The Jets may wind up the biggest winner of the Dolphins-49ers trade
And Laremy Tunsil is the GOAT of all draft picks.
The biggest deal of the 2021 NFL Draft may have already happened. The Jets hope that's not the case.
Miami traded the third overall pick — originally acquired from the Texans in the Laremy Tunsil deal — to San Francisco in exchange for the 49ers first-round picks in 2021, 2022, and 2023 as well as a 2022 third-rounder. It was a massive swap that set the exchange rate for premium picks in April's draft.
The trade was great for the 49ers, who put themselves in position to add a franchise quarterback to replace the low-impact passing of Jimmy Garoppolo. It was great for the Dolphins, who effectively got a franchise quarterback trade haul for a draft spot in which they had no interest in drafting a quarterback.
And it was great for the New York's AFC franchise, as long as they don't blow it.
The Jets, free from the breathtaking incompetence of the Adam Gase era, enter 2021 with the second overall pick in the NFL Draft. That disqualifies them from the Trevor Lawrence sweepstakes. It opens them up to what could be the most lucrative trade-down in league history.
Miami got the kind of trade haul typically reserved for a franchise quarterback; a three first-round pick package we’ve heard tied to players like Deshaun Watson and Russell Wilson this spring. And that was for the third-best QB in this year’s draft! The player pegged as the second-best guy, BYU’s Zach Wilson, just pushed his stock even higher with a pro day performance that paints him as a prototypical 2020s franchise quarterback.
Wilson could be the quarterback for whom the Jets have been waiting. But if he’s not, his value at the top of the draft means a Dolphins-esque trade down the draft board could bring everything the Jets need to overhaul one of the league’s worst rosters.
What kind of offers can New York expect — and where might the Jets end up?
History suggests there's a chance New York could fall back from No. 2, remain in the top 10 of this year's first round, and still come away with a historic haul. The 49ers convinced the Bears to trade up from No. 3 to No. 2 in 2017 in order to select Mitchell Trubisky as that year's top QB (ahead of Patrick Mahomes and Deshaun Watson. Be sure to mention this to any/all Bears fans you know, they love it). One year later, the Jets jumped from the sixth overall pick to No. 3 in order to draft Sam Darnold.
The cost of selecting two quarterbacks who were generally less highly regarded than Zach Wilson was steeeeeeep. The Bears sent two thirds and a fourth-round selection just to force San Francisco one spot backward and prevent the Niners from trading their pick to anyone else. New York coaxed the third selection from a Colts team that didn’t need a QB for No. 6 and three second-round picks that all fell inside the top 50.
This was before John Lynch shattered the draft pick trade value chart for a shot at Justin Fields/Trey Lance (in Jimmy Johnson’s old trade value model, the Dolphins sent out 2,200 points worth of pick value while hauling in an estimated 2,750 points — the approximate value of the 35th overall selection. Using a newer model derived from Bill Belichick’s dealings, the Dolphins sent out 514 points and brought in roughly 860 — an estimated surplus value equal to the 14th overall pick assuming the Niners are a playoff team the next two seasons. Either way, this was a HAUL for Miami). If the Jets are really sold on Darnold as their future like they told wideout Corey Davis before signing him — and maybe if they aren't — there's a chance it could pull in a Deshaun Watson-sized trade haul for a player they don't even want and *still* get the player it targeted atop first-year head coach Robert Saleh’s draft board.
Using Belichick’s trade value model — as parsed by our old friend Rich Hill from Pats Pulpit — and the recent standard set by the Dolphins’ overpay, realistic trade offers for Jets GM Joe Douglas could look like this:
Falcons send: No. 4 overall pick (491 point value in Belichick chart), No. 35 overall pick (170), 2022 second-round pick (estimated 140-170 points), 2022 third-round pick (estimated 60-70 points)
Jets send: No. 2 overall pick (717), 2022 fourth-round pick (estimated 25-30 points)
In this deal, New York would trade away its top pick but create something like 160 points of surplus value — the equivalent of the 38th overall selection. The haul here isn’t as eye-popping as the Miami deal since the Jets wouldn’t be trading back too far, but Douglas would still get more out of this deal than the Eagles did in trading back from No. 6 to No. 12 last week. It’s not ideal for the Falcons, who might really, really like Trey Lance or Mac Jones at this point, but it gets them the draft’s best non-Lawrence QB without costing them a future first-rounder. Would it be enough given the recent premium put on this year’s crop of passers?
Panthers send: No. 8 overall pick (406), No. 39 overall pick (153), 2022 first-round pick (estimated 300-370 points), 2022 second-round pick (estimated 110-140 points)
Jets send: No. 2 overall pick (717), No. 154 pick (12)
This gets us back to where the Dolphins landed, value-wise, by dealing away the third pick. The excess value the Jets gain from this trade averages out somewhere around the 18th overall pick. Or, if New York is so inclined, it could scrap that 2022 first and swap in pass rusher Brian Burns, who’d bring an immediate upgrade to Saleh’s defense. Burns is a rising star on a rookie contract, but he was reportedly part of Carolina’s trade pitch for Deshaun Watson. He’d make sense in green and white, even if a move down to eighth overall would present a dramatic change to the Jets’ draft board.
The question is whether the Panthers would make such a dramatic move when there’s a reasonable chance a top five quarterback will be around when they make their regularly scheduled pick. Then again, the Bears gave up three picks just to make sure they could get Mitchell Trubisky at No. 2 instead of No. 3 atop a loaded draft. Passers are hot right now. Standing pat may not be an option in a seller’s market.
Broncos send: No. 9 overall pick (387), No. 40 overall pick (149), 2022 first-round pick (estimated 230-305 points, because the Broncos with a decent quarterback have a higher ceiling than the Panthers right now), 2023 first-round pick (estimated 230-305 points)
Jets send: No. 2 overall pick (717), No. 107 overall pick (34), 2022 fourth-round pick (estimated 30 points)
John Elway’s team looks like it’s a quarterback away from contending (for a wild card spot. Not the AFC West. Yet.). This is another San Francisco-style Godfather deal that would send three first-rounders to an AFC East team in exchange for a top three pick. But since the Jets are auctioning off the chance to jump the line and snaffle the Niners for a shot at Wilson, it’ll cost a little more than John Lynch shipped. Namely, an extra second-rounder this year. The downside is that the quality of the future firsts New York receives would take a hit with every un-botched Broncos drive, but still … this is a *lot* of draft value — a surplus roughly equal to the 14th overall pick in any given year.
Fine, let’s say the Jets trade back. What then?
The Jets could trade back and still target a quarterback, but they'd be looking at the scraps following a top-five feeding frenzy. The 49ers didn't give up a king's ransom to move up to No. 3 just to pick up a right tackle for Jimmy Garoppolo. Anyone outspending San Francisco for the second overall pick will be in the same boat. Moving back two spots would mean a nice haul of extra selections, but also a likely downgrade from Zach Wilson to either Trey Lance or Mac Jones. This seems unlikely.
Instead New York would likely work to rectify the mistakes that doomed the first three years of the Darnold era. From 2018 to 2020 the club handed out more than $100 million in contracts to bring blockers like Spencer Long, Greg Van Roten, George Fant, and Connor McGovern to town. Despite that, Darnold was still sacked on nearly nine percent of his dropbacks last year as the team’s front five ranked 29th in PFF’s offensive line rankings.
The only blocker who truly stood out in a good way was 2020 rookie Mekhi Becton. General manager Joe Douglas will have a chance to follow that blueprint again this spring. Oregon tackle Penei Sewell is the crown jewel of this year’s blocking class, even after sitting out last season due to COVID-19 concerns. He could be available even after a modest trade back thanks to the depth of QB and WR talent in this year’s draft. If not, Northwestern’s Rashawn Slater is a versatile monster who can fill several different slots on the line. Either would be a valued building block across from Becton at left tackle.
The extra picks could also punch up a defense that was merely “below average” compared to the raging shitstorm that was the New York offense. The newly re-signed Marcus Maye, a rising Quinnen Williams, and the returning C.J. Mosley — he’s played two games for the Jets since signing an $85 million contract in 2019 — will give Robert Saleh star power at all three levels.
There isn’t a ton of high level defensive talent at the top of the first round, but there’s plenty to be found later. This year’s draft features a handful of solid cornerbacks who’ll be available should New York trade back. Anyone from the Caleb Farley, Jaycee Horn, Patrick Surtain trio would make a good counterbalance to improving young starter Blessuan Austin. Kwity Paye or Gregory Rousseau would be inexpensive edge rushers for a unit that ranked sixth in blitz rate last fall but 25th in pressure created. A linebacker like Micah Parsons would be great insurance if Mosley continues his tradition of not working out as expected.
It’s not an either/or situation, either! The Jamal Adams trade gave the Jets Seattle’s 23rd overall pick this year and a future first in 2022. A trade back could give New York a top 10 pick, then three more selections in the top 40. That’s the kind of haul that could alter the fate of a franchise. Even one as historically cursed as the Jets.
There’s no guarantee this would work out, but it would help turn a potential misplaced sniper rifle bullet into a shotgun blast of talent for a team in desperate need of it. There’s a world in which Douglas and Saleh come away from the draft with Sewell, Parsons, Paye, and Horn … it’s just not the same world in which Zach Wilson is a Jet.
The Dolphins set the stage for a grand overpay leading up to the No. 2 pick this spring. The question now is whether New York should go for it.
Counterpoint: Sam Darnold sucks and the Jets should just take Zach Wilson if they think he’s that valuable.
Hey, yeah ... probably. But listen, we’re already at 1,900 words in this newsletter. Let’s talk about that completely viable and possibly correct strategy another time. — CD
Laremy Tunsil, a draft pick GOAT
In a more just world, Laremy Tunsil never would have been drafted by the Dolphins in the first place. Right before the 2016 NFL Draft began, Tunsil was hacked and a video of him wearing a gas mask and smoking from a bong was posted to his Twitter account. That led to him dropping out of the top 10 and falling into the Dolphins’ lap with the No. 13 pick.
In three seasons in Miami, Tunsil played in 44 games, first at left guard and then at left tackle. He had a respectable start to his career, though he was not exactly a franchise-altering player.
That changed as soon as the Dolphins traded Tunsil to the Texans heading into the 2019 season. We knew the Dolphins hit the jackpot immediately, thanks to a package that included two first-round picks and a second-round pick. And they’re still reaping the rewards that came from the Tunsil trade — and from drafting him in the first place.
Originally the Dolphins’ future draft picks in the trade were:
2020 first-round pick
2021 first-round pick
2021 second-round pick
They then turned that into:
2020 first-round pick
2020 fourth-round pick
2021 first-round pick
2021 second-round pick
2022 first-round pick
2022 third-round pick
2023 first-round pick
And now, after their trade with the Eagles, they have:
Cornerback Noah Igbinoghene (drafted No. 30 in 2020, after a trade with the Packers)
Starting right guard Solomon Kindley (drafted, after a couple of trades, with a fourth-round pick they received from the Packers)
2021 first-round pick (No. 6 overall)
2021 second-round pick (No. 36 overall)
2022 third-round pick
2023 first-round pick
It’s a good bet that the Dolphins aren’t done, either, and the Tunsil pick will continue to be the gift that keeps on giving over the next couple of years.
Thankfully, things have worked out for Tunsil, too. He’s been a Pro Bowl left tackle in both of his seasons in Houston so far, and his record-setting contract has more than made up for the millions his hacker cost him five years ago.
It all makes for a fascinating “what if” scenario. What if someone hadn’t tried to sabotage Tunsil’s draft night, or what if the other teams drafting ahead of the Dolphins weren’t scared off by a kid smoking pot when he was in college? Luckily for the Dolphins, we’ll never know for sure. — SH