Get your kicks on Week 4 picks
Will Tom Brady beat the Patriots for the first time in his career? Will Aaron Rodgers earn his first regular season win over the Steelers? Will the Lions get, *gasp*, a win?
Perhaps inspired by this year’s Friends special, the NFL is staging several reunions between coaches and their former quarterbacks in Week 4. First up was Joe Burrow facing off against one of his college coaches, Urban Meyer, on Thursday night. Sunday will give us three more, though only one received the Adele treatment:
(Are we sure this isn’t an SNL skit?)
The question in these circumstances is: How much does familiarity really matter? Bill Belichick thinks, much to Bruce Arians’ annoyance, that Tom Brady is in the same offense now as he was when he played for the Patriots. Does that give Belichick an edge?
This season is the first time in Frank Reich’s head coaching career that he hasn’t had Jacoby Brissett as an option in short-yardage and Hail Mary situations. This week, Reich, who knows Brissett’s strengths and weaknesses better than almost anyone, will see his former backup in the starting lineup when the Colts visit the Dolphins.
Kevin Stefanski parlayed his success as Kirk Cousins’ QB coach and then his OC into a job with the Browns. Under Stefanski, Cousins put up the best season of his career in 2019. Does Stefanski know anything about Cousins — like a tell — that doesn’t necessarily show up on tape?
The truth is this kind of intimate knowledge about one player probably doesn’t affect the outcome all that much. This is the NFL — everyone watches film and has studied the opposing quarterback meticulously.
We’re somewhat split on who will come out on top in these Week 4 battles, the coach or his one-time quarterback:
Now let’s discuss how we decided on some of these matchups, whether it’s a showdown between old friends or not.
Sarah’s picks
Last week, I hemmed and hawed about several of my picks and had this nagging feeling that I was headed for a disastrous record. Instead, I went 13-3, my best week yet. I benefited from three close endings going my way.
Once again, I was indecisive this week and enter the weekend doubting some of my choices. Based on what happened in Week 3, maybe that’s a positive sign … or maybe I’m due for those close endings to go the other way. (One thing is for sure, though: Those nail-biters don’t seem to be going anywhere. The NFL had 10 games decided at the last second through three weeks, and now that number is up to 11.)
After the Bengals’ comeback win over the Jaguars Thursday night, I’m 1-0 so far in Week 4. Here’s how I’m, sometimes hesitantly, feeling about the other 15 matchups (my picks in bold):
Washington at Falcons
Texans at Bills
Lions at Bears
Panthers at Cowboys
Colts at Dolphins
Browns at Vikings
Giants at Saints
Titans at Jets
Chiefs at Eagles
Cardinals at Rams
Seahawks at 49ers
Ravens at Broncos
Steelers at Packers
Bucs at Patriots
Raiders at Chargers
I’m feeling most confident in these picks (Last week: 3-0)
The Bills looked like the most complete team in the AFC last week in their thrashing of Washington. Josh Allen was in MVP form, while the defense forced three turnovers and allowed Washington to convert on just two of its 11 third-down attempts. Davis Mills wasn’t terrible in his first start for the Texans — an accomplishment for any rookie quarterback this year — but playing in Buffalo will be a tall task for the 22-year-old.
The Chiefs are under .500 for the first time since Patrick Mahomes became their starting quarterback, but both of their losses have come in the waning minutes of the fourth quarter. They have a great chance to rebound Sunday against an Eagles team coming off a short week — and a beatdown courtesy of the Cowboys.
The Steelers are also trying to bounce back from two straight losses, but they’ll have to do it against a tougher opponent — and with a quarterback who would never be mistaken for Mahomes. Although Aaron Rodgers’ lone Super Bowl win came against the Steelers, they are the only team he has never beaten in the regular season as a starting quarterback. More than 10 years after that championship game, Rodgers is still playing like an MVP while Roethlisberger is playing like Rodgers’ grandpa.
I’m feeling least confident in these picks (Last week 2-1)
It’s been a minute since I’ve felt confident picking any NFC West matchup. Last year, when the 49ers’ injury situation was historically bad, they still went 3-3 in the division. Even Josh Rosen, in his rookie season with the Cardinals, managed to win two games against NFC West competition.
While we have two NFC West contests on deck Sunday, I’m only going to focus on Seahawks-49ers. Both teams are desperate, in their own way, for a win in Week 4. The 49ers came back to take a late lead over the Packers last week, then foolishly gave Aaron Rodgers 37 seconds to rip their hearts out. (The audience, as if watching a horror movie, could see it coming and couldn’t stop it no matter how loudly we yelled at the screen not to run upstairs.) The Seahawks have dropped two in a row and don’t have an easy opponent until a month from now when they host the Jaguars. This is as close to a must-win game as it gets for a 1-2 team.
Anything can happen when these two rivals take the field, but I went with the 49ers because the Seattle defense is currently broken … and ranks near the bottom in third-down conversions, which is apparently when Jimmy Garoppolo shines:
Who knew?
The Vikings finally played a complete game last week, leading to their first win of the season. They’re back home for the second straight week and to meet another 2020 playoff team: the Browns, who haven’t fared well against experienced quarterbacks this season (they only took the lead over the Texans in Week 2 after Tyrod Taylor left with an injury). Despite Myles Garrett’s record-setting day in Week 3, the Cleveland defense won’t be able to replicate its nine-sack performance against a more veteran line and quarterback. I think the final score will be close, but the Browns are the better overall team, so I sided with them in the end.
I always thought Jacoby Brissett deserved more credit than he got during his tenure with the Colts. I was beginning to doubt my own opinion last week when I saw his lackluster play against the Raiders … until he decided to turn it on late in the fourth quarter and nearly won the game by himself. Even though the Colts are too talented to fall to 0-4, I’m counting on Brissett to carry that momentum, and his aggressive play, against his old team — and get a little revenge in the process.
Why I made these upset picks (Last week: 2-0)
If my mom is reading this, she’s going to immediately send me a text and scold me for daring to put any faith in the Lions. I know, I know!
The Bears aren’t a worse team than the Lions, no matter who starts at quarterback, and maybe there’s recency bias in this upset pick. But screw it, I’m taking a chance here.
The Bears are back home, where they already have a win this season, and will face a winless Detroit team that is also fresh off a discouraging loss. The Lions should have beaten the Ravens last week, if Justin Tucker didn’t have such a monster leg and if they weren’t cursed to be the Lions. The Bears suffered a humiliating loss that threatened to damage Justin Fields’ body and psyche and left me wondering if Matt Nagy was actively trying to get fired.
For me, it comes down to coaching. The Lions’ no-quit work ethic is a reflection of Dan Campbell, which suggests that they’re taking what he says to heart. He has them believing in a real way, not in a cosplaying Ted Lasso way. I don’t get any sense of that from the Bears with Nagy. Not that I blame them.
As I’m writing this, the Broncos are a one-point underdog against the Ravens. That could change before Sunday, depending on Lamar Jackson’s injury status. I would have taken the Ravens if I had made my game picks earlier in the week, because the Broncos haven’t faced a team anywhere near the Ravens’ level yet and Denver’s injuries are starting to mount.
But Jackson’s back issue was ultimately what made me flip to the Broncos. Jackson is taking more hits than any other quarterback this year and more hits than he’s used to at this point in the season. He won’t enjoy any respite in Denver. The defense can bring the pressure and even if Jackson’s weapons can get open, he might have a difficult time connecting with them. The Broncos’ secondary is allowing a league-best 60.6 passer rating to opposing quarterbacks, per PFF.
Of course, the game is at Mile High, so Tucker could always break his own record and kick a 70-yard field goal as time expires.
Christian’s picks
Whew. I felt very dicey about those Lions and Broncos picks but seeing Sarah, she of the 13-3 record last week, struggling but leaning to the same side makes me feel better. This is probably the toughest slate since Week 1 to predict, and Week 1 was a crapshoot since we only had three barely relevant exhibition games on which to base our picks.
The theme of the week was getting winless teams off the schneid. I mean, not you Giants or Jets, but the fun winless teams. Or the sorta-good winless teams. One fun team, and one team that should be good but probably not all that fun. That means the kneecap-biting Lions and extremely Carson Wentz-ian Colts are both shedding their “0” en route to merely bad seasons rather than the depth of gridiron despair.
Let’s pick.
Washington at Falcons
Texans at Bills
Lions at Bears
Panthers at Cowboys
Colts at Dolphins
Browns at Vikings
Giants at Saints
Titans at Jets
Chiefs at Eagles
Cardinals at Rams
Seahawks at 49ers
Ravens at Broncos
Steelers at Packers
Buccaneers at Patriots
Raiders at Chargers
Pick I like the most (2-1)
My Team Teddy blindness has me supporting a Broncos team that hasn’t had a winning record since 2016 over a Ravens team that hasn’t had a losing record in the same span. Denver isn’t as good as its record (3-0) or point differential (+50, tied for best in the league) suggest; those wins have come against the Giants, Jets, and Jaguars, all of whom will have very nice draft picks next spring.
And yet, I look at a defense that has thoroughly dumbfounded quarterbacks (albeit bad ones) and see Lamar Jackson at a crisis point. His 86.4 passer rating ranks 25th among 33 qualified players this fall. He has very little tailback help and it doesn’t look like this will be the week Rashod Bateman provides backup. If Denver can turn this into a rockfight, the Broncos go to 4-0.
Toughest game to pick (2-1)
Lions-Bears. My god, the possibilities. One of these teams had one net yard of passing offense last week, and it wasn’t the one where Kalif Raymond and Quintez Cephus are the top wide receivers. Matt Nagy doesn’t know who his quarterback will be, but he does know he’ll have to operate an offense tailor made for a late-30s Philip Rivers. If Dan Campbell wins the first game of his coaching career here, I pray he gets a Gatorade bath, only because I want to see him ritualistically rip apart the players responsible on national television.
Detroit 3, Chicago 2.
Upset pick I like the most (3-0)
Colts over Dolphins. Jacoby Brissett got hurt midway through the 2019 season and has spent the following two(ish) years regressing. Last week the Raiders handed him a 14-0 first-quarter lead and he allowed that to become a 31-28 overtime loss. While he deserves credit for a stellar two-minute drill to tie the game with two seconds left, he still leads an offense with one passing touchdown this season and a 28th-place ranking in DVOA. This feels like a perfect opportunity for the Colts’ underperforming defense to get back on track and for Carson Wentz to hobble his way to his first victory in horseshoes.
And hey, if you’re interested in some college football lines, could I maybe point you in this direction? Please ignore all the descriptive language used for UConn-Vandy, I had thoughts.