NFL Week 3: OK, now we can jump to conclusions

It's not too soon to know the AFC West will be a slugfest, the Cardinals are an adventure, and the Rams are for real. Plus, who landed on the naughty list?

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Sep 27, 2021

I always like to preach caution about overreacting early in a season or, for that matter, early in a player’s career. (It was not a banner week for rookie quarterbacks, but it’s way too soon to draw conclusions about how any of their careers will turn out.)

That said, at this point last year, seven of the eight teams that sat atop their division ended up winning their division. The only one who didn’t? The Bucs — and I’d say everything worked out just fine for them.

So even though we’re still more than three months away from the end of the regular season, there are assumptions we can start to make about how the rest of the year will unfold. Let’s take a look at five early-season developments that are likely here to stay:

1. The AFC West is gonna be a battle all season

For the first in the Patrick Mahomes era, the Chiefs are in fourth place in the AFC West. I don’t expect that to last — Kansas City probably won’t turn the ball over four times every game — but I also can’t simply presume they’ll win the division for the sixth straight year. They couldn’t even hand the Chargers a typical “rip your beating heart out of your chest and then stomp it on the ground” loss, even though the Chargers almost appeared willing to let it happen.

So far this season, the Chiefs’ flaws on defense have shown no signs of improvement, and opponents are finding ways to limit Mahomes’ big plays on offense. The other three AFC West teams aren’t intimidated by the Chiefs anymore. They’ve all taken steps to get better so they can challenge KC’s recent dominance, and it’s paying off for them in different ways.

If you’re looking for hope for the Chiefs, there’s plenty of that available too. They still have Mahomes and Travis Kelce. Every game they’ve played has been competitive. Four of their next eight matchups come against NFC East teams.

As for their rivals, the Broncos’ injuries are starting to pile up. The Raiders perfectly epitomize their new city — flashy, chaotic, not to be trusted. The Chargers … well, see: their entire existence.

But make no mistake: the Chiefs will be in a dogfight all season to retain the division crown. And if they do, then it’ll be because they earned it.

2. The Steelers are not a real threat in the AFC North

The further we get from the Steelers’ season-opening win over the Bills, the more of a fluke it appears to be. (Christian warned us about that after Week 1.) The Steelers’ biggest concerns heading into the season — Ben Roethlisberger’s diminishing play, the shoddily rebuilt offensive line, the pass rush outside of T.J. Watt — have all reared their ugly heads in the last two weeks.

Roethlisberger looks more washed than my hands in the past 18 months. His arm strength continues to wan (32 of his 38 pass attempts were within the 0- to 10-yard range), his passer rating (79.0) and QBR (35.7) are nearing career lows, and his decision-making is not exactly sharp:

Charles Robinson @CharlesRobinson

4th and 10 in a compacted red zone, probably not the ideal time for #Steelers Roethlisberger to check to a running back in the flat, six yards behind the line of scrimmage.

And it’s only September! How’s he going to perform once he starts racking up the mileage this season?

The new, not improved offensive line is paving the way for the league’s worst rushing attack (3.2 ypc) and allowed its aging Mr. Potato Head of a quarterback to get sacked four times on Sunday. On the other side of the ball, the pass rush foundered again while Watt was out with a groin injury. It failed to register a sack … against the *Bengals,* who hadn’t won in Pittsburgh since 2015.

Normally, you could expect Mike Tomlin to right the ship; the Steelers have never finished with a losing record in his 15-year tenure. Getting a healthy Watt and JuJu Smith-Schuster back in the lineup will help … but only so much. Pittsburgh’s next four games are arduous — at Green Bay, vs. Denver, vs. Seattle, at Cleveland. So are its last four games — vs. Tennessee, at Kansas City, vs. Cleveland, at Baltimore.

Judging by what we knew before season and what we’ve seen so far, the AFC North will likely come down to the Ravens vs. Browns. The Bengals are competent now too, which means that if the Steelers can’t figure out a way to turn things around in a hurry, they could be facing a last-place finish in their division for the first time since 1988.

3. Get used to the roller coaster ride that is the Saints and Cardinals

The Cardinals are 3-0 and are winning games they normally would’ve lost in the first few years of the Kliff Kingsbury era. After surviving the Vikings last week, they came back to beat the Jaguars Sunday. On the surface, that isn’t an impressive feat, but the way they did it showed a resiliency we hadn’t seen much of in recent years. The Cardinals overcame both a nine-point deficit late in the third quarter and the embarrassment of allowing a kick-6:

NFL @NFL

A 68-YARD FG ATTEMPT TURNS INTO A 109-YARD RETURN TD. MAYHEM IN JACKSONVILLE. 📺: #AZvsJAX on FOX 📱: NFL app

(Is that what Urban Meyer meant when he said the NFL was like playing Alabama each week?)

But the Cardinals also make it much harder on themselves than necessary, due to turnovers, a defense that struggles to stop the run, Kingsbury’s questionable decisions, and other miscues.

Kyler Murray and his array of offensive weapons can deliver electric moments on a dime, but until they can play more consistent football, “weird day” will probably be a familiar refrain any time they play.

Similarly, you never know what you’re going to get from the Saints each week. They seem to have taken on the erratic form of their new starting quarterback Jameis Winston. Their season so far: blowing out the Packers, getting blown out by the Panthers, blowing out the Patriots.

This week, the Saints were back to the team they had planned to be all season, one carried by a strong defense, reliable special teams, and a steady if slightly risk-averse offense. That mostly worked out against the Patriots; Winston was interception-free for the second time this season, but his inner Jameis still made an appearance:

New Orleans Saints @Saints

First career TD for @CallawayMarquez 🙌 #NOvsNE | 📺: FOX

There’s only so much Sean Payton can do in the face of “God’s plan.” Just enjoy Good Jameis when you get him, and know that Bad Jameis will pop in every now and then. The Saints will follow suit.

4. The Rams are a legitimate Super Bowl contender

OK, this is not exactly news. But at least we got some confirmation after their convincing win over Tom Brady and the Bucs.

Entering the season, the Rams had a few questions to answer: Is Matthew Stafford enough of an upgrade at QB to make a major difference? Would the top-ranked defense suffer from the loss of DC Brandon Staley? How much do they really need a running game?

So far the answers are yes, nope, not much.

In Week 3, they got to prove as much against their biggest test, the defending Super Bowl champs. Stafford was near perfect, the defense relentlessly pressured Brady, and the Rams’ ground game didn’t do a lot (and didn’t need to).

There’s a lot of season remaining, and the Rams still play in one of the toughest divisions in the NFL. Rams fans should not start planning their trip to Super Bowl 56 in … uh, in LA … just yet. But they’ve justified all the buzz they garnered in the preseason and solidified themselves as one of this year’s Super Bowl favorites.

This seems like a good omen too:

ESPN @espn

Matthew Stafford has 9 Pass TD, tied with Kurt Warner (1999) for the most ever by a Rams QB in their first three games of a season. That year, Warner won MVP and the Rams won the Super Bowl 👀

(The eyes emoji, as is the case in 99 percent of all eyes emoji usage, is unnecessary.)

5. Myles Garrett is coming for that Defensive Player of the Year Award

Last season, Garrett was leading the NFL in sacks, forced fumbles, and fumble recoveries through the first nine weeks. Then, he contracted Covid and was not the same menace on the field when he returned (his asthma was a contributing factor to his difficult battle with the virus). Garrett later admitted how disappointing it was to drop out of the Defensive Player of the Year race, but based on his play in 2021, he’s trying to make up for it.

After setting a Browns franchise record with 4.5 sacks against the overwhelmed Bears offensive line, Garrett now leads the NFL in sacks. Justin Fields is no slow poke, either, and Garrett raced by his “protection” and caught him like a lion picking off a zebra:

NFL @NFL

MYLES GARRETT. 4.5 SACKS. 📺: #CHIvsCLE on FOX 📱: NFL app

Garrett has more help this year, thanks to the presence of Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah and Jadeveon Clowney, and opposing teams can’t double team everyone (though, idk, maybe the Bears *should have* with Garrett? Just an idea!) But it’s clear that Garrett plans to keep feasting all season … with his eyes on the DPOTY prize. — SH

Christian’s shit list

Here are all the things I hated in Week 3

The Bears, steadfastly refusing to roll out Justin Fields. Fields was sacked on an absurd 31 percent of his dropbacks Sunday by a Cleveland team that was mostly content to rush four and confuse the rookie quarterback downfield.

Fields could have mitigated this if head coach Matt Nagy opted in to his dual-threat QB strengths and allowed him to throw on the run — hell, he had a wonderful example of this across the sideline in how Kevin Stefanski utilizes Baker Mayfield. Instead, Chicago treated Fields as if he’s Andy Dalton and the Bears’ rigidity was rewarded with one net passing yard on the day.

The Lions, fantasy football anathema. Quintez Cephus and T.J. Hockenson in Week 2: 16 targets, 12 catches, 129 yards, and two touchdowns. Quintez Cephus and T.J. Hockenson in Week 3: Three targets, three catches, 18 yards, and zero touchdowns. Congratulations on your 100 percent catch rate, I guess?

Oh, also, they lost on a 66-yard field goal as time expired because the universe demands Detroit find new ways to lose after a century of knowing little else.

The Washington Football Team, who cannot stop anyone. Washington won the NFC East last season despite having the aerial power of a 1920s service academy. It got by with Alex Smith throwing for 2.6 yards per pass because the defense was an absolute unit. And then it selected a linebacker in the top 20 picks of this year’s draft and spent $40 million to free cornerback William Jackson from Cincinnati.

Somehow it’s gotten much worse. The Football Team has given up 72 points the last two weeks, getting thumped by Josh Allen (understandable) and Daniel Jones (oh god no) en route to a 1-2 start. Just getting Ryan Fitzpatrick back won’t fix things here; Ron Rivera and defensive coordinator Jack Del Rio have to figure exactly how things went so pear-shaped.

The Steelers, whose passing offense is exactly as bad as we thought it could be. Ben Roethlisberger threw for 318 yards Sunday. This would be impressive if he didn’t need 58 attempts to get there. Nearly one-third of that output went rookie tailback Najee Harris’ way, which is great news if you’ve got him rostered in fantasy and an absolute nightmare for any Pittsburgh fans hoping to see an inkling of downfield theatrics in 2021. I do not know how this team beat the Bills.

(Harris, by the way, rushed for 2.9 yards per carry because the Steelers’ offensive line can’t get anything right.)

The Jets (ALL). Zach Wilson has zero touchdowns and six interceptions in his last two games. The team’s top rusher has topped out at 24 yards in two of three weeks to date. At least C.J. Mosley still hits people like he’s trying to perform an exorcism.