The Falcons have a hell of a decision to make on draft day

Plus, an NFL-style Midnight Madness?

Atlanta has not recovered from its 28-3ing.

The Falcons made it back to the postseason 11 months after collapsing mightily in Super Bowl 51, but their record since 2018 is 18-30 with zero winning seasons. Atlanta wallowed for two years in NFL purgatory, finishing in the middle of the pack where it wasn’t a contender and wasn’t bad enough to earn a franchise-changing top 10 draft pick. It wasn’t until last year’s bottoming-out — which cost head coach Dan Quinn his job — that the path to a rebuild cleared through the brush.

The Falcons’ route out from mediocrity starts on Day 1 of the 2021 NFL Draft when they make the fourth overall selection. While last year’s 4-12 campaign wasn’t enough for Atlanta to elbow its way into the heart of a rookie quarterback derby, it gave way to the selection that will define how the rest of this year’s draft unfolds. Will the club’s brain trust give new head coach Arthur Smith the impact player capable of stopping a three-year slide? Or will Atlanta’s Falcon-ing continue unabated into a new era with a solid prospect incapable of pushing the team to new heights?

There are five primary routes the Falcons can take when their name is called at No. 4 overall.

Option 1: Take Penei Sewell and secure a franchise left tackle

Sewell sat out 2020 thanks to COVID-19, but the Oregon blindside protector was 2019’s Outland Trophy winner as the NCAA’s top lineman (offensive or defensive), joining luminaries like Brandon Scherff, Joe Thomas and, uh, Luke Joeckel. He’s widely considered the kind of prospect who can hold down a team’s left tackle spot for a decade-plus, which would be vital in a league where elite bookends rarely make it to free agency.

Burning a Day 1 pick on an offensive lineman would be in line with the team’s priorities throughout the past decade. Atlanta has spent a first-rounder on a blocker three times in the past seven drafts, including twice in 2019. That’s kept the Falcons in good shape at tackle between 2014 pick Jake Matthews (still going strong at 29 years old) and 2019 selection Kaleb McGary (who is a work in progress — his blown block rate the past two seasons is nearly double Matthews’). Sewell would allow one of those guys to kick inside while providing insurance in case Matthews’ play begins to decline or McGary fails to live up to his draft bonafides.

Drafting Sewell sends a message that the Falcons think coaching was the team’s fatal flaw rather than the roster itself. Sewell would join a high-octane passing game and clear space for a running back rotation that will feature new signee Mike Davis. It wouldn’t be a sexy pick. It wouldn’t address a position of need. But it would turn a solid position into one of the league’s best. Just like our next route ...

Option 2: Punch up an already stacked passing game with an elite pass catcher

2021, like 2020 before it, is loaded with receiving talent. But unlike last year, we’re not going to have to wait until the 12th pick to see a wideout selected — we’ll probably have four different targets off the board by then.

Atlanta will have its pick of dynamic playmakers with the fourth overall pick. Smith can add reigning Heisman winner DeVonta Smith to his lineup or opt for his Alabama teammate Jaylen Waddle to make the top three members of his WR depth chart an all Crimson Tide affair. He could target LSU’s JaMarr Chase and roster the guy who shunted Justin Jefferson to WR2 (... well, WR1b, kinda) duties in college. Or he could unlock a wide array of two tight end sets by pairing Kyle Pitts with Hayden Hurst, giving the Falcons a dynamic move tight end to go along with the more traditional in-line TE they already have.

Any would be a boost for Matt Ryan, who will turn 36 before next season begins. That’s what we used to consider old for an NFL quarterback, but that scale’s been warped and dinged throughout the past decade. There’s still room for a Ryan revival, especially after a season in which he led the league in completions and averaged nearly 290 passing yards per game. Bringing in Smith or Waddle or Chase or Pitts would be a booster rocket to an already capable craft.

Smith utilized young wideout talent to brilliant returns before. His rise as a coordinator with Tennessee was predicated on unlocking Ryan Tannehill’s potential after the Dolphins had given up on him. The playmaking talent of A.J. Brown in 2019 and 2020 played a massive role in that. A first-round WR would give Smith another star to play that part — only with even bigger upside.

The Falcons haven’t shied away from drafting first-round receivers in the past, trading up for Julio Jones and adding Calvin Ridley in 2018. Those guys are great ... and they’re still around. Bringing a player like Pitts into the mix would give Atlanta arguably the most dangerous receiving corps in the NFL. But they’re already pretty damn good, so it’s tough to see just how much better the team would get with another game-breaking target in the mix. Receivers only bring so much value, which means they may be better served settling for ...

Option 3: Take the fourth-best quarterback and sit him behind Matt Ryan for a year

This isn’t a terrible draft to take the fourth-best passing prospect. The Falcons could luck into Justin Fields if the 49ers make a truly galaxy-brained decision and select Mac Jones at No. 3. Even if they don’t, a high-upside prospect like North Dakota State’s Trey Lance could be the choice — and it could be a perfect fit for Atlanta.

Lance, Jones, or even Fields could spend 2021 learning the ropes under Ryan as the Falcons bolster themselves for the future. While it’s not typical to see franchise QBs play understudy their first year in the pros, it’s not unheard of. Kansas City took the second passer of the 2017 draft and sat him a year behind Alex Smith, which worked out pretty well for Patrick Mahomes. The Packers followed a similar, if longer, route with Aaron Rodgers. In either case, quarterbacks with special arm talent had enough time to develop on their own while their franchises grew around them.

I’m not sold on this working with Jones, but a year on the practice field could help Atlanta understand whether his breakthrough 2020 was sustainable without costing them games. Fields and Lance could each refine their upper-tier talent without the pressure of leading a franchise from Day 1. Plus, the Falcons get a high-value insurance policy in the unlikely event Ryan gets injured (he’s started 205 of 208 games since being drafted in 2008). 

It’s not a move that would have much of an impact in 2021, but it could set the tone for the franchise in the near future. 

Option 4: Trade up for Zach Wilson

Atlanta’s position at No. 4 gives the Falcons unique leverage if the Jets decide to roll with Sam Darnold and trade back from the second overall pick. They could trump any offers needy teams like the Panthers and Broncos could send to New York, and might even be able to move up without sacrificing a future first-round selection. Would the upgrade from Fields/Lance/Jones to Zach Wilson be worth giving up several Day 2 picks? Given the swollen numbers at the top of Atlanta’s 2022 cap sheet, eschewing affordable young help may weigh heavily on the minds of the team’s decision makers when it comes to moving up in the draft. 

Option 5?: Trade back, acquire low-cost assets, and rebuild the defense

All of these moves fail to address Atlanta’s biggest problem; upgrading a defense that hasn’t ranked in the top 10 of Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric since 2012. The 2021 draft isn’t loaded with headlining defensive talent, but there are plenty of difference-makers who’ll be available from the middle of the first round and beyond.

Atlanta could trade back into the teens and land a project edge rusher like Rhode Island high school legend Kwity Paye or Gregory Rousseau, all while picking up a 2022 first and some 2021 help. With No. 35 already on their ledger and another top 50 pick arriving via trade, the Falcons could either move up to make a second first-round pick or feast on the good-not-great tier of help that could bring linebackers and defensive backs capable of starting right away. Just as importantly, they’d be under cheap rookie contracts — which means expensive deals for players like Ryan, Jones, and Grady Jarrett could stay on the books alongside a well-deserved extension for Ridley.

This would keep the passing game in Ryan’s hands, but we’ve seen what Smith is capable of doing with undervalued veteran quarterbacks before. The Falcons remain a great, if aging, offense on paper. A trade back would give them the opportunity to create a defense that looks nearly as good … at least when it comes to the depth chart. — CD

Training campalooza 

Other than the occasional fight or a reporter tweeting out video of an egregiously Bortles throw, training camp might be the dullest official event on the NFL calendar. The NFL is also a shamelessly money-grubbing organization, which is why it’s not a surprise that the league may have found a way to monetize it. According to Peter King:

“The NFL is thinking seriously of a “Midnight Madness” sort of opening to the training-camp season, with 28 teams opening on the same date and with some fanfare accompanying it.” 

And … I might love that idea? Yes, it’s totally ridiculous, but in a way that’s both true to the NFL and its fanbase.

Once the draft ends, the NFL’s “offseason” begins and lasts until training camp starts up in late July. Sure, you’ve got OTAs and minicamps, but that time is a dearth of any meaningful football content.

So why not go all out for our first real taste of football in months? Let the fans compete in on-field challenges like the Dr. Pepper halftime throw (except instead of tuition, fans can win, like, an autographed jersey — much simpler and doesn’t serve as a reminder of the broken parts of our society). Bring in a little entertainment (probably local musicians, frisbee-playing dogs, or a fourth-place finisher from The Voice; this is still training camp). End the night with the team facing off in a game of dodgeball (the highlight of any recent Pro Bowl).

It’d be even better if some teams actually started camp at midnight, to space things out and to give us night owls the thrill of 2 a.m. live sports. (Late-night sports are the best, whether it’s a down-to-the-wire Hawaii football game, a 15-inning MLB game, or a rhythmic gymnastics routine at the Olympics. You can always take a nap the next day!)

Chances are that most of us will tune in for about five minutes of the NFL Network’s training camp extravaganza until we decide we’d rather be doing literally anything else. But just like preseason, the point isn’t that it’s watchable. The point is that football is (sorta) back, and that’s something to celebrate. — SH