NFL Week 7: To fluke or not to fluke
The Sam Darnold renovation project looks like a money pit, the Chiefs defense finds new embarrassing ways to fail, and the Bengals are really doing this, huh?
Sometimes, early-season outcomes are a harbinger of what’s to come. Through the first few weeks, Kyler Murray and the Cardinals looked unstoppable, Matthew Stafford was the perfect fit at quarterback for the Rams, and the Lions earned an A for effort (and an F in actual results). Those are all still holding up through Week 7.
On the other hand, the Texans showed competency early on, while teams like the Colts and Vikings couldn’t buy a win. Those circumstances have since changed.
After another eye-opening Sunday in the NFL, I decided to take a look at a few developments from the beginning of the season. Which one now looks like a fluke, which doesn’t, and which should we still be in “wait and see” mode about? Let’s find out.
Fluke: The Broncos’ and Panthers’ hot starts
A month ago, the Broncos and Panthers were both 3-0 and two of the most pleasant surprises in the early part of the season. Since then, neither has won a game, with each loss progressively worse. This week, the Broncos couldn’t beat a Browns team that was without its starting quarterback, top two running backs, and whose receiving corps was really banged up.
On Sunday, the Panthers could only manage a season-worst three points and let Daniel Jones — who was also without his No. 1 running back, top three receivers, and starting left tackle — eat up a defense that was at one point ranked No. 1 in DVOA. Sam Darnold, in his return to MetLife Stadium, was benched not long after throwing his seventh interception in the last four games.
In hindsight, it’s easy to see how those starts were a mirage. The Broncos’ wins came against the Giants, Jaguars, and Jets. For the Panthers, it was the Jets, helter-skelter Saints, and Texans. A regression to the mean was always likely. And the reasons each team got here are quite similar:
A moribund third-down offense. The Broncos have converted just 31.8 percent (28 of 88) of their third downs, worse than every team in the league but the Jaguars and Panthers. Carolina dropped all the way down to No. 31 after a dismal 2-of-15 showing against the Giants. The Panthers have now converted 31.6 percent (30 of 95) of their third downs.
A lack of big pass plays and inability to get points on the board. Per Sharp Football’s stats, the Broncos average an 8 percent explosive pass rate, which ranks in the bottom third of the league. On Thursday night, they completed just one pass for more than 25 yards (Courtland Sutton’s impressive one-handed snag for 31 yards). The Panthers, before Sunday, were averaging 9 percent in the same category, but that rate will decrease after their longest completion went for just 21 yards against the Giants.
Teddy Bridgewater has been serviceable, but without big-play threats like KJ Hamler and Jerry Jeudy in the lineup, he’s struggled to get the Broncos down the field in a hurry. And sometimes, he’s struggled to get them down the field at all, especially early. During this losing streak, Denver has scored just 20 points in the first half of its games. In total, 37.5 percent of the Broncos’ drives end in points, but that number dips to 30.6 percent in the first half.
The Sam Darnold experience in Carolina has imploded, so much so that the Panthers are even putting themselves in the running for Deshaun Watson, whose status somehow remains a big question mark while he faces 22 civil lawsuits. The offense has gone cold at inopportune times — including the second half of their collapse against the Eagles and pretty much all day in the loss to the Giants. They are scoring on 30.6 percent of their drives. Not having Christian McCaffrey in the lineup hurts, but no Saquon Barkley didn’t stop the Giants on Sunday.
The defense hasn’t been able to carry the load. Denver’s defense was supposed to be its strength, particularly its secondary and pass rush. That has not been the case, however. More than half of the Broncos’ sacks were recorded during their first three games, and their pass-rush win rate ranks near the bottom of the NFL. They’ve also forced just one turnover during their current skid.
Carolina’s defense has been better overall than Denver’s, but it’s also fallen off the last four weeks. It’s forced three turnovers in the last four games, losing the turnover battle 9-3. After allowing an average of 10 points per game in the first three weeks, that number has almost tripled in the four losses. The Panthers have 18 sacks on the season, and only four of those have come in the last four weeks (they went without a sack in two of those defeats). The defense has been spectacularly unclutch during this slide, too. It allowed the Eagles to stage a fourth-quarter comeback, then let Kirk Cousins march down the field in overtime, then gave up a one-handed catch highlight to … Daniel Jones:
There aren’t many easy opponents left for either team, and their current situations don’t offer much hope for a major turnaround in the second half of the season. Before the season started, the win total over/under was 7.5 for the Panthers and 8.5 for the Broncos — better than how they finished in 2020, yet not good enough to contend for a playoff spot. That kind of purgatory is probably where they’ll end up.
Not a fluke: The Bengals’ considerable improvement
If the season ended today, the Bengals would be the AFC North champions. Of course, there are still 11 more weeks left to go, but I’m not sure many predicted the Bengals to be in this spot. With their blowout win in Baltimore, the Bengals are now 5-2, same as the Ravens (but they hold the tiebreaker) and ahead of the 4-3 Browns and 3-3 Steelers.
So how are they doing this? With an explosive offense and a resurgent defense. There’s no sophomore slump for Joe Burrow; you can’t tell that he tore his ACL less than a year ago. In particular, his chemistry with former LSU teammate Ja’Marr Chase is Oscar Isaac-Jessica Chastain good. The rookie receiver gives the Bengals the type of weapon they’ve needed — someone who can stretch the field and make defenders regret their life choices. Chase, who is demolishing rookie records, was unquestionably the biggest playmaker against the Ravens and the main reason they pulled off the upset. He finished with eight catches for a season-high 201 receiving yards and one (82-yard!) touchdown, handing Marlon Humphrey the worst day of his otherwise excellent career:
Chase now ranks second in the league with 754 receiving yards (trailing only Cooper Kupp) and first with an average of 21.5 yards per catch. He pretty much has the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Award in the bag.
But the defense has been doing its part too. This unit ranked in the top five of DVOA even before it held the Ravens to a season-low 17 points. After recording just 17 sacks in all of 2020, the Bengals have 19 already in 2021. The pass rush got to Lamar Jackson five times Sunday, more than any other opponent this season.
The Bengals do not have an easy road ahead to make it back to the playoffs for the first time since 2015, but they can’t be slept on anymore. Not when they’re playing this well, not when the Ravens and Browns have a CVS receipt-length list of injuries, and not when the Steelers are trotting out the corpse of Ben Roethlisberger each week.
Wait and see: The Packers’ winning streak
The Packers’ first game of the season was a total dud: They got blown out by the Saints, and Aaron Rodgers put up a near career-worst passer rating. Since then, they’ve reeled off six straight wins and have a comfortable lead over the rest of the NFC North.
One of the problems is that of those six wins, only one was against a team that currently has a winning record (the Bengals, which came in overtime after both teams missed a zillion kicks). And the caliber of opponents is about to get a lot tougher from here on out, starting on Thursday when Green Bay visits the 7-0 Cardinals.
Even with that relatively lightweight schedule in the first seven weeks, the Packers still had their share of problems. Coming into Week 7, the defense hadn’t stopped anyone near the goal line — teams were converting 100 percent (15 of 15) of their red zone attempts into touchdowns. Per ESPN Stats and Info, they were the only team in at least 40 years that didn’t get a red zone stop through the first six games. The Green Bay defense tried to atone for that disgraceful record all in one day when it didn’t allow Washington to score on any of its four red zone tries. Then again, it took Taylor Heinicke forgetting the most basic rules of football and other Washington miscues for that to happen.
And while the offense has been predictably efficient, Aaron Rodgers’ deep-ball numbers have fallen off dramatically from a year ago. That hasn’t come back to bite them yet, but with dates against highly ranked secondaries looming, it might just be a matter of time.
Chances are that the Packers aren’t in serious danger of missing the playoffs or not winning their division. However, whether they’re good enough to get over the hump and into the Super Bowl is still up for debate. — SH
Christian’s shit list
All the things I hated in Week 7
1. The Chiefs defense fell victim to the Titans’ ... passing game?
Kansas City is scraping the nadir of the Andy Reid-Patrick Mahomes era. Its 3-4 start is the worst the franchise has seen in five years. The Chiefs offense on Sunday mustered just three points against the league’s 28th-ranked defense. Their defense gave up 27 first half points … not to Derrick Henry and Tennessee’s bruising running game, but an ultra-efficient passing game that was barely challenged over 60 boring minutes.
There’s the first touchdown of the game, featuring Henry and the answer to the question “what if Tim Tebow were even more jacked?” The rest of the game belonged to Ryan Tannehill, who picked apart the Kansas City D for 10 yards per attempt despite a high school football-level of complexity from his passing offense:
This is great for the Titans, who’ve been shut down in the postseason on days when Henry’s stat line looks a lot like it did Sunday (29 carries, 86 yards). It’s horrible for the Chiefs, who still have a shitty defense but now cannot rely on their offense, especially after Mahomes had to leave the field with a head injury late in Week 7.
A get-right game looms in Week 8 vs. the Giants, but then come tests against the Packers, Raiders, and Cowboys. That’s not very much time to figure out exactly where all the holes are in this boat and how to fix them. It’s reasonable to think this Kansas City team goes from back-to-back Super Bowls to missing the playoffs in 2021.
Of course, Reid’s Chiefs went from 1-5 in 2015 to 11-5 and a Wild Card Round shutout win over the Texans. And that team didn’t even have Mahomes. So ...
2. Sam Darnold, ensuring Matt Rhule stays catfished in 2021
For a hot minute there, it looked like Darnold could finally reach the potential he’d shown at USC that convinced the Jets to mortgage entirely too much of their 2018 draft to move up from No. 6 to No. 3 in the first round. Carolina was 3-0 and head coach Matt Rhule looked like he was on the brink of a sophomore season breakthrough.
That has not happened. The Panthers have fallen from 3-0 to 3-4. Darnold, once promising, found himself yanked for XFL legend PJ Walker in the second half of a 25-3 walloping at the hands of the once 1-5 Giants. THE GIANTS.
Darnold was absolutely hideous, and Walker had 17 dropbacks and produced as many completed passes (three) as sacks taken. Rhule, once again, is in terrible shape behind a quarterback who started out hot but fizzled as the year went on. Last season it was Teddy Bridgewater, who vacated his folding chair throne to Darnold. Carolina rolled with the Adam Gase refugee over the prospect of drafting a quarterback at eighth overall last April.
Would Justin Fields or Mac Jones have been any better for the Panthers in Week 7? It’s possible. Could they have been any worse? No, because getting replaced by a quarterback who goes 3-14 in relief is pretty much as bad as things get.
3. The Bengals’ Week 2 loss to the Bears
There are several truly baffling outcomes through seven weeks of the 2021 season. None may be more confusing than the Titans’ ability to lose to the Jets and beat the Bills and Chiefs within the same month. That is … wow.
But Cincinnati’s early loss to Chicago simply seemed like a classic case of Bengal-ing. The Bears won when Justin Fields took over for Andy Dalton and played competently in his first significant playing time as a pro. Or, more appropriately, the Bears won when Joe Burrow fell apart like a Dollar Store action figure:
That, and a few iffy feet on Evan McPherson kicks in Week 5 vs. the Packers, are the two stretches currently keeping the Bengals from 7-0. Cincinnati controls its destiny in the AFC North with 10 games to play. Burrow and company could have the division on lockdown with just a few extra lucky bounces to start the year.
4. Matt Nagy, completely content to let Justin Fields twist in the wind
At what point do game reps stop being valuable for a young quarterback? That’s the question Bears coach Nagy was faced with Sunday. His response was something along the lines of “never,” even as Fields struggled his way through a three-interception, three-fumble day against the reigning champions.
Nagy, despite having a perfectly useful veteran capable of playing significantly better football than PJ Walker on his bench (Andy Dalton), kept Fields in through minute 60 of a game that was 35-3 at halftime. There was clearly no fear of the rookie picking up bad habits, even as he suffered through plays like these:
Is Fields getting anything out of this? It’s the second time he’s been forced to play pinata in a completely out-of-hand game the Bears had no chance of winning. In Week 3, the Browns sacked him nine times and hit him 15 more as Nagy left him in a hopeless game while Nick Foles sat on the bench. On Sunday, he was sacked only four times, but it was abundantly clear he had little to offer against Tampa’s depleted secondary.
What’s the right call here? Is Fields learning from the mistakes that come from these reps, or simply becoming ingrained in desperate football? Will the overarching lesson from these blowout losses by “f--- it, might as well throw downfield?” I genuinely don’t know, but Bears-Bucs was quite possibly the worst game of the 2021 season so far.
Or, possibly tied for that honor with the aforementioned Bears-Browns game.
However, I do strongly condone Tampa’s use of *its* backup late in blowouts. If things get so bad Blaine Gabbert shows up, you know you fucked up. He’s like the human equivalent of those masked squid game attendants. Someone give him a prop coffin with a pink bow to carry around on the sideline. — CD
Week 7 results, in five words or fewer
Packers 24, Washington 10
Titans 27, Chiefs 3
Chiefs just had another turnover
Falcons 30, Dolphins 28
Patriots 54, Jets 13
Giants 25, Panthers 3
MetLife = Darnold’s house of horrors
Bengals 41, Ravens 17
Your first-place Cincinnati Bengals!
Raiders 33, Eagles 22
Rams 28, Lions 19
Bucs 38, Bears 3
Cardinals 31, Texans 5
Colts 30, 49ers 18