NFL Week 3 picks for the unbeaten and winless teams
This is a pivotal week for those hoping to get to 3-0 and those hoping to avoid an 0-3 start.
Any team that starts the season at 3-0 isn’t guaranteed a playoff spot. I mean, it’s a 17-game season. It would be pretty weird if that were true! Even so, around three-fourths of all squads that jump out to a 3-0 record eventually make it to the postseason. Last season, it was only 60 percent: the Raiders, Rams, and Cardinals booked a trip to the playoffs, while the Broncos and Panthers finished with losing records.
Similarly, franchises aren’t doomed if they fall into an 0-3 hole, but their odds of playing meaningful January football are slight (about 6 percent). None of the five 0-3 teams from 2021 beat those odds; the Lions, Giants, Jaguars, Colts, and Jets missed out on the playoffs. In fact, it’s been four years since anyone has completed the 0-3 turnaround — the 2018 Texans, who got their first win in Week 4 and went on to claim the AFC South crown.
So Week 3 is a crossroads, of sorts, for all the undefeated and winless teams in the league. Last week, I decided to concentrate more on the gambling aspect with my picks, to mixed results (I hope everyone took one piece of advice and didn’t bet on my predictions). This week, I’m going to focus solely on who can get their first victory in 2022 and who will stay perfect. But as per usual, if you’d like picks for every matchup, check out Christian’s weekly column at FTW. He’s 1-0 so far, thanks to the Browns’ Thursday night win over the Steelers.
First, let’s look at the latest odds, as of Friday afternoon, from DraftKings (the favored team is in bold):
Chiefs at Colts (+5.5)
Eagles at Commanders (+6.5)
Bills at Dolphins (+5)
Bengals at Jets (+6)
Ravens at Patriots (+3)
Lions at Vikings (-6)
Raiders at Titans (+2)
Saints at Panthers (+2.5)
Texans at Bears (-3)
Jaguars at Chargers (-7)
Packers at Buccaneers (-1)
Rams at Cardinals (+3.5)
Falcons at Seahawks (-1)
49ers at Broncos (+1.5)
Cowboys at Giants (-1)
Two things immediately jump out: 1) There are a lot of home underdogs again this week, and 2) Overall, this slate is tough to gauge. No matter what, though, fewer 1.000 and .000 teams will remain once Week 3 is in the books.
Who will (and won’t) make it to 3-0
Each 2-0 team faces a big test in Week 3, which means I’m not overly confident in these picks. But I do know one thing: at least one will enter Week 4 without a loss. That’s because one matchup pits two 2-0 divisional foes against each other.
The battle of the unbeatens: Bills over Dolphins
Well, this one has the potential for fireworks. The Bills, who have scored more points than any other team this season, have mowed down their competition so far. The Dolphins, who boast the second-best offense in DVOA, have been as exciting as Mike McDaniel promised they’d be.
The Bills are the more complete team, and if anyone can slow down the Dolphins, it’s the No. 1 ranked defense (in DVOA). I still don’t know if Buffalo can win a close game, which it hasn’t done in more than a year, but I guess it doesn’t matter as long as the Bills keep winning by 3+ scores each week.
The battle of the 2020 Philly QBs: Eagles over Commanders
Carson Wentz already has a win over his former Eagles coach, Doug Pederson. Can he now get one against his former team and the quarterback who usurped him? Sure! Will he, though? I’m saying no. I’m impressed with how Philadelphia has started this season, while Jalen Hurts appears to have taken another step forward:
I think he gets the best of Wentz once again.
The favorite will win, but it might be closer than you think: Chiefs over Colts
Every season it seems like the Colts take about a month until they finally start to play to their capability. I refuse to believe they’re as god-awful as they looked last week in Jacksonville, which I’ve come to accept is some kind of cursed land for them.
Indy could get Shaquille Leonard and Michael Pittman Jr. back for its first home game of the season, and that would give both sides of the ball a much-needed boost. Altogether, it gives the 0-1-1 Colts a perfect chance to rebound … if they weren’t facing the Chiefs.
Kansas City has been really good this season — Super Bowl contender good — against quality opponents too. The Chiefs have shown no signs of early-season struggles like they had in 2021, and I’m reluctant to bet against them, particularly this Sunday.
The favorite will lose for the first time this season: Packers over Bucs
I don’t know what to make of the Packers and Buccaneers right now. Is Green Bay following the same script as last year, i.e. getting blown out in Week 1 and then barely breaking a sweat the rest of the season? Will the Bucs be back to their dominating selves again once the offense starts to jell?
TBD. I do know that Tampa’s offensive issues probably won’t be fixed when Tom Brady is dealing with a finger injury, Mike Evans is serving his one-game suspension, and Chris Godwin and Julio Jones are likely to be out again.
Even though the Bucs can ride their defense to a win again, I’m taking the Packers and their strong running game in a slight upset.
The most unlikely team to make it to 3-0: Giants over Cowboys
The Giants haven’t had much luck against the Cowboys in the last five years. They’re just 1-9 since 2017, with that only win coming while Dak Prescott was out with an injury.
Well, Prescott is out again this week, and I don’t buy Jerry Jones’ spin that Cooper Rush has it in him to create a QB controversy, even if Dallas did upset the Bengals last week. Plus, this version of the Giants has a competent head coach and an offense that keeps the defense on its toes. New York is the weakest of the undefeated teams, but it has enough offensive weapons to stay unbeaten for at least another week. Or two, since the Giants play the Bears in Week 4.
Who will (and won’t) fall to 0-3
Last year, the Lions didn’t get in the win column until Week 13. I don’t think we’ll have to wait that long this year for the final winless team to get off the schneid, but at least one won’t earn a victory in Week 4. That’s because …
The battle of the winless: Titans over Raiders
The 0-2 Raiders have played better, overall, than the 0-2 Titans. Really, though, both should be 1-1 and would have been had they not let a big lead get away from them. This week, one will have to come away with a W (except in the event of a tie, which we shouldn’t expect with the Raiders).
This is a gut feeling, and one that can’t be measured: I think the Titans are more mentally resilient than the Raiders, and thus, are more likely to bounce back after a butt-kicking like the one the Bills gave them on Monday night. Even if I think the Raiders are the superior team.
The favorite will win and cover: Saints over Panthers
These two NFC South rivals are fairly evenly matched, with good defenses and offenses that haven’t quite put it all together yet. The Panthers could easily be 2-0 rather than 0-2, and their losing streak will have to end at some point. But Baker Mayfield hasn’t shown, this year or last, that he’s ready to carve up a defense like New Orleans’ (and seeing how decent the Cleveland offense has looked with Jacoby Brissett at quarterback, I don’t think the Browns were the problem last season).
Despite uneven play from Jameis Winston and Co., I trust the Saints a bit more and think they can win by a field goal.
The favorite will win for the first time this season: Bengals over Jets
The Jets are coming off a thrilling comeback win over the Browns, while the Bengals have stumbled their way to 0-2 after losing in OT to the Steelers and on the road to the Cooper Rush-led Cowboys. Still, Cincinnati is too talented to stay among the winless dregs. This is where we should finally catch a glimpse again of the Joe Burrow and high-powered Bengals offense that we saw last season.
The game that is guaranteed to get weird: Falcons over Seahawks, I guess
Both the Falcons and Seahawks are unpredictable and rarely do what I anticipate they’re going to do. Because the Falcons could be sitting at 2-0 if not for some extreme Falcons shenanigans in consecutive weeks, I’ll reluctantly pick them and hope that the internet/fantasy football owners successfully bullied Arthur Smith into using Kyle Pitts more.
And two more are still waiting for the first win
The Colts and Texans aren’t in danger of dropping to 0-3 because, well, they tied in Week 1. But both are still looking for their first win of the season. As I mentioned above, I don’t think the Colts will end their skid Sunday because they have the misfortune of playing the Chiefs. The Texans will meet a much more vulnerable opponent, however.
Don’t expect much offense: Bears over Texans
Through the first two weeks, the 2022 Texans closely resemble the 2021 Texans: They’re more competitive than you’d guess, but they don’t quite have enough playmakers to finish the job.
The Bears are also lacking playmakers — and a passing game. This seems like a best opportunity for Houston to notch its first victory, and it could very well be. But I’m hopeful that the Bears, back at home in dry conditions, decide to open up the playbook and let Justin Fields throw the ball more than the mere 28 attempts he has so far this season. I doubt there will be many points scored — both teams have totaled just 29 points through two games — but someone is nearly assured of a win … unless there’s another tie.