The Magnificent Week 7 picks
On paper, this looks like a fairly normal week. But when is the NFL normal?
Week 7 feels a bit like the calm before the storm. Six teams are on their byes, more than in any other week this season (at least until playoff time when 18 teams are sitting at home). Three games feature double-digit point spreads. And while the rumor mill is starting to heat up, the trade deadline isn’t until Nov. 2 (which is also Election Day … please vote and keep the crazies out of your state legislature/local school board).
Expect the action to ramp up soon around the league, but don’t be surprised if this week is relatively muted. In fact, the three of us are in agreement on most of the 12 contests remaining in Week 7:
(the original version of this post had an out-of-date chart that had Christian taking the 49ers earlier in the week. That’s officially a Colts pick, which is probably wrong. Sorry about the confusion — CD)
Then again, this is the NFL, so a drama-free week seems inconceivable. But as of now, here’s how we see Sunday playing out.
Sarah’s picks
Week 6 was brutal for me. It wasn’t just that several close games didn’t go my way — that’s common in the NFL. It’s that I whiffed badly on a couple of my picks, ones that I was feeling pretty good about no less, that ended up as double-digit losses.
I was sick all of last week, and I’m hoping that’s the reason I was so off the mark and that I can rebound this weekend. Perhaps that’s partly why I’m playing it safe (my picks in bold):
Washington vs. Packers
Chiefs vs. Titans
Falcons vs. Dolphins
Jets vs. Patriots
Panthers vs. Giants
Bengals vs. Ravens
Eagles vs. Raiders
Lions vs. Rams
Texans vs. Cardinals
Bears vs. Bucs
Colts vs. 49ers
Saints vs. Seahawks
I’m feeling most confident in these picks (Last week: 2-0)
Even though we have our share of toss-up games this week, there are also, thankfully, a few that appear to be gimmes.
Unless Jared Goff has been holding out on us and is ready to unleash a Count of Monte Cristo-style revenge plot, I don’t think his return to LA will be a happy one. The Lions just aren’t in the same league as the Rams … figuratively speaking, that is. In other words, if the NFL had relegation, the Lions would be demoted to its version of the Championship while the Rams would be thriving in the Premier League.
Same goes for the Texans and Cardinals. J.J. Watt may not even recognize the latest iteration of the Texans, but his new team should easily be able to stay perfect after a meeting with his former team.
And while the Patriots aren’t great this season, they’ve been playing better than their 2-4 record would suggest. More amazingly, they have yet to win at home in 2021. That should change Sunday, when they host the Jets, a rematch of the Patriots’ Week 2 win.
I’m feeling least confident in these picks (Last week: 1-2)
The Chiefs finally looked like themselves in the second half against Washington last Sunday. Is that a sign that they’re turning things around or just a result of playing Washington? Either way, I’m wary of trusting them too much against destroyer of worlds and excellent t-shirt wearer Derrick Henry:
But I’m wary of trusting the Titans any week, even though they just came off a statement win over the Bills.
The Colts have won two of three (which should’ve been a three-game win streak if not for a collapse against the Ravens), while the 49ers are mired in a three-game slide. Carson Wentz has been playing well lately, but the 49ers have a tougher defense than the Colts’ previous three opponents and are rested after coming off a bye. It kinda feels like the 49ers are due for a win here.
The Saints also just had their bye, which raises a question that I won’t know the answer to until late Monday night: Will we get the Good Saints or Bad Saints this week? The last time they played, we saw the former, and per their 2021 pattern, that means the bad version is supposed to be next … but does the bye cancel that out?
I’m counting on that happening, though I can’t be sure, especially when they’re playing the Seahawks in primetime. Just like last week, you can probably tune in to this matchup with five minutes left, watch it take about 14 different twists and turns, and then find out who stumbles their way to a win in ridiculous fashion.
Why I made these upset picks (Last week: 0-2)
My upsets simply haven’t been panning out lately. I’m already 0-1 this week because the Browns keep insisting on doing the exact opposite of what I pick them to do. It’s really annoying!
As such, I’m a little gun-shy about taking many chances right now. There are a few potential upsets on Sunday/Monday — the games I listed in the previous section, plus Giants-Panthers, Eagles-Raiders, and even Bengals-Ravens. But I’m not feeling bold enough to go with the underdog in any of them. There is one matchup that I will, however: Falcons-Dolphins.
The Falcons are slight favorites over the free-falling Dolphins in Miami. After winning two of three, the Falcons enjoyed a break last week following a win in London the Sunday before. The Dolphins are also fresh off a trip to the UK, but they opted to wait until later in the season to have their bye week. So they’re not only dealing with travel logistics, but they’ve also lost five in a row, including the one in London that ended the Jaguars’ 20-game skid.
It’s easy to understand why the Dolphins are a home underdog, but like the 49ers, it seems like it’s past time for them to get back in the win column. Maybe Tua Tagovailoa, who wasn’t even the problem in their loss to the Jaguars, will use all the recent trade rumors as extra motivation. The Falcons aren’t exactly playing at an elite level, either: Their two wins came against the Giants and Jets in one-score games.
Pay attention to the NLCS on Saturday night, too. If the Braves beat the Dodgers and clinch a spot in the World Series, that’s a sure sign the Falcons are headed for an L. After all, Atlanta sports can only have so much happiness in the same weekend. Or ever.
Christian’s picks
Welp, on Thursday we got to see that the Browns don’t have the best two-man RB rotation in the league; they have the best three-man rotation since D’Ernest Johnson is apparently awesome. Cleveland is back in business by climbing over .500, buying time to recover from its myriad injuries and staying afloat in a dense AFC North.
The hardest game to pick in Week 7 is now behind us. A very uninteresting weekend lies ahead. There isn’t much intrigue Sunday outside of Chiefs-Titans and, depending on how much you hate yourself, Falcons-Dolphins. Three different games feature spreads of 12+ points. The only question facing Texans-Cardinals is whether or not the refs will let that game go running clock in the fourth quarter so fans can get home to their families.
Here’s what I’m thinking for the dozen remaining games in Week 7:
Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens (-280)
Atlanta Falcons at Miami Dolphins (+115)
Kansas City Chiefs (-210) at Tennessee Titans
Carolina Panthers (-160) at New York Giants
New York Jets at New England Patriots (-320)
Washington Football Team at Green Bay Packers (-380)
Philadelphia Eagles at Las Vegas Raiders (-165)
Detroit Lions at Los Angeles Rams (-1200)
Chicago Bears at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-750)
Houston Texans at Arizona Cardinals (-1800)
Indianapolis Colts (+170) at San Francisco 49ers
New Orleans Saints (-230) at Seattle Seahawks
Pick I like the most
Panthers over Giants.
Carolina is only a minor favorite in New York, and I understand why. The Panthers’ 3-0 start has faded into a 3-3 middle with losses to the Eagles and Vikings on their resume.
However, Sam Darnold showed up to make big throws late against Minnesota and was perhaps only a coin toss away from breaking his losing streak. In Week 7 he gets the Giants, who have lost their last two games by 54 combined points. This is a get-right game for Matt Rhule’s team. I fully expect him to take advantage.
Toughest game to pick
Chiefs over Titans.
The Chiefs are the team you believe in, only to be let down. The Titans are the team you fade based on their shaky past, only to be shown up in big moments. Throw in a Nashville home game and all signs point to a Tennessee upset, right?
But my lizard brain, even after seeing Kansas City’s defense implode and its offense stress itself to a breaking point attempting to keep up, still can’t write off Patrick Mahomes. The Titans’ passing defense has been horrible in 2021. First round cornerback Caleb Farley just hit injured reserve. Mahomes should be able to throw the ball wherever the hell he wants Sunday.
Tennessee will counter with Derrick Henry against the league’s 31st-rated rushing defense, and that will probably be a disaster for the Chiefs. The drive log on this game could be glorious, and I’m not sure I’d balk at an over/under until it hit 70. This should be a very fun game in the midst of a competitive Week 7 desert, but I’ll be damned if I know who’s gonna win.
Upset pick I like the most
I picked against the Dolphins last week and the Jaguars crawled through 500 yards of shit just to emerge with their first win on the other side. This week I’m rolling with Miami.
Brian Flores’ team has too much talent to be this bad. Tua Tagovailoa, subjected to trade rumors and the threat of being replaced by Deshaun Watson all week, gets to prove he’s a worthy franchise cornerstone against the Falcons. Atlanta’s entire identity is being the team who gets your struggling quarterback on track. To date, it:
allowed Jalen Hurts to throw three touchdown passes while amassing more than 325 total yards
gave up 300+ total yards to Daniel Jones
gave up 333 total yards and three passing touchdowns to Taylor Heinicke
Discouraging for the Falcons, but a wonderful opportunity for Tagovailoa. If he can’t rise to the occasion Sunday, maybe there’s something to those Watson trade talks.
I am new to your articles.
Christian in the chart you chose the 49ers.
In the body of the article you have in bold Colts+170.
What is the difference or is this an typo error?