NFL Week 1 picks, with a side of revenge
Expect the unexpected ... and a little bit of the expected, too.
The start of any NFL season is awash in both unpredictable and predictable outcomes. It was true in the Thursday night opener, when the favored Bills beat the defending champs … in a 21-point blowout in LA, featuring seven turnovers. I’m not sure many thought we’d kick off the 2022 season with a moment of silence (kinda) for Queen Elizabeth II, either.
On the other hand, we all expect to see Josh Allen run like he’s an anthropomorphic 4-wheeler, Cooper Kupp make a jaw-dropping catch, Von Miller collect sacks (and a couple souls in the process), and Allen Robinson get shunned by his quarterback.
If that pattern holds, and I have no reason to think it won’t, we’ll have a good mix of believable and unbelievable results this weekend once the season really kicks into gear.
That’s a helluva way to welcome back football, but it does make picking Week 1 games a bit tricky. For those who’ve been following The Post Route for a while, you might recall that I decided last season that I didn’t want to pick every game every week but instead highlight a few select matchups. I’m going to continue that same deal this year because it allowed me to enjoy the slate each Sunday more than I did when I was sweating about whether I got a pick right or not.
However, if you do want picks for all of the Week 1 contests, you can check out Christian’s column at FTW. I will also list the odds for Sunday’s and Monday’s games below, per DraftKings as of Friday (the favored team is in bold):
Ravens at Jets (+6.5)
Colts at Texans (+7)
Eagles at Lions (+4.5)
49ers at Bears (+7)
Steelers at Bengals (-6.5)
Saints at Falcons (+5.5)
Browns at Panthers (PK)
Patriots at Dolphins (-3.5)
Jaguars at Commanders (-2.5)
Giants at Titans (-5.5)
Chiefs at Cardinals (+6)
Packers at Vikings (+1)
Raiders at Chargers (-3.5)
Buccaneers at Cowboys (+2.5)
Broncos at Seahawks (+6.5)
That’s a lot of home underdogs! Surely some of them will pull an upset, right? Let’s start there.
Upset watch in the NFC North
All three NFC North teams playing at home this weekend are projected to lose. I’ll go out on a limb, though, and say that one of them will start the season 1-0.
Upset pick I want to make but would just regret it if I did: Packers vs. Vikings
In the past week, I might have talked myself into the Vikings being a bit of a sleeper. New coach, new offense, healthy defense! But I should probably know better by now because whenever I have expectations of the Vikings, they disappoint. I also think the Packers, while still deserving to be the NFC North favorite, could take a step back, thanks in part to an inexperienced wide receiving corps that Aaron Rodgers is trying to bully into playing well. And I should probably know better by now than to doubt the Pack.
These two rivals have split the series each of the last two seasons, however, so I wouldn’t be surprised if Minnesota wins at home, especially with Allen Lazard listed as doubtful. I’m just not brave enough to pick it.
Upset pick I will make … and still might regret it: Eagles vs. Lions
What I am brave enough (or dumb enough) to do is take the Lions this week. I think the Eagles will be fairly good this year and the Lions are still rebuilding. I just want something to go the Lions’ way, even though it rarely does!
I don’t expect an upset, but I do expect a cover: 49ers vs. Bears
Last October, the 49ers visited Chicago and came away with an 11-point win against an undermanned Bears team. Justin Fields didn’t have a great day throwing the ball and was sacked four times, but he ran all over the San Francisco defense to the tune of 103 yards on 10 carries, with a rushing touchdown to boot.
Even with a still-limited supporting cast, I believe Fields can have a better passing game this time around. Trey Lance, who didn’t play in this matchup a year ago, is also a big question mark. Will his preseason struggles carry over into the regular season?
Regardless, the 49ers simply have more talent, and I think they’ll get the W. I also think the final margin of victory will be closer than seven points.
Revenge is coming
We’re starting off the season with a big old dose of haterade. Several matchups will pit players against their former teams and/or coaches. Either way, someone will get a little revenge.
Closest we have to a Week 1 slam dunk: Ravens vs. Jets; Broncos vs. Seahawks
Due to Zach Wilson’s injury, Joe Flacco gets the nod as the Jets’ opening day starter. He’ll face off against his old team and the guy who replaced him as its quarterback. Flacco is a 37-year-old backup whose blindside will be protected by a third-string rookie, who gets the start because the 37-year-old backup left tackle is also out. In short:
The Ravens are relatively healthy and Lamar Jackson, without a contract extension, has a little something extra to prove. I feel good about Baltimore in this one.
On Monday night, Russell Wilson will begin his Broncos tenure against the only other team he’s ever played for, the Seahawks. Crazy stuff always seems to happen when the Seahawks are on Monday Night Football, but Geno Smith spoiling Wilson’s debut with the Broncos? That’s a bit too out there for me.
Do not bet on this: Browns vs. Panthers
Like Wilson, Baker Mayfield’s first game with his new team will come against the franchise that drafted him. This divorce was rockier than the Wilson-Seahawks one, though. While Mayfield is the kind of player who will invent reasons to be mad and then use them as motivation, he has a right to be miffed about how the Browns discarded him in their pursuit of Deshaun Watson. Watson, of course, will not suit up due to his suspension, so Jacoby Brissett will take over as the starter.
But the current Browns players have a complicated relationship with Mayfield too, and they want a win just as much. Mayfield’s play will be the deciding factor of which side will get bragging rights, and as Nick Chubb put it:
So yeah, if you’re the betting kind, I’d stay away from trying to predict anything that happens in this contest. If I had to pick a winner, I’d go with the Panthers, as long as Christian McCaffrey doesn’t suffer another setback. I can’t summon up any confidence in that guess, however.
Potential for a road upset: Jaguars vs. Commanders
The last time we saw Doug Pederson wearing a headset, he was Carson Wentz’s head coach. The last time we saw Wentz in the regular season, he looked like he was intentionally trying to lose to the Jaguars in a must-win game for the Colts. This time around, Pederson is Jacksonville’s new coach, while Wentz now plays for the Commanders.
The home team is favored, but the Jags should be a better team than the one that dunked all over Wentz in January. The Commanders are still without Chase Young, and Carson Wentz is still Carson Wentz. I think Pederson once again proves he can earn a victory without his ex-quarterback.
Goodbye, bad vibes
Recently, I looked at five teams that were not giving off good vibes this preseason. Two of them will meet on Sunday Night Football, which means one will welcome in the season on a much-needed positive note.
The road favorite should cover: Bucs vs. Cowboys
These two played last year in the kickoff game, and it was close: The Buccaneers edged out the Cowboys, 31-29, on a last-second field goal. This year, they’ll meet in Dallas and both have injuries at OL and WR that could hinder them in the opener. That’s not great news when there’s a 45-year-old quarterback on one side and a potentially limited quarterback on the other side:
But I can’t trust the Cowboys in a non-NFC East primetime clash, and I’m not about to pick against Tom Brady. I predict another close margin of victory but that the Bucs will win by at least a field goal this year. And the SNF cameras will pan in on a disgusted-looking Jerry Jones in his owner’s suite no fewer than three times.