NFL Week 4 upset watch
Several underdogs — or "underdogs" — are worth keeping an eye on this weekend.
Week 4 is off to a sobering start. Tua Tagovailoa’s scary-looking injury — his fencing response was particularly frightening for those watching in real time — landed him in the hospital, just days after it appeared as if he sustained a head injury against the Bills. (The Dolphins said that was a back injury and Tua later returned to the game, much to the concern of anyone who saw him stagger around after a big hit.)
There’s already an ongoing investigation into whether the Dolphins and the NFL followed proper protocol in Week 3. I’m not a medical expert and I will not pretend to know anything certain, one way or the other, about Tua’s injury. I do know that players have said they’ve passed concussion tests and then had memory lapses immediately after. I know that players will sometimes lie and say they’re OK just to keep playing, or believe they’re OK when they’re really not. It’s the league’s, the team’s, the coaching staff’s, and the medical personnel’s responsibility to make sure that doesn’t happen.
I hope they did right by Tua last week and again on Thursday night, when he was cleared to play in the first place. I’m not going to give anyone the benefit of the doubt, however.
The good news is that Tua was released from the hospital and flew back to Miami with the team. The UC Medical Center is a Level I Trauma Center, and it would not have allowed Tua to leave if there had been any medical reason to monitor him overnight. For comparison, Ryan Shazier remained at the UC Medical Center for a couple days when he suffered his spinal injury five years ago. He was then transferred to the University of Pittsburgh Medical Center.
But there’s still a lot we don’t know about what happened to Tua and why, and the Dolphins and NFL will have to answer for that.
When Tua was carted off, it cast a pall over Thursday night’s game. The Bengals, favored in part because of Tua’s uncertain status, led most of the way and were able to pull away late. Maybe a healthy Tua would have been able to lead Miami to an upset win, but we’ll never know.
There’s potential for other upsets this weekend, especially because, well, most of the point spreads are within a field goal. Here are the latest odds from DraftKings, as of Friday afternoon, for Week 4’s slate (favored team is in bold):
Vikings at Saints (+3)
Bills at Ravens (+3)
Jaguars at Eagles (-6.5)
Commanders at Cowboys (-3)
Jets at Steelers (-3.5)
Browns at Falcons (+1)
Chargers at Texans (+5.5)
Seahawks at Lions (-3.5)
Bears at Giants (-3)
Titans at Colts (-3.5)
Cardinals at Panthers (+1)
Patriots at Packers (-9.5)
Broncos at Raiders (-2.5)
Chiefs at Buccaneers (-1)
Rams at 49ers (-2)
I’m going to focus on a handful of those potential upsets this week. As always, if you want picks for every game, check out Christian’s column at FTW.
Who should be on upset watch
Only a few teams this week qualify as major underdogs, but their opponents should be on alert anyway — well, maybe not the Packers, who should easily take care of the Patriots without Mac Jones.
So which ones will actually pull off the upset?
Calling Ted Lasso: Saints over Vikings
The Saints are not in a good place, at least offensively: they clearly miss Sean Payton’s playcalling, and practically the only healthy player on that side of the ball is rookie receiver Chris Olave. Michael Thomas has already been ruled out on Sunday, and it looks like Andy Dalton will need to start at quarterback for Jameis Winston, who has been hampered by a few different injuries.
If any team could use a dose of Ted Lasso’s “Believe” message right now, then it’s the Saints. And wouldn’t you know, they’re playing in London this Sunday, facing an opponent they’ve fared well against in the regular season lately.
In their last six regular season meetings, the Saints are 5-1 against the Vikings (and 0-2 against them in the playoffs in that same span). This year, these two teams are fairly evenly matched in the talent department, though Minnesota is healthier and boasts the superior record (2-1 vs. 1-2). Still, it feels like the Vikings are due for a loss; call it the Kirk Cousins effect, but they tend to only play well in half their games. Plus, New Orleans’ defense has the players, most notably in the secondary, to ruin Cousins’ trip to the UK. There’s also a chance of rain that afternoon, which seems like prime “Cousins fumble time” weather.
There’s one other potential factor that could decide this one: the Saints have been in London all week, while the Vikings only arrived on Friday. Is that enough time for the Vikes to settle into a foreign environment?
The Saints aren’t a huge underdog, but I think they can make Ted Lasso proud. And similar to how AFC Richmond beat Tottenham in season 2, the Saints can win in Tottenham Hotspur Stadium — and like Spurs fans, sing to the tune of “When the Saints Go Marching In” afterward.
The fans might not boo for once: Eagles over Jaguars
Doug Pederson, the only head coach to deliver a Super Bowl to the city of Philadelphia, makes his return to Lincoln Financial Field, this time on the other sideline. Eagles fans, unlike what they did to Carson Wentz (on the road!), Jalen Reagor, and Santa, probably won’t boo Pederson.
Probably.
But it’s hard to argue that the Eagles-Pederson split was a bad thing. Sometimes, divorce is best for everyone involved. In this case, the Eagles, under second-year coach Nick Sirianni, have made the playoffs and are the only undefeated team remaining this year. Meanwhile, Pederson has turned the Jaguars around in no time, in no small part to the excellent job he’s done with Trevor Lawrence. More impressively, the team itself is currently ranked second in overall DVOA after finishing 2021 in last place.
I think there’s a possibility of an upset here, both because of the roll the Jags have been on — consecutive 20+ point wins for the first time in 22 years — and because of Pederson’s familiarity with the Eagles personnel. Nonetheless, Jalen Hurts is making an early-season MVP case and has taken a huge step forward since Pederson was his coach:
The Eagles have also dominated their competition this year. I say they stay unbeaten for another week.
Depends on Justin Herbert’s injury: Chargers over Texans, unless Herbert has a setback
The Chargers entered this season with their most loaded roster in a while. But because they once crossed a witch who cursed the franchise until the end of time, they are 1-2 and all of their stars are hurt:
The Texans are still looking for their first win of the season and are probably destined to wind up with the No. 1 pick in next year’s draft. Yet, they’d have a winning record if NFL games only lasted three quarters. So they’re competitive but can’t quite sustain that effort for 60 minutes.
Justin Herbert is coming off a rough outing last week against the Jags, when he was limited with a rib injury. Herbert is good to go this Sunday, and if he’s not noticeably restricted, the Chargers will likely win. However, if Herbert has a setback — or is as negatively affected by his injury as he was in Week 3 — then a burgeoning Texans secondary could help the home team get its first W. For now, I’m siding with the Chargers, though I know the curse could strike again at any time.
Don’t call it an upset if the underdog wins
This week’s high-profile contests are all essentially a coin toss. Even if the favorite loses, it could hardly be considered much of an upset. Nevertheless, there are a couple minor “underdogs” to keep an eye on.
GOAT vs. Baby GOAT, Part 6: Chiefs over Bucs
Patrick Mahomes is in his fifth season as the Chiefs’ starting quarterback, and he’s already faced off against Tom Brady five times. This Sunday will be the sixth (and last?!) and the first since Brady’s Bucs got the victory in Super Bowl LV.
Before that championship showdown, Twitter unveiled these GOAT emojis:
It was a little cringe but harmless, kinda like Sunday Night Football recruiting Beck to cover Neil Young’s “Old Man”:
(I say this as someone who is a fan of Beck’s music. Guy has been putting out bangers since I was kid and has never stopped.)
Brady holds a 3-2 head-to-head advantage over Mahomes, and after a stressful week due to Hurricane Ian, the game will go on as planned in Tampa. Both teams are coming off their first loss of the season and want to avoid falling to 2-2. The Bucs, at home in front of fans who could use a pick-me-up, will have extra motivation.
But so will Mahomes, especially after the KC Star published this garbage Letter to the Editor as a cheap ploy for engagement (I refuse to click the link and recommend you avoid it as well):
The Bucs are still not meshing on offense, but they have the defense to slow down Mahomes. Despite that, I don’t believe the Chiefs will shoot themselves in the foot as much as they did last week against the Colts.
I think this one will go down to the wire, but I like Mahomes to even up his career series with Brady.
The best of the 2018 QB draft class, Part 3: Bills over Ravens
Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen are the only two first-round quarterbacks from the 2018 draft class still with the team that selected them. Both are legitimate MVP candidates this year as well.
If you traveled back in time four years ago and told college football fans as much, they would not be surprised that Jackson has thrived. Allen’s success, though, was a bit more unexpected.
On Sunday, they’ll meet on the field for the third time, with the series tied at one apiece. Jackson’s playmaking will present a unique challenge for the Bills’ second-ranked defense as Buffalo continues to deal with a long list of injuries. But the Baltimore defense will also have its hands full with Allen, and similar to the Chiefs, I wouldn’t bank on the Bills making as many costly mistakes as they did last Sunday.
This matchup could turn into a shootout, and while the Ravens may have a slight edge offensively, I’m leaning toward the Bills because they’re the more well-rounded team.
Coaching BFFs Sean McVay vs. Kyle Shanahan, Part … I’ve lost count: Rams over 49ers
For the most part, Kyle Shanahan has owned the head-to-head series against his pal and former coworker Sean McVay. Last postseason, however, McVay earned the biggest win against Shanahan yet: the one that clinched an NFC title for the Rams and led to their eventual Super Bowl win.
It’s back to the regular season on Monday night, though, and that’s where the 49ers have a six-game winning streak over the Rams. McVay has a plan to stop San Francisco’s running game, and if that works, then it’ll put more pressure on Jimmy Garoppolo to perform.
Last time he needed to step up in a primetime game, he instead stepped out … literally:
Although LA has had its own issues on offense, overall I trust the Rams more than I do the Niners. It should be close, as it usually is when these two foes clash, but I think McVay can get his first win in San Francisco in nearly four years.