NFL Week 9: It took me by surprise, I must say
We examine another weirdo Sunday in the NFL, full of unpredictable outcomes and Josh Allens.
Halfway through an NFL season, we usually have gained some kind of clarity about which teams are contenders and which are pretenders. Based on what we saw in Week 9, I’m not sure who should be considered Super Bowl favorites. Really, about all we know at this point is that the Lions and Texans are bad, and every other team can win or lose any given Sunday.
To quote Cris Collinsworth on Sunday Night Football, "This league is so weird, isn't it?"
That unpredictability is part of why we love the NFL, though. And while this week had its share of predictable results — the Vikings and Ravens playing an overtime game, the Browns playing well without Odell Beckham Jr., Sam Darnold playing poorly against the Patriots — surprises monopolized the league on Sunday.
When we look back at this season, maybe we’ll find out that Week 9 marked a turning point for someone. Or maybe it was just a blip on the radar. Without the benefit of hindsight, we’ll just have to judge this weekend’s developments on their own. On that note, these are the biggest surprises from Sunday, leading off with the most unexpected outcome of the season so far.
The Bills lose a not-so-nice 6-9 game to the JAGUARS
One week ago, the Jaguars looked exactly like a team that hadn’t won a game on American soil in 14 months. Any progress they had made in recent weeks — including a win over the Dolphins in London — seemed to have evaporated during their bye week. They didn’t score until there were less than two minutes remaining in a 31-7 shellacking against the Geno Smith-led Seahawks.
Then they had to turn around and face the Bills, who entered the week with the top-ranked defensive unit in every major metric, including points allowed, total yards, and DVOA. While the Jaguars didn’t get into the end zone, their three made field goals was somehow enough to pull off the most shocking upset this year.
I thought the Bills were a lock this week and that their struggles against the Dolphins last week would serve as a warning not to take any opponents lightly. Instead, that was a bad omen for what was in store for them this week. The defense is still doing its job, but the NFL’s highest-scoring offense couldn’t move the ball against the NFL’s worst defense. Josh Allen, who reverted to his 2018/2019 form, threw two bad picks and took four sacks (compared to eight sacks in his first seven games).
Perhaps he was trying to do too much to compensate for a running game that has failed to get going most of the season. Yet he couldn’t rise up against the pressure the Jaguars threw at him (39.2 percent of his dropbacks) and, most notably, was repeatedly victimized by Josh Allen, who you know had been waiting for this moment since the Jags drafted him in 2019:
I wouldn’t be in panic mode if I were the Bills, who might simply just be the latest victim of the Manningcast Curse. But their offense is a problem right now and if they don’t fix their issues, then they can kiss any Super Bowl dreams goodbye … just like every other year.
The Cowboys get Dak Prescott back — and go completely cold on offense
Last week, the Cowboys eked out a win despite starting backup Cooper Rush with Dak Prescott nursing a calf injury. Earlier that day, the Broncos ended their four-game losing streak in an uninspiring close win over Washington. They followed that up by trading face of the franchise Von Miller, an apparent sign that they were waving the white flag on the season.
But on Sunday, the Broncos played their most complete game of the year and earned their first win over a quality opponent. This is what the 2021 Broncos were expected to be: steady quarterback play, strong running game that can help control the clock, and a fearsome defense. As impressive as Denver’s performance was, though, Dallas’ was even more disappointing.
Before his injury, Prescott was on pace for his best season yet, including career-highs in completion percentage (73.1), TD rate (7.4), adjusted yards per pass attempt (9.0), and passer rating (115.0). With Prescott in the lineup, the Cowboys were averaging more than 34 points per game. The offense, ranked No. 3 in DVOA, should have lit up a banged-up Denver defense that had been surprisingly ineffective this season.
That is not what happened. The Broncos jumped out to an early lead and never looked back, while Prescott produced one of the worst games of his career. At the start of the fourth quarter, the Broncos were up 27-0 and Prescott had completed 6 of 19 passes for 79 yards. The Cowboys could have easily been shut out at home if not for two garbage-time touchdowns that made the final score appear slightly more palatable than it was.
The loss isn’t only on Prescott; the offensive line was missing LT Tyron Smith, the receivers dropped passes, and the defense was a disaster. Well, outside of Micah Parsons, that is. Enjoy your puppy snuggles, Micah!
If the Cowboys had gotten a couple of breaks early on — converted a fourth down rather than go 0-for-4 in that department, or retained possession after they blocked a punt — maybe this contest would have unfolded differently.
This could have just been a dud, the type of “nothing goes right” game every team has at some point in the season. Either way, the next few weeks should tell us whether the Cowboys are for real or not.
The Rams go quiet after going “all in”
Speaking of duds and high-flying offenses taking the day off, what was that Sunday Night Football performance, Rams?
Like Bills vs. Jags, I was reasonably confident the Rams would take down the Titans, who are now without Derrick Henry for the foreseeable future. Even without Von Miller in the lineup yet, the LA defense showed up, holding Tennessee to just 194 yards.
Nothing was going right for Matthew Stafford and the No.1 DVOA offense, however. Some of the credit goes to the Titans, who have improved on defense in the last few weeks. But the Rams suffered from way too many self-inflicted wounds and were all out of sync from the start.
That was clear when Matthew Stafford threw back-to-back interceptions in the first half, which directly led to 14 points for Tennessee. It was clear when the Rams OL let Stafford get sacked five times (all on four-man rushes) — they came into Sunday averaging just one sack allowed per game, lowest in the NFL. And it was clear when the Rams kept racking up penalty after penalty, ending the night with 12 flags for 115 yards.
To be fair, not *every* penalty was legit:
Most likely, the Rams just didn’t have it on Sunday night, especially against a Titans defense that has really started to come on. But as we saw last year, you’re not going to win a Super Bowl if you can’t protect your quarterback. The Titans might have given opponents a blueprint to slow down LA’s offense, if the Rams don’t make the right adjustments going forward.
The Cardinals, without half of their offense, crush the 49ers
On Friday, I said I thought the Cardinals, who were a small underdog to the 49ers, would pull off a mini-upset on Sunday. I had assumed Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins would be playing, and I wouldn’t have been brave enough to pick the Cardinals had I known they’d be down their two best players. Vegas agreed, because the line right before kickoff moved to 49ers -5.5.
It made sense. The Cardinals barely held off the 49ers four weeks ago in Trey Lance’s first (and only) start. This time, the 49ers had Jimmy Garoppolo and George Kittle back, while the Cardinals were without:
Kyler Murray
DeAndre Hopkins
A.J. Green
Chase Edmonds
J.J. Watt
Somehow, it didn’t matter at all. Veteran Colt McCoy, in his first year with the Cardinals, was efficient and mistake-free, James Conner and Eno Benjamin combined for 135 rushing yards and three touchdowns, and the defense sacked Garoppolo five times and forced three turnovers.
On the positive side, this is the most promising sign yet that the Cardinals can avoid a second-half swoon this year. On the negative side, it’s been tough to peg down the 49ers this season, but after this stinker, I think it’s safe to say that they're, quite simply, a mess (and Kyle Shananan deserves a lot of blame for that).
The Browns earn their biggest win over the Bengals since 1987
Am I surprised that the Browns beat the Bengals? Of course not. They just went through a drama-filled week and had dropped three of their last four, but I never thought Kevin Stefanski would let his team reach the levels of dysfunction previous Browns squads have experienced. Plus, the Bengals were coming off a loss to the Jets.
Still, I expected a closer game and much more fight from the Bengals, who wallopped the Ravens two short weeks ago. They were undone by losing the turnover battle 3-0 (Joe Burrow threw two INTs, including a pick-six) and surrendering big plays to the Browns (Donovan Peoples-Jones’ 60-yard TD catch, Nick Chubb’s 70-yard TD run).
The last time the Browns beat the Bengals by 25 points was in 1987, during the players’ strike.
Are the Browns finally turning the corner? Are the Bengals coming back to earth? I don’t know that this game proved either, but I do think we’re in for an exciting second half in the AFC North. — SH
Christian’s shit list
All the things I hated about Week 9.
1. Sam Darnold vs. the Patriots
Two years ago, we were treated to Darnold seeing ghosts at New England’s expense. On Sunday, the haunted souls who tormented the former Jet in Foxborough moved their way south.
Darnold was the worst quarterback in a week filled with awful play, giving up more points via interception than his Panthers actually scored in Week 9. He was worth a whopping -26.7 expected points Sunday. His quarterback rating would have been 13 points higher if he just scuttled every pass into the turf.
Head coach Matt Rhule knows he needs to make a change. He also knows the three other quarterbacks on his roster are:
PJ Walker, who was an XFL god but has completed less than half his passes in pro football leagues not run by Vince McMahon
James Morgan, who could not find playing time as a quarterback for the New York Jets
Josh Love, who matters so little Pro Football Reference can’t even be bothered to figure out where he went to college.
None of those guys are gonna change a damn thing, but they might find a place on the roster next season. Darnold will be there, too, since his $18.8 million option is fully guaranteed. Poor Rhule has now found fool’s gold early in the season two years in a row. Without a reasonable escape plan from Darnold before 2023, his failure to rehabilitate other teams’ failed quarterbacks could lead to his ousting from a new team owner who proudly celebrates his boldness by displaying a bronzed set of bull testicles on his desk.
But hey, whoever lands Rhule after Carolina spits him out will wind up with a pretty good coach.
2. The Rams, running screaming from respectability
Week 9 seemed like the week Los Angeles was going to throw its weight around. NFC rivals Green Bay and Arizona went to war without their MVP candidate quarterbacks. A primetime game against the Titans without their prized workhorse Derrick Henry should have been a wondrous opportunity to make a statement about this team’s Super Bowl chances, five days after trading for Von Miller.
But Miller didn’t play and Henry’s absence didn’t matter because Matthew Stafford spent most of his night looking for rakes to step on in the backfield. First he went full Carson Wentz:
Then he followed that up with a pick-six. The reason behind all this? A good, but not exceptional Titans pass rush that had only 18 sacks in its first eight games but still bullied Stafford in a way that probably gave him fond memories of his time as a Lion. He was sacked five times and hit 11 more. That led to the Titans, who gained only 3.5 yards per play and had only one scoring drive that went longer than two yards in the first 57 minutes, earning a double-digit victory as a seven-point underdog.
3. Josh Allen, who has been bad at football in three of his eight starts so far
Trevor Lawrence needed 28 dropbacks to gain a net of 106 yards. This was still, by measure of passer rating, QBR, and EPA, significantly better than what one-time MVP frontrunner Josh Allen did for the Bills. Allen, who’d spent the better part of the last 15 months putting to bed all the “he’s the lesser Josh Allen” jokes, finally got to square off with the edge rusher who shares his name.
Then he proved he was the lesser Josh Allen. He was sacked by his name doppelganger. He fumbled and it was recovered by the other Allen. He dialed up the kind of play that would inspire long strings of obscenities through upstate New York and threw an interception to the good Josh Allen.
And Buffalo, a 15.5-point favorite, found the end zone zero times and lost a game that fell 34 full points short of the total; a 9-6 disaster that somehow didn’t take place in London.
Bills Mafia, realizing they spent money and vacation days just to watch this terrible football game AND wind up stranded in lesser Florida, handled it well:
I’m kidding. These people don’t have jobs that offer vacation days.
4. The Bengals’ crashing hype train
Presented in one short film:
The Bengals were the top team in the AFC two weeks ago. They’re currently in ninth place after getting frog stomped by the Browns.
5. Mike Davis, who I started over James Conner in fantasy
I tinkered. I don’t know why I ran with the expert projections after Conner’s two-touchdown day last week, but I rolled with Davis against the Saints’ smothering run defense instead of Conner on a day when his starting quarterback and top wideout were iffy.
Mike Davis: nine carries, 13 yards, one catch, five yards, 2.8 fantasy points
James Conner: 21 carries, 96 yards, two touchdowns. Five catches, 77 receiving yards, one touchdown. 40.3 fantasy points.
All fantasy sports are pain. I hate it here.
Week 9 results, in five words or fewer
Browns 41, Bengals 16
Broncos 30, Cowboys 16
Patriots 24, Panthers 6
Patriots miss playing Darnold twice
Dolphins 17, Texans 9
Falcons 27, Saints 25
Giants 23, Raiders 16
Raiders lose after bye … again
Jaguars 9, Bills 6
Ravens 34, Vikings 31 (OT)
Justin Tucker wins it, obviously
Chargers 27, Eagles 24
Cardinals 31, 49ers 17
Cardinals cruise with … Colt McCoy?
Chiefs 13, Packers 7
Titans 28, Rams 16