The edge of Week 17 picks
The penultimate week of the regular season is here. Will the Colts keep winning, even if Frank Reich himself has to suit up at quarterback? And will the Browns ruin Big Ben's final home game?
It may not always seem like it, but every year the NFL postseason looks different than it did before. For 31 straight seasons, at least four teams have made the playoffs that had missed them the previous year.
That streak could soon extend to 32 straight seasons and maybe as early as this week. So far, two teams in the playoff field — the Cowboys and Cardinals — will make their postseason return after a multi-year absence. A few others, including the 49ers, Eagles, Patriots, and Bengals, face clinching scenarios in Week 17.
If Vegas is correct, then three of those teams will officially punch their playoff ticket this weekend. Here are the latest odds, as of Thursday night, via DraftKings (the favorite is in bold):
Eagles at Washington (+3.5)
Bucs at Jets (+13.5)
Dolphins at Titans (-3.5)
Jaguars at Patriots (-16)
Raiders at Colts (-7)
Chiefs at Bengals (+4)
Giants at Bears (-5.5)
Falcons at Bills (-14)
Rams at Ravens (+4.5)
Texans at 49ers (-12)
Broncos at Chargers (-6.5)
Panthers at Saints (-6.5)
Lions at Seahawks (-7)
Cardinals at Cowboys (-6.5)
Vikings at Packers (-7)
Browns at Steelers (+3.5)
Once again, the availability of certain key players across the NFL, due to Covid and injuries, remains a question mark. We’ll do our best to take that into consideration as we break down select matchups in a pivotal Week 17. (If you’d like us to weigh in on any other games this week, please leave us a comment at The Post Route.)
Sarah’s picks
Although I was hardly resolute in any of my picks last week, almost all of them unfolded as I expected them to. I don’t know if I can recreate that Christmas magic, but I’ll certainly try.
You should feel most confident in these picks
For just the second time this season — and first since early October — the Patriots have lost two in a row. Then, they had the good luck of following up that mini-slide with a matchup against the Texans. Now, their next opponent is an even worse team: the Jaguars, losers of seven straight (the longest active losing streak in the league) who have scored just three offensive touchdowns in the last four weeks (none of them of the passing variety).
The Jaguars are pretty much the antithesis of the Patriots franchise in terms of success and stability. I don’t think they’ll suddenly stop being a clown/Khlown show anytime soon, and certainly not Sunday in New England.
Jimmy Garoppolo’s status is unclear after he sprained a ligament in his right thumb. If he can’t play, first-round pick Trey Lance will get the second start of his young career. Lance is 0-1 as a starter, but he played mostly fine in a 17-10 loss to the Cardinals in October. He also wasn’t asked to do a whole lot, either, which will probably be the case again if he sees action against Houston. The Niners are much more talented than the Texans, and the rest of the roster can carry the load, whether it’s a less-than-100 percent Jimmy G or the raw rookie under center.
I know the Texans, who trotted out a large number of anonymous practice squad players because of Covid, are coming off a double-digit win over the Chargers. That seems unlikely to happen for a second consecutive week, especially against a 49ers team that now knows it has to take Houston at least somewhat seriously.
I’m playing with fire by putting faith in those same Chargers to not only win this weekend, but beat a team they lost to just a month ago. I’m optimistic LA can rebound against Denver, though, because of two main factors: 1) the Chargers will have several playmakers back on Sunday while the Broncos have had to cancel practice due to Covid and 2) I get the sense that Vic Fangio trusts Drew Lock, who is expected to start again with Teddy Bridgewater still recovering, even less than I do.
I think the Chargers will be ready to shake off last week’s embarrassment and stay in the playoff picture. (Please don’t Chargers it up and make a liar out of me, k?)
You should feel least confident in these picks
On the one hand, the Colts are fresh off a win — their sixth in seven games — in which they were missing some defensive stars and their cobbled-together offensive line consisted of guys off the street and duct tape. On the other hand, they at least had their starting quarterback, who finally delivered in big moments, and that might not be the case this week.
We still don’t know if Carson Wentz will be able to play this Sunday. If he can’t, rookie Sam Ehlinger — who has never thrown a pass in the NFL — will start in his place against a Raiders team that has won two in a row to keep their playoff hopes alive.
Frank Reich has confidence in Ehlinger, though, and I have confidence in Reich, who is about as unflappable as they come:
(Notice the Pedialyte in front of Reich in that video. Either he had a fun time the previous night, or he’s just trying to stay hydrated and doesn’t care for Gatorade.)
Guys like Darius Leonard and Zach Pascal are back this week, and Jonathan Taylor is still around, so I like the Colts, even if they’ll need to start an inexperienced quarterback who seemed to regress each season at Texas.
I’m both impressed by what the Bengals have done this season and wary of believing in them too much. Every time I start to do just that, they fall flat on their faces (see: losses to the Jets and Browns after stomping the Ravens the first time; losing to the Chargers and 49ers after crushing the Steelers the second time). I want to believe in them this week — a Cincy win would make the AFC more interesting — and I think they have a roster capable of ending the Chiefs’ eight-game winning streak.
I just worry that this moment will be too big for them, and they’ll revert to their previous form of making too many mistakes that prove impossible to overcome. So I’m taking the battle-tested KC, even while leaving room that lets me dare to dream the Bengals will be up for this challenge.
If the Bengals lose, the winner of Steelers-Browns will still have a shot at the AFC North crown. Near the end of the broadcast of the Chiefs-Steelers game last week, Tony Romo predicted the Bengals and Browns would meet in Week 18 with the division title on the line.
Who to trust more: the often prophetic Tony Romo or Ben Roethlisberger’s total domination over the Browns in his career? I’m inclined to go with the guy who has a 25-2-1 regular season record against Cleveland, but I also know the Browns would love nothing more than to ruin Big Ben’s final game at Heinz Field.
Why these are potential upset picks
Though I nailed my upset picks last week, I wasn’t really going out on a limb by siding with the Colts and Bills. I already explained why I was, hesitantly, going with the Steelers on Monday night. I’ll take a little bit more of a swing with my other pick and predict the Cardinals will end their three-game skid, and halt their second-half funk, against the red-hot Cowboys.
While the Cowboys have won four in a row, none of those opponents had (or currently have) a winning record. They also could be due for a letdown after demolishing their rival Washington on national TV.
The Cardinals are in a slump and Kyler Murray has struggled in recent weeks, but his center, unsung hero Rodney Hudson, should return to the lineup. Murray and the team as a whole have performed much better when Hudson plays, and the offensive line will need to step up against the surging Dallas defense.
However, that unit hasn’t faced a quality quarterback since a Thanksgiving loss to Derek Carr and the Raiders. And the last time they went up against a quarterback with wheels — I’m using the term “quarterback” loosely here — they let Taysom Hill run for 101 yards (he also threw four picks). Murray is evasive and can throw, which presents a challenge that this Cowboys defense hasn’t really dealt with (the closest was probably Patrick Mahomes, but that was also a loss).
The Cardinals also need this win a lot more. Both teams have already made the playoff field, but the Cards have to grab some momentum before the postseason begins or else a promising season will once again turn disappointing in Arizona.
Christian’s picks
This is simultaneously a difficult and easy week to pick. Not a single game has a spread under 3.5 points. Four games feature a team favored by at least 12 points. This is, on paper, a disappointing weekend of football.
But it’s also Week 17, once the dividing line between success and failure but now, instead, merely the penultimate week before the playoffs are set. Must-win games abound. Who’ll be more motivated — a Chiefs team that’s already punched its postseason ticket or a Bengals team whose season could end next Sunday if they can’t topple Kansas City? Which teams are still fighting to keep their coaches employed, and who’s phoning it in in hopes of a new regime?
There are a lot of moving parts, and that’s before we get to the Ravens, who may or may not have Lamar Jackson’s late-season magic for a third straight week. Let’s get into it.
Pick I like the most
Indianapolis Colts (-320) over the Las Vegas Raiders
There are a lot of probable blowouts on the schedule this week. As much as I would have liked to drop the New England Patriots (-1400) over the Jacksonville Jaguars here, it felt kinda cheap. I do love what that matchup should do for Mac Jones’ confidence, however. The Jags generate pressure fairly well but have allowed a 100.5 passer rating in coverage. That’s a delightful get-right opportunity for a rookie quarterback in danger of spiraling out.
Instead, let’s go with a line that’s closer than it should be because of Covid-19. Carson Wentz is currently on the reserve list and will have to return multiple negative tests in order to play Sunday. If he can’t go, the reins will be turned over to Sam Ehlinger.
That’s the bad news. The good news is Indianapolis can win this game with Wentz, Ehlinger, Philip Rivers, or Peyton Manning at quarterback.
The Raiders will bring a top 10 rushing defense to stop Jonathan Taylor, but we’ve already seen him roast teams like the Patriots, Bills, 49ers, and Cardinals on the ground. They’ll back that up with a 25th-ranked passing defense, which will create opportunities for whichever underwhelming QB happens to be slinging passes that afternoon. Las Vegas gave up 295 passing yards to Ben Roethlisberger, whose throwing arm shares an exit velocity with a Nerf bow and arrow.
Even if Wentz/Ehlinger/Jim Harbaugh/whomever the Colts dust off stinks, it might not matter. The Raiders are 2-4 when giving up fewer than 190 net passing yards and 4-7 when giving up more than 90 on the ground. That’s a terrible combination for a team facing the Colts’ ground-based attack in Indianapolis.
Pick I overthought, so you should probably fade it
Cleveland Browns (-180) over the Pittsburgh Steelers
Two desperate teams and bitter rivals square off on a cold night after a rainy weekend has likely turned the perpetually-chewed-up Heinz Field turf into a bog. The Steelers have homefield advantage and a crowd who’ll be treating this primetime game like its last chance to see Ben Roethlisberger — probably because it certainly sounds that way:
Ah, dammit. Alright, let’s switch it up.
Pittsburgh Steelers (+145) over the Cleveland Browns
Pittsburgh has a ton of issues in 2021. Roethlisberger can’t make plays downfield. The offensive line stinks. The defense has plummeted like daily fantasy provider stock.
The Browns have issues of their own, including a limited quarterback and the lingering feeling the football gods have only built them up in order to shatter their fans more brutally and effectively (which would explain the Covid-19 outbreak that turned what would have likely been a pivotal win over the Raiders into a loss in Week 15). What better way to twist the knife than to steal their slim playoff chances — and keep the Steelers’ alive — with a Week 17 loss? How else could a season that started with this kind of irrational confidence:
possibly end for Cleveland?
Picking the Steelers isn’t an indication of their talent or ability, it’s an acknowledgement of the swirling systems about to set down upon western Pennsylvania and unleash a perfect, disgusting storm of garbage. The Browns are the better team. They should win this game. But nearly every off-field factor seems to be working in Pittsburgh’s favor.
Well wait, except the one where Myles Garrett may have kinda/sorta told us he plans to physically disable Ben Roethlisberger.
Crap. Can’t bet against a ritualistic murder.
Cleveland Browns (-180) over the Pittsburgh Steelers
No, no, won’t do it. Garrett is only one man. One man who could have five sacks Monday night, but it would be an extremely Cleveland situation for one All-Pro talent to shine while the rest of his team collapses around him. That was basically the crux of Joe Thomas’ whole career.
Let’s flip it again.
Pittsburgh Steelers (+145) over the Cleveland Browns
Yeah, that’s the ticket. Besides, who am I to tempt the football gods? I’ve seen what they’ve done to the Browns. I’m good.
Upset pick I like the most
Baltimore Ravens (+180) over the Los Angeles Rams
Looking at the last four weeks makes this pick look very, very dumb. The Rams have righted their ship after a winless November, going 4-0. The Ravens ran in the opposite direction, going 0-4 with three losses to division rivals.
But this game is a battle of who needs it more. Los Angeles has locked down a playoff spot and would hold a 58 percent chance to win the NFC West even with a loss in Week 17. Baltimore is in danger of sliding out of the postseason race entirely. The man capable of changing all that, former MVP Lamar Jackson, is slated to make his return after missing the bulk of the last three weeks.
Jackson’s sprained ankle isn’t 100 percent, which is a scary statement for a quarterback whose game is decidedly run-heavy but especially so when he’s got to face Aaron Donald for 60 minutes. He limped through Wednesday’s practice and sat out Thursday’s. If he can’t play, this pick gets a lot, lot bleaker.
While Jackson’s playoff resume is thin, the waning weeks of the regular season is typically where he’s done his best work. He’s never lost a game as a starter after Week 13 in the NFL, leading the Ravens to back-to-back-to-back postseason bids in the process.
Losing to the Rams would dash both those streaks. While he may have been rushed back to practice, he’s doing so because he knows the season hangs in the balance. He’s risen to meet high stakes like these in the past; his 112.4 passer rating over the final four weeks of the season is higher than any other four-game stretch in his career.
Los Angeles is on a four-game heater, but the only team it’s beaten in that stretch that’s currently in a playoff position is the suddenly freefalling Cardinals. Playing Baltimore, in Baltimore, is a tough proposition. The Ravens’ fifth-ranked rushing defense should be able to handle the Rams’ running game. The question now is whether Matthew Stafford can slow his descent to “below-average quarterback” in time to take advantage of Baltimore’s leaky secondary.
I’m betting against it.