NFL Week 16 picks from my younger cousin
It'll be a Winter Wonderland across the league this Christmas weekend.
Growing up, I didn’t know anyone who loved Christmas more than my grandma. Every year for the holidays, we’d visit my grandparents and she’d have decorations strewn throughout the house, Christmas music playing on the radio, and a large Santa-type bag filled with presents waiting for each grandkid (because if there was anything she loved more than Christmas, it was spoiling her grandkids).
Something you find out when you’re older is that the holidays aren’t just for celebrating with your loved ones; they’re also for remembering the loved ones who are no longer with you.
I still see signs of my grandma every holiday season. The retro ceramic Christmas trees that have made a comeback. The Tis the Season fragrance at Bath and Body Works that I swear smells *exactly* as my grandparents’ house did in December, like a pot of cinnamon sticks simmering on the stove. My neighbor who has a Christmas goose statue on their porch, similar to one my grandma used to dress up in a Santa costume. I smile every time I stumble upon another reminder of my grandma’s love for Christmas.
It’s been almost 14 years since my grandma passed away, a couple days after Christmas. Almost exactly a year later, her great-grandson Hudson was born.
Hudson was a special guest picker for us a year ago, and I felt it was only appropriate to invite him back for the NFL’s Christmas week games. I think in my family, loving sports is an inherited gene, not just a learned behavior, but Hudson is still one of the biggest sports fans I know. And when it comes to the NFL, he bleeds orange and black — and, on occasion, white:
His Bengals are on the cusp of a second straight playoff appearance, one of four teams that can potentially clinch this weekend and join the Eagles, Cowboys, Vikings, 49ers, Chiefs, and Bills in the postseason field.
If Vegas is correct, then only the Bengals will accomplish that feat in Week 16. Let’s take a look at the latest odds, as of Thursday afternoon, from DraftKings (the favored team is in bold):
Jaguars at Jets (-2.5)
Bengals at Patriots (+3)
Bills at Bears (+8)
Seahawks at Chiefs (-10)
Giants at Vikings (-4.5)
Lions at Panthers (+2.5)
Texans at Titans (-3)
Saints at Browns (-2.5)
Falcons at Ravens (-6.5)
Commanders at 49ers (-7)
Eagles at Cowboys (-4.5)
Raiders at Steelers (-2.5)
Packers at Dolphins (-3.5)
Broncos at Rams (+3)
Buccaneers at Cardinals (+7.5)
Chargers at Colts (+4.5)
Before we get to Hudson’s predictions for this week, two quick notes. First, you can check out all of Christian’s picks at FTW.
Second, I’ll be including each team’s probability of making the playoffs, using FiveThirtyEight’s numbers based solely on the outcome of that matchup. It’s not a perfect science, since results from other games will inevitably affect the odds across the league. Still, it’s a fun exercise to see which teams will be helped most with a win, and who can be hurt the most with a loss.
Hudson’s Week 16 picks
I inadvertently recruited Hudson to weigh in on a particularly tricky slate of games, due to all the quarterback injuries and the winter storm hitting most of the country this weekend.
Thankfully, Hudson was up to the task. His picks are in bold:
Jaguars at Jets
Bengals at Patriots
Bills at Bears
Seahawks at Chiefs
Giants at Vikings
Lions at Panthers
Texans at Titans
Saints at Browns
Falcons at Ravens
Commanders at 49ers
Eagles at Cowboys
Raiders at Steelers
Packers at Dolphins
Broncos at Rams
Buccaneers at Cardinals
Chargers at Colts
I appreciate that he took a couple of swings (Seahawks, Colts), without overdoing it. Anything can happen in the NFL, but that looks like a solid group of picks to me.
Jags over Jets
Hudson thinks the Jaguars can continue their winning streak on Thursday night, thanks to the excellent play from Trevor Lawrence in recent weeks. Zach Wilson wasn’t *all* bad this past Sunday, but this basically sums up the QB battle:
Plus, the Jets have a seven-game losing streak in primetime games, dating back to 2018.
Playoff chances if Jaguars win and Jets lose
Jags: From 55 to 68 percent
Jets: From 21 to 8 percent
Bengals over Patriots
The Patriots are “on to Cincinnati” after their all-time derpy (and hilarious) walkoff loss to the Raiders. Hudson isn’t being a homer by taking the Bengals, either. They’ve won six games in a row and appear to be hitting their stride at the right time again.
Playoff chances if Bengals win and Patriots lose
Bengals: From >99 to 100 percent
Patriots: From 20 to 8 percent
Bills over Bears
The Bears gave the NFC’s top team a scare last week, but the Eagles held on for the win. The same could happen this week, except the Bears will be hosting the AFC’s top team this time. After allowing 188 rushing yards in wintery weather last week, Buffalo’s defense could have its hands full trying to contain Justin Fields. Still, the Bills are no strangers to playing in frigid temperatures and will be prepared for whatever lake effect conditions happen in Chicago on Christmas Eve.
First-round bye chances if Bills win: From 49 to 57 percent
The Bears have been eliminated from postseason contention
Seahawks over Chiefs
The Chiefs haven’t looked overly impressive in recent weeks, despite going 7-1 in the last two months. They couldn’t put the Broncos away until late two weeks ago, then needed overtime to beat the one-win Texans. Meanwhile, the Seahawks have also struggled lately, except they’re having a much more difficult time winning games. They’re 1-4 in their last five contests, all of which were decided by one possession. Kansas City, at home, is a double-digit favorite, but the Seahawks need the win more … and craziness tends to follow them wherever they go.
Playoff chances if Seahawks win: From 30 to 67 percent
First-round bye chances if Chiefs lose: From 39 to 7 percent
Vikings over Giants
The Vikings have already won the NFC North and don’t have a ton to play for right now, except to try to prove that they’re not frauds. They’re also fresh off the biggest comeback in NFL history and can use that momentum to perhaps keep the up-and-down Giants from clinching a playoff berth this week. Not that their odds go down significantly with a loss.
First-round bye chances if Vikings win: From 1 to … 1 percent
Playoff chances if Giants lose: From 86 to 81 percent
Lions over Panthers
Other teams have longer winning streaks, but compared to where they started, no one in the NFL is hotter than the Lions. Coincidentally, the last time the Jets won a primetime game, it came against the Lions in Sam Darnold’s NFL debut. Now the (latest) starting quarterback in Carolina, Darnold has been mostly fine since coming back from injury but got sacked four times a week ago in a loss. Don’t be surprised if Detroit’s revived pass rush — which sacked current Jets QB Zach Wilson four times last Sunday — makes life tough for Darnold.
Playoff chances if Lions win and Panthers lose
Lions: From 40 to 61 percent
Panthers: From 20 to 9 percent
Titans over Texans
The Titans will have to try to claim their third consecutive AFC South title without starting QB Ryan Tannehill. Rookie Malik Willis will earn his third start this season, with his previous win coming against, who else, the same opponent that he’ll face this week. The Texans have played more competitive football in the last couple weeks, but they still have just one win on the season due in part to their fourth-quarter woes:
Playoff chances if Titans win: From 46 to 51 percent
The Texans have been eliminated from postseason contention
Saints over Browns
Even before the forecast called for gusty conditions and a wind chill factor as low as -9, this had all the makings of a defensive battle. The Saints haven’t found any consistency on offense this season and will be without leading receiver Chris Olave. Meanwhile, Deshaun Watson is still shaking off the rust since entering the Browns’ lineup a couple weeks ago. Maybe that’s the reason Hudson went with the Saints — or because he’s a Bengals fan who doesn’t care for the Browns. Either way, don’t count on this game being particularly watchable.
Playoff chances if Saints win and Browns lose
Saints: From 2 to 6 percent
Browns: From 1 to 0 percent
Ravens over Falcons
Lamar Jackson remains out for another week, and the Ravens missed him last week in a loss to the Browns. Despite that, and despite Baltimore being Cincinnati’s direct competition for the AFC North crown, Hudson thinks the Ravens will win this week … because the Falcons are still the Falcons.
Playoff chances if Ravens win and Falcons lose
Ravens: From 97 to >99 percent
Falcons: From 4 to 0.4 percent
49ers over Commanders
The 49ers have the NFC West locked up and have hardly any shot at the NFC No. 1 seed. So right now, their biggest mission is getting third-stringer-turned-starter Brock Purdy as many reps as possible before the postseason. The Commanders will get a boost defensively from Chase Young’s long-awaited return, but it’s the offense that’s worrisome. Ron Rivera is open to switching back to Carson Wentz if Taylor Heinicke can’t turn things around in the red zone. That’s a tall task against San Francisco’s top-ranked defense.
First-round bye chances if 49ers win: From 0.8 to 1 percent
Playoff chances if Commanders lose: From 35 to 21 percent
Cowboys over Eagles
In these bitter rivals’ first matchup, the Eagles won at home against the Cowboys’ backup quarterback. The Cowboys will look to return the favor, now that Jalen Hurts has been ruled out. Dallas hasn’t been sharp the past couple weeks, but there’s no doubt Dak Prescott, who is 7-3 against Philly in his career, will be ready to go for this one.
NFC East title chances if Cowboys win: From 2 to 3 percent
NFC East title chances if Eagles lose: From 98 to 97 percent
Raiders over Steelers
On Christmas Eve night, the Steelers will welcome Kenny Pickett back into the lineup and will honor Franco Harris, who passed away almost 50 years to the day of the Immaculate Reception:
One more loss will guarantee Pittsburgh a below-.500 season. Hudson thinks Mike Tomlin can’t avoid a losing record this year and that his streak will end this weekend against a Raiders team coming off the most improbable of victories.
Playoff chances if Raiders win and Steelers lose
Raiders: From 6 to 12 percent
Steelers: From 0.4 to 0 percent
Dolphins over Packers
The Dolphins have lost three in a row, all to good teams. The Packers have won two in a row, both to bad teams. Can Miami get back on track on Christmas and spare us from another smug Aaron Rodgers postgame interview?
Mike McDaniel, save us.
Playoff chances if Dolphins win and Packers lose
Dolphins: From 72 to 81 percent
Packers: From 8 to 1 percent
Rams over Broncos
This Christmas Day game is the lump of coal in our stockings. Both teams have had forgettable seasons. The Broncos haven’t been able to conjure up much offense. The Rams haven’t been healthy and somehow keep getting more injured:
Bobby Wagner is still going strong, however, and could be the key to stopping former teammate Russell Wilson.
Both the Rams and Broncos have been eliminated from postseason contention
Bucs over Cardinals
The Christmas nightcap isn’t much (or any?) better than Rams vs. Broncos. But considering the Cardinals will be starting third-stringer Trace McSorley — and at home, where they are 1-7 this season — this was, presumably, an easier game for Hudson to pick.
Playoff chances if Bucs win: From 74 to 81 percent
The Cardinals have been eliminated from postseason contention
Colts over Chargers
The Colts are benching Matt Ryan again, this time for Super Bowl LII MVP Nick Foles. The Chargers can, if a couple results go their way, clinch a postseason spot this week. They’re also a perennially cursed franchise and have just one win — a 10-point victory over the Texans — that has been decided by more than one score. Even with the Colts’ primetime duds this year, I can understand why Hudson believes they can pull off an upset. Personally, I would not trust either of these teams.
Playoff chances if Colts win and Chargers lose
Colts: From 0.4 to 0.7 percent
Chargers: From 82 to 69 percent
Thanks again to Hudson for helping out with this week’s picks. Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays, everyone!