NFL Week 6: So random
The league was full of chaos and surprises this Sunday, just as we like it.
Last week, I was accidentally exposed to a cranky baseball fan opinion that I had managed to avoid: the MLB playoff format is terrible because the best teams during the regular season were all eliminated and only teams that got hot at the right time advanced.
[pause here for dramatic eye roll effect]
That’s how sports work! That’s why we love them!
I also think that randomness is why the NFL is this country’s most popular sport. Well, that and Taylor Swift. I kid, I kid!
In the NFL, any team can beat any opponent on any given Sunday. We never know what to expect, whether it’s P.J. Walker and Zach Wilson helping take down the last two unbeatens, or it’s Arthur Smith coming up with a new meme face, or it’s the Lions having a serious case to be No. 1 in this week’s power rankings.
(I don’t usually put together my own power rankings, but I would absolutely slot the Lions into the top spot if I did: The offense is dynamic, the defense is turning into a force, their only loss was in overtime, their last four wins have all come by double digits, and they’re managing injuries better than any other team.)
This Sunday was full of surprises, even more so than usual. I highlighted six below, from least unexpected to most.
No. 6: C.J. Stroud and Brock Purdy each threw an interception
Entering Sunday, C.J. Stroud and Brock Purdy were the only two full-time starting quarterbacks who hadn’t thrown a pick yet this season. They each had an impressive interception-less streak going too. Stroud had set the NFL rookie record for the most consecutive pass attempts to start a career without throwing an interception. Purdy hadn’t been picked off since New Year’s Day.
Alas, every starting QB in the NFL will throw an interception eventually.
Stroud’s streak ended in the first quarter against the Saints when linebacker Zack Braun jumped in front of Dalton Schultz to snag the ball. Fortunately for Stroud, he would soon get a chance to atone for his mistake. Nico Collins chased down Braun and forced a fumble, which the Texans recovered.
Six plays later, Stroud targeted Schultz again for a touchdown and Houston jumped out to an early 7-0 lead. The Texans went on to win 20-13 to improve to 3-3, already matching their win total from last season.
Purdy’s first interception of the season — and first in 248 pass attempts — came in the third quarter of a tie game against the Browns. Although Cleveland wasn’t able to turn it into any points, the pick helped set the tone for the rest of the second half. The Browns, and perhaps the rainy weather too, vexed Purdy all afternoon, leading to the worst game of his career — as well as his first loss as a starter in the regular season. But more on that later.
No. 5: The Bengals came up clutch — on defense
Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase have garnered most of the Bengals-related headlines in recent years, but the defense quietly was there to pick up the slack when the offense was off its game. Heck, that could describe most of the Bengals’ playoff wins the past two seasons.
That hadn’t been the case this year, which isn’t entirely unexpected. Cincinnati lost a couple of steady vets — most notably Vonn Bell and Jessie Bates III — this offseason and is breaking in several new starters, especially in the secondary. Plus, the offense hadn’t been able to stay on the field much while Burrow has been recovering from his calf injury.
As such, the defense went from ranked No. 8 in DVOA in January to No. 23 coming into Week 6. It had been particularly susceptible against the run, allowing the second-most rushing yards, second-most explosive runs, and third-most yards/carry average in the league, as well as carrying the second-worst number in expected points contributed by the rushing defense.
The Seahawks and their efficient ground game represented a big challenge for the Cincinnati defense, which rose to the occasion. The Bengals held the Seahawks to 87 rushing yards on a season-low 3.5 yards/carry. When Burrow and the offense stalled out in the second half, the defense showed out.
After halftime, while Cincinnati’s lead was never greater than four, the defense picked off Geno Smith twice and stopped Seattle twice on fourth down inside the 10-yard line. It was the unit’s top performance so far this year and sign that the Bengals’ young defensive players are adapting to Lou Anarumo’s scheme at just the right time.
No. 4: The Raiders can close out games now
Last year, the Raiders were 4-9 in one-score games and blew double-digit second-half leads in five of those losses. This year, they’re 3-2 in such games and have often played their best in the fourth quarter.
That was not the case on Sunday, when the Raiders lost Jimmy Garoppolo at the end of the first half and had to hold on to keep the struggling Patriots from rallying. But Vegas did come away with the win and didn’t even need a once-in-a-lifetime brain fart to make it happen. Just like last week, the defense stepped up when it mattered most — and also got a little help from its opponent’s self-inflicted wounds.
In the second half, the Patriots’ touchdown-less drought came to an end after 12 quarters. Ezekiel Elliott scored his first TD with New England, and then Mac Jones found a nice connection with Kendrick Bourne on a 17-play, 75-yard drive that culminated in a Rhamondre Stevenson 1-yard run in the end zone.
After another Raiders punt, the Patriots were down two with just over two minutes remaining and had one more chance for the go-ahead score. On second down, Jones, who threw an interception in the first half so ugly that even Tony Romo was critical, dropped back and unleashed an honest-to-god great pass … and the ball slipped right through his receiver’s fingers. On third down, ironman Maxx Crosby sacked Jones in the end zone for a safety, sealing the Las Vegas win.
Unlike last year’s Raiders, this year’s team is finding ways to win, and it can thank its defense most of all for that. That’s not something we’ve been able to say very much!
No. 3: The Giants nearly (and maybe should have) upset the Bills
No one expected much from the Giants on Sunday night. Daniel Jones was out. The offensive line, which had surrendered an NFL-high 30 sacks this season, would be missing its best player (LT Andrew Thomas), starting center (John Michael Schmitz), and rotational tackle (Matt Peart). Another tackle, Evan Neal, was banged up. So was tight end Darren Waller. And star running back Saquon Barkley, who hadn’t played since Week 2, was a game-time decision.
Before kickoff, the Giants were 15-point underdogs and were starting an offensive lineman, Justin Pugh, who introduced himself as being “straight off the couch” because he had recently been signed to their practice squad. (Pugh even had to move from guard to left tackle after another OL injury.)
Still, with Barkley back in the lineup, Waller active, and veteran Tyrod Taylor under center, the one-win Giants didn’t just roll over in Buffalo. Right before the half, NY was up 6-0 and should have added to that lead. But on first-and-goal, they decided to run the ball, and when Barkley was stuffed, there wasn’t enough time left on the clock to spike the ball.
That gaffe proved costly. The NY defense had done a nice job of keeping Josh Allen in check in the first half, but he found a rhythm in the second half. The Bills, still on London time apparently, finally got on the scoreboard in the fourth quarter with two touchdowns. However, Tyler Bass missed his second field goal try late in the game, meaning Taylor and Co. had one more shot at pulling off the massive upset.
And they almost did! In the final minute and a half, Taylor spread the ball around to five different targets to get the Giants inside the Buffalo 15-yard line. With time left for one more play, Taylor wasn’t going to make the same mistake again. This time, he threw the ball to Waller, who was interfered with to give the Giants one untimed down at the 1-yard line. Taylor again went to Waller, who was again interfered with — but the flag wasn’t thrown twice, and the Bills held on for the 14-9 win.
I’m sure the Bills are happy for the bounce-back win, but I don’t know if either team can feel satisfied after that one.
No. 2: The Browns stymied the 49ers
In my Week 6 picks, I mentioned one reason the Browns, with third-stringer P.J. Walker, could beat the 49ers: their defense has been lights out this season under new DC Jim Schwartz. I certainly didn’t predict it would happen, though.
Cleveland’s defense limited the 49ers to season lows in most categories, including points, passing yards, and rushing yards. In fact, the Niners’ 215 total yards was the fewest they’ve ever had under Kyle Shanahan, who can’t seem to ever solve Schwartz’s defenses.
Shanahan isn’t alone this year. The Browns have given up the fewest yards through five games since 1971, and they rank No. 1 in DVOA and FPI’s defensive efficiency metric.
Despite the defense’s elite performance, Cleveland easily could have lost on Sunday — and in years past, probably would have. The 49ers had driven down the field for a potentially game-winning kick, but rookie Jake Moody missed the 41-yard attempt.
While that was a gutting way for San Francisco to drop its first game of the season, it also proved just how difficult it is to beat the Niners in the first place. During the first half, Deebo Samuel exited with an injury, followed in the second half by Christian McCaffrey. Left tackle Trent Williams also got hurt but returned. On the Browns’ go-ahead drive late in the game, Tashaun Gipson was hit with a questionable unnecessary roughness penalty that gave Cleveland a fresh set of downs. And after all that, they were a field goal away from winning the game.
Yet the Browns proved that the 49ers are mortal, when a mere week ago, they looked anything but. Now if the Browns could just get any consistency on offense, then they could be a real contender …
No. 1: The Jets rallied past the Eagles
When the 49ers suffered their first loss, the Eagles became the last unbeaten team in the NFL. For about 10 minutes.
Like the 49ers, the Eagles had a tough time overcoming key injuries and couldn’t get out of their own way. Philly came into the game without defensive difference-makers like Jalen Carter and Darius Slay. Others, like Reed Blankenship and Eli Ricks, joined them later. The biggest injury, however, was on the other side of the ball. Stalwart right tackle Lane Johnson exited in the first quarter, and with right guard Cam Jurgens already out, that side of the offensive line couldn’t handle the Jets’ pass rush.
Jalen Hurts was under pressure more often than he’s used to, and he made several uncharacteristically poor decisions. Hurts threw three interceptions, all in the second half, but none was more baffling than his final pick with just under two minutes left. With another first down, the Eagles could have run out the clock and escaped with a 14-12 win. Instead, Hurts channeled Mac Jones and threw the ball directly at an opposing player, Tony Adams, who set the Jets up for the game-winning score and their first ever win over the Eagles.
I should note two things here. First, the Jets were also down a couple of cornerbacks, including starters Sauce Gardner and D.J. Reed, and still harassed Hurts into his worst outing in two years. Second, Hurts wasn’t the only one screwing up for the Eagles. Jake Elliott missed a 37-yard field goal attempt, DeVonta Smith dropped a couple of balls, and D’Andre Swift fumbled.
But Hurts, so calm and collected most games, will get most of the blame. Really, though, the credit goes to Robert Saleh’s defense. As he said afterward, the Jets have “embarrassed” some of the best quarterbacks in the NFL this season. And like the Browns, that’s the reason they’re still a potential playoff team.
The 49ers and Eagles might have lost earlier than most of us expected them to, but every team loses at some point and they will be fine in the long run. This Sunday just wasn’t their day. That’s the NFL for ya.