Cursed picks for a spooky NFL Week 8
Which teams can overcome their bad juju on Halloween weekend?
Nothing will make you believe in curses more than sports. And like rules and records, curses were made to be broken. In just the last six years, we’ve seen the Cavs deliver the city of Cleveland a long-awaited championship, the Cubs end the Curse of the Billy Goat, and the Eagles hoist the Lombardi Trophy.
But there are still plenty of active sports curses ready to be lifted, particularly in the NFL. Since Halloween falls on Monday of Week 8, I thought there was no better (re: spookier) time than now to adopt a curse theme for this week’s picks.
That’s especially true after Thursday night, when the Buccaneers dropped their third straight game in a loss to the Ravens. Maybe Gisele really *did* cast a spell on Tom Brady!
Before we get into which other curses are on this week’s slate, first let’s take a look at the latest odds, courtesy of DraftKings (the favored team is in bold):
Broncos at Jaguars (-2.5)
Patriots at Jets (+2.5)
Steelers at Eagles (-10.5)
Dolphins at Lions (+3.5)
Cardinals at Vikings (-3.5)
Bears at Cowboys (-10.5)
Panthers at Falcons (-4.5)
Raiders at Saints (+1)
Titans at Texans (+3)
Giants at Seahawks (-3)
Commanders at Colts (-2.5)
49ers at Rams (+1)
Packers at Bills (-11)
Bengals at Browns (+3)
As a reminder, I will highlight a few select matchups, but if you want picks for every game, Christian has you covered at FTW.
Now it’s time to light the Black Flame Candle and find which curses await us this weekend.
The forever cursed franchises
For some teams, their wretched history of loserdom can’t be fixed in one game midway through the season. However, a win in Week 8 could be a turning point for two in particular — if they can pull off the upset. It’s certainly possible, but …
Halloween Kills: Bengals over Browns
The Browns will be hosting a division rival on Halloween for the second year in a row. And once again, Myles Garrett is killing it with the Halloween decorations:
Alas, that’s the nicest thing I can say about the Browns right now. Well, that and they did at least look better last week in a close loss to the Ravens than they had at any other point in their current four-game losing streak.
If there’s hope for them on Monday night against the Bengals, it’s that their Week 7 performance was something to build off of, even if they came up short. Joe Burrow not having his favorite target, Ja’Marr Chase, for the foreseeable future could also benefit Cleveland.
I think the Browns can win. I also think they are always ready to invent ways to lose. I’m predicting they’ll be a victim on Halloween for the second straight season.
You really believe you can bring life to the dead?: Dolphins over Lions
Speaking of teams that invent ways to lose, the Lions are back in Detroit this week and looking for their second win of the season. Last week, the Lions threatened to take a lead over the Cowboys in the fourth quarter, but Jamaal Williams fumbled at the goal line — the first lost fumble of his career — and a tightly contested game turned into a double-digit Cowboys win.
While the Lions have the ability to compete — the 29-0 beatdown from the Patriots in Week 5 notwithstanding — they so often lack the ability to finish. They also have the bad luck of playing the Dolphins now rather than a couple weeks ago, when Tua Tagovailoa was still sidelined. Detroit’s dormant offense could come to life a la Frankenstein’s monster against Miami’s mediocre defense. The problem is with Detroit’s defense, which will likely get burned, a la Frankenstein’s monster, while trying to slow down the Dolphins’ high-flying offense.
(Side note: Dan Campbell should dress up as Frankenstein’s monster for Halloween, right?)
The Peyton Manning cursed teams
Peyton Manning played for two teams in his Hall of Fame career. Both have struggled to find an answer at quarterback since his departure. Am I saying that Manning put a curse on the position, just like Voldemort and the Defense Against the Dark Arts job? Well, it wouldn’t be the only time his name has been attached to a curse.
An American Werewolf in London: Jaguars over Broncos
Without Russell Wilson last week, the Broncos lost a one-score game in which the defense stood tall but the offense put up just 9 points. That … actually was similar to how the Broncos have looked with Wilson in the lineup.
He plans to return on Sunday in London, and if you’re wondering if the time change will bother him, the answer is no, because he doesn’t really sleep much anyway:
Maybe he’s a werewolf or a vampire? Whatever he is, he’s lost his powers since joining Denver.
The Jaguars are in a similar boat as the Broncos: They’re 2-5 and have lost four straight, though they’ve proven they’re capable, at times, of scoring points. That, plus playing at Wembley Stadium (their home away from home), is why I’ll give the Jags the edge.
Happy Samhain: Colts over Commanders
Although the Colts rank dead last in the NFL in offensive DVOA, it was still a shock when Frank Reich announced that they were benching veteran Matt Ryan in favor of second-year quarterback Sam Ehlinger, who has never thrown a pass in the NFL.
His first start will come against a Washington defense that is returning to form. However, Ehlinger’s scrambling ability brings a different element to this matchup. While the Commanders are stout against the run, they’re vulnerable to running quarterbacks (Justin Fields totaled 12 carries for 88 yards on them two weeks ago). The Colts’ already solid defense will welcome Shaquille Leonard back to the lineup, too, which should make things tougher on Washington’s inconsistent offense.
This one could go either way, in part because Ehlinger is a bit of an unknown factor. Still, it’d be hard for Indy’s offense to get much worse. I think he can do just enough to get the Colts back in the win column, this week anyway.
The teams terrorized by a bogeyman
The four teams above all have a season-long (or multiple seasons long) battle with their demons. Two others will go head-to-head against the main villain of their story this Sunday.
Do you like scary movies?: 49ers over Rams
When these two NFC West adversaries played earlier this month, I predicted a close win for the Rams, which would have been Sean McVay’s first in San Francisco since 2018.
The 49ers won 24-9.
The Niners are more injured now and the Rams are fresh off a bye week. It’s tempting to pick the Rams again, but I refuse to be the person in a horror movie who runs upstairs when the masked killer comes to my house.
So I’m choosing to run outside, i.e. taking the 49ers over the Rams for their eighth straight regular season win in the rivalry, with a big game from recent SF addition Christian McCaffrey. Hopefully it doesn’t lead to a Casey Becker-type fate, though.
Now you die: Jets over Patriots
For a few weeks now, I’ve been expecting the Jets to lose — and they just keep winning. It would seem like their hot streak would end this weekend, after their stagnant offense just lost two more players for the season (Breece Hall, Alijah Vera-Tucker).
Plus, they’ll be hosting the Patriots, who have beaten the Jets 12 straight times (and 20 times in their last 22 matchups). I should know better than to take the Jets.
And yet, I just saw New England’s defense unexpectedly get run over by a young mobile quarterback (Justin Fields) and the Bears’ overall strong ground game. Zach Wilson, newly acquired back James Robinson, and Michael Carter could follow a similar gameplan.
Meanwhile, New York’s defense can harass Mac Jones/Bailey Zappe like the Bears did on Monday night. The Jets have momentum on their side and revenge on their minds. This would be the perfect time for them to slay their own version of Freddy Krueger (Bill Belichick, who was oh-so-briefly their head coach).
Unfortunately for the Jets, Freddy always comes back — and they have a rematch against the Patriots next month. Maybe they should take a page out of Russell Wilson’s playbook and never sleep again.