The good, bad, and ugly of the NFL’s first-ever 17-game schedule reveal
There's some appointment viewing on tap
The NFL schedule release turned into an all-day affair on Wednesday, because the league, like a Tik Toker who shares their cooking “hacks” by throwing random food products on their counter and mashing them together with their hands, will do anything for attention.
The Week 1 matchups were announced early in the day, while others were leaked throughout the afternoon until the entire slate was unveiled during a three-hour show on NFL Network that evening. Why was it three full hours long? Who knows, we didn’t watch.
This season marks a new beginning, one in which the NFL is switching to an 18-week schedule and every team has its bye somewhere between Weeks 6 and 14. Though the 2021 regular season doesn’t kick off for nearly four more months, the official schedule gives us something new to talk about this week and we’re not going to complain about that.
Let’s dive in.
Which rookie quarterback has the roughest stretch of games to deal with in Year 1?
Christian D’Andrea: Poor Justin Fields has to start his career against Aaron Donald and Jalen Ramsey (maybe let Andy Dalton take that one, Bears), but that isn’t as bad as it gets for Chicago’s prized new passer. From Week 7 to Week 11, he’ll have to face the defending Super Bowl champions and their rising young secondary, a 49ers defense that ranked second in DVOA in 2019 before injuries devastated it all the way down to … sixth last season, the Steelers (No. 1 in DVOA in 2020) and, after a bye week, the always dangerous Ravens.
This could be devastating to Bears fans. Or it could be the launching point for Fields’ career. But probably the first one.
Sarah Hardy: Even though I don’t want it to be Justin Fields, it’s Justin Fields. I don’t know if Fields will be starting in Week 1; as of right now, GM Ryan Pace still maintains that Andy Dalton is Chicago’s starting quarterback, and this is the same organization that put Mike Glennon in the lineup for the first month of the 2017 season. But, barring injury or Dalton implausibly reverting back to his 2015 form, I imagine Fields will be the starter before too long.
And the Bears face a gauntlet of opponents, particularly starting in Week 6 against the Packers. In fact, by ESPN’s Mike Clay metrics, the Bears have the most difficult schedule in the league this coming season:
Any of the other rookies who have even a chance of starting — Trevor Lawrence, Zach Wilson, Trey Lance, Mac Jones, and Davis Mills, I guess — are all on teams that are in the top 14 of that chart.
Why can’t Fields catch a break?!
Ryan Van Bibber: He may not have the toughest schedule, but I feel for Mac Jones just a little bit with Tom Brady coming back to New England this season. That’s a cold shadow to live under, and tens of thousands of hammered Boston sports fans, weeping and then drinking even more to cope with those feelings, are going to be merciless. One misstep and all the kid if going to hear is “he’s no Tawwwmy” and be forever judged on that basis … or at least for a week of #narrative.
Which team is most likely to Panthers/Raiders their way into, and then out of, the playoff picture thanks to a soft opening schedule?
CD: The Bengals get Joe Burrow back, along with one of his favorite targets (2021 fifth overall pick JaMarr Chase) and will have a lot of runway to bring him up to speed. Cincinnati starts its season against Minnesota, Chicago, Pittsburgh, Jacksonville, Green Bay, and then Detroit — a lineup that, sans Aaron Rodgers, could present rookie Trevor Lawrence as its most threatening QB. There’s room for a 4-2 start there … and just enough hope to construct the glass engine that is Bengal fandom.
SH: The Vikings could easily be 5-1 or 6-2 before their Week 7 bye. After that, their slate becomes much more daunting — a road trip to Detroit is the closest to a gimme win. The rest are matchups against 2020 playoff teams and 2021 playoff hopefuls.
So just like the past three years, expect the Vikings’ postseason prospects to come down to the final month of the season, when they’ll play the Rams and have to travel to Lambeau Field to meet the Packers (and presumably, Aaron Rodgers) for a second time. And I’m not willing to trust Kirk Cousins in that situation.
RVB: The Cowboys have a tough start to the season on the road in Tampa Bay, but after that, things lighten up just a bit; they’re at Chargers, then three home games against the Eagles, Panthers, and Giants, before a road trip to New England ahead of their Week 7 bye. If everyone’s healthy, they could easily be 5-1 at that point. Their schedule isn’t especially tough after that either, but since this is the NFC East I would still somehow expect things to be ugly heading into the last quarter of the season.
What’s the worst scheduled primetime game of the year (Thursday Night Football, due to its rich tradition of shit, does not count)?
CD: There are several candidates here. For some reason, the NFL decided to schedule the Giants’ ritual sacrifice at the hands of Patrick Mahomes for a Monday night in Week 8 — a game only interesting for fantasy degenerates in need of 60 Tyreek Hill points to win that weekend’s matchup. Three weeks later, Danny Dimes returns on NBC to face the *other* participant in Super Bowl 55.
But aside from New York, there’s one game that stands out as a letdown for me. Week 2’s Sunday Night Football game is a showdown between the Ravens and Chiefs. This is not the problem. The issue is the follow-up Monday Night Football game is a divisional rivalry between the Lions and Packers.
Detroit is committed to Jaguar-ing its way through 2021 after trading away Matthew Stafford and setting its sights on the top pick of the 2022 draft. Green Bay will probably have Aaron Rodgers behind center, but there’s a not-insignificant chance Jordan Love will be out there skipping passes to Davante Adams. Following Ravens-Chiefs with a Lions game is like having steak tartare as an appetizer, then a bunch of salvaged sheet metal for the main course.
SH: When in doubt, go with an NFC East matchup. That’s not only the NFL’s approach to scheduling primetime games, but also how I decided on my pick: Eagles at Cowboys in Week 3 on Monday Night Football.
The Eagles will probably be bad. The Cowboys will probably be disappointing. I’m expecting a very on-brand NFC East game
RVB: The most amazing thing about the prime time schedule this year is the relative lack of NFC East games. There are currently only two on the docket for Sunday Night Football; TWO! (There are four on Monday nights.) I feel like we’re usually force fed a diet of those teams no matter how bad they are, so at least that’s something of a win … until a bunch of .500 teams from the division get flexed into that spot. The Bears-Rams that kicks off Sunday Night Football doesn’t seem like a very promising one.
What was the biggest surprise of the 2021 NFL schedule?
CD: That Week 1 after a pandemic in what should be a celebration of a (relative) return to normalcy … kinda sucks! RVB got into it in Wednesday’s newsletter, but aside from Browns-Chiefs there isn’t much to get excited about in this year’s opening week. The Buccaneers’ title defense starts against a Cowboys team that was 1-3 in the four games Dak Prescott finished last fall. There’s no Monday night doubleheader, and the lone MNF game we get will heavily involve the Raiders.
Watching Ben Roethlisberger, aging like a piece of art left in Dorian Gray’s attic, against the Bills’ defense will be fun though.
SH: The Browns are only scheduled for three primetime games, which is fewer than 15 other teams received and the same number as the Giants, WFT, and Chargers. I thought they’d be in the spotlight a little more, considering the Browns are 1) good now! 2) and fun! 3) not an off-the-wall Super Bowl pick.
They did, however, get slotted into a nationally televised game on Christmas Day against the Packers … who are set for five primetime games in addition to that late-afternoon Dec. 25 matchup. I guess the NFL doesn’t doubt, or is at least praying, that Rodgers will be playing for Green Bay this season.
RVB: There’s only one guaranteed stinker on Thanksgiving Day this year, barring injuries. Fortunately, the Bears-Lions game is the first one of the day, so we can ignore it in favor of cooking. Raiders-Cowboys could actually be good, a showdown of talented, yet poorly managed teams. Finally, Bills-Saints should be fun too (though I feel like the Saints could also end up being really bad this year too).
What non-Tom Brady showdown are you most looking forward to?
CD: Bear with me but … Giants-Chargers, Week 12.
New York general manager Dave Gettleman loves Justin Herbert. Scouted the hell out of him in college, even before he went on to win a Rose Bowl at Oregon.
But Gettleman also has the same ability to delay gratification as a toddler, which is why he drafted a running back second overall in 2018 and a quarterback he’d only really scouted at the Senior Bowl at No. 6 in 2019. Daniel Jones was his consolation prize when Herbert returned to the Ducks for his final year of eligibility, which is a depressing sentence to read if you’re a Giants fan.
Herbert won rookie of the year honors last season and absolutely looked the part of a franchise cornerstone on the field. He protects the ball, fits passes into tight windows downfield, and generally radiates confidence in his team’s rebuild. Jones does none of that. If he doesn’t make stark improvements with the vastly improved supporting cast he’s got in 2021, his days as a starter are numbered.
And so too would be Gettleman’s reign as GM if his Giants are a train wreck once again. What better way to close out the Gettleman-Jones era than with a statement victory from the quarterback New York’s top executive really wanted over the guy for whom he just sorta settled? Hell, what if Jones turns the corner and this is a battle of rising young QBs destined to meet in Super Bowl 61?
Damn, I’ve got a great imagination.
SH: As an Ohio State grad, I’m obviously picking Bears-Steelers in Week 9, which will feature a Buckeye-off between starting quarterbacks Justin Fields and Dwayne Haskins.
Who has the great imagination now, Christian? I mean, Big Ben and Mason Rudolph both getting injured and the Steelers turning to their third-stringer wouldn’t be *that* surprising; it happened just two seasons ago. I don’t actually believe it’ll happen, though.
Instead, I’ll say the first-ever Lamar Jackson vs. Aaron Rodgers showdown, which will come in Baltimore in Week 15. And yes, once again, this is all under the assumption Rodgers isn’t going anywhere.
RVB: I wish Kansas City were hosting Cleveland later in the season, when both teams are really hitting their stride. On the other hand, at least with the game being in Week 1 we don’t have to worry about injuries too much. But, yeah, this feels like an AFC Championship preview.
What are the best and worst weeks of the 2021 schedule?
CD: Week 9 has Packers-Chiefs and Titans-Rams annnnnd … that’s about it. 14 teams made the postseason last year, but the first full week of action in November will only feature three matchups between two 2020 playoff teams. One is Bears-Steelers.
Week 16, on the other hand, has a loaded Christmastime schedule that shunts the league’s worst teams into matchups with other bottom-feeders, creating a smorgasbord of appealing football. Lions-Falcons and Jaguars-Jets gives way to Packers-Browns (on Christmas Day!), Steelers-Chiefs, and even a Bills-Patriots game that could decide the AFC East.
SH: Week 2 starts with Giants-Washington on Thursday night, which pretty much sets the tone for the rest of the slate. Its only saving grace is a Chiefs-Ravens showcase on Sunday Night Football.
While I agree with Christian that Week 16 looks like a banger, the holidays are always busy and somewhat stressful — especially in 2021, when we can safely spend time with family members again. At least to me, the best week can’t be one when I can only pay half-attention to the games.
So I’m going with the week before Christmas. By that time, the byes are over, the playoff races are heating up, and more importantly, Week 15 is loaded with matchups that tend to get a little nutty — such as Chiefs-Chargers, Colts-Patriots, Seahawks-Rams, Saints-Bucs, and (really!) Cardinals-Lions. It also has that aforementioned Lamar Jackson vs. Aaron Rodgers meeting. On paper, that sounds pretty fun. And if it isn’t, well, then I can turn off the games and start prepping for the holidays by watching Home Alone for the, approximately, 18,678th time.
RVB: Week 18. I’m dead set against the extra week of the season, and even though there will be a few games with the playoffs on the line, I’m still worried that a lot of those will be happening with key players injured.
What is the *most* Thursday Night Football matchup on this year’s schedule?
CD: Jaguars-Bengals
SH: There are actually a couple good storylines in Jaguars-Bengals: Urban Meyer’s return to Cincinnati, facing off against one of his former quarterbacks, Joe Burrow. A clash between Burrow and Trevor Lawrence, the most recent No. 1 picks. Tim Tebow’s primetime comeback … lmao, just kidding on that one.
I don’t know if it’ll be the *worst* Thursday night game (that’s probably the week before between the Panthers and Texans). But considering the two franchises involved, Jaguars-Bengals is definitely the most true to the spirit of Thursday Night Football.
RVB: Jets-Falcons. The Jets have two TNF games within a month. This game has sadness and disappointment written all over it.