Week 2 picks to not bet on
Let's lean into the gambling side this week ... for fun, not for real money.
Week 1 was fun and a nice blend of predictable and unpredictable results, as I expected. The rest of the predictions I offered last week? Uh, less good. My apologies to Carson Wentz and Geno Smith.
It’s ironic that the best advice I gave with my Week 1 picks involved gambling, because I’m not a gambler, except for the one time when I was around 22 and I went to a casino in Mt. Pleasant, Michigan, with my brother and grandma. My grandma gave me $20 to gamble with, and once I lost that money (in probably 20 minutes), I decided I was done. I found the experience very boring and left smelling like cigarette smoke, despite not being a smoker. That life just isn’t for me.
Intellectually, though, I understand the appeal of betting which team is going to cover and which team could pull off an upset. I’m hardly a savant, but I’m going to lean into the gambling aspect a little with my picks this week, just to see what happens. If I had written this newsletter a day earlier, I would’ve picked the Chiefs to beat the Chargers but not cover, and that’s exactly what happened on Thursday night. So I’m 1-0 in my head, but 0-0 officially because I never publicly stated that opinion.
Let’s take a look at the other Week 2 matchups and the odds, courtesy of DraftKings as of Friday afternoon (the favored team is in bold):
Dolphins at Ravens (-3.5)
Jets at Browns (-6.5)
Buccaneers at Saints (+2.5)
Colts at Jaguars (+3)
Patriots at Steelers (+2.5)
Panthers at Giants (-1.5)
Commanders at Lions (-1.5)
Falcons at Rams (-10)
Seahawks at 49ers (-9.5)
Bengals at Cowboys (+7)
Texans at Broncos (-10)
Cardinals at Raiders (-5)
Bears at Packers (-10)
Titans at Bills (-10)
Vikings at Eagles (-2.5)
A few notes before I get to my picks: Even though I’m taking a slightly more odds-heavy approach this time, I still will not weigh in on every game. Once again, though, Christian has his straight-up picks listed at FTW (and he’s officially 1-0 going into the weekend).
And finally, please do not bet real money on what I write below. I’m certainly not! This is mostly just an experiment for me, and next week, I could try something else entirely. Now let’s get to it.
The return of the double-digit upset?
Last season, we witnessed eight double-digit upsets, the highest number in 25 years. If that trend continues into 2022, then it could start this weekend. After there were no double-digit point spreads in Week 1, there are four in Week 2, plus one more two-score spread.
I think it’s somewhat likely that one of those five underdogs pulls off an upset, but I’m not feeling confident enough in any of them to outright pick one. Instead, I’m going out on a bit of a different limb and saying that only one of those favorites will cover.
The big favorite that wins by 10+ points: Rams over Falcons
The Rams and Falcons are both licking their wounds after a difficult Week 1 loss. The defending champs were manhandled in the second half by the Bills; the never-been-champs gave the game away against their most hated rival and then their coach shrugged it off:
It’s dangerous trying to predict what the Falcons will do, but the Rams will be well rested and, let’s face it, are more mentally tough. I think they’ll shake off their double-digit loss and hand the Falcons one of their own.
The big favorite that wins, but expect the under: 49ers over Seahawks
The Seahawks sitting alone atop the NFC West hasn’t been an unusual scenario in the last decade. While we may only be one week into the season, that outcome wasn’t supposed to happen at all this year.
It probably won’t last much longer. The 49ers, fresh off sloppy loss to the Bears in rainy conditions, are favored by more than a touchdown against the Seahawks. I think San Francisco can rebound this week, even if Seahawks-49ers matchups (like all Seahawks games) tend to go off the rails. The Niners will be at home, and Seattle is without the extra motivation of playing against Russell Wilson this week. George Kittle, who is practicing again, could also be available this Sunday, which would be a much-needed boost for Trey Lance.
However, the rain keeps following the 49ers around, and that gives me a bit of pause:
Because of the weather and San Francisco’s latest running back problem, I do not predict the home team will cover. That’s hardly a bold statement, so I’ll take a bigger risk. This is projected to be a fairly low-scoring affair, with the over/under set at 40.5, and I say that the two teams will combine to score fewer than that. It has the makings to be a 17-10, 17-13 kinda game.
The big favorite that isn’t doomed to repeat history: Bills over Titans
Last year, the Bills were 0-5 in one-score games. On the other hand, the Titans were 6-2, including a wild 34-31 win over the Bills on Monday Night Football.
They meet again on Monday night, this time in Buffalo before a rowdy crowd that has been waiting all offseason to cheer on the Super Bowl favorites. It’s too soon to know if the Bills’ misfortune in close matchups is behind them; they dominated the Rams after the season’s kickoff game was tied at halftime. Similarly, one one-point loss is not enough evidence to declare that the Titans no longer have lady luck on their side. Still, their collapse against the Giants isn’t exactly a good omen for a tougher opponent this week.
Last time, Derrick Henry ran all over Buffalo but the Bills 1) have a stouter rush defense this year (thanks, Von Miller) and 2) Tennessee no longer has A.J. Brown as a receiving threat. The Titans have a strong coaching staff that can get the players to put last week in the rearview mirror, so while I believe the Bills will win, I don’t think they’ll cover. In fact, I will go ahead and call it: This will be their first one-score win since they beat the Colts in the playoffs 20 months ago.
Time to end some losing streaks
Without looking it up, which team would you guess has the longest active losing streak in the NFL?
Answer: the Panthers, who are on an eight-game losing streak dating back to last season. The Broncos are right behind them at five games, but I think that ends this week against the Texans. I’m not here to talk about that kind of losing streak, though.
Instead, there are two teams this week who face what has been an Achilles’ heel for them. In the NFC South, the Buccaneers have dropped seven straight games against the Saints during the regular season (though they have a playoff win in the middle of that skid). In the AFC South, the Colts haven’t left Jacksonville victorious in eight years; their last win in Duval came in Week 3 of the 2014 season.
History says this isn’t a smart declaration to make, but I’ll do it anyway: Both losing streaks end this week!
The team that ends a losing streak and covers: Bucs over Saints
The Bucs looked a little disjointed on offense last week, but the defense came to play in an easy win over the Cowboys. Meanwhile, the Saints wore down a gassed Falcons defense and escaped with a win. Jameis Winston and Co. will need to get the New Orleans offense rolling much earlier, against a more challenging opponent, to pull the upset.
Even though the Saints still have Dennis Allen, coach Sean Payton isn’t around and he was a big reason New Orleans could so often one-up the Bucs (and Tom Brady). I still expect it to be a one-score game, but I think Tampa will win by 3-4 points, thus covering.
The team that ends a losing streak but doesn’t cover: Colts over Jaguars
The Jaguars looked like they had improved since last year, but I was still a little disappointed in their effort at the end of their loss to the Commanders. The Colts were the opposite, and couldn’t get anything going until late in their comeback tie (kind of an oxymoron, but let’s go with it), against the Texans.
Maybe at this point, the Jags have a psychological edge when they host the Colts, but if this matchup comes down to the final quarter, which I think it will, then Indy has the talent advantage to come out on top. Plus, Matt Ryan has never lost to Jacksonville. I’ll guess the final score will be by fewer than three points, so if it’s decided by a field goal, hopefully Frank Reich makes a good choice on his new kicker … whoever that is:
There’s no place like home
Unlike last week, most of the home teams are favored in Week 2. There are two, playing in their own stadium for the first time this year, that I want to highlight.
Home team that wins and covers: Eagles over Vikings
The other Monday night game this week will pit two 1-0 teams against each other. The Eagles held off the Lions, who were feisty but just couldn’t quite get over the hump, as they are wont to do. The Vikings started the Kevin O’Connell era off a perfect note, with a 16-point win over the Packers. The new-look Eagles secondary will have their work cut out for them trying to slow down Justin Jefferson this week.
But am I really supposed to trust Kirk Cousins on Monday Night Football, when the only team he’s ever beaten in that time slot has been the Bears? Nope!
Home team wins but doesn’t cover: Raiders over Cardinals
The Raiders and Cardinals are both 0-1, but the former was a lot more competitive than the latter a week ago. Although I have concerns about the Cardinals this season, I think they’re better than they played last week against the Chiefs. They can at least give Vegas a game, even if I’m counting on the Raiders to come out ahead, especially since Davante Adams will be playing in front of his family:
Here’s one more bet for the road: Adams hits the over on receiving yards (93.5) on Sunday.