Checking in on the NFL award races
We're past the one-third mark of the season, and Kyler Murray, Derrick Henry, and Dak Prescott are a few of the early frontrunners to take home the hardware. Plus, my pick for Broncos-Browns.
One downside to the NFL expanding to a 17-game schedule is there is no longer a natural quartermark or halfway point of the season. Stupid prime numbers!
We are through Week 6, which means more than one-third of the season is behind us. I guess that’s as good a time as any to check in on the state of the major 2021 award races.
My selections are not necessarily predictive — because there is still 11/17th (ugh, such an unsightly fraction) of the season remaining, some of the current frontrunners won’t be contenders when the NFL Honors presentation is held in early February. Perhaps we’ll take another look at how the races are unfolding in another six weeks, but for now, here’s who I think would be taking home a trophy if the season ended today.
MVP: Kyler Murray
There is no shortage of names — let’s face it, quarterbacks — who are realistic MVP candidates. Last year’s winner, Aaron Rodgers, has his Packers on a roll. The 2019 winner, Lamar Jackson, is approximately 98 percent of the entire Ravens offense and like Green Bay, they’ve reeled off five straight wins. Matthew Stafford and Dak Prescott are putting up impressive numbers for two NFC contenders. Josh Allen is the engine behind one of the top AFC teams. Tom Brady is Tom Brady.
But it’s Kyler Murray who stands above the rest right now. The Cardinals are the last remaining unbeaten team, with double-digit wins over the Titans, Rams, and Browns. And Murray is the main reason why. He’s been a highlight reel since he entered the NFL, but now he’s more than that. Murray is having the best passing year of his young career, posting a league-high 73.8 completion percentage, 116.2 passer rating, 67.6 QBR, and 9.44 adjusted yards per pass attempt (the latter three all third among starting QBs). He’s also been money on the most important downs.
Murray is running less than ever, by design, and keeps his eyes downfield rather than immediately taking off like he might have in the past. Still, his ability to scurry around and extend plays remains one of his greatest weapons:
The biggest hurdle for Murray and the Cardinals? They have to prove they can sustain this level of play into the second half of the season. In 2019, they went 2-7 in their last nine games. In 2020, that mark was 3-6. So far, though, neither Murray nor his team has shown any signs of slowing down.
Offensive Player of the Year: Derrick Henry
If the Titans surprisingly end up as the top seed in the AFC, Derrick Henry would have a legitimate shot at MVP honors. It’s more likely he’ll have to “settle” for Offensive Player of the Year for the second straight season, however.
The Titans’ two best wins — comebacks against the Seahawks and Bills — wouldn’t have been possible without Henry’s superhuman efforts. And I’m not really even being hyperbolic when I say that. How else would you describe a 247-pounder who can hit 21.80 mph??
Whether he’s sprinting by doomed defenders or bowling them over, Henry continues to be an absolute menace on the field. And the scary part is that he only seems to get more powerful as the season goes on. Last year, he rushed for at least 98 yards in all but one of his last eight games. The year before, he went over 100 yards in five of his last six regular season games (and then added 446 rushing yards in the postseason). In both seasons, he hit the 200-yard mark in the final week.
Henry currently leads the NFL in carries, rushing yards, and rushing touchdowns, just as he did in 2019 and 2020. He’s also No. 1 in touches and yards from scrimmage for the second year in a row. Even more impressively, Henry has more yards after contact than anyone else has total rushing yards — and more than eight teams have gained on the ground this season.
Barring injury or an unprecedented second-half decline, Henry will keep both the rushing crown and the Titans in contention.
Defensive Player of the Year: Myles Garrett
Unlike the first two categories, there’s no clear-cut favorite for Defensive Player of the Year at this moment. Trevon Diggs just tied a record with this seventh interception, but he’s also an “all or nothing” type cornerback. T.J. Watt made his case with a dominant and clutch outing for the Steelers on Sunday night, but he’s also missed time due to injury. Aaron Donald is and will always be a freak of nature that not even triple teams can stop.
However, Myles Garrett is the early frontrunner in my mind. Yes, sacks aren’t everything … though he does lead the NFL with eight, as well as nine tackles for loss. He’s also second in the NFL in QB hits and total pressures, and at least by one metric, No. 1 in pass-rush win rate. In all, Garrett has been a nightmare for opposing quarterbacks.
While Browns are a somewhat disappointing 3-3 and their defense has been inconsistent, Garrett has taken over in two of those three wins — against the Bears and Vikings, Garrett totaled 17 pressures and six sacks. Like most of the roster, the fifth-year defensive end has been banged up, but if he can stay healthy, and if his teammates can get healthy, then this might be the year Garrett finally snags DPOTY honors.
Offensive Rookie of the Year: Ja’Marr Chase
Whenever someone warns against reading too much into preseason performances, Ja’Marr Chase should be the first example given. In August, the only thing Chase was catching was flak for all his drops. The No. 5 overall pick, who hadn’t played since he was Joe Burrow’s favorite end zone target during LSU’s national championship run in 2019, had just one catch and four drops in the Bengals’ three preseason games.
Then the regular season started and the Chase-Burrow duo looked like they hadn’t skipped a beat. The 21-year-old leads the 4-2 Bengals with 553 receiving yards and five touchdown catches, which bests all other rookie receivers and ranks in the top five in the NFL. His 20.5 yards per reception average is No. 2 among qualified receivers, behind only Henry Ruggs III. He’s even on pace to break former college teammate Justin Jefferson’s record-setting rookie numbers.
More important for the Bengals, Chase is a big play waiting to happen and gives them an extra dimension they’ve lacked in recent years:
Even though he still occasionally drops the ball, I think the Bengals are feeling pretty good about their decision to draft him instead of an offensive tackle.
Defensive Rookie of the Year: Micah Parsons
Like the Defensive Player of the Year race, no one is running away with this one yet. Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah has made an impact for the Cleveland defense, though he’s now on IR due to an ankle injury. Asante Samuel Jr. is, like all Asante Samuels, a magnet for the football; he has two picks already. Odafe Oweh has been an immediate contributor to Baltimore’s defense, with more sacks and total pressures than any other rookie.
Micah Parsons, with 2.5 sacks to Oweh’s 3, is right behind him and has been the more consistent of the two. He’s been a valuable piece the Cowboys can move around as needed, whether it’s coming off the edge or dropping into coverage. His versatility and disrupting presence have helped transform the Dallas defense into a unit that ranks in the top 10 in DVOA.
His playing time has only increased in recent weeks, and as long as he can keep producing wherever he’s lined up, Parsons will be just one member of the Cowboys in serious consideration for a major award.
Comeback Player of the Year: Dak Prescott
Dak Prescott was the frontrunner for this award before the season even started, and all that’s standing in the way of him going wire-to-wire is his health. Right now, Prescott is dealing with a calf strain, though he’s not expected to miss any time.
If so, then that’s huge news for the Cowboys, who are, like, one win away from sewing up the NFC East. Dallas is off to a 5-1 start, thanks to the return of their franchise quarterback (and a more opportunistic defense). The Cowboys’ only loss came in the last minute of Week 1 to the Buccaneers. Otherwise, they’ve easily beaten the teams they were supposed to beat, and Prescott has delivered game-winning drives in their close matchups.
The second of those came in Week 6, when Prescott injured his calf. That didn’t stop him from engineering the Cowboys’ comeback over the Patriots — twice — to accomplish something no quarterback had done in the other 382 games, playoffs included, in which Bill Belichick has served as New England’s head coach:
Prescott is on pace to shatter most of his career highs, including completion percentage (73.1, second-highest in the NFL), passing TDs (16, third-most), passer rating (115.0, fourth-highest), and adjusted yards gained per pass attempt (9.0, fourth-highest). All that while carrying Mike McCarthy, too!
Coach of the Year: John Harbaugh
If I had written this a week ago, Brandon Staley likely would have gotten the nod. The first-time head coach has been a breath of fresh air, from his fourth-down philosophy to how he embraces advanced stats to his emotional intelligence.
He’s even gotten the Chargers to not play loser football. By that, I mean they’re 3-1 in one-score contests. They’re not giving up big leads and letting games get away from them in bizarre fashion. Staley is still one of the leading candidates and could be rewarded at season’s end, but he loses a bit of an edge after the Chargers look unprepared for their road matchup with the Ravens last weekend.
So at the moment, I’m going with the guy who just beat Staley head-to-head: John Harbaugh. The Ravens have 17 players on injured reserve — more than any other team — and lost their starting left tackle, their top three running backs, and best cornerback all by Week 1 … and yet here they are as the current No. 1 seed in the AFC. (The Lions have the second-most players on injured reserve, and they’re 0-6.)
Lamar Jackson continues to astound; contrary to some preseason speculation, the league has not “figured him out.” He deserves a lot of credit for the Ravens being where they are, especially the couple times he’s practically single-handedly brought them back from a sure-fire loss to a wild last-minute win.
But Baltimore isn’t just at 5-1 because of Jackson’s preternatural talent. Take the Ravens’ most recent victory, when they outclassed the Chargers in a total team effort. They got rushing touchdowns from Latavius Murray, Devonta Freeman, and Le’Veon Bell (in 2021!); the defense stepped up to stop a red-hot Justin Herbert; and Justin Tucker remained his perfect kicking self.
They did that just six days after coming back to beat the Colts in an overtime thriller Monday night. Harbaugh has done a terrific job getting his team ready to play each week and not let the injuries define them. Maybe they can’t maintain this clip all season and Staley or Kliff Kingsbury or Sean McDermott (whose Bills would’ve been 5-1 if Josh Allen hadn’t slipped on a banana peel) can come home with the award instead. Right now, though, Harbaugh has earned his place atop the leaderboard.
Thursday Night Football picks: Broncos vs. Browns
A few weeks ago, this matchup appeared to be, like NBC’s Thursday night lineup circa the mid-90s and early 2010s, must-see TV. But now, the Broncos and Browns are limping into their meeting … in a shortened week no less! Both teams are on losing streaks (three in a row for Denver and two for Cleveland) and have been racking up the injuries.
The Browns especially have been snake-bitten lately. Their top two running backs are out. Their top two wide receivers are also dealing with injuries and may or may not play. Same for both starting tackles. Baker Mayfield only has one working shoulder, and he’s out Thursday too. That’ll put Case Keenum in a starting lineup for the first time since 2019, and it’ll come against one of his former teams and one of his former teammates, Teddy Bridgewater.
As I’m writing this, the Browns are still a slight favorite, but the high volume of injuries has me leaning toward the Broncos. At least one of these teams will have ended their skid by Thursday night … unless it ends in a tie.