The key to a Baker Mayfield revival, Week 2 picks, and ... Emmy predictions
This is a pro-Jackie Daytona newsletter.
Kevin Stefanski stabilized Baker Mayfield (for now) by moving him all over the place
Baker Mayfield looked like a franchise quarterback for eight games as a rookie. Then he fell into an abyss in 2019 as the Browns went from AFC North frontrunner to, sigh, another losing season. He stayed there through a disheartening opening day loss to the Ravens. The former top overall pick couldn’t muster any semblance of consistency in a 39-pass, 189-yard performance that set his early 2020 standard to “short Brock Osweiler.”
But head coach Kevin Stefanski, who’d gleaned career years from passers like Case Keenum and Kirk Cousins as an assistant with the Vikings, found a way to bring back the gunslinger who emerged as a potential rookie of the year candidate in 2018. He roasted an overwhelmed Cincinnati defense en route to 167 passing yards and two touchdowns in the first half of the Browns’ 35-30 primetime victory. Though he slowed down in the final two quarters, his passer rating swung from 65.0 in Week 1 to 110.6 on Thursday night.
The key to Mayfield’s revival? A gutsy playbook that pushed his mobility to the limit and dared him to throw on the run. The young QB’s biggest problem in Week 1 was lingering in the pocket, staring down trouble, and making poorly thought-out throws from his back foot. That combination led to a league-high 3.2 seconds per throw in the pocket. The next closest guys were Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen, who ran for 102 combined yards. Mayfield ran for … three.
In Week 2, Stefanski’s lineup of designed rollouts and play-action allowed the Browns to embrace a high-variance high school-style Waggle playbook that took advantage of their quarterback’s mobility and their wideouts’ ability to follow him through gaps in coverage. Instead of freezing in the pocket, Mayfield delivered frozen ropes on crossing routes to Jarvis Landry and Odell Beckham Jr.
Mayfield’s mobility and success in play-action sets also threw a wrench into the Bengals’ early reads, stifling the Cincinnati defense and allowing Nick Chubb the room to thrive. The Browns’ high-octane passing game kept their opponents’ linebackers and safeties backed off the line of scrimmage waiting to see what Mayfield would do. This allowed Cleveland’s blockers ample time to pull upfield and create an easy numbers game win in the run game. This was best exemplified by this delayed handoff that may have been the easiest big gain of his night:
That play, in turn, set up a 43-yard touchdown pass where Beckham was able to torch single coverage down the sideline thanks to Mayfield’s play-action sell.
The plan wasn’t infallible. A fourth-quarter drive that could have effectively ended the game with a touchdown ended with an interception at the goal line. Mayfield was responsible; he ran a play-action pass into pressure, dodged a sack, and then flipped the ball upfield without seeing the safety help blanketing tight end Harrison Bryant. Faced with a clock-grinding, run-first attack, he threw for only 52 second-half yards.
He’s still a work in progress, but so are the Browns. It was only one win against the Bengals — a win the Cleveland defense seemed invested in keeping Cincinnati around for — but it was a step in the right direction for a franchise that typically moves backward and a quarterback who cast off some real Mitchell Trubisky vibes a week earlier. — CD
Browns vs. Bengals, in five words or fewer: Burrow good, Baker/Browns better
Week 2 picks
This week’s guest picker is another SB Nation alum who’s gone on to do great things (stop us if you’ve heard that before). Richard Johnson was both a key piece of SBN’s college football team and a founding member of Banner Society. He’s now a founding member of Moon Crew and helped write a stellar college football sci-fi western called The Sinful Seven (available for only $14.99!). He also drops knowledge for Yahoo Sports (Canada, the most powerful of the Yahoo Sports) and is here to bring you against the spread picks with colleague Alex Kirshner as well. The man gets work.
After a surprisingly entertaining Thursday Night Football game, half of our panel is 1-0 and the other half is 0-1 headed into the weekend. Here are our picks for the other 15 games:
The “I changed my mind at least a dozen times” pick: Colts vs. Vikings
This week’s coin-toss game features two playoff hopefuls that both started the season 0-1. The Vikings are coming off a bigger loss to a better team, while the Colts got Philip Rivers’d against the Jaguars.
I think both teams can turn things around quickly, though. I originally picked the Colts because I thought they were closer to being a finished product. The Vikings are younger and probably have the higher upside, but it might take a little longer than I realized for them to mesh. Then I picked the Vikings because the Colts have a penchant for starting the season 0-2 (four times since 2014).
Then I went back and forth a few more times until I finally decided to stick with the Colts. It’s hard to have much confidence in either team (or quarterback in a late-game situation), but in a toss-up game like this, it didn’t feel right for the entire panel to agree on the winner. So I let the guys have the Vikings and I’ll try my luck with the Colts. — SH
The “stop disappointing me” pick: Falcons vs. Cowboys
I have a habit of picking the Cowboys to win more games than they actually do. They have a habit of losinggames they should win but coming up just short for stupid reasons, most glaringly due to coaching — like last week. The Falcons also looked the same as usual in Week 1: Matt Ryan and Julio Jones racking up yards, the defense clearly in over their heads. Both results were disheartening for their fanbase but not exactly surprising.
Their Week 2 matchup in Dallas will have fans in the stands because, well, Jerry Jones. The Cowboys are a 4.5-point favorite and once again should win. But the Falcons also decide to play competent football at random times, and the Cowboys are dealing with a long list of injuries, so this isn’t a guaranteed win for Dallas. I’m going with the Cowboys again, though. Maybe they won’t disappoint me this time. — SH
The “they’re letting Russ cook!” pick: Patriots vs. Seahawks
I’m thrilled to see Cam Newton get his reclamation project off on the right foot. He put the Patriots offense on his back by using his legs for key first downs and touchdowns, but still managed to go 15 of 19 through the air despite his team’s depleted receiving corps.
It looks like, once again, Bill Belichick has outsmarted the rest of the league ... but how much stock can we put in a home win over the Dolphins?
The Patriots get much more of a challenge Sunday against a Seahawks team that absolutely smoked a similarly overmatched opponent to start the season. Russell Wilson threw four touchdown passes to batter the Falcons, leaving us wondering if this is the year he finally gets an MVP nod and convincing Bill Belichick he’s “underrated” (he is).
Two veteran mobile quarterbacks capable of playing at elite levels get their first real tests of the season after torching bad defenses in Week 1. Ultimately, I think Wilson is the better passer with better tools at his disposal (DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, a somehow still-impactful Greg Olsen), which should be enough to cancel out New England’s advantages in the secondary. Wilson’s scrambling ability (including a 28-yard scamper last week) also gives him the latitude to pass up forced throws and keep New England on its heels.
It’ll be close, because Patriots-Seahawks games always are. But I like overclocked Russ more than the New England defense this week. — CD
The “can’t ring in our $2 billion stadium with a loss” pick: Saints vs. Raiders
Derek Carr is better than Jon Gruden gives him credit for. He’s better than what oddsmakers, who’ve installed the Saints as a six-point favorite, give him credit for too.
Carr brought his low-risk, high-efficiency passing game back to the lineup to upset the Panthers in Week 1 behind a solid performance (239 yards, one touchdown, 107.5 passer rating). Now he gets the chance to prove Las Vegas is HIS TOWN by leading the Raiders to their first-ever win in Nevada, all against the backdrop of a brand-new, Death Star-looking (and, sadly, empty) Allegiant Stadium. Though he gets a tougher challenge from the New Orleans secondary in Week 2, he’s steady enough to avoid the communication errors and off-target throws that doomed Tom Brady’s first foray in pewter and wine.
Are there issues with the Vegas passing defense? ABSOLUTELY (it mostly sucks). But without Michael Thomas in the lineup — he’s likely to miss the game due to a high ankle sprain suffered Sunday — who’s going to exploit it? Drew Brees averaged just 4.5 air yards per pass to kick off his age-41 season and is more of a check-down passer than ever before. Emmanuel Sanders’ New Orleans debut saw him catch three passes for 15 yards. Other than Jared Cook, no one looked ready to replace the impact Thomas left behind on opening day.
If the Raiders can keep the Saints stuck in neutral through the air and avoid big runs (reasonable, considering they held Christian McCaffrey to a high of 15), they can hang around long enough for Carr to grind his way to a win. And Gruden will probably still look for ways to replace him in the weeks that follow. — CD
Bonus picks, Emmy edition
Cam Newton’s primetime debut with the Patriots isn’t the only major event Sunday night. The Emmys will be airing live at the same time, so if the Patriots-Seahawks duel unexpectedly turns out to be a dud, then you can flip over to watch the virtual awards ceremony.
As a lifelong TV fan, and someone who hasn’t left my house much in six months, I’ve watched nearly all the shows and limited series that were nominated this year. I won’t make predictions for every category, but there are a few races I’d like to highlight.
The slam dunk: Limited Series
Little Fires Everywhere
Mrs. America
Unbelievable
Unorthodox
Watchmen
When I watched Unbelievable last fall, I didn’t think anything could possibly top it. Then Watchmen came along. Watchmen is the best and most culturally significant TV program in years.
While this is the most loaded category at this year’s Emmys (and it doesn’t even include two snubs, Normal People and The Plot Against America), there’s no easier pick to make. Second-easiest? Probably Watchmen star Regina King winning for Lead Actress in a Limited Series.
Don’t bet against the favorite: Drama Series
Better Call Saul
The Crown
The Handmaid’s Tale
Killing Eve
The Mandalorian
Ozark
Stranger Things
Succession
Better Call Saul is my personal preference, but given that leads Bob Odenkirk and Rhea Seehorn weren’t even nominated, I think we can, sadly, count it out. Succession is the obvious favorite here and almost assuredly will win. Plus, it’s about a media family behaving badly. Emmy voters eat that up.
I’d expect a huge night overall for Succession, including lead actor (either Brian Cox or Jeremy Strong) and supporting actor (my guess is Kieran Culkin).
There could be hijinks: Comedy Series
Curb Your Enthusiasm
Dead to Me
The Good Place
Insecure
The Kominsky Method
The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
Schitt’s Creek
What We Do in the Shadows
Schitt’s Creek is still the best bet, but if there’s one thing that gives me pause, it’s this: How often does a veteran show win its only Emmys in its final season? The comedy series category is also where Emmy voters can get a bit unpredictable. Sometimes, they stick with the same show for several years in a row (Veep, Modern Family in recent years) and other times they’re not afraid of going edgier and less mainstream (Fleabag last year, Season 1 of Arrested Development). The Emmys love The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel, which took home the top prize two years ago, and could go back to it. Or, they could embrace their occasional offbeat tendencies and be the first award show to properly recognize the brilliance of What We Do in the Shadows.
The one I’m rooting for most: Writing For A Comedy Series
The Good Place, “Whenever You’re Ready”
The Great, “The Great”
Schitt’s Creek, “Happy Ending”
Schitt’s Creek, “The Presidential Suite”
What We Do In The Shadows, “Collaboration”
What We Do In The Shadows, “Ghosts”
What We Do In The Shadows, “On The Run”
The “On The Run” episode of What We Do in The Shadows introduced us to regular human bartender Jackie Daytona. Not only did Jackie Daytona instantly become a pop culture legend, but the episode produced the weirdest, funniest, most original 30 minutes of TV all year. I can’t adequately explain why it works as well as it does, and that’s a credit to everyone involved, the writers most of all:
My upset pick: Variety Talk Series
The Daily Show with Trevor Noah
Full Frontal with Samantha Bee
Jimmy Kimmel Live
Last Week Tonight with John Oliver
Late Show with Stephen Colbert
There is perhaps no category more predictable than variety series. The Daily Show with Jon Stewart won 10 consecutive times until its spinoff, The Colbert Report, interrupted that streak with two straight wins of its own. TDS’ final trophy came in Stewart’s final year (the first time “variety talk series” and “variety sketch series” became two separate categories). Since then, former Daily Show correspondent/guest host John Oliver has owned the category.
So yeah, shows hosted by white men have dominated this award.
It might be foolish to bet against Oliver’s four-year streak ending this year, and I’m not sure how much I believe it’ll happen. He’s still doing important work (centering an entire episode about the Postal Service before a lot of Americans even realized there was a crisis). He’s still discovering absurd ways to have a laugh with his audience (rat erotica).
It took Trevor Noah some time to find his footing after he replaced Stewart, but over the past two years in particular he has made The Daily Show his own. And he’s been at his best since he’s filmed the show from his apartment in March. Noah has been able to connect to viewers through smart, insightful, sometimes emotional commentary about current events, and from a perspective they don’t get elsewhere. He’s also made it a point to bring in guests who have something worth saying, whether it’s about the coronavirus, protests, the election, wildfires, or any of the other stressful issues we’re dealing with right now.
The voters can’t really go wrong in this category, but I think it should be Noah’s year. — SH