NFL picks for a streaky Week 6
As divisions start to take shape, a few streaks are on the line this weekend.
Is Week 6 too early to talk about division races? Maybe, but I’m going to do it anyway. That’s because a few teams are already firmly entrenched atop their division and will likely stay there, barring terrible injury luck.
That includes one usual suspect: the Chiefs, who have won seven straight AFC West titles and are well on their way to No. 8. On Thursday night, they beat the Broncos for the 16th time in a row, which was also their 12th consecutive victory over a divisional rival.
But that list also includes a couple of new faces who haven’t claimed their division in 15 years (Dolphins) and, uh, double that (Lions).
Who will continue to separate themselves from the pack this weekend? Well, let’s take a look at the rest of Week 6, when all but two teams (Steelers, Packers) are set to play and a few other streaks are on the line. My picks are in bold, along with the odds as of Thursday night:
Ravens “at” Titans (+4)
49ers at Browns (+10)
Panthers at Dolphins (-13.5)
Colts at Jaguars (-4)
Vikings at Bears (+3)
Seahawks at Bengals (-3)
Saints at Texans (+1.5)
Commanders at Falcons (-2.5)
Patriots at Raiders (-3)
Eagles at Jets (+7)
Lions at Buccaneers (+3)
Cardinals at Rams (-7)
Giants at Bills (-14.5)
Cowboys at Chargers (+2)
Like last week, I had several tough choices to make and I’m not sure how I feel about them. Luckily, Christian’s Week 6 picks are available as a second opinion of sorts. Perhaps talking it out a little will make me feel more confident. So we’ll do just that.
The current division leaders that will stay on top
I’m not expecting much shakeup in the standings this week. In fact, a couple teams should widen their lead.
49ers over Browns
It seems like Deshaun Watson will miss at least another week with his shoulder injury, paving the way for backup P.J. Walker to get his first start of the season. Oh and lucky him, it’ll come against the 49ers’ relentless defense.
Walker has faced this defense recently; last year, he replaced Baker Mayfield late in the Panthers’ blowout loss to the Niners. In his one series, Walker went 5 of 6 for 60 yards (good!) and was sacked twice (bad!), against mostly backups.
If there’s any hope for the Browns, it’s on the other side of the ball. Their defense still ranks No. 1 in DVOA and has had a week off to rest. DC Jim Schwartz has also had the upper hand on Kyle Shanahan through the years. That, plus rainy weather on Sunday, means we might see a less efficient San Francisco offense for the first time this season.
At this point, however, I’d be surprised if the 49ers lost before November.
Dolphins over Panthers
This one could be a battle of losing streaks. The Panthers are the only winless team remaining this year. New Dolphins “vending machine” Chase Claypool, who was recently acquired from the Bears, hasn’t experienced a win firsthand in almost a year, when he was still with the Steelers. If he’s active on Sunday, that will probably change.
Jaguars over Colts
The Jags finally got their act together during their two-week stay in the UK, earning their first wins since Week 1 … against the Colts. Yes, we have our first rematch of the season!
This time, Indianapolis won’t look the same. Rookie quarterback Anthony Richardson played relatively well in his first start, but he has since gone on injured reserve. Gardner Minshew, a former Jacksonville quarterback, will start in his place and should be fine. Jonathan Taylor is also back, though he’s still finding his footing. While it’s possible the Jaguars left their mojo in London, I think we’re now seeing the version of this team that’s jelling again.
Eagles over Jets
Sometimes, I’ll see a headline on Apple News that reads something like “53 totally true facts that sound fake (but aren’t!)” and I usually don’t click it because I don’t want the algorithms to populate my feed with similar articles.
I doubt the following bit of information has ever appeared on one of those lists, but it should: The Jets have never beaten the Eagles. Perhaps even stranger is that these two longtime franchises have only met 12 times ever, all in the regular season.
I don’t expect this to be lucky No. 13 for the Jets. Jalen Hurts has found his rhythm the last two weeks and is fresh off his best game this season as a rusher, while New York’s defensive weakness so far has been dual-threat QBs. And somehow, I don’t think the solution to stopping the tush push is “11 kisses.”
Lions over Buccaneers
The Lions and Buccaneers are both sitting alone in first place in their respective divisions. This is unfamiliar territory for the Lions, who haven’t won a division title since 1993, when they resided in the now-defunct NFC Central. Meanwhile, the Bucs have won two consecutive NFC South championships, though they aren’t even the current favorites to win the division.
Tampa has played better than expected this season, as has Baker Mayfield, but I still don’t know how good the Bucs are. I feel confident that the Lions are good — enough so to pick them against the team wearing those beautiful Creamsicle jerseys.
The non-division leaders that will stay alive
Technically, every team is alive, but some divisions — AFC North, AFC South, and NFC South in particular — are more competitive than others.
Ravens over Titans
Maybe a trip overseas, in that crisp London air, will remedy the case of the dropsies that has infected the Ravens. If not, maybe Lamar Jackson can do what he did last time he played the Titans (and what Zack Moss did last week), and run all over them.
Rams over Cardinals
I’m a little surprised that the line is so big on this one. Weird things happen in the NFC West, and the Cardinals are just a couple of spots lower than the Rams in overall DVOA. But if we’re evaluating both teams based on common opponents, then the Rams have the clear edge. They lost by a combined 10 points to the 49ers and Bengals, while the Cards fell to both by a combined 33 points. It’s not an exact science, but that’s good enough for me.
Bills over Giants
I mean, the Bills could lose to the Giants. They traveled to London last week, lost the game and two more defensive players, and are back in New York having to deal with non-stories.
It’s unlikely, though, considering how big of a disaster the Giants have been this year. Even worse, they’ll probably be without Daniel Jones and left tackle Andrew Thomas. Saquon Barkley could be back in the lineup, so maybe if he’s in sound form and Tyrod Taylor is in revenge mode against his old team, the Giants will … cover.
Cowboys over Chargers
I dread this week’s Monday Night Football showdown so much. Not because I think it’ll be a bad game — LA’s offense vs. Dallas’ defense is a strength vs. strength matchup pitting former Cowboys OC Kellen Moore against his old colleague Dan Quinn. Instead, the narrative surrounding the loser will be unbearable.
Both need a win to avoid falling further behind in their division race, but I suppose I have more faith in the Cowboys to bounce back than I do for the Chargers not to shoot themselves in the foot.
The “just flip a coin” picks
A few of the teams below can put pressure on the division leaders — and potentially overtake them in the standings — with a win.
Bears over Vikings
I’m taking a big chance here that the Bears can 1) start a winning streak for the first time since 2021 and 2) beat an NFC North for the first time since 2021. But that’s how much I think the Vikings will miss Justin Jefferson, who will be out for the foreseeable future with a hamstring injury.
Bengals over Seahawks
The Bengals looked more like their old selves last week in Arizona, though they’ll face much stiffer NFC West competition in Week 6. I might have taken the Seahawks earlier in the week, until I saw that DK Metcalf needled Ja’Marr Chase, sorta-ish anyway. Chase took Metcalf’s comments in stride, but I choose to believe he’s silently seething and plotting his second straight 190-yard game.
Saints over Texans
Despite scoring 34 points in Week 5, the Saints continue to be inconsistent on offense. The same can’t be said for their defense, which shut down the Patriots in a historic way.
The Texans have had their own issues on offense. Although rookie QB C.J. Stroud looks and sounds like a veteran, Houston’s run game hasn’t been able to get going — its 3.0 yards/carry average ranks second-to-last in the league. Not coincidentally, the Texans have only scored touchdowns on 35.3 percent of their red zone trips, which ranks No. 29. They’re aware they need to improve in both areas, but it’ll be extra difficult on Sunday. New Orleans will be the best defense they’ve gone up against since Week 1 against the Ravens, the Texans’ worst loss of the season.
Commanders over Falcons
To me, the Commanders and Falcons are two of the most .500 teams in the NFL, never dipping too far below that winning percentage or rising too far above it. That means the 2-3 Commanders are due for a win, while the 3-2 Falcons are due for a loss.
And here’s some good news for Sam Howell, the most-sacked quarterback in the NFL right now: Atlanta’s defense has only recorded five sacks all season.
Patriots over Raiders
The Raiders are coming off their first win against the Packers since 1987. The Patriots are coming off two drubbings in a row, and Bill Belichick has never beaten Josh McDaniels in a head-to-head battle. At the same time, Mac Jones is in the midst of the worst stretch of his Pats career, which could be nearing its end if he doesn’t turn things around. Logically, I probably shouldn’t pick New England.
But this is a must-win game in the worst of ways. The Patriots are 1-4, with dates against the Bills and Dolphins up next. It’s inconceivable to think a Belichick team could head into November with a 1-7 record. And since I don’t feel optimistic about their chances the following two weeks, then I have to call for the slight upset here. Who knows, Jakobi Meyers, now with the Raiders, could lateral the ball and get it picked off for a game-winning touchdown — again.
For his sake, I hope not, but if we get anything even a fraction as entertaining as that play, I’ll be happy.