivals could punch up positions of need with above-average play. Or they could implode and leave a crater on the Raiders’ 2021 season. The good news is any significant mistake the club made in the first month of free agency can be wiped clean after two seasons. Unfortunately, that doesn’t apply to the team’s draft strategy.
The Raiders draft was as delightfully weird as Gruden himself
Let’s start with that offensive line. Getting Trent Brown, Gruden’s prized acquisition of 2019 and a Pro Bowler in his first year with the team, healthy again would have been a boon for Vegas. Instead, he was traded to New England for a swap of Day 3 picks after restructuring his contract down to a reasonable 2021 cap hit.
That’s okay! This year’s draft class was loaded with mid-round Day 1 tackles who could have filled Brown’s spot. When the Raiders approached the podium at No. 17, prospects like Christian Darrisaw and Teven Jenkins, both graded as strong first-round selections, remained available.
Gruden didn’t take either one of those guys. Rather, he drafted Alabama’s Alex Leatherwood, a man NFL.com’s Daniel Jeremiah immediately compared to, gulp, Cameron Erving.
Weird, but fine. Leatherwood’s selection was mitigated when Gruden and general manager Mike Mayock stopped TCU star Trevon Moehrig — mocked by several experts as 2021’s top safety — from sliding out of the top 50 by making him Vegas’ second-round pick. In two rounds, the Raiders had gotten a guy considered a first-round pick and one considered a Day 2 guy. They did it out of order, but if it’s stupid and it works, well, it’s not stupid.
What Las Vegas did next might not work. The Raiders spent the 79th pick on Malcolm Koonce, who like Mack was a University at Buffalo pass rusher but unlike Mack was rated as a fifth-round selection. One pick later came safety Divine Deablo, whose name will look great on the back of a jersey in the Black Hole but was described by the Pro Football Network thusly:
“Virginia Tech safety Divine Deablo offers versatility and experience as a 2021 NFL Draft prospect. He was used in multiple ways during his college career and has demonstrated his coverage ability and physicality as a tackler. With more consistency, he could carve out a starting role in the NFL.”
Eep.
The fourth and fifth rounds brought a couple more defensive backs who may make a difference, but probably won’t. Few teams in the league have devoted more draft capital to their secondary than the Raiders, and no one has gotten less as a result. Since 2016 Vegas has drafted Joseph, Gareon Conley, Obi Melifonwu, Trayvon Mullen, Johnathan Abram, and Damon Arnette in the first three rounds. Joseph, as previously noted, is bad. Conley was injured last season and is still a free agent. Melifonwu was both out of football last season. Abram gave up a 111.4 rating in coverage last season. Arnette allowed a 78 percent completion rate as a rookie and Mullen has been … fine.
This is all a long aside to say the guys we think might suck as Raiders probably will. If these players turn out to be great, analysts out there will happily eat crow as Gruden lifts another Lombardi Trophy and secures another decade of baffling Skechers ads. That doesn’t change the fact many of these players would have been available later on in the draft, allowing Gruden and Mayock to spend their first- and third-round picks on players generally accepted to be first- and third-round talents.
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Where does this leave the Raiders? Their pass rush might not be terrible if a MAC defensive end can bail them out once more and Ngakoue looks more like the pissed off wrecking ball who escaped Jacksonville than the guy who was occasionally invisible in Minnesota and Baltimore last year. The passing defense could make a leap forward if Hayward and a handful of young prospects exceed expectations, though history suggests they won’t. Their passing offense depends on a rookie coming off his worst year in college, a 31-year-old John Brown, and the lingering expectation Richie Incognito won’t get arrested for punching a police horse.
This all adds up to a very familiar feeling. Las Vegas will, once again, be strong enough to beat some very good teams. It will be, once again, weak enough to lose to some very bad ones.
In other words, the Jon Gruden Raiders will be the Jon Gruden Raiders. If nothing else, it’ll be a fun ride. — CD
Congratulations to the Chargers, future winners of Super Bowl 56
The Chargers have never won a Super Bowl. That could be about to change, if they have unlocked the secret formula:
Coincidence? Well yes, probably.
Last offseason, the Buccaneers drafted Tristan Wirfs and Antoine Winfield Jr. with their first two picks, and both played major roles in their rookie year. Wirfs allowed just one sack all season, including four playoff games. In 19 appearances, Winfield Jr. was out there for 97.7 percent of the defense’s plays. Those are lofty standards to try to live up to, even though Slater and Samuel Jr. are good enough to start immediately for the Chargers.
There’s also the manner in which the Bucs’ roster came together. Similar to the way ‘90s boy bands were assembled in Florida, they were designed for one purpose. But while the Backstreet Boys (Boyses?) of the world were created to make money, the Bucs were built to win a Super Bowl. And make money, because this is the NFL/America. All it took was a popular lead (Tom Brady) to sign on, and the rest followed.
Justin Herbert has something Brady doesn’t — an NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year award. But he doesn’t have Brady’s clout or, y’know, seven Super Bowl rings. Nor do the Chargers have the experience and proven success of Tampa’s coaching staff. (Seriously, who are any of these guys?!) And then there’s also the mystical curse that has plagued the Chargers since their existence.
Despite all of that, and the fact the Chargers are doomed to play in the same division as Patrick Mahomes, I’m feeling bullish on them right now. Not Super Bowl bullish, but I think they’re making the right moves toward becoming a playoff contender. At least until curse kicks in again, triggering the annual season-ending ACL tears and Achilles injuries. — SH
How Zach Wilson can “earn” the Jets’ starting quarterback job
I dunno, show up once a week? Have a pulse? The last guy got mono, saw ghosts, and won 13 games in three seasons yet remained the unimpeachable #1 option.
Good lord. — CD