Take the Jets' broken wings and learn to fly again
Here's how to fix a broken franchise. Also, we're ranking the 11 teams vying for the final playoff spots, and diving deep into a study that clearly shows Raiders fans make for dangerous drivers.
Where do the Jets go from here?
The No. 1 pick is officially lost. How else do you fix a broken franchise?
Trevor Lawrence, barring the kind of stupid decision that dominates talk radio for weeks, will not be a New York Jet. This is extremely bad news for a franchise whose high-water mark for quarterback play this millennium clocks in somewhere around “Chad Pennington.”
New York’s cleanest path to a rebuild was ripped from its grasp thanks to a stunning display of competence that turned an 0-13 punchline into a 2-13 dream smasher. Now the Jets are forced to search out alternate routes to their first postseason appearance since Rex Ryan was head coach.
On Monday we looked at what comes next for the Jaguars now that they’ve got the No. 1 pick locked down. So what lies for the Jets now that they don’t? Let’s start with the most obvious step:
Fire Adam Gase
Preferably out of a cannon and into the sun. Gase’s past four years as a head coach haven’t even painted him as an NFL-caliber coordinator. He’s due for a massive demotion. While he hasn’t coached in the NCAA since 2002, that seems like the most likely place for him to rebuild his value.
Also, this is his official unofficial Wikipedia photo:
Gah.
Keep Sam Darnold
Darnold may not be the franchise quarterback the Jets traded away a king’s ransom for the right to select in 2018. Or he might be, and we just have no idea what his NFL baseline actually is because he’s spent the last two seasons playing for human wet rag Gase. Gase’s dampening effect has been showcased multiple times through the recent resurgences of former Dolphins and Jets like Kenyan Drake, DeVante Parker, and Robby Anderson. The last two seasons of Ryan Tannehill alone should give New York hope that competent guidance is all Darnold needs to reach his potential.
Even if Darnold isn’t the future, there’s little logic in trading him. His value has never been lower as he stumbles through a lost season with a broken team. Keeping him for 2021 will only cost $9.7m against the salary cap, which ranks 21st among quarterbacks next year. If the team picks up the 2022 option on his rookie contract, it will only be guaranteed in case of injury. If the club decides it doesn’t want him, he’d still leave $9.6m behind as dead cap space by moving on. There’s no real harm in keeping him over the offseason and orchestrating a deal before next fall’s trade deadline or letting him walk as a free agent if he underwhelms.
The question is whether the young quarterback can bask in the warming glow of a non-Gase offense. He’s never been a particularly accurate or efficient deep ball passer and has completed just 37 of his 139 throws of 20+ yards as a pro (26.6 percent). That — and a lack of downfield talent — has forced him into a playbook of short routes and checkdown plays, but those have gone poorly as well. 61 percent of his passes travel fewer than 10 yards from the line of scrimmage, but his completion rate is only 58.8 percent, third worst among 2020 starting QBs.
When things have gone well for the Jets, it hasn’t been like their young quarterback has been slinging them to victory. Here’s a compilation of every completion he had in his win over the Rams. If you took a shot each time he hit a guy no more than four yards, you’d be dead of alcohol poisoning before halftime.
Even when he makes good decisions downfield, he struggles to put the ball in a place where his targets can thrive after the catch. These were back-to-back completions that gained first downs (good!) but also left ~10 yards on the table because Darnold couldn’t hit his guy in stride (bad!)
Any moderate progress between years one and two in the NFL have been erased in year three, but the past two weeks have been a dull shine to Darnold’s tarnished silver. He still isn’t a great decision maker, though his creativity under pressure has created some big plays. He moves well for a pocket passer and keeps his eyes downfield to turn broken plays into first downs. He’s not afraid to absolutely ruin someone’s day by running right the hell over them:
The 2021 coaching cycle is rife with candidates capable of maximizing that playmaking ability and engineering a turnaround similar to what Kevin Stefanski has done with Baker Mayfield in Cleveland (faint praise, maybe, but a useful example). Buffalo offensive coordinator Brian Daboll turned class of 2018 draftmate Josh Allen from potential bust to top 10 quarterback and could have a similarly uplifting effect in northern New Jersey. Titans OC Arthur Smith has experience rehabbing a Gase reclamation project. Chiefs play caller Eric Bieniemy could stare the downgrade from Patrick Mahomes to Darnold in the face and decide he’s ready for a challenge.
2021 is effectively a house money year with a young quarterback. No one is expecting a playoff run, and if it doesn’t work out both sides can move on. Which is good, because New York is in prime position to draft his successor … even if it isn’t Trevor Lawrence.
Tear through the 2021 draft looking for offensive help
The Jets are locked into the No. 2 pick in next spring’s draft, which gives them a wide range of options who didn’t play quarterback at Clemson. There’s still a ways to go and hundreds of workouts to be staged before New York is on the clock, but early returns suggest they’ll be picking between Ohio State’s Justin Fields, BYU’s Zach Wilson, and North Dakota State’s Trey Lance. Apropos of nothing, each has a distressing data point from their alma maters currently in the NFL in Dwayne Haskins (OSU), Taysom Hill (BYU), and Carson Wentz (NDSU). Does this mean anything? Probably not! But it’s a reminder of how college success doesn’t equal pro success and how this is all kinda a crapshoot.
My early preference at No. 2 would be Wilson, who makes big league throws albeit against underwhelming competition. The Jets could also trade back, pick up some extra draft selections, and settle for someone like Lance or a rising Mac Jones a few selections later. That may disqualify them from a more-hyped prospect, but it would also create extra assets for a team in severe need of young talent.
Darnold and Unnamed Young Jets Quarterback will need playmakers to help them thrive. Fortunately, there’s plenty of inexpensive targets ready to take on a rebuilding effort. 2020 second-rounder Denzel Mims was a good start, though he’s only been able to show occasional flashes of capability thanks to his place in a Gase offense.
Next year’s draft may have better WR options than the one that recently dropped Justin Jefferson, Chase Claypool, Tee Higgins, and Darnell by-god Mooney into our NFL lives. Thanks to the Jamal Adams trade, New York currently has two first-round picks and five selections in the first three rounds. This opens up a world of possibility where Darnold or Wilson or Lance throw passes to Jaylen Waddle or Rondale Moore or JaMarr Chase. That’s exciting, especially for a team that’s been mostly unwatchable the past two years.
Tight end will also be a priority, as the Jets haven’t fielded an above-average TE since … uh, Dustin Keller in 2011, I guess? That draft capital could go toward Kyle Pitts or Pat Freiermuth in the first round and allow the team to pick up a wideout in the second. Or the club could use its estimated $81 million in salary cap space to throw big contracts at pending free agents like Hunter Henry or Jonnu Smith.
A healthy crop of veteran wideouts will be similarly tempting on the open market, but I’m not as certain that makes sense with a decent lineup — Jamison Crowder, Mims, and maybe Braxton Berrios — already in place and much cheaper help available from the collegiate ranks. New York would be well served to wait out free agency and see if someone like Sammy Watkins or A.J. Green languishes long enough to drop their asking price. That said, if the Jets make a run at Allen Robinson and doom him to five more years of playing with unproven quarterbacks, I’m gonna die laughing.
And, yeah, they need a running back too. As much as I would love to see World’s Greatest Grandpa Frank Gore mushing opponents’ playoff hopes in New York in 2021 and beyond, it’s clear he needs to sign with the Patriots to finish off his tour of the AFC East. A mid-draft selection and some bargain pickups from a market slated to include role players like Matt Breida, Mike Davis, and Gus Edwards should plug that hole.
Add veteran and rookie talent to a defense that’s primed for improvement
The good news for the Jets is they have foundational pieces at every level of the defense. Quinnen Williams is a space-eating, pass-rushing wrecking ball in the middle of the defensive line. Marcus Maye held down secondary duties both before and after the team traded away Jamal Adams and should be a priority offseason re-signing for the team. C.J. Mosley, if he can return to his Ravens form after playing only two games with the Jets, is a perennial Pro Bowl inside linebacker.
There are some interesting young players around them, even if the sum of those parts has added up to the league’s 27th-ranked scoring defense. Blessuan Austin has outperformed expectations as a 2019 sixth-round pick and looks like a solid starting cornerback. Rams castoff DE John Franklin-Myers ranks third among Jets defenders with 14 QB hits despite playing only 44 percent of his team’s defensive snaps. Rookie Ashtyn Davis struggled at safety next to Maye at times, but has potential as a versatile centerfielder who brings solid tackling when pressed to the line of scrimmage.
That leaves a lot of holes for a team with decent depth but a need for established starters and higher-ceiling prospects to allow these young players to grow behind them. That’s where the aforementioned $81 million in cap space comes in.
A recent history of pursuing Ravens linebackers (Mosley, 2020 signee Patrick Onwuasor) could lead them to Matthew Judon. Bud Dupree, Yannick Ngakoue, or Shaquil Barrett could be similarly impactful for a pass rush that has only generated 28 sacks in 15 games so far. A draft class loaded with cornerback talent could beef up an aerial defense that’s allowed opposing quarterbacks to post a 101.3 passer rating against it. There are plenty of available routes to improve this group, and it may not take much to make them playoff caliber.
The Jets defense is better than its numbers suggest. Since firing defensive coordinator Gregg Williams, that unit has gone from giving up 5.8 yards per play to a much more reasonable 5.1. They’ve allowed right around 300 yards per game in a two-game winning streak after giving up just under 400 each week in the 13 losses that preceded it. Football Outsiders’ efficiency-based metric ranks this group, playing for nothing but the shreds of pride afforded them under Gase, clocks them as a top 20 team. There’s hope here!
That’s something we haven’t said much about the Jets, and when we did it was typically Lawrence-related. That’s gone now, but that two-week winning streak has replaced the Clemson QB with some small consolation reasons for optimism. While New York is still very, very flawed, a competent front office and the right coach can patch over those cracks the same way Miami did after relieving Gase of his duties.
Hoping for Jets management to do the right thing may be a lost coin in a mall fountain, but hell, it’s something. — CD
Ranking the 11 teams competing for the final playoff spots
There’s a lot of uncertainty as we head into the final (already?!) week of the regular season. Eleven playoff hopefuls are vying for seven spots, and lineups are in flux, due to injury, Covid protocols, and the usual Week 17 rest for those teams that have locked up a postseason bid. I’m honestly not sure what to expect on Sunday, but here’s how I’d rank my belief in those 11 teams, as of right now (and no, I don’t have much confidence in the NFC side of things):
1. Ravens
Why they’ll make the playoffs: The red-hot Ravens just need to beat the Bengals again to secure a wild card spot. They can also get in if the Browns or Colts lose.
What gives me pause: Uh, the Bengals are on a winning streak for the first time all season?
2. Titans
Why they’ll make the playoffs: The Titans can make it back to the playoffs with a win over the 4-11 Texans, or if the Ravens, Colts, or Dolphins stumble.
What gives me pause: They probably should have lost to the Texans earlier this season, so it’s not a gimme win, and only the Dolphins face a difficult opponent this weekend.
3. Colts
Why they’ll make the playoffs: The Colts are in with a win over the worst team in the NFL (the Jaguars), plus a loss by either the Titans, Ravens, Dolphins, or Browns.
What gives me pause: They don’t control their own destiny AND the Colts are still the only team to lose to the Jaguars all season.
4. Dolphins
Why they’ll make the playoffs: The pesky Dolphins will land a playoff berth if they can beat the Bills, who could be resting some key players, or if the Ravens, Browns, or Colts come up short.
What gives me pause: If the Bills play their starters, then the Dolphins are in for a much tougher challenge in Buffalo Sunday, especially with their fluctuating Fitzmagic-Tua quarterback situation.
5. Browns
Why they’ll make the playoffs: The Browns will end the NFL’s longest active playoff drought if they can topple the Steelers in Cleveland or if the Colts drop another one to the Jaguars. Mason Rudolph, the only Steelers quarterback to lose to the Browns in the last five years, will get the start over a resting Ben Roethlisberger (so many narratives!). The Browns should have almost everyone back who went on the COVID-19 reserve list right before their upset loss to the Jets.
What gives me pause: Y’know, just50+ years of history.
6. Rams
Why they’ll make the playoffs: After a one-year absence, the Rams will return to the postseason if they can complete the season sweep over the Cardinals. Even if they don’t, they’re in if the Bears fall to the Packers. Starting quarterback Jared Goff will be out, but John Wolford could take the Arizona defense by surprise with the way he moves.
What gives me pause: The Rams are spiraling a bit and could also be without leading receiver Cooper Kupp.
7. Cardinals
Why they’ll make the playoffs: Kliff Kingsbury will make his postseason coaching debut if the Cardinals defeat the Rams, who will be led by a quarterback who has never taken a snap in the NFL.
What gives me pause: Well, we still don’t know how healthy Kyler Murray is, let alone if he will even play. Plus, the Cardinals *did* just lay an egg against 49ers third-string quarterback C.J. Beathard.
8. Bears
Why they’ll make the playoffs: They’ll be playing on Wild Card Weekend if they beat the Packers or if the Cardinals lose to the Rams. And the Bears are feeling it right now. For the first time in 55 years, they’ve scored 30+ points in four straight games.
What gives me pause: The Packers will be looking to clinch the No. 1 seed in the NFC so they’re probably not resting anyone. They also have MVP frontrunner Aaron Rodgers. The Bears have Mitchell Trubisky, who has a 1-5 record against Green Bay in his career.
9. Cowboys
Why they’ll make the playoffs: Right now, no team in the NFC East is playing better than the Cowboys, which sounds like faint praise … and kinda is. Still, the Cowboys are in a groove and can claim the division title if they top the Giants again and if the Eagles get a primetime win over Washington; neither outcome is a long shot.
What gives me pause: Dallas’ current winning streak happened against three teams that are all in last place in their respective divisions (Bengals, 49ers, Eagles). Even if they finish off the Giants, the Cowboys’ playoff fate will be out of their hands — and Washington’s defense will always give it a good chance to win.
10. Washington
Why they’ll make the playoffs: See above: Defense. The WFT has the second-best defense, per Football Outsiders’ DVOA rankings, and falls in the top five in most major statistical categories. The defensive line could make it a long night for rookie quarterback Jalen Hurts and the Eagles’ beleaguered offensive line.
What gives me pause: I haven’t mentioned the offense yet, which is not an oversight. Can it score enough points to nab its first NFC East championship in five years? It might depend on if Terry McLaurin is back in the lineup, and if Alex Smith is healthy enough:
11. Giants
Why they’ll make the playoffs: Just a month ago, the Giants sported a four-game winning streak after knocking off the Seahawks. Wayne Gallman rushed for a season-high 135 yards in that game, and next up he’ll face the league’s worst run defense.
What gives me pause: Since that upset in Seattle, the Giants are winless, have scored 26 combined points, and Gallman has totaled just 113 yards on the ground. Do you trust OC Jason Garrett to rouse his unit awake against his former team AND for Washington to lose? Yeah, me neither. — SH
Study: Raiders fans are shitty drivers
If you walk, run, or ride a bicycle around whatever town or city you live in, at some point, you will have some near misses, or worse, with a car. It’s happened to me no fewer than three times this year alone. In one instance, a Subaru Forester failed to stop at a stop sign on a side street as I ran past. Naturally, it had a “Life Is Good” sticker on the back window.
The other two incidents both involved another specific type of vehicle, a Dodge Ram truck. In the scariest case, the guy barreled through a red light while I had the crosswalk sign urging me to move. So, I was not at all surprised to see that Ram drivers have the most DUIs, 1 in 22 have been cited according to a study.
So what does this have to do with the NFL? Well, in both of my run-ins with a Ram truck, each vehicle was adorned with a Raiders license plate holder and an assortment of stickers and magnets.
That’s not an unusual occurrence for Ram trucks. I’ve spent the last 14 years or so living in Missouri and more recently New Mexico, and in both places Ram trucks are almost universally decorated with Raiders paraphernalia. If 1 in 22 Ram 2500 drivers have been cited with a DUI, then, by my own non-scientific extrapolation, you’ll find a silver and black sticker of some kind on approximately 1 in 10 of those pick ‘em ups.
Prior to this extremely haphazard set of observations I’ve decided to label (opinion) research, I would have assumed Bills fans, or at least people with that team’s crap pasted on their tailgate and rear window, to be the country’s most dangerous drivers—outside of Karens on a cell phone in Lexus SUVs. And maybe we’ll find them to be if we dig into the per capita numbers, but there’s something about the Raiders, a team that hasn’t been in the Super Bowl conversation in roughly two decades, that has a universal appeal to anyone operating a would-be death machine.
The Cowboys also have a pretty wide appeal. Some of that can be explained by the team’s occasional ability to have a good season. But when it comes to the puttering F150s and Dodge Durangos decorated with the ubiquitous blue star, there is nothing to be afraid of. In fact, those people probably demand some of your pity, a neighborly gesture to recognize that they need to experience, even briefly, someone to shine a ray of sunshine into an otherwise dreary existence.
This is by no means a complete (or real) survey of the issue. For example, we need further study of what draws Raiders fans to Ram trucks, or vice versa. And is there a more aggressive tendency inherent in committing oneself to a team so thoroughly invested in touting its own unique principles despite the long track record of failure demonstrated in the team’s commitment to a dated, doomed ethos?
For now, we know that where there are Ram trucks there are Raiders fans giving the middle finger to sensible traffic laws, and from there we can safely determine which streets and intersections to avoid.
Stay safe, friends! —RVB