NFL picks for a topsy-turvy Week 17
There have been quite a few changes across the league heading into the penultimate weekend of the season.
Every year as we careen toward the end of the regular season, there is a little uncertainty in the air. Usually, that concerns which teams will make the playoffs and where they’ll be seeded, as well as where other franchises will be picking in that spring’s draft.
That’s still the case this year. Five postseason berths remain up for grabs, and after Week 17 is over, that number can be whittled down to just one while as many as 10 teams could be eliminated from playoff contention (that’s probably not what will happen, fyi).
But this year, something feels a little different with only two weeks remaining. I’m not sure I can properly describe what that undefined feeling is, but I think it boils down to this: There seem to be more on-the-fly changes happening across the league as we close out 2022.
Right now, that mostly involves quarterback shuffling for teams both in the thick of and completely out of the playoff picture. This week has also brought major news of other varieties, such as a first-year coach getting the boot and a future Hall of Famer announcing his retirement.
We’ve already seen one quarterback switch in Week 17. Joshua Dobbs, just over a week after joining the Titans, made the first start of his career on Thursday night against the Cowboys. Tennessee sat quite a few starters to rest up for next week’s AFC South-deciding clash with the Jaguars and predictably lost to Dallas, but Dobbs acquitted himself well and will likely start again, this time against his former team.
Let’s take a look at the other matchups on this weekend’s slate, with the latest odds from DraftKings (the favored team is in bold):
Colts at Giants (-5.5)
Saints at Eagles (-5.5)
Broncos at Chiefs (-12.5)
Jaguars at Texans (+3)
Panthers at Buccaneers (-4)
Bears at Lions (-6)
Dolphins at Patriots (-2.5)
Browns at Commanders (-2.5)
Cardinals at Falcons (-5.5)
49ers at Raiders (+9)
Jets at Seahawks (+2)
Vikings at Packers (-3)
Rams at Chargers (-6.5)
Steelers at Ravens (-2.5)
Bills at Bengals (+1)
Last week, my younger cousin Hudson stopped by to make picks for every contest (and he finished with a winning record!). This week, I’m going to focus on the games that have featured a big change, either at quarterback or elsewhere. (Sorry, no Christian picks this week.)
The end of an era (QB edition): 49ers over Raiders
Derek Carr’s time with the Raiders is all but officially over. He’s stepping away from the team after being benched (I’m not sure I remember a quarterback doing this before Marcus Mariota a couple weeks ago, and now we have Carr joining the party). In his place, Jarrett Stidham will make the first start of his career … and it’s coming against the most fearsome defense in the NFL. Good luck, kid!
The Raiders haven’t been all bad this season; their -2 point differential ranks 12th in the league and is better than five teams that would be in the playoffs if the regular season ended today. They just haven’t been able to finish games, most recently on Christmas Eve, when Carr threw three picks against the Steelers.
Perhaps Stidham will have better ball security and Josh Jacobs will get a much heavier load than he got a week ago. But again, that’s a challenge against San Francisco, which ranks fourth in takeaways and first in run defense.
To make matters worse, the Vegas defense won’t have Chandler Jones and Denzel Perryman. The Raiders players will still have pride to play for, even as they struggle dealing with good guy Carr’s demotion. They better get used to playing without him, though, since he’ll probably be the Jets’ or Colts’ next quarterback.
The end of an era (future Hall of Famer edition): Falcons over Cardinals
J.J. Watt has been on a tear in recent weeks, recording three sacks, five tackles for loss, five QB hits, and a forced fumble in the last two games. He’s found that extra gear as the season nears its end, probably because Watt’s first-ballot Hall of Fame career is nearing its end as well.
As Watt heads into retirement to go make buddy movies with The Rock or whatever, the Cardinals are trying to close out 2022 on a positive note and send Watt out in style. Not that they’ve had much luck at that this season. They’ve dropped five straight, including Christmas night’s overtime loss to the Bucs, a game that even Mike Evans said, according to the Hard Knocks cameras, the Cards should’ve had.
Arizona likely would’ve won if third-string quarterback Trace McSorley had any touch on his deep passes. Or if that matchup had been on the road. The Cardinals are just 1-13 at home dating back to Week 8 of last season.
This week, they’ll be in Atlanta and perhaps without No. 1 WR DeAndre Hopkins, whom McSorley had trouble connecting with last week. As such, the Cardinals are turning to yet another quarterback, their fourth in the last four games:
The Falcons, as is their annual tradition, have one of the worst defenses in the league. They’ve also lost four in a row, and Desmond Ridder is still looking for his first win as a starter.
Ridder has had his moments, however:
He has a strong rapport with fellow rookie Drake London, too.
I don’t have a ton of faith in either team, but the Falcons have been more competitive overall: Every game in their current losing streak has been decided by one score. So I’ll reluctantly go with them.
Don’t expect a post-coach firing bump: Chiefs over Broncos
Nathaniel Hackett took the biggest L on Christmas since Marv sucked a few bricks, courtesy of Kevin McCallister. Taking over as interim coach is 67-year-old Jerry Rosburg, a former special teams coordinator. Will the Broncos be extra motivated and catch the Chiefs off guard?
As Andy Reid pointed out, new coaches can mean a different game plan, one that Kansas City might not be expecting. And just a few weeks ago, the Broncos gave the Chiefs a fight, easily Russell Wilson’s best game with Denver until he left with a concussion.
But yeaaaah, I’m just going to go ahead and pencil this in as KC’s 15th straight win in the rivalry.
The starter/backup/starter is up: Commanders over Browns
The Browns are, as they often are, in “waiting until next year” mode as they try to avoid another fourth-place finish in the AFC North. The Commanders need a win to stay in the driver’s seat for a wild card spot.
Carson Wentz is back in the starting lineup after coming off the bench last week, when unlike Taylor Heinicke, he did not turn the ball over. This week, he’ll face a Cleveland defense that’s not particularly adept at forcing turnovers — or anything, really. I guess its pass defense is OK.
Washington’s defense has backslid recently, but it has the horses to make Deshaun Watson look even more uncomfortable than he’s already looked since returning to the field. I’m siding with the better defense, while also acknowledging how little I trust this pick. I mean, Wentz staring down a critical game late in the season? What could go wrong?
The backup is up (again): Patriots over Dolphins
Both the Patriots and Dolphins are in a bit of a free fall. New England has lost four of five, including two straight “d’oh!” endings. Meanwhile, Miami is on a four-game slide and will be without Tua Tagovailoa, who is in protocol after suffering (and playing through again, wtf) another concussion.
Teddy Bridgewater is a capable quarterback, but the Dolphins haven’t been sharp on offense lately, at least compared to earlier this season. I don’t think a date with the Patriots’ stout defense will help matters.
Besides, when Bill Belichick is excited (I guess?), that doesn’t bode well for New England’s opponent:
The end of the revenge tour: Jets over Seahawks
Here’s another matchup between two teams that desperately need a win to stay alive in the playoff race. Both have fallen back to Earth in the second half of the season: The Jets have lost four in a row. The Seahawks have only won once in their last six contests.
I debated over this showdown more than any others this week. I think Mike White, now that he’s been cleared again, can provide the boost that Zach Wilson couldn’t, both in the passing and running game. And even as the offense has sputtered, the defense has done its job, allowing more than 20 points just once in the past seven games. That’s not a great sign for the Seahawks, who have only scored touchdowns in garbage time each of the last two weeks.
Although Geno Smith’s revenge tour — not his words — has been a success this season, he’s been in a slump as of late with a cumulative 83.9 passer rating in the past three losses. Injuries to playmakers like Tyler Lockett and Kenneth Walker III have also hurt the offense’s production. On the other side of the ball, Seattle is vulnerable to explosive plays and hasn’t gotten much pressure on opposing quarterbacks lately. That’s good news for White, and it could be why the Jets can rise from the dead, both offensively and in the wild card hunt, this week.